Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[rider11]

says 4" in last 24hrs, 16" new this week that no one has rode yet. Thursday-Sunday will be great there, I'll be there for the weekend. Hopefully they open up to Billboard by then. Telluride got 8+", opened lift 12 and terrain under lift 6 today. Knee to thigh deep in places that haven't been rode all year. Hats off to ski patrol for ski packing stuff down and setting us up for this. Looks like Revelation Bowl and maybe some of Prospect Ridge tmw. Great day, face shots top to bottom. See you out there

[grskier]

You think it'll be worth doing a guided day on Saturday, or just stick to the unguided stuff?

[rider11]

if you know the mountain unguided. I have the unguided pass there, didn't make it last weekend, but opening weekend they had almost the entire mountain open. So if you have partners and know the mountain I don't know of too many zones they would take you too that aren't open, or a long ass hike. Maybe into Nightmare or something whacky. But if they open everything to unguided I would do that

[BDKeg]

got this from an accuweather blog showing the long range ECMWF model

[PowTron]

Well. They say 4' new in 24, but 16' in 48 and 72.

Maybe that 16' is also in the past 96 or 120hrs? Pretty mediocre snow reporting from them if you asked me. Really just wondering if that 16' has been skied yet....

If they got 16 feet overnight, I am quitting my job in the next 5 minutes

Otherwise, no it has not been skied yet.

[JaytaeMoney]

You think it'll be worth doing a guided day on Saturday, or just stick to the unguided stuff?

I have been to Silverton a few times but only once during the unguided season (January of this year) and I would definitely NOT recommend getting a guide if the unguided option is there.

Obviously this is anecdotal but the few runs our guy took us on that weren't open to the unguided skiers were nothing special, definitely not worth having to deal with someone telling you where to ski all day, potentially dealing with randoms in your group, and the extra $$ you have to pay for a guide.

Seems like this was all common knowledge too cuz the vast majority of people skiing that day were unguided. Every other time I was there I had a guide and it was sick so I booked a guided day, by the time my buds and I realized our mistake it was obviously too late.

[funkendrenchman]

got this from an accuweather blog showing the long range ECMWF model

Soooooo far out, but THANK GOD!

[brettf]

Joel, any thoughts to this? (posted in 2011/2012 Jackson Teton Weather/snow Thread)

Polar Vortex?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...x/ao.sprd2.gif

Where is that supposedly reliable Nina storm track? Ask the polar vortex, that grabby motherfucker.

The last few weeks, since the snow stopped, a positive phase Arctic Oscillation occurred that is approximate to the record for the last 60 observed years. The polar vortex, the pool of low pressure atop the globe, has literally sucked the northern storm track away from the lower 48. For the central rockies, potent low pressure in the polar vortex trumps typical La Nina jet stream patterns and turns our wet pinapple express into a dry alberta clipper that steers around us. We need the storm track to migrate south and displace the blocking ridge established in the east pacific. Unfortunate us, this trend does not yet show signs of significant weakening and the current prediction from NOAA is that the AO positive signal will reamplify back to near record levels over the next two weeks before returning to neutral or negative trend. If this forecast is correct, we can expect the current high and dry to continue into January because there is usually a 1-2 week lag from signal change to results in the lower 48. We'll get some modest snowfall here and there but the probability for a big multi-day system to fill things in is low until the AO flips negative and holds there for a week. Prolonged snowy weather in the mid-latitudes of north america correlates strongly with negative AO phase. If you got holiday plans for the Tetons (central rockies, in general), you might want to reconsider or, at least, leave your new skis/boards at home. Sure hope this is wrong, but it is hard to ignore the effects of such an anomalous factor like an AO positive phase 60 year event.

[montanaskier]

another 4" at Vail and 5" at the Beav. At least this week has brought something. The above sounds rather shitty, guess we'll just wait and see.

[MJbumper1121]

^^ Amen to that. We will take anything at this point...

[gratzo]

Re: Silverton reporting. I emailed Jen Brill about this. They have little/no internet connectivity up at the mountain, so reporting can be a challenge she said. Storm total is around 19-21", not skied til this morning. Enjoy it!

Re: the post of the polar vortex, as far as I can tell it's true.

Re: the ECMWF model for the next 2 weeks...I'm not holding my breath. Hopefully we come out of this pattern, and no matter, I'll stick to looking at the week ahead and not putting any money on the forecast further out because the models have sucked at long-range stuff this season. Cut-off and splitting storms seem to be hinted at through Jan 1.

Btw, just released our iPhone app! http://itun.es/iL22qR
- try it out
- if it works, give it a good review
- if it doesn't work, email me (joel@opensnow.com) and let me know
- it does 2 things: view/post pics to LiveSnow, and get push alerts for new snow or powder days
- to post to LiveSnow or get alerts, you need an OpenSnow.com account. Get one on the web before using the app
- I would have loved to get a full-fledged app out this season, but time/cost prevented that. So, the forecast, all reports, etc are all available on our mobile website which works on all smartphone browsers.
- The app is great to stay up-to-date on storms as you can view/post to LiveSnow and get snow/powder prediction alerts

Thanks for helping us out with good reviews or letting us know about bugs!

JOEL

[BDKeg]

another 4" at Vail and 5" at the Beav. At least this week has brought something. The above sounds rather shitty, guess we'll just wait and see.

4 inches at the resort in 48hrs here, 14 at irwin...the most depressing thing is that 4 inches will be 1 inch or less after baking in the sun for another 1+ weeks, lol

[funkendrenchman]

From our local weather guru....

