50 years to the day

[californiagrown]

So, if i was Iran and my nuclear weapons program/stockpile had been lightly damaged or setback a few months due to this war why wouldnt i announce that it had been obliterated and i was now many years away from rebuilding up to the previous level. That would create a situation where they could continue the program under less public scrutiny, and ward off future involvment from the US because dumps & co. will never admit they were wrong, or that the strike was anything less than a massive triumph. Basically, publicly agreeing with trump and israel's most hopeful assessments would create a situation where additional military action by those two would appear to everyone as needless, war mongering overkill... that would give a nice safe bubble for Iran to continue/finish making a bomb or two.

By the same token, why didnt POTUS just giving a wry smile when questioned about the bombing and say "we are confident in our intelligence assessments and we are happy with the results". period, thats it. Seems like a confident, simple answer that tells america the strike was worth it, leaves little room for pushback, and would have put this all to rest.

[JimmyCarter]

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By the same token, why didnt POTUS just giving a wry smile when questioned about the bombing and say "we are confident in our intelligence assessments and we are happy with the results". period, thats it. Seems like a confident, simple answer that tells america the strike was worth it, leaves little room for pushback, and would have put this all to rest.

Because he’s the world’s most insecure fuckboi?

[MultiVerse]

So, if i was Iran and my nuclear weapons program/stockpile had been lightly damaged or setback a few months

lol, never let facts get in the way of your preferred narrative. I mean, given what we know at this point the DIA assessment is probably better understood as a psy-op made to look like an intelligence report

[JimmyCarter]

lol, never let facts get in the way of your preferred narrative. I mean, given what we know at this point the DIA assessment is probably better understood as a psy-op made to look like an intelligence report

What else do we know at this point?

An assessment from an Israeli government desperate to prop Bibi up?

“Israel’s military thinks the recent war with Iran has set the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program back by years, but the assessment is preliminary, and it is too early to know for sure, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Effi Defrin said Wednesday.”

[californiagrown]

lol, never let facts get in the way of your preferred narrative.

Wut? I dont think you know what the word FACTS actually means. We dont know many facts regarding the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program beyond their above ground facilities were crushed and we dropped some big bombs on their fortified underground facilities. We are all running off rumours, whitewashed preliminary intelligence assessments, and hyperbolic press releases. Its why i posted the What If scenario that i did...because we don't know.

[summit]

Why would Israel say its years delayed if another strike is needed shortly or there will be mushroom clouds?

I do know we are left speculating based on much less information than is known by the governments involved.

[MultiVerse]

What else do we know at this point?

An assessment from an Israeli government desperate to prop Bibi up?

“Israel’s military thinks the recent war with Iran has set the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program back by years, but the assessment is preliminary, and it is too early to know for sure, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Effi Defrin said Wednesday.”

Wut? I dont think you know what the word FACTS actually means. We dont know many facts regarding the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program beyond their above ground facilities were crushed and we dropped some big bombs on their fortified underground facilities. We are all running off rumours, whitewashed preliminary intelligence assessments, and hyperbolic press releases. Its why i posted the What If scenario that i did...because we don't know.

We know the International Atomic Energy Agency Director's assessment. And open source satellite imagery of the destroyed facilities. And DoD's assessment.

Which shows Natanz above-ground enrichment program completely destroyed, GBU57s did major damage at Fordow, Isfahan facility where the actual uranium metal for bombs is made destroyed, Isfahan's underground structures badly damaged but not destroyed. Thousands of centrifuges destroyed. Covert weaponization research sites destroyed. As well as Iran's first and second tier nuclear scientists killed.

Today, we also learned a first MOP was used to blow off a concrete covering for the vents at Fordow, then the remaining 5 MOPs entered the same hole. The other two holes are not penetration holes at all. They are holes caused by upward gas pressure through the main shaft, which then dispersed through parallel vents inside the structure. The force of the explosions blew off the shaft covers, causing fragments of concrete to be ejected at high pressure onto the surface of the mountain ridge. The mission only called for 10 MOPs with an addition 2 for backup in case any of the others failed to explode. All twelve worked.

So that's serious damage to the Uranium enrichment facilities' centrifuge cascades, centrifuge manufacturing facilities, other facilities where yellowcake is converted into hexafluoride gas for enrichment, weaponization research facilities, and facilities to take enriched uranium and turn it into metal. Not to mention how much of Iran's highly enriched uranium is buried or inaccessible (currently an open question).

[californiagrown]

Why would Israel say its years delayed if another strike is needed shortly or there will be mushroom clouds?

For a couple reasons i can see:

1) we threw the kitchen sink at Fordow. No bullets left in the chamber besides ground war. If we dont claim a complete win now, it comes off as a fail because they took our best shot and kept on ticking and all this war accomplished was putting more urgency into the Iranian nuclear weapons program. If Iran was smart, they would just agree like i alluded to earlier.

2) Bibi is on trial for corruption, public support for his handeling of gaza is waffling, and he started a war with Iran that resulted in a fortnight of Iranian missiles landing in Israel. He needs a win to boost support, even if claiming that win prematurely before the full story is known. Remember dubbya and the Mission Accomplished banner? Claiming a big win now buys his political life time that he desperately needs. Objectively the guy loves power more than anything.

Lots of unknowns at this point, and having a POTUS with a decade of ridiculous hyperbole, misinformation who also coined the term Alternative Facts does not lend itself to me taking what he says at face value.

