Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Benny Profane]

New Zealand locked down before it had a single death. It has tested like crazy (15,000+ per million). It never accepted herd immunity or that ‘many loved ones will die’.

Attachment 325548

How is this data valid without the concrete proof from testing, which is woefully lacking here?

[MultiVerse]

Too bad so many people "hate math," because there's no way to look at that chart and come to the conclusion that the U.S.'s response was anything other than abysmal.

Yeah, according to the Wall Street Journal the reported U.S. coronavirus deaths reached a record 4,591 in the past 24 hours.

One of the big reasons NZ and other countries have done such a better job is because the math explains the initial response, the initial conditions, sets the order of magnitude of the outbreak. So even subsequent waves aren't as bad as long as you maintain a semblance of control.

For all the talk of reopening the United States, the reason why Trump backed away from ordering the country to open is because a second wave as bad as the one now would essentially guarantee an economic disaster, a disaster, unlike his failed response, he couldn't blame on China.

[SkiCougar]

https://www.statista.com/chart/21408...oors-outdoors/

infograhic - "Americans Spend Less Than 8 Percent of Their Time Outdoors"

thought it was interesting that despite all the reports of stir crazieness, most do not go out except to go back in somewhere else.

[Benny Profane]

Yeah, according to the Wall Street Journal the reported U.S. coronavirus deaths reached a record 4,591 in the past 24 hours.

One of the big reasons NZ and other countries have done such a better job is because the math explains the initial response, the initial conditions, sets the order of magnitude of the outbreak. So even subsequent waves aren't as bad as long as you maintain a semblance of control.

For all the talk of reopening the United States, the reason why Trump backed away from ordering the country to open is because a second wave as bad as the one now would essentially guarantee an economic disaster.

He backed off from an order because it would be ignored by governors. Also, his approval ratings are dropping, something he checks every day, like you and I check the weather. He's probably also watching the approval ratings drop for other world leaders that are acting even more like an asshole during all this, like Bolsonaro.

[MultiVerse]

^ Not necessarily Red State governors, and if the order was ignored then that's a win. Trump's the guy who wanted to open the country while the governors kept it closed.

It's about avoiding responsibility for the calamity just like leaking the Wuhan lab memo is about shifting the blame to China.

[frorider]

Australia is a more interesting comparison than NZ. Similar success at flattening that curve and bending it down. A highly urbanized country. As in US, many elderly don’t live with their middle aged kids. Schools were kept open but the crackdown measures were significant and generally observed. Significantly, returning Australians were under 2 week mandatory quarantine. https://www.newscientist.com/article...s-it-doing-it/

[huckbucket]

For all the talk of reopening the United States, the reason why Trump backed away from ordering the country to open is because a second wave as bad as the one now would essentially guarantee an economic disaster, a disaster, unlike his failed response, he couldn't blame on China.

There's also the timing of the second wave relative to Nov. I haven't seen projections that would provide guidance although I'm sure they're out there (Marc Lipsitch has probably looked at it).

[Name Redacted]

NZ is mostly very rural, and split in half by a channel. Wonder if any of that helped too.

Was reading about India yesterday somewhere. Surprisingly, they were faring pretty well. Some guess to why that was were the fact that they have a mostly young population due to overall lower life expectancy. Also a warmer climate where the virus doesn't perform as well apparently. Lastly, they also thought there might be some immunity from previous outbreaks. Interesting to me because I assumed India would be really bad due to overcrowding and poor sanitation. Maybe Africa will have similar results.

[Deebased]

you would be lucky to pull the ass I get when you are 55 and I am not married

Still deriving self-worth from ass at 55? I thought most people got over that by their mid-20's.

More power to ya, do what makes you happy consenting adults and all. Just extend that grace to those who have moved up to Maslows 2nd level and seeking safety through employment...Employer and Employee are consenting adults as well.

[Deebased]

Yeah, according to the Wall Street Journal the reported U.S. coronavirus deaths reached a record 4,591 in the past 24 hours.

One of the big reasons NZ and other countries have done such a better job is because the math explains the initial response, the initial conditions, sets the order of magnitude of the outbreak. So even subsequent waves aren't as bad as long as you maintain a semblance of control.

For all the talk of reopening the United States, the reason why Trump backed away from ordering the country to open is because a second wave as bad as the one now would essentially guarantee an economic disaster, a disaster, unlike his failed response, he couldn't blame on China.

The economic disaster is virtually guaranteed. 20% unemployment and 40% reduction in GDP this quarter.

[muted]

There's also the timing of the second wave relative to Nov. I haven't seen projections that would provide guidance although I'm sure they're out there (Marc Lipsitch has probably looked at it).

He'll make sure to open anything up that's closed when it's a week before the election is my guess.

[KQ]

Australia is a more interesting comparison than NZ. Similar success at flattening that curve and bending it down. A highly urbanized country. As in US, many elderly don’t live with their middle aged kids. Schools were kept open but the crackdown measures were significant and generally observed. Significantly, returning Australians were under 2 week mandatory quarantine. https://www.newscientist.com/article...s-it-doing-it/

There's always one......

