Ukraine

[alive]

YouTube, Twitter, Facebook. All blocked.

Tinder still works, thankfully.

[ötzi]

And a third of the country still worships him. The fact that he’s still alive is proof there’s no deep state. What a despicable horrible sub human asshole.

If Putin goes down hard we may find out how a lot of things are connected. I really hope he bites the dust and Navalny takes over.

[::: :::]

Maybe some stray Novichok finds its way into Vlad’s espresso…


Could happen…

[ötzi]

A smart guy I know tells me this is mostly about Ukraine's untapped gas deposits under the black sea. i.e. the war's mostly just about money. If Ukraine joined the EU and brought those reserves online they would compete very strongly with Russian gas.

Russia felt their gas dominance gave them an effective lever on Europe and didn't want to compete with cheaper gas from an EU member state. The first effort to bring the gas to market ended in 2014 with Russia's attack on Crimea and planning for the second effort was underway.

From a year ago (with a prescient headline): https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...-battleground/

edit: to give some shape to the numbers in the article, Russian gas reserves are estimated at 1.7trillion cf and proven global reserves are ~ 7 trillion.

[frorider]

Certainly some pundits have been including gas reserves as one reason for the invasion—might be in the links I’ve posted earlier in the thread—but it’s also pretty clear that Putin was butthurt by the EU/NATO direction Ukraine was taking.

https://hir.harvard.edu/ukraine-energy-reserves/amp/

[Hood26]

74% of Americans are in support of No Fly.

Z pulled no punches in his criticism of NATO today.

Z is meeting with whole of US Senate tomorrow.

[Flyoverland Captive]

I work with, or rather did, many Russian and Ukranian artists through online workshops and classes but this last week they have all gone silent.

My friend in Moscow warned me this morning that FB Messenger was going offline; he suggested using the Telegram app. I just reached out, no response.

[summit]

74% of Americans are in support of No Fly.

Z pulled no punches in his criticism of NATO today.

Z is meeting with whole of US Senate tomorrow.

I've always wondered if Russia's nuclear arsenal just doesn't work for shit... but I've never wanted to see that thought tested.

[Mazderati]

There is untold cost and risk with intervention but the same is true in doing nothing. Zelenskyy has been the leader we ask other leaders to be. Ukrainians have been the people we want others to be. What does ii say when the world is willing to let them die.

[summit]

It means that nuclear deterrence is the ultimate arbiter of peace.

If we voluntarily join a war on the side of a friendly but non-treaty ally and engage in direct combat with a nuclear power, then we will live in interesting times in the most negative Chinese proverbial sense.

So what is the right choice after we make the right choice to fight on the side of Ukraine? Shall we skip to the chase? The Russians will eventually escalate to nuclear.

"If prior to this time, we have done nothing further to suppress their retaliatory capabilities, we will suffer ... Now, five, if on the other hand, we were to immediately launch an all out and coordinated attack on all their airfields and missile bases we'd stand a damn good chance of catching 'em with their pants down ... an unofficial study which we undertook of this eventuality, indicated that we would destroy ninety percent of their nuclear capabilities. We would therefore prevail, and suffer only modest and acceptable civilian casualties from their remaining force which would be badly damaged and uncoordinated."



"we are rapidly approaching a moment of truth both for ourselves as human beings and for the life of our nation. Now, truth is not always a pleasant thing. But it is necessary now to make a choice, to choose between two admittedly regrettable, but nevertheless *distinguishable*, postwar environments: one where you got twenty million people killed, and the other where you got a hundred and fifty million people killed. ... I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks."

I find it odd that I am the dove here... so here is some Regan for ya: "every lesson history tells us that the greater risk lies in appeasement"

[MTT]

Clearly this dumb fuck didn’t get my memo.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., was sharply criticized by fellow lawmakers on both sides of the aisle Thursday after saying that the "only way" to end the crisis in Ukraine is for Russians to assassinate President Vladimir Putin.


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I actually can’t stand Lindsey Graham. But he didn’t say anything many haven’t said or thought. Including myself. Meanwhile the tv says there have been 3 foiled attempts to assaseninate Zollensky

[altacoup]

74% of Americans are in support of No Fly.

Z pulled no punches in his criticism of NATO today.

Z is meeting with whole of US Senate tomorrow.

There was also majority support for Iraq. A no fly zone would guarantee WWIII. After this, every despot in the world will be scrambling for nukes. Proves it’s the only way to defend yourself from NATO. Maybe the human race will greatly accelerate climate change with nuclear war. Hope not.


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[leroy jenkins]

I know it was all a hoax and whatnot, but it's crazy that while Trump's 2016 campaign manager was working for free he was also a highly paid pro-Kremlin consultant working on a plan to carve up Ukraine. Crazier still that same campaign manager was later caught up in a criminal investigation, agreed to cooperate, only to later back out, and was then pardoned by the President for his crimes.

Is this all for reallz? Huh. howbowdat.

[leroy jenkins]

I've always wondered if Russia's nuclear arsenal just doesn't work for shit... but I've never wanted to see that thought tested.

