Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**gratzo** · 12-22-2011, 09:39 AM

Forecast was about right. Highest amount in the state was 32" at 9,000ft up Coal Creek Canyon (south of Nederland). Unless it's a whopper of an upslope storm (i.e. March 2003), the foothills around 8,000-9,000ft will get more snow than the divide locations of Eldora and Loveland.

Dry and warmer through the weekend. Valleys will stay cold, mountain slopes will warm. Could get a storm Wed/Thu, but models are unsure if it stays too far north. Also, I'm not a pessimist, but I'm not excited about some magical pattern change on January 1st. The models have had NO SKILL in forecasting such a change over the last 4 weeks, and now they're rescinding their earlier forecast and going back to a ridge for early January. Hope for the best, plan for blower powder days in Evergreen.

**Shredhead** · 12-22-2011, 09:48 AM

Originally Posted by knumbskull

And 3" at Highlands. Highlands is in rough shape but the coverage is a lot better at Snowmass from my experience.

Aspen Mountain skis the best in low tide. The 7" at Snowmass would provide some good low angle noodling.

**Lindahl** · 12-22-2011, 10:08 AM

Hey Joel, how do the summit resorts stack up to the foothills in a total snowfall deathmatch this year?

**montanaskier** · 12-22-2011, 10:48 AM

Everyone else is saying the pattern changes this week and the ridge breaks down except you Joel. I don't think anyone is saying there is anything magic about the 1st but forecasts have shown the ridge breaking down and the westerlies punching thru (although staying north). When I posted last week that it would be middle or end of Jan before a change you didn't agree with that but you don't agree that a change is coming now either. What is your stance on this pattern? Not now, not later, .....never?

**garuda** · 12-22-2011, 11:42 AM

<<<MS butthurt meter redlining>>> (I think Joel's position is he doesn't have a position as he is not in the business of "long range" forecasting)

In other news, looking forward to reports from the lucky ones who made it through the snomageddon down here, through the deepter in the foothills, and skied Bert or the east slopes of the front range today. Let us know!

**BDKeg** · 12-22-2011, 11:54 AM

Originally Posted by adam

Theres fucking two feet at my parent's house in Evergreen. CB doesn't get shit! WTF

yea we got skunked good. If we're lucky though the backcountry will pick up 3-6

**montanaskier** · 12-22-2011, 12:06 PM

1. If it snowed 48 feet last night, I couldn't ski today, or tomorrow, or Saturday. I can get out for about 2 hours on Sunday however. I also couldn't ski Monday or Tues or Wed or the rest of the following week. How much it does or doesn't snow has ZERO affect on my skiing.

2. I want it to snow because I own a business in this town and when it snows people come to town and buy shit.

3. I'm asking Joel what his opinion is, he doesn't have to get into long range forecasting to have an opinion.

4. Not stunned that PowTrees would be out slaying the groomerz if he wasn't sick...aww poor baby, you have a runny nose.

5. This is a weather discussion page....where we discuss....weather.

6. Profit

**PowTrees** · 12-22-2011, 12:17 PM

in case you didn't get a chance to read it, here's Joel's most recent article (about weather):
http://www.onthesnow.com/news/8/a/10...hens-it-coming

PS. imho it's better to be thankful for all the precipitation that comes down living in an arid environment. I'll try to do better ignoring the butthurt, even though I think it pisses off ULLR and jinxes our chances of a good snow year.

**BDKeg** · 12-22-2011, 12:19 PM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

2. I want it to snow because I own a business in this town and when it snows people come to town and buy shit.

not that my job depends on weather/tourism, but I would hope anybody that lives in the mountains/and or resort town would understand that people up here live by what the weather is doing. Nothing is worse than seeing no tourists on the mountain/restaurants/bars, ect. Here's to hoping January brings something special.

**Hott Butt Mud** · 12-22-2011, 12:27 PM

HAZARDOUS BUTTHURT OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
601 AM MST THU DEC 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS BUTTHURT OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD AND SUSTAINED BUTTHURT OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND MONTANASKIER
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXTREME HAZARDOUS BUTTHURT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MONTANASKIER BUTTHURT CONTINUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS RECOMMENDED TODAY AND TONIGHT TO MINIMIZE BUTTHURT CONTAGION.

**mfkracing** · 12-22-2011, 12:30 PM

I'm just hoping this turns in to 09/10 season. It didn't do dick at vail/BC until New Years Eve. After that it seamed like there was a big storm every two weeks. I don't remember quantity of days but there were some big high quality days.

