Ukraine

[rideit]

I don't think there will ever be a no fly zone over Ukraine with the Russian army in the country and Putin in charge. Russian military doctrine allows for the use of tactical nukes if that were to happen and I don't think that's something we would risk for a non-NATO country.

One reason why Zelinskyy is pushing for immediate NATO inclusion.

[MTT]

Has this been discussed in this thread today?

I read midday about Elon enabling Star Link for Ukraine. I was looking for more details about how that works. It sounds like it will give people/ military access to the internet? Means of unblocked satalite communication. Good test
https://click.redditmail.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fworldnews%2Fcomme nts%2Ft3pruw%2Fukraine_receives_truckload_of_starl ink_terminals%2F%3F$deep_link=true%26correlation_i d=d36fa49b-3c67-44de-bede-8f1ca586e3bb%26post_fullname=t3_t3pruw%26post_inde x=1%26ref=email_digest%26ref_campaign=email_digest %26ref_source=email%26utm_content=post_author/1/0100017f43c6d7bc-43a516a3-e3f0-43ff-92df-9ce6cd9af45e-000000/gm5w4ZXTb7m2EmFK_cdP3zUy1Tpjpp2pBShENw6nx8g=238

[highangle]

One reason why Zelinskyy is pushing for immediate NATO inclusion.

Just one more lever NATO can use to unthrone Lord Poot.

[fool]

I hope that analysis is correct, but I've also noted other well-reasoned analyses that are far more pessimistic.

I found this thread instructive:
https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1498126277416566787

this one was similarly instructive albeit depressing:
https://twitter.com/defencewithac/st...99000733949963

...but this one is a bit more hopeful:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/st...81975022940167

Not sure about the blogger's individual credentials, but they seem well-informed and willing to take other views into account, including those they disagree with.

The bazaarofwar blogger actually addresses the kamilkazani thesis here:
https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/stat...C-mfmdqcspAAAA

Good links - thanks, Tri-U.

i read from a dubious source that russia offered them a withdrawal for recognition of crimea, the territories, and no nato and they refused.

i wonder if it was just crimea if they would have gone for it, or if not because russia is obviously an untrustworthy party.

I haven't read much about negotiations, but in a way, I get that the attitude from the Ukrainian side would be “no” to everything unless it’s a resumption of what was previously in place prior to the invasion. It doesn’t seem like Pres. Z gives a shit about anything other than his country’s freedom. But that’s my armchair quarterbacking of the “negotiations” - I’m not sure what either side is looking for.

That being said, a more nuanced look might be the five options for how the Ukraine crisis will end: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...ll-end/622942/

Also, since maggots love podcasts, This American Life had a good one about Putin: https://www.thisamericanlife.org/763...r-mr-president

Also also, a sobering take from a Russian-American journalist on best and worst-case scenarios on Colbert: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5l2nN0rBpk

[S_jenks]

A teeny bit of hope, these are en route right now.
But yeah, it looks grim.


28 MiG-29s from Poland
12 from Slovakia
16 from Bulgaria
14 Su-25s from Bulgaria
2,500 assault rifles
1,500 anti-tank weapons
70,000 ration packages
135,000 field rations
5,000 helmets
body armor
5,000 anti-tank weapons
100 Carl Gustaf anti-armor rocket launchers
2,000 munitions,
1,000 anti-tank weapons
500 Stinger missiles

Feels like a race of timelines and logistics now, huh?

If the Putin and his war cabinet really did expect a knockout blow in the first fews days, and that Ukraine wouldn't have put up as much resistance as they have so far- then it almost looks like they are trying to muster enough strength to overwhelm the Ukrainian army before they can dig in and resupply their lines.

To put it another way- "Who can get there firstest with the mostest?"

[JimmyCarter]

One reason why Zelinskyy is pushing for immediate NATO inclusion.

NATO or EU?