I have looked at the models this morning and there are really no big changes to talk about. One quick mention concerning the extended weather pattern. It looks horrifically dry the rest of this month and I’m bowing to the weather gods everyday that this will change. I have been doing this a long time and this pattern is so atypical for a La Winter winter it makes me want to puke!! We have a slight chance for a minor change on Monday. The upper low that is now buried way down in southern Arizona will get kicked ENE by Monday. If it can come a touch further north we might be able to squeeze out a little snow. No promises yet because as usual there is no model agreement that far away. As of now I’m keeping it dry in the 6 day snow forecast but trying to stay positive as it could change. I will keep an eye on it!! Have a great day.

[montanaskier]

still looks like something around Christmas but that far out has been wrong almost every time this year. All the talk of the 10th, then the 17th, then Christmas....I doubt anything changes until mid Jan. Settle in and work on your carving.

this from NOAA sounds promising long term with the ridge moving but really really crappy short term

THE MID-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY THEN DIVERGE. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...WITH AN EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE FORCING PACIFIC ENERGY TO CLIMB INTO THE PACIFIC NW
THEN DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...MAY FINALLY START EVOLVING
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW...SPINNING NEAR SAN DIEGO...BEGINS
TO TRACK EAST. THE MODELS HAVE COMPROMISED WITH ITS PATH NOW
PROGGED TO SE AZ SUNDAY THEN LIFTING SLIGHTLY TO EAST-CENTRAL NM
BY MONDAY. THIS TRACK IS JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN-MOST ZONES. BUT
A SUBTLE N/S SHIFT OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE/LESS SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SPLITTING TROUGH DIVES SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH QUICKLY CLOSES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH
BRUSHES THE NORTHERN CWA WITHOUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE CLOSED
LOW WILL AGAIN KICK ACROSS SONORA-AZ-NM LATE WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER...PERHAPS THE FINAL...PACIFIC WAVE DIVES SOUTH. THEN
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE PROGRESSES ONSHORE
FOR POSSIBLY A DRY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.

[gratzo]

Next storm (after the one moving south of CO this Sun/Mon) will be on Thursday. Right now, looks like all of CO could see some snow. But this thing is splitting as well, and if it splits too far south and west, we're hosed. Ugh.

[Name Redacted]

gratzo, could you please just start making up predictions of massive storms coming our way? I mean, at least then we could get our hopes up and be in a good mood for a while before getting our dreams crushed by another disappointment.

[Wildman]

Joel- Good to see you last night. Hope you took home a nice prize.

I think I will be burn some skis this weekend...

[mfkracing]

You think it'll be worth doing a guided day on Saturday, or just stick to the unguided stuff?

No to hijack the weather discussion thread, but my last minute decision to guided, over unguided at Silverton yesterday was probably the best call I ever made. I was the only skier that wanted a fast group, so I got a guide all to myself. We crushed either closed terrain or accessed unguided terrain just before it opened. Lift line cutting and radioed in pickups were also a plus. Solid 18-24" out there, but got really, really warm. I'd say there snow report was right on.

[grskier]

We'll be there tomorrow.. it'll be a game time decision...

[SterlingSpikeDancer]

Weekend to do list.
1) Secure pics of red-haired wife for ULLR thread.
2) Burn old skis in sacrifice.
3) Route against 'Bama, just because (nothing personal montanaskier, I just fear that there could be leftover dealings with Satan that we are fighting).
4) Enjoy the beautiful weather on the Front Range and hit the Broncos game on Sunday.

I may not get the whole list checked off, but at least I will be trying. C'mon La Nina. At LEAST show up by New Years'.

[garuda]

How was Mary Jane opening today?

[FiveLarge]

What made you decide to go guided last minute?

I wouldn't worry about a hijack given the current weather situation. :/

No to hijack the weather discussion thread, but my last minute decision to guided, over unguided at Silverton yesterday was probably the best call I ever made. I was the only skier that wanted a fast group, so I got a guide all to myself. We crushed either closed terrain or accessed unguided terrain just before it opened. Lift line cutting and radioed in pickups were also a plus. Solid 18-24" out there, but got really, really warm. I'd say there snow report was right on.

[gratzo]

Quick article/graphic about the current storm track:
http://opensnow.com/blog/2011/12/wheres-the-snow/

In other news, there have now been 4 model runs that hint at a bit of a pattern shift around New years. This is still a 15 day forecast, so I trust it at about 1%. But, it does show the jet stream coming more west-to-east into the west coast, versus this cut-off BS we've seen over the last 2 months. I am NOT excited about this yet, but it does provide some Tebow-like hope that things will be snowier in January.

[montanaskier]

until it snows...I'm not buying it. Sounds like that high has to move inland first which would then mean a big Omega high and that would have to break down and move east before it could snow. We'll see....but we need like 3 or 4 feet just to get things kinda started.

from the Teton thread on the front page:

This is what the weather gurus are looking at. Prolonged snowy weather at the mid latitudes of north america correlates strongly with negative AO phase. As you can see, most of the models in the ensemble are predicting a return to high positive phase values for another two weeks. There's also a 1-2 week lag between changes in AO and results in the lower 48. As for significant pattern changes upstream of the Tetons, if the AO forecast is correct, it is likely that the high pressure ridge established in the east pacific will be the dominant feature in our weather for 2-4 more weeks. NOAA predicted a snowy december for the central rockies based on past ENSO patterns but the AO has been exerting the greater pull on the jet stream. Two weeks back AO was at +4 and if you look at the table of averages, you'll see how unusually high this signal is. Basically, NOAA's wet winter forecast for the Tetons is out the window while this is going on. The last three weeks have been proof enough of that for me.

Gonna be a very, very, very, long 3-4 more weeks at least it seems.

[RonMexico]

^^^ As always, appreciate the info, but that is really fucking depressing.