If theres a place to cut corners, if not on safety, then its there. If you ever need the things the world is fucked anyways. Doesn't really benefit you to have them actually working vs have people think they do.

[summit]

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...air-operations

Interesting... or perhaps the Russians are saving their planes for NATO

[Hood26]

There was also majority support for Iraq. A no fly zone would guarantee WWIII. After this, every despot in the world will be scrambling for nukes. Proves it’s the only way to defend yourself from NATO. Maybe the human race will greatly accelerate climate change with nuclear war. Hope not.


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I didn’t draw a conclusion I just dropped in some facts. This upcoming meeting begs a whole shit ton of questions and an emphatic “yes! It is “interesting times.”

The US hasn’t declared war since 1942. Congress has never declared war without the full support and usually the initiative of the President. Biden has said “No” on the No Fly, he won’t go back on that even with a declaration of war, but presumably a deceleration of war will be returned in kind? Could Congress go for a limited declaration of war ( it’s a thing) and say nukes are off the table, but would Russia actually believe that. What if Senate goes for war, will the house follow? Only Biden can command the troops, so how would that go with a president that didn’t want a hot war? What about the rest of NATO, they might just sit it out because the US wasn’t attacked, it declared war? Meanwhile fucking Putin and his bootlickers might just see the whole Z meeting with the Senate as enough for them to start their own declaration ball rolling.

Z is a charasmatic dude, I don’t know what the fuck could happen.

This is getting fucking nuts, thus I haven’t tossed my own opinions and conclusions and “shoulds” into the mix. I ain’t that good an arm chair QB or the color commentator even. I am just calling some play by play.

Tomorrow will be too interesting of times.

[highangle]

A smart guy I know tells me this is mostly about Ukraine's untapped gas deposits under the black sea. i.e. the war's mostly just about money. If Ukraine joined the EU and brought those reserves online they would compete very strongly with Russian gas.

Russia felt their gas dominance gave them an effective lever on Europe and didn't want to compete with cheaper gas from an EU member state. The first effort to bring the gas to market ended in 2014 with Russia's attack on Crimea and planning for the second effort was underway.

From a year ago (with a prescient headline): https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...-battleground/

edit: to give some shape to the numbers in the article, Russian gas reserves are estimated at 1.7trillion cf and proven global reserves are ~ 7 trillion.

More than 45 TCF of combined contingent gas resource and reserves
discovered on the North Slope to date, including Prudhoe Bay, Point
Thomson, existing oil fields, Burger Field, and Foothills gas accumulations
•North Slope gas potential is largely under-explored due to lack of existing
outlets to world gas markets
•Recent assessments by USGS estimate over 200 TCF (mean) of
undiscovered, technically recoverable conventional gas resources in
Arctic Alaska
•Methane hydrates and shale gas could potentially add 100s of TCF in
future North Slope gas resource

http://dnr.alaska.gov/commis/Present..._Sept_2016.pdf

[Dexter Rutecki]

It may be true that this is mostly about natural resources. I just can't get my head around the idea of killing people over that. It's not like Russia faces existential collapse without Ukraine's gas. Just hard to believe they're destroying cities and killing thousands of people for any of these reasons.

[billyk]

Here’s another incident involving SKY News. Looks more real than the other one, but who knows?

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/sky-n...-week-12557585

[Cono Este]

We’ve seen a lot of war from a distance in our lives, this is a war that can come knocking fast if we make a mistake.








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[highangle]

It may be true that this is mostly about natural resources. I just can't get my head around the idea of killing people over that. It's not like Russia faces existential collapse without Ukraine's gas. Just hard to believe they're destroying cities and killing thousands of people for any of these reasons.

They're doing it for Duginism - to make Russia great again.

[Dexter Rutecki]

They're doing it for Duginism - to make Russia great again.

No, I mean, of course I've heard that explanation as well. Vlad's imperial project, or whatever. Still just don't get it...didn't the USSR give it their best shot to Russify Ukraine already??

[AdironRider]

It may be true that this is mostly about natural resources. I just can't get my head around the idea of killing people over that. It's not like Russia faces existential collapse without Ukraine's gas. Just hard to believe they're destroying cities and killing thousands of people for any of these reasons.

Are you really this obtuse?

People have been killing each other over which magic man in the sky is better since the beginning of time and the concept of doing so for actual commodities that hold value is lost on you?

[ill-advised strategy]

It may be true that this is mostly about natural resources. I just can't get my head around the idea of killing people over that. It's not like Russia faces existential collapse without Ukraine's gas. Just hard to believe they're destroying cities and killing thousands of people for any of these reasons.

I agree on one level, on another level, zoomed out in time and space, it’s so common for some douche to be getting absurdly wealthy on the suffering of a large group of people, or despite the suffering or death of people. So common.

[riser4]

You are missing the fact that the US did have good reason to invade Iraq. Its just that the good reasons turned out to be false.

Ya. No. We did not have a good reason. Otherwise we should invade Israel for the same reasons. Full stop.