[fool]

"Putin Starting to Worry About His Strategy After Trump Calls Him Smart"
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/boro...alls-him-smart

[nickwm21]

Biggest question in my mind.

What media is Putin seeing? How is it different than what we are seeing?


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[wolfelot]

Has this been discussed in this thread today?

I read midday about Elon enabling Star Link for Ukraine. I was looking for more details about how that works. It sounds like it will give people/ military access to the internet? Means of unblocked satalite communication. Good test
https://click.redditmail.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fworldnews%2Fcomme nts%2Ft3pruw%2Fukraine_receives_truckload_of_starl ink_terminals%2F%3F$deep_link=true%26correlation_i d=d36fa49b-3c67-44de-bede-8f1ca586e3bb%26post_fullname=t3_t3pruw%26post_inde x=1%26ref=email_digest%26ref_campaign=email_digest %26ref_source=email%26utm_content=post_author/1/0100017f43c6d7bc-43a516a3-e3f0-43ff-92df-9ce6cd9af45e-000000/gm5w4ZXTb7m2EmFK_cdP3zUy1Tpjpp2pBShENw6nx8g=238

Starlink is there.

[ex-powderbroker]

To put it another way- "Who can get there firstest with the mostest?"

c'mon man

[rideit]

NATO or EU?

I certainly would imagine both?

[S_jenks]

c'mon man

Hey I certainly ain’t glorifying him

[leroy jenkins]

FYI, the reddit sub r/combatfootage has some gnarly videos of things I don't really want to see but that really should be documented and witnesed such as violence towards civilians.

Strangely enough I actually joined that sub a few weeks ago, back then it was almost entirely just historically interesting pictures of wwI and II

[S_jenks]

Hey I certainly ain’t glorifying him

And I’ll expedite the reading since I wasn’t so clear

https://thegrammarexchange.infopop.c...e-mostest?nc=1

[rideit]

His would be a great grave to piss on, too bad it’s in a museum now.

[Adolf Allerbush]

I think we should all leave early for the Chilean winter. Insult eachother face to face from safety


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That would be fun. Love Chile.

[rideit]

"Putin Starting to Worry About His Strategy After Trump Calls Him Smart"
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/boro...alls-him-smart

See post #1537, JONG

[summit]

GEN Petraeus's commentary, nothing groundbreaking: Russia is doing poorly and Putin needs an out
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux51JTprqq4

[S_jenks]

His would be a great grave to piss on, too bad it’s in a museum now.

Well with any luck, Putin’s grave might become an option in your future.

[Tri-Ungulate]

That would be fun. Love Chile.

I'm sure Cono would be happy to take you "heli-skiing".

[Benny Profane]

Yeah, Petareus. There's a winner. I'll trust his take on things.

Everybody is talking manned aircraft, but, where are the drones?

[Tri-Ungulate]

Geez, I dunno. Should I lend credence to Petreaus (for all his faults) or Benny? Who has a better understanding of military history and geopolitics?

Drones don't just materialize outta thin air. Though I do wonder if Turkey is gonna slip in a few Bayraktar TB2s through backchannels.

[rideit]

Erdogon is a straight up shit-weasel, I wouldn’t count on it.

[bennymac]

Yeah, Petareus. There's a winner. I'll trust his take on things.

Kinda like how US intelligence called all this happening in advance - and you laughed at them and called bullshit.

[Benny Profane]

Geez, I dunno. Should I lend credence to Petreaus (for all his faults) or Benny? Who has a better understanding of military history and geopolitics?

Drones don't just materialize outta thin air. Though I do wonder if Turkey is gonna slip in a few Bayraktar TB2s through backchannels.

Tremendous understanding, yup, sure.

You know that article somebody posted above about the Russian general or whatever who survived politically for thirty years not because of his leadership but his ability to suck up? That's Petareus and his ilk on the American side. Now he's making god knows how much playing the smart expert on TV.
Hey, I'm no expert in these affairs like, ahem, some in this forum, but, I know a loser when I see one.