Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[The AD]

How so

First case to statewide stay at home

California 2/26 3/19
Ny. 3/3. 3/22


In reality NY locked down more quickly than California from the discovery of the first case.

A few points to consider:
1. the source I'm looking at says 3/1 for the first case in NY (https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus...e-january.html)
2. A decent part of California was shutdown before the statewide order (Bay Area on 3/16)
3. Is the first case in the state really that important? Everyone knew what was going on by mid-March. All the ski resorts were shutting down on 3/14 and 3/15 and even that was probably too late.

[nyskirat]

On the topic of California and COVID, interesting read. Makes sense too

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/u...-hospital.html

[LongShortLong]

Not necessarily. California began locking things up quite a bit earlier than New York did.


https://www.vox.com/2020/4/7/2120589...ork-california

Lockdown date makes a huge difference in case counts. 2 weeks can be 20x difference or more. Covid19 grows out of control very quickly

[MultiVerse]

^ Yeah, there was even a lot of debate in this thread about California's reaction, starting with steps taken by the cities, that preceded most other places.

[Lvovsky]

Looky here
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/
A plan from the white house!

It’s a cool sequel to “Failed to protect America” and “Did not close America”.

[Lvovsky]

As always, Carlin nailed it. And yeah, there's a reason why I put "intelligence" in scare-quotes. It's not like I expect the bulletheads in the Pentagon to know a pandemic from a pancake; just saying, with all the money that keeps being thrown away on Strangelovian fantasies, doing a little homework on the pandemic scenarios that lots of people had been saying were inevitable shouldn't have been a lot to ask.

As for the Chinese conspiracy idea, my point was that it doesn't matter at this point, but I'll go further: the theory is stupid. China's economy got hit extremely hard, and if not for an extraordinary response, this virus could have ravaged their densely populated country worse than any other. If China comes out ahead in the end, it won't be because they pulled a fast one on us. It'll be because the corrupt mismanaged increasingly authoritarian shitshow, that the US has been turning into, finally got the message across to the rest of the world: Look to other countries, not us, for leadership.

yeah... just look at the clown car of national security advisors. No surprise they f’ed up pandemic preparedness.

[seano732]

Hey take that shit to the Pooly-ass

Heh....

[Ottime]

Trump has spent the morning sending a series of tweets that say 'LIBERATE VIRGINIA', 'LIBERATE MICHIGAN', etc......In other words, he is actively inciting citizens of this country to violate their state's stay at home orders...I can't even.........

Oh and Desantis is opening the beaches in Florida.......MAGA!

We’ve re opened the beaches. Beaches are actually pretty huge. People spread out. We did not re-open the parking lots. So you need to walk or bike to the beach. Not too many people on the beach, all of them well distanced and way fucking happier than we were last week.

Things are not always black and white. There are smart ways for allowing people to get out and recreate.

I kind of like how fucking empty Wilder Ranch is. And also like knowing that the guy I just passed on my bike was from my neighborhood, and not Santa Clara, or anywhere else in the Bay Area.

[spanghew]

There are in San Francisco

There are. But most non-CA people think all of CA is LA.

[Deebased]

A few points to consider:
1. the source I'm looking at says 3/1 for the first case in NY (https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus...e-january.html)
2. A decent part of California was shutdown before the statewide order (Bay Area on 3/16)
3. Is the first case in the state really that important? Everyone knew what was going on by mid-March.

TBH I pulled those dates straight out of the Vox article. He did qualify them as community transmission.

And the better question is not why were so few of the cases in CA severe. From a Stanford article I posted earlier.

Estimates are only 1.5% of California cases were confirmed

Results
The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50- 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

[KQ]

The world has known the US has been fucked for a while now (since the election of a TV game show host/misogynistic/lying/huckster), but the latest debacle that is the handling of this pandemic by your elected leader will be known as the case in point.

Really seems like there should be some sort of psychological test/eval for anyone running for president:



Trump tweets warnings at governors who are taking his own advice. Imagine that.


In the world according to Donald Trump, he's found his sweet spot: living in his own leadership void, publicly veering from no-responsibility to total-authority (and back again), falsely claiming success on all virus-related matters, blaming any perceived failures on some new (and old) enemies.

It's a new world out there, but it's the same old Trump.

It probably shouldn't have come as any surprise that in this pandemic, Trump would find yet another way to divide a country just looking for consistency in a crisis. But even by Trumpian standards, this is dangerous.
Consider this: Less than 24 hours after his science team announced carefully phased-in guidelines for reopening the nation (with Trump himself telling governors they would "call your own shots"), the President began tweeting garbage aimed at the Democratic governors of Michigan and Minnesota and Virginia, using the language of conservatives protesting state closings.

His tweets screamed for the governors to "LIBERATE" their states, all of which could go blue in 2020.
So let's get this straight: the President of the United States, in an effort to gain some political traction, is contradicting both himself and his policy. Why? Because he's watching the demonstrations and, as he says, they "like me."

That's always the key for Trump. That and winning.

Keeping the base happy is nothing new. And while 66% of the American public is concerned about restrictions on public activity being lifted too quickly, a recent Pew Research Center poll shows more than half of the most conservative voters are concerned restrictions won't be lifted quickly enough.

