50 years to the day

[summit]

CAgrown: Iran has some options, none of them good, but many of them less self-destructive than trying to close Hormuz. It depends if they want to gnash their teeth, beat their chests, and then make a token retaliation to save face and deescelate, or if they want to engage in pyrrrhic esclation that even IRGC sees as such. Iran's "best" option from a point of view based on their historic modus operandi would be to symbolically retaliate, deescelate, then rebuild some form of their proxy network while also attempting to clandestinely build a bomb and escalating their plausably deniable international terrorism.

[summit]

CAgrown: Why didn't the USSR give a nuke to any of their many of their communist fronts? Because they would assume it might be used and attributed and retaliated against. The USSR leaders were very interested in gains and winning, but their first goal was preservation of their lives and power. Even fat Kim. The risk/benefit for transferring a nuclear device to an irrational actor is beyond collossally unbalanced. This is why all the nuclear and non-nuclear powers, even the adversaries, engaged in efforts to combat nuclear proliferation, why the NNPT exists.

The only nuclear sharing isn't even shared. US/USSR "sharing" between NATO/WARPAC militaries just has a foreign unit trained to deploy nuclear weapons that are actually under the control and release authority of the US (and formerly the USSR) NCA. That is because DC and Moscow were never going to let even an ally dictate when to release a nuclear weapon that would be attributed to the actual provider of the weapon.

The US has always had attack options and plans to deal with Pakistan and NK in case their nukes were getting loose. It is scary dark shit. Even NK, the most aggressive sharer of nuclear proliferation, was careful to do it in a way that was huge steps back from handing over nuclear weapons or plutonium. They built the Syrians a plutonium breeder reactor insetad. Israel blew it up. NK knew if they tried to hand out nukes, they'd get nuked, and fat Kim really does like living. The fear with Pakistan is that non-rational actors (ie Islamic fundimentalists with a martydom/final battle mindset) could get control. The "story" is we'd try to nab them with special forces first, but if we couldn't, we would use any means necessary to neutralize their arsenal, assuming India didn't do it first.

[PNWbrit]

"martydom"

Is this slang for the Back to the Future franchise

[californiagrown]

or if they want to engage in pyrrrhic esclation that even IRGC sees as such.

At some point Iran has to show that it has some teeth. It's not a pyrrhic escalation/victory if Iran is able to hurt the western economy by temporarily curtailing the Strait's usuage by oil tankers. It shows that Iran actaully has some ability to bite back... something that they have proven unable to do conventionally over the last year.

The way things are going in Iran, it doesnt seem like there is much they can do to pacify Israel short of regime change or abandonment of their nuclear program. They really do not seem to have any more cards to play (no air defense, waning offensive missiles, decimated proxies), and Israel/Bibi likely see this as generational opportunity to squash their largest enemy, and a conflict that could take eyes off gaza and bibis legal issues at home. Why would Bibi stop now, unless pressured to by other western countries because of the economic impacts of hormuz being impacted?

[cat in january]

I am sure photographic and other evidence could clearly reveal Iran has a nuclear weapon. Iran has clearly demonstrated capacity to produce and field ballistic missiles.Trump always plays the strong hand because he has the capacity to back it up. What if China Russia and Iran colluded to have a monumental shift in world Politics. China could offer Saudi Arabia the best deal ever. The war in Ukraine would end with Trump folding for maga economics, Israel would finish mopping up Gaza and the new world order could settle in.Iran could delay a response until they had the weapon and then declare an end to any further action. Nuclear check mate with china, Russia and rest of the world saying no more war. Trump is no more war.I very much doubt it plays out that way. but the possibility is there and not only negates the US effort, it potentially leaves isolationist Trumps America shrunken.The situation is far from Iran falling on its knees

[highangle]

Israel just smoked the Basij HQ in T-ran when it was packed with high-level narcs and torturers and pelletgun snipers that shoot protesters in the eyes.
Hundreds buried like Kadyrovites... Apparently some honcho called a flash meeting of the brain trust at Informer Central and like good little rats they all showed up in their best uniforms.

Diplomacy by other means: Izzies systematically clearing the way for Iranians to take back their country.

[mcski]

They could also be setting the stage for endless Leeroy Jenkinstans martydumbing themselves in new ways and places.

[highangle]

What does AOC say?

