Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[gratzo]

Thanks, but as it stands, and you have a trip planned next week, what would you do?

Well, I have no idea what your goals are for the trip, so it's hard for me to give lots of advice. If you're sticking to Colorado and want to find lots of snow, Wolf/Durango/Silverton are the places with lots open and deep coverage.

Just updated the forecast after looking at last night's and this morning's newest models. Southern San Juans should once again get nailed Tuesday into Wednesday, and elsewhere around the central/northern mountains should do OK Tuesday night into Wednesday as the trough passes and the winds shift from southwest to west and west-northwest. For non-San Juan areas, Wednesday will probably be the freshest/powdery day to ski.

http://opensnow.com/state/CO

And yes, the next next storm on Friday/Saturday will once again drop west of Colorado, sit over Arizona, and bring most of the snow to the San Juans and maybe front range. The pattern cannot get un-stuck, and I don't see any massive changes in the next 5-10 days.

JOEL

[BDKeg]

yea looks like it, more like the southern front range. San Juans gonna get blasted, CB and Irwin usually do pretty well with the SW flow, better than nothing! The next one on Fri/Sat looks like another SW mountain storm too...maybe it's time to take a road trip?

[goldenboy]

CB and Irwin usually do pretty well with the SW flow, better than nothing!

I have found over the years that it's a game of inches with those SW storms for CB. If the track stays right on the CO/NM border, we can get skunked. If the track goes right through the SJ's, we can still do well even on SW flow. But W always stands for Win around here.

[bean]

Boooooooooo. I'm about to start getting as butthurt as montanaskier about the weather (if not more).

[BDKeg]

Boooooooooo. I'm about to start getting as butthurt as montanaskier about the weather (if not more).

I think we'll all be butthurt if we get another 2 weeks of high pressure after this week

[PowTrees]

It's always better if it's snowing or if big systems are headed our way. But if I had a wish, the storms would start December 29th or 30 with New Years Eve and New Years Day Big Powder days! While preparing for Christmas busy time, I can wait a few weeks for powder.

[montanaskier]

if it doesn't snow this week, we may not have a white christmas in the mountains. The valley floor has virtually no snow as it is and anything south facing below say 10k is totally void of snow. With a 2nd location for my business and my 5.5 month old, I don't have a ton of time to ski anyway, but snow makes everyone happier and is good for business.

this from snowforecast doesn't sound good: the large ridge that has been persisting across the western US is looking like it will be hard to break during the month of December.

[gratzo]

Good times for the San Juans. Wednesday should have a least a few inches for I-70 areas.

As for the long-term forecast, I've always noticed that the models are always too quick to predict a pattern change. And it appears to have happened again. At first, it looked like Dec 10 would bring a pattern change. Then Dec 17. Now it looks like around Dec 24th. Things will change, but this is the trouble with long-range forecasting. I also think there's a human element to this as well as forecasters constantly try to look for "changes" in the future while the current pattern brings a lot of inertia and is hard to crack.

[bean]

Guess I need to pack a lot more booze for my upcoming hut trip.

[Shredhead]

Thanks, but as it stands, and you have a trip planned next week, what would you do?

It's thin, but Aspen's skiing pretty dam good and there's a whole lot more shit to do in this town. Saw the B52's at the Belly Up Friday.

[funkendrenchman]

Good times for the San Juans. Wednesday should have a least a few inches for I-70 areas.

As for the long-term forecast, I've always noticed that the models are always too quick to predict a pattern change. And it appears to have happened again. At first, it looked like Dec 10 would bring a pattern change. Then Dec 17. Now it looks like around Dec 24th. Things will change, but this is the trouble with long-range forecasting. I also think there's a human element to this as well as forecasters constantly try to look for "changes" in the future while the current pattern brings a lot of inertia and is hard to crack.

In other words, we're screwed. Christmas week is gonna be aweful.

[Gregger]

In other words, we're screwed. Christmas week is gonna be aweful.

Yes. A WC trip may be in order if it doesn't snow up here soon.

[PowTron]

Yes. A WC trip may be in order if it doesn't snow up here soon.

Exactly my thoughts for the next big storm cycle...

[mfkracing]

I think the Wolf Creek and Silverton 1-two punch is more appropriate. Silverton Thursday looks deep on paper. Hopefully I can talk my usual ski suspects in to it so I don't fly solo.

[Lindahl]

Not too different from 2009? I seem to remember the skiing being pretty shitty until just around New Years. The rest of the year was pretty damn amazing though.

I'd be down for getting out to Silverton and/or Wolf Creek on Thursday/Friday.

[BDKeg]

Not too different from 2009? I seem to remember the skiing being pretty shitty until just around New Years. The rest of the year was pretty damn amazing though.

I'd be down for getting out to Silverton and/or Wolf Creek on Thursday/Friday.

hope you're right, this thread is getting down right depressing...I might just run through my whole stash of beer early that i brewed up for the winter.

[montanaskier]

09 was snowy starting the 1st week of December. We're still at about average, it just all fell really early and we haven't had any since then.

[cmsummit]

Headed to Wolf Creek for $33 tix on Wednesday. Forecast looks good for down there and I NEED to ski some powder.

[bean]

09 was snowy starting the 1st week of December. We're still at about average, it just all fell really early and we haven't had any since then.

Went back and looked at photos, 09-10 sucked well in to January. Not sure what I'll do to keep busy if this year is a repeat of that.

[cmsummit]

Went back and looked at photos, 09-10 sucked well in to January. Not sure what I'll do to keep busy if this year is a repeat of that.

that's what I remember. '08/'09 was snowy starting the first week of Dec, but that next season was forgettable.

[funkendrenchman]

Headed to Wolf Creek for $33 tix on Wednesday. Forecast looks good for down there and I NEED to ski some powder.

Thinking of doing the same.

In Dec of 09-10 we had 56", so far we have 7". It also snowed 14" the day before Christmas which saved us. But yea January of '10 truly sucked, but at least there was snow on the ground.

[bean]

that's what I remember. '08/'09 was snowy starting the first week of Dec, but that next season was forgettable.

Actually I looked one more time and you're right, 09-10 really just sucked outright. Loveland got a whopping 325" of snow the entire season, didn't even crack 250" until April. I miss last year.

I remember skiing a tree line at Berthoud Pass that year in late January that was just facets top to bottom.

[montanaskier]

you're right Bean and LIndahl...I went and looked at this thread and we didn't really get cranking until later but we did have more snow in December and November than this year....but we didn't have the October snow that this year brought...at least that is what I gathered from this thread. At any rate, hopefully it'll get cranking in time for our Jan. thaw

[gratzo]

Maybe I should get Tebow to run Opensnow.com. He'd bring the snow in the 11th hour.

By the way, starting to make a few short videos about the better features of OpenSnow. Calling it "Don't eat yellow snow."

http://opensnow.com/blog/2011/12/don...ted-forecasts/

[mfkracing]

CDOT cams are showing some impressive snow at Wolf Creek and Silverton.

A phone interview is potentially crushing my Wolf Creek plans for Weds. Does Wolf have good cell coverage at the base area???