But what happens if or when the governors decide they're not ready to start opening up their states in the near future? They'll no doubt get attacked, and it will become a Trump talking point. And it will reverberate. But the fact remains: He will rail against governors for following his own administration's advice -- that he announced, that he approved.

Classic.

Trump is a master of only one thing: divisiveness. Not public safety. Not policy. Just pure rhetoric that encourages an already polarized nation to split even more over, of all things, public health.

Oh, and maybe he's a master of one more thing: deflection. He actually tweeted that Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York should "spend more time 'doing' and less time 'complaining'. Get out there and get the job done. Stop talking!"

It's almost as if he had written the tweet about himself. But that would require a certain understanding of his own destructive behavior.

Sad to say, there is none of that

[seano732]

Things are not always black and white. There are smart ways for allowing people to get out and recreate.

Oh I agree, but unlike California, Florida has done fuck all to mitigate the spread, so yeah, Desantis is a fucking moron. glad to hear you can get out in the water.

[Lvovsky]

Try to climb Maslow's hierarchy (are you a college freshman?) and recognize one quarter is followed by another. Push too hard to open too quickly and this quarter becomes a long "new normal." It's child-like magical thinking to say opening now fixes the problem.

They can open whatever but I am not going anywhere. And many other consumers are not going anywhere until they feel it’s safe. So let the business open, fail to make sales, and layoff staff. Is that the scenario they are looking for? I don’t see a win here.

[Ottime]

So basically, the president is cheerleading sedition now.

Impeachable?

Well, used to be.

And why the fuck are any of you responding to deebased? It is only here for attention. Just leave it alone and it will go away. Like a scan.

[KQ]

They can open whatever but I am not going anywhere. And many other consumers are not going anywhere until they feel it’s safe. So let the business open, fail to make sales, and layoff staff. Is that the scenario they are looking for? I don’t see a win here.

I've been thinking this too. Just because things open doesn't mean people are going to be rushing in to partake of your services.

[Ottime]

On BBC now

Attachment 325604

Love guys touching their masks. Especially the one with his hand all over his. Oh, and the guns. Lovely touch.

See y’all at the hospital next week.

[Deebased]

Impeachable?

Well, used to be.

And why the fuck are any of you responding to deebased? It is only here for attention. Just leave it alone and it will go away. Like a scan.

Perhaps because science is slowly letting us know that there's more to c19 than #fearmongering?

[Conundrum]

Not BBC but in Idaho and I'm reporting live. Heard there was a rally at the Statehouse so rode my bike the mile over. Didn't get close enough to really capture the quality of people but yeah, plenty of assholes holding Trump signs. Moms with their toddlers walking amongst the crowd with no masks. Old people, fat people, young people, armed people. Stopped long enough to grab a pic and went home. Fuck.

[Rideski]

Not BBC but in Idaho and I'm reporting live. Heard there was a rally at the Statehouse so rode my bike the mile over. Didn't get close enough to really capture the quality of people but yeah, plenty of assholes holding Trump signs. Moms with their toddlers walking amongst the crowd with no masks. Old people, fat people, young people, armed people. Stopped long enough to grab a pic and went home. Fuck.

Seems like a win win to put all of them to work sanitizing nursing homes and hospitals.
But wait, test them before sending them in.

[m2711c]

Early travel restrictions from China must be the explanation.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

over 420,000 people have come to the us from china since the "travel ban" was put in place...... thats a lot of folks.

[Ottime]

Oh I agree, but unlike California, Florida has done fuck all to mitigate the spread, so yeah, Desantis is a fucking moron. glad to hear you can get out in the water.

DeSantis is a moron. Agreed. And he is just fucking things up down there for sure. My parents are in Naples, and they are serious about SIP, but a lot of their community has mixed feelings, it seems. Makes me worry. My germaphobe mom Will Dodge The COVID, but what if she turns an ankle and falls.

I can’t surf yet. Just finished pt for a dislocated shoulder and was about to test it in real world surfing then this thing hit. But I can hike and bike on dirt again. And get away from people.

Still working the home pt to hit the water soon.

[Ottime]

Perhaps because science is slowly letting us know that there's more to c19 than #fearmongering?

What? Did you say something?

[grinch]

Perhaps because science is slowly letting us know that there's more to c19 than #fearmongering?

Oh shit i forgot. Thanks for the reminder. Its 80% whataboutism, 10% self fluffing and 10% tinfoil hat too tight. That occasional step right off the deep end is pure comedy
#youscaredbro

Sent from my SM-G950W using TGR Forums mobile app

[Lone Star]

Not BBC but in Idaho and I'm reporting live. Heard there was a rally at the Statehouse so rode my bike the mile over. Didn't get close enough to really capture the quality of people but yeah, plenty of assholes holding Trump signs. Moms with their toddlers walking amongst the crowd with no masks. Old people, fat people, young people, armed people. Stopped long enough to grab a pic and went home. Fuck.

Would have been a shame if a can of bear spray happened to go off

[MultiVerse]

They can open whatever but I am not going anywhere. And many other consumers are not going anywhere until they feel it’s safe. So let the business open, fail to make sales, and layoff staff. Is that the scenario they are looking for? I don’t see a win here.

Not just consumers, outside business leaders also rebuffed Trump's overtures. People know the first wave has not yet been beaten back. Meanwhile, there are Asian and EU countries reopening but in America the situation persists because we have failed to achieve the simple, logical, and clear steps towards being ready for the next phase.