[MultiVerse]

The Qatarlson crowd in Congress and the right-wing Keyboard Revolutionary Guard Corps have horseshoe settled on Iran has zero agency and therefore America is always and forever to blame for whatever happens next

[highangle]

This is not the hill to die on, nor to cheapen the word Impeachment to harvest clicks from Russian botfarms.

[J. Barron DeJong]

This:

This is ridiculous. The only reason America "had" to bomb Iran is because Trump torpedoed the diplomatic strategy of his predecessor. The alleged necessity of the war has been created by the despot currently waging it!
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...g-team/683283/

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelhobb.../3lsc3hybp422d

[MultiVerse]

Once again semi-literate Jong never bothers to read his own linked articles. The premise of his article is that striking Iran's nuclear weapons program was the right decision but that Trump went about it with the wrong team and wrong way, "Trump did the right thing, but he did that right thing in the wrongest possible way"

[mcski]

Trump wouldn’t have needed to bomb a thing if he hadn’t blown up the previous agreement with Tehran. Thanks Obama!


Best take I’ve seen so far - Trump was Vanity Bombing

[MultiVerse]

Nonsense. Iran violated Obama's 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported multiple breaches, including exceeding enrichment limits, increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium, and restricting IAEA access for inspections

[mcski]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[summit]

Iran not only violated the plan, but the critical components of the plan would have sunset this year anyway.

[JimmyCarter]

Trump wouldn’t have bought into vibes based intel if he wasn’t such an insecure pissbaby who needed to try and disprove the TACO nickname

[MultiVerse]

Still, Trump overrode Putin's veto. That's something

[J. Barron DeJong]

Iran not only violated the plan, but the critical components of the plan would have sunset this year anyway.

When did they violate the terms? Before or after Trump withdrew from the deal and reimposed sanctions?

And the plan sunsetting is kind of a non-sequitur, no? Like if everyone was happy with how the plan was working then there was a possibility to negotiate to extend it. But once Trump said fuck it, I am pulling out (because I will negotiate a much better deal), then that possibility for a further deal is gone. And now we are dropping bombs.

[MultiVerse]

Iran hid its past weapons research, disclosure was required by the deal, and also hid parts of its nuclear weapons program

[JimmyCarter]

Still, Trump overrode Putin's veto. That's something

Such a sad thing to have to agree with

[Meconium]

The war is over.......

[californiagrown]

Iran hid its past weapons research, disclosure was required by the deal, and also hid parts of its nuclear weapons program

If i remember correctly, prior to 2003, Iraq was very uncooperative with the IAEA inspectors and disallowed access to all kinds of its facilities. Turns out, that was likely to just keep up the illusion of a WMD program for deterence. But, playing shell games with IAEA inspectors is SOP for up and coming nuclear nations and doesnt necessarily imply an active weapons program, and probably shouldnt be the basis for armed intervention.

Seems like we are basically just trusting Israel and Mossad on this one. The USA would have NEVER bombed Iran if Israel hadnt started the war (even if we could have been certain the B2s would fly unchallenged). donny got manuevered by Israel into doing their bidding. Full stop. Maybe that is for the best, maybe its not. But donny got played like a fiddle.

[Meconium]

https://youtu.be/KN3nohBw_CE?feature=shared

[J. Barron DeJong]

If i remember correctly, prior to 2003, Iraq was very uncooperative with the IAEA inspectors and disallowed access to all kinds of its facilities. Turns out, that was likely to just keep up the illusion of a WMD program for deterence. But, playing shell games with IAEA inspectors is SOP for up and coming nuclear nations and doesnt necessarily imply an active weapons program, and probably shouldnt be the basis for armed intervention. Seems like we are basically just trusting Israel and Mossad on this one. The USA would have NEVER bombed Iran if Israel hadnt started the war (even if we could have been certain the B2s would fly unchallenged). donny got manuevered by Israel into doing their bidding. Full stop. Maybe that is for the best, maybe its not. But donny got played like a fiddle.

Again though, my question is when violations to the nuclear deal first occurred, because everything I have seen says they first occurred in 2019, after Trump pulled the US out of the deal and reimposed sanctions.

And the US sanctions implications are massive compared to some other signees, since a huge share of global finance touches US banks. Iran being cut off from US banking is close to being cut off from global banking.