Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Core Shot]

That’s deep bro.

Balls deep?

[Lvovsky]

Autos vs mass transportation. There are no subways and trains in L.A.

There is a subway in LA yet you not wrong cause the LA public transit is tiny vs NYC syste

[wooley12]

In NYC, a few million people take mass transit to get to the subway to get to work, so there's that.

[bennymac]

Balls deep?

If that’s where your brains are located then sure.

[Peruvian]

Meanwhile, in Vermont.

[splat]

There is a subway in LA yet you not wrong cause the LA public transit is tiny vs NYC syste

Ya think???

[riser4]

Meanwhile, in Vermont.

Lulz.

[seano732]

DeSantis is a moron. Agreed. And he is just fucking things up down there for sure. My parents are in Naples, and they are serious about SIP, but a lot of their community has mixed feelings, it seems. Makes me worry. My germaphobe mom Will Dodge The COVID, but what if she turns an ankle and falls.

I can’t surf yet. Just finished pt for a dislocated shoulder and was about to test it in real world surfing then this thing hit. But I can hike and bike on dirt again. And get away from people.

Still working the home pt to hit the water soon.

Jacksonville Beach.........Today.

[Ottime]

^^^^Well, it is Florida, and Floridians...

The idea locally is if you can't walk or bike to recreate, don't. We live in a county that is very easy to do stuff right out the front door pretty much where ever you live. Some will be close enough to surf and enjoy the beach, others will be stuck in the redwoods, or rolling hills. They want us to sit tight, except to get essentials.

Generally, across the county, people feel fine with this. We are also seeing fewer grocery trips, as folks move from daily shopping to bi-monthly. Or less. Lots of bikes on the road. Not so many cars. And we've had very slow infection spread as compared to the rest of the region and state. So we are doing something right. And we don't want the rest of you sickos here.

And the parking lots are obviously an area where there's more of a concern, but to me they are something that look worse than they are. It's not like everyone arrives and leaves at the same time.

[Mofro261]

Govt regs on labs, govt procurement

and holy fucking shit. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...463v1.full.pdf

They covered this in the paper.


The test kit used in this study (Premier Biotech, Minneapolis, MN) was tested in a Stanford laboratory prior to field deployment. Among 37 samples of known PCR-positive COVID-19 patients with positive IgG or IgM detected on a locally-developed ELISA test, 25 were kit-positive. A sample of 30 pre-COVID samples from hip surgery patients were also tested, and all 30 were negative. The manufacturer’s test characteristics relied on samples from clinically confirmed COVID-19 patients as positive gold standard and pre-COVID sera for negative gold standard. Among 75 samples of clinically confirmed COVID-19 patients with positive IgG, 75 were kit-positive, and among 85 samples with positive IgM, 78 were kit- positive. Among 371 pre-COVID samples, 369 were negative. Our estimates of sensitivity based on the manufacturer’s and locally tested data were 91.8% (using the lower estimate based on IgM, 95 CI 83.8- 96.6%) and 67.6% (95 CI 50.2-82.0%), respectively. Similarly, our estimates of specificity are 99.5% (95 CI 98.1-99.9%) and 100% (95 CI 90.5-100%). A combination of both data sources provides us with a combined sensitivity of 80.3% (95 CI 72.1-87.0%) and a specificity of 99.5% (95 CI 98.3-99.9%).

its going to be tough getting more test kits (antibody or otherwise) for the near future as the Feds are commandeering/redistributing every n95, surgical gown and test kit that hits the import list at DHS

All they covered was that the rapid test was from Premier, They made no mention that this test has been recalled.

But they did address their data may be bunk:

These results represent the first large-scale community-based prevalence study in a major US countycompleted during a rapidly changing pandemic, and with newly available test kits. We consider our
estimate to represent the best available current evidence, but recognize that new information, especially
about the test kit performance, could result in updated estimates. For example, if new estimates indicate
test specificity to be less than 97.9%, our SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimate would change from 2.8% to
less than 1%, and the lower uncertainty bound of our estimate would include zero. On the other hand,
lower sensitivity, which has been raised as a concern with point-of-care test kits, would imply that the
population prevalence would be even higher. New information on test kit performance and population
should be incorporated as more testing is done and we plan to revise our estimates accordingly.
...


The data provided in the insert has not been verified, and they are basing a lot of the specificity calculations on the manufacturer's stated specificity. My point was the test was not FDA-EUA approved and has been called from the market.

[Ottime]

Sure did, mainly because you live in my old hood. Stopped in a few years back to surf pleasure p but its been over-run by NIMBY shit sippers pushing foam boards through white water.

Nope, nothing.

[ron johnson]

Because banks never failed because of bad decisions before the Fed was created in 1913 or because letting banks fail worked so well during the Great Depression? The idea that illusory beliefs only happen because of the Fed is ahistorical.