**montanaskier** · 12-22-2011, 12:38 PM

Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud

HAZARDOUS BUTTHURT OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
601 AM MST THU DEC 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS BUTTHURT OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD AND SUSTAINED BUTTHURT OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND MONTANASKIER
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXTREME HAZARDOUS BUTTHURT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MONTANASKIER BUTTHURT CONTINUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS RECOMMENDED TODAY AND TONIGHT TO MINIMIZE BUTTHURT CONTAGION.

That was very funny when Rontele did it....you're not original

**Rontele** · 12-22-2011, 12:41 PM

Leave it to the fucking JONGS to ruin another one of my memes.

**knumbskull** · 12-22-2011, 12:44 PM

Rontele memes in jeans

**Hott Butt Mud** · 12-22-2011, 12:58 PM

THE BUTTHURT CONTINUES...........

**WTF is dat** · 12-22-2011, 01:33 PM

as promised, some backyard stoke from boulder.

picture is of me slaying the fucking gnarnia

funny thing is, im sure my turns were way deeper than anything vail has seen all season

**MJbumper1121** · 12-22-2011, 01:53 PM

^^^ the titz.

I am waiting for some JP style Cherry Creek edits up in this biatch.

**bamboocoreONLY** · 12-22-2011, 07:30 PM

breck ski'd stellar today! got my huck on in contest bowl off some 10/15 footers. no lines either which is weird for breck this time of year.

**gbob636** · 12-22-2011, 08:39 PM

Originally Posted by BDKeg

not that my job depends on weather/tourism, but I would hope anybody that lives in the mountains/and or resort town would understand that people up here live by what the weather is doing. Nothing is worse than seeing no tourists on the mountain/restaurants/bars, ect. Here's to hoping January brings something special.

I will spend my share the first week of January. Snow or not already paid....

**DaHeel** · 12-22-2011, 08:45 PM

Originally Posted by WTF is dat

as promised, some backyard stoke from boulder.

picture is of me slaying the fucking gnarnia

funny thing is, im sure my turns were way deeper than anything vail has seen all season

Sweet Monatanaskier steeze!

**gratzo** · 12-23-2011, 10:51 AM

There are two things that I focus on:
1) overall pattern
2) snowfall in Colorado

For the overall pattern, yes, it will change "somewhat" next week. By that I mean the storm track will come south from Canada and hammer OR, WA, northern ID, MT, and Jackson Hole WY through next week. This is not a massive shift in the pattern because the snow/storms will still stay to the north. But, it does mean that these areas will start seeing snow, which is awesome.

For Colorado, I'm not psyched. Because the pattern is only changing "somewhat", it's not coming far enough south to give me a lot of confidence in big snow for CO. If we get lucky and things sag south late next week, I-70 and north should get some snow Tue/Wed/Thu, with Thu being the best shot.

Beyond next week, I have no clue. The ensembles of the GFS generally show a ridge along the west coast out through 15 days. Now, this doesn't mean CO will be void of snow, but it does hint at the pattern staying mostly north of Colorado with a few weaker brush-by type storms affecting northern Colorado. That said, this is 10-15 days out, and I have only about 5-10% of trust in these type of trend forecasts.

Bottom line is that the pattern is somewhat changing and the northern states are going to see snow next week. However, the pattern is not changing enough to bring big snow to Tahoe or northern UT or CO next week.

I don't have stats for Boulder/Denver vs. Summit Co, but I bet it's close...

**montanaskier** · 12-23-2011, 11:20 AM

thanks Joel....at least the PNW, MT, and WY will start to get some. Sounds like CO will continue to be dry.......maybe late Jan we'll get some. Enjoy the warm weather this week!

**PowTron** · 12-23-2011, 12:47 PM

Originally Posted by DaHeel

Sweet Monatanaskier steeze!

He does lean back in a similar fashion from what I hear...

I am contemplating doing a Roxborough Skate Park session on the stunt sticks. It should be funny considering I haven't devoted much time in the park for the last 5 seasons.

**gratzo** · 12-24-2011, 10:40 AM

Well, things looking a bit more favorable for snow for central/northern Colorado next Tue-Sat. Not big snow from any one weak storm, but the total from 5 days of off and on snow could be good (a foot?). There should be enough moisture and jet stream energy to create snow, with good WNW winds. However, the one downside I see is the lack of cold air coming in with these storms. It will definitely be cold enough to snow, but without cold air moving in at higher levels, there won't be a lot of instability, which makes a good orographic wind direction more efficient at creating snow.

Bottom line - models are trending in a good direction, but I still don't have my hopes way up for massive snow totals. That said, Jackson/Targhee is looking interesting late next week:-)