Australian mayor fined after violating stay-at-home orders and going out for beer

The mayor of Australian city Warrnambool has been fined $1,044 after being photographed drinking beer with others outside a liquor store this month -- a breach of stay-at-home orders in the state of Victoria.

Victoria’s social distancing rules state that “gatherings of more than two people are not allowed except for members of your immediate household and for work or education purposes."

In a statement released on Thursday, mayor Tony Herbert said "I made mistakes" and "I wish to apologies for them."

"I believed my actions to engage with business owners as part of my mayoral role was within the bounds of the law," Herbert added. "However, I realize I had inadvertently breached the new laws."

Speaking about the incident, first reported by public broadcaster ABC, Victoria Police told CNN:

"Following reports of people gathering and drinking in a street outside a Warrnambool liquor store Tuesday 7 April, police can confirm they have issued four penalty notices for breaching Chief Health Officer directions."
Australia currently has 6,523 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, including 65 deaths.

[Ripzalot]

[MultiVerse]

The economic disaster is virtually guaranteed. 20% unemployment and 40% reduction in GDP this quarter.

Try to climb Maslow's hierarchy (are you a college freshman?) and recognize one quarter is followed by another. Push too hard to open too quickly and this quarter becomes a long "new normal." It's child-like magical thinking to say opening now fixes the problem.

[Benny Profane]

There's also the timing of the second wave relative to Nov. I haven't seen projections that would provide guidance although I'm sure they're out there (Marc Lipsitch has probably looked at it).

From what I understand, we're still in the first wave. The peak is still a month away in a lot of places in the country.

[DBdude]

Whats wrong with that Venn diagram.

Are the elderly with 1-2 years of life expectancy (most of whom would have passed long ago without modern medical intervention) somehow more important than a fetus with 80 years of life expectancy? Sure you can add all kinds of adjectives to create a deterministic vantage like: unwanted, accidental, abandoned and burdensome but if you're honest all of these terms cut both ways when describing how America treats its elderly. With the one exception that the former has potential upside to society and the other not so much. .

Feel free to extend those metaphors but its a values clarification exercise and the net is no one wants to make or be responsible for those decisions and humanity is rubbish

fuck you

you created a straw man - the two don't correlate. The choice to end a pregnancy is the mother's choice - stop - end of argument - treating sick people with covid is not some type of existential decision. It is a medical decision and all people deserve care

you don't want your wife to have an abortion - that is between she and you - allow women to make a reproductive choice - it's not your call

you are a narrow minded fuck and nobody who participated in this thread will forget what a cunt you are

i would get a new user name if I were you

[Buster Highmen]

The economy serves the people, not the other way around.

[XXX-er]

Its pretty obvious trump is going to have to bomb something/someone to bolster his ratings amongst the mouth breathers to get re-elected, the big question is the timing and whom ?

[DBdude]

Still deriving self-worth from ass at 55? I thought most people got over that by their mid-20's.

More power to ya, do what makes you happy consenting adults and all. Just extend that grace to those who have moved up to Maslows 2nd level and seeking safety through employment...Employer and Employee are consenting adults as well.

says the boy who quoted better to burn out than fade away

lol

[concretejungle]

Its pretty obvious trump is going to have to bomb something/someone to bolster his ratings amongst the mouth breathers to get re-elected, the big question is the timing and whom ?

I’m sure KQ’s “friends” have some ideas.


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[riser4]

The economy serves the people, not the other way around.

While I agree with you, I am not so sure the folks at the top agree. They like to piss on us and tell us it's raining. Tinkle down economics.

[Benny Profane]

Its pretty obvious trump is going to have to bomb something/someone to bolster his ratings amongst the mouth breathers to get re-elected, the big question is the timing and whom ?

Nope. Ain't going to work. Unless he fakes an attack, a big attack. Even then, doubtful, unless it's another 9/11 on our soil. The mouth breathers supply the armies with bodies, or are related to someone in the military. They have had enough of these forever wars. A very large majority of Americans are going to say, what the fuck are you doing, asshole, get me my job back.

[Buster Highmen]

While I agree with you, I am not so sure the folks at the top agree. They like to piss on us and tell us it's raining. Tinkle down economics.

well....DUH!

It's just that I have a hard time reading their two bit toadies and Stockholm victim diatribes.

[The AD]

One of the things that's a little disturbing to me is what a house of cards the economy is. I understand something like this is going to hit small businesses hard, but the strain it's putting on even huge corporations like airlines is incredible. We're talking about corporations that pull in billions of dollars in profits annually and their very existence is threatened by a downturn in business (granted a severe downturn) of just a few weeks so far? Doesn't it seems like huge corporations should be prepared better for something like this? It seems an awful lot like the subprime mortgage bubble back in 2008. Way too many businesses leveraged just a little too much.

[TBS]

^^^The result of corps using their free cash and borrowing to buy back stock