[MultiVerse]

I don't think you understand the new strategic reality. Both Israel and the United States have said in the event Iran restarts its nuclear weapons program they will hit again. That's a paradigm shift. For years Iran operated under the assumption that Israel would never be able to attack its nuclear weapons sites from the air

[summit]

I agree with MV. If you think the US has no more tools to disrupt the Iranian weapons program short of a full scale ground invasion, you are unaware of our capabilities or unwilling to consider them.

I absolutely think we'd us a nuclear weapon to destroy an Iranian nuke before we'd commit to a major invasion. Luckily we have tools short of a shiny new (refurbed) B61-13

[J. Barron DeJong]

You think we would nuke them to prevent them from BUILDING a nuke, or from LAUNCHING a nuke?

[MultiVerse]

There will never be a ground invasion of Iran under President Trump. Nukes are highly, highly unlikely. Is this it? Probably not. Israel will likely retain air supremacy. Israel will monitor Iranian nuke activity and so Iran will have to focus first on its air defenses before it can scale up a big industrial project. Iran does have a new deeper enrichment facility but that only gets you so far. There's a lot more that goes into producing nuclear bombs. What we can probably expect instead is Iranian terrorist attacks. They've been attacking Americans for almost 50 years

[Cono Este]

That’s an amazing payload for the b2. This sends a big message. I have no,
idea of the air defenses the IAF defeated, but they didn’t lose a plane. Must be some Russian or Chinese crap.

[Bunion 2020]

CE says:

I have no, idea

[Cono Este]

I love the semantics. Trump just brought Arab nations together, got permission to take out irans nuclear program, let the Israelis break trail then snaked the best line under the chair for first tracks.

Meanwhile, we can’t talk about Abbey Gate or the family 5 in the hatch back we mistakenly droned.

[PB]

CE has tremendous potential in stand up comedy.

[J. Barron DeJong]

For sure:

https://youtu.be/3bj8LTWtaeI?si=T0DEFWATPQ30v9M0

[Cisco Kid]

I heard Guy Benson today bemoan the fact that the past POTUSs have not expressed their opinions on donnies dooms day party. Like he was a king or something. Fact check me but it would be a first. It is contrary to the democratic norms created for the good of the office. A POTUS is guided not to meddle with the current POTUS. Or was anyway.

[neufox47]

[emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji638][emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]]The west could also invade Iran.

That’s the regime change option. I dont really think you can regime change via assassination. The replacements will likely be of the same regime.

[highangle]

That’s the regime change option. I dont really think you can regime change via assassination. The replacements will likely be of the same regime.

If you can create a power vacuum and position allies to fill it...Bob's your uncle.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Israeli soldiers in Gaza told Haaretz that the army has deliberately fired at Palestinians near aid distribution sites over the past month.

Conversations with officers and soldiers reveal that commanders ordered troops to shoot at crowds to drive them away or disperse them, even though it was clear they posed no threat.

The soldier added, "We open fire early in the morning if someone tries to get in line from a few hundred meters away, and sometimes we just charge at them from close range. But there's no danger to the forces." According to him, "I'm not aware of a single instance of return fire. There's no enemy, no weapons." He also said the activity in his area of service is referred to as Operation Salted Fish – the name of the Israeli version of the children's game "Red light, green light".

https://archive.ph/2025.06.27-064602...f-ffbe33780000

[The Nuclear Option]

Is this the bickering conjecture thread

[MultiVerse]

Iran is incredibly effective at repression. Still, the Iran-Israel war means there's going to be a new younger cadre of leadership in Iran. The senior Iranian officers killed were the most fervent supporters of the regime. First they fought Saddam then they fought Americans in Iraq. They killed thousands of Americans ostensibly as Iraqis but in reality, Iranians. They dominated the military establishment. Now they're gone.

This a wait and see situation. New players will be on the field. It could be a new era of Iranian policy. Whoever fills the power void will control how the regime operates and pursues strategy in the Middle East.

[Bunion 2020]

If you can create a power vacuum and position allies to fill it...Bobs your uncle.

Because that gambit has worked so well in the recent past.

What might have been dismissed as a diplomatic gambit has, in the context of the current air war, been elevated into a strategic bet that military pressure can create the conditions for a political outcome of Israel's choosing. The irony is hard to overstate. It was foreign intervention that set the stage for the current enmity. In 1953, a CIA/MI6 coup https://responsiblestatecraft.org/20...iran/overthrew Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran’s last democratically elected leader.
While the plot was triggered by his nationalization of the British-controlled Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, the United States joined out of Cold War paranoia, fearing the crisis would allow Iran's powerful communist party to seize power and align the country with the Soviet Union. The coup reinstalled the Shah, whose autocratic rule and dependence on the West bred a potent mix of anti-imperialist sentiment and religious fervor.

Lets see, Chile, Iraq, Guatamala, Afghanistan....... Its quite the list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United..._regime_change

[MultiVerse]

Bunion clueless as always. Mossadegh came to power as the head of the Iranian National Front after the National Front and Fada'iyan-e Islam engaged in a series of political assassinations. In other words a coup. The fascist Pinochet came to power in Chile in a military coup after Salvador Allende attempted his own self-coup to remain in power through armed groups, illegal arrests, torture, muzzling the press, confiscating private property, and suspending the legislative & judicial branches of government.