As far as a ‘housing bubble’ is concerned, if that's the case then the asset would have predictably fallen in price due to irrational price movements and more less stayed there. But after 2008 the Fed lowered rates sharply and what happened to the housing market since? Is housing always a bubble all the time except during downturns? If so then isn't the 'bubble' idea a useless dead end?

The point being, if you're going to say the whole problem is "these huge bubbles" then your theory is either a useful forecasting hypothesis, or it isn’t.

Of course banks failed before the Fed, that is what is supposed to happen to businesses that get themselves into trouble. The problem is the Fed incentivizes this type of profit driven risky behavior.

Implying that the Great Depression wouldn't have been so bad if the Fed bailed out the banks is useless - it can't be proven or disproven. The Fed deserves plenty of blame for creating the Depression in the first place with their inflation of the money supply in the 1920's.

The Fed was able to reinflate the housing bubble after '08. It is still a bubble. What do you think would have happened to the housing market if the Fed hadn't lowered rates sharply? What do you think would happen to the housing market if the Fed let rates normalize now?

"My theory" is a useful forecasting hypothesis. Plenty of people predicted the dot-com crash and the housing crash - particularly those that follow the Austrian school. They have predicted the next one too, and it looks like the virus will be the pin that pops that bubble. Time will tell.

[Core Shot]

Weimar Republic?

Or full on Zimbabwe

[Rideski]

Wow, 736,385 days later, Denver Gov requires masks on essential workers such as grocery stores.
Glad he finally put it through, not sure what took so long.
Rocket surgery I tell ya.

[XXX-er]

almost 40k americas dead but wtf does that mean ?

I havent seen any dead people and who has ?

Its just an abstract we need to see some dead folk

or at least covid infected zombies stumbling down mainstreet america

[Benny Profane]

re: CA vs. NY. I just spent some time trying to find the Times article I read a few days ago without success but the point of the article was that the source of the New York outbreak has been pretty clearly nailed down as being Europe. The source of the CA infection is known to be China. There is far more direct travel between China and California than there is between China and NY, 8 times more IIRC. Because of the huge amount of travel to CA from China, the idea is that the disease got to CA well before it got to NY, brought there by travelers from Europe who got it from China directly or indirectly at some earlier point.

Essentially (goes the theory) it all goes back to transmissibility and herd immunity and the date that the outbreak actually began. The date when the disease arose is unknown. China has pushed it back several times (possibly as far as November is the current thought, but it could even be earlier). It circulated for some time before it was discovered. Prior to that discovery CV cases were thought to be flu cases and didn't raise any particular alarm.

Because there is so much travel between China and CA (again, in the theory) the disease was introduced to CA very early and spread rather quietly. People were getting sick, but nobody had ever heard of CV at that point, so there was no particular alarm. Because of the transmissibility of the disease, and the fact that nobody even knew it existed. CA was able to develop a level of herd immunity that New York did not have on the same dates.

Add in the differences in population age and overall health, population density and the way people live (as Benny pointed out, cars v. subways would be one such difference) and voila. Obviously randomized sampling is needed to establish infection rates but the belief is/is theorized to be that such testing would show that a much higher percentage of Californians have had the disease than of New Yorkers. As the disease spreads everywhere it may not be possible to prove this theory in the future, in fact it may be too late now.

Best way to confirm that is open up all bars and sporting events in California and sit back and wait. Sorry, but people, in general, just dont rub shoulders in Ca. like they do in the I95 corridor.

[KQ]

A little comic relief

[Benny Profane]

LMAO...c'mon man....LA literally has a subway

I challenge you to even find a station and use it.

[Benny Profane]

A little comic relief

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=GLcNStHTDjM

Wow. Bill Burr would flinch. That's intense. Watch the spit fly.

[The SnowShow]

Didn’t watch tRump’s presser but did anyone ask him why he’s inciting violence on social media?

[4matic]

LA train network is pretty good.

[Benny Profane]

[QUOTE=XXX-er;5962466]almost 40k americas dead but wtf does that mean ?

I havent seen any dead people and who has ?[QUOTE]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...uring-pandemic

Its just an abstract we need to see some dead folk

or at least covid infected zombies stumbling down mainstreet america

[Benny Profane]

LA train network is pretty good.

Nobody uses it.

[Benny Profane]

Didn’t watch tRump’s presser but did anyone ask him why he’s inciting violence on social media?

Of course they did. Totally took the bait. And he spewed some word salad back at them. And it goes on and on.

[jono]

almost 40k americas dead but wtf does that mean ?

I havent seen any dead people and who has ?

Its just an abstract we need to see some dead folk

or at least covid infected zombies stumbling down mainstreet america

Surreal, man. The uncanny valley isn't just for robots, it's also for people who aren't in the US playing the role of American just a little too well. Weirds me out every time I see it: the sincerest form of flattery brought out unexpectedly.

Bravo. Well played sir.