What's the number?

[4matic]

Portfolio theory dorks. Article verbalizes my opinion of backward looking return models. It's either valid, or it isn't.

http://bv.ms/2h0ZYp0

[Benny Profane]

As long as the Euro drops, Benny sees deflation in Euro travels.

[GeezerSteve]

Fed bumps rates yesterday, stock market up today.

[SkiCougar]

Fed bumps rates yesterday, stock market up today.

not sure if this was supposed to be in the stock mkt thread or not, but i'll go with it.

the mkt has no fear imo, it may take world war 3 to set off the next downturn.

[54-46]

Portfolio theory dorks. Article verbalizes my opinion of backward looking return models. It's either valid, or it isn't.

http://bv.ms/2h0ZYp0

Yes, really look at backward looking models to determine worst case scenarios on various allocations. Playing defense first for my situation.

For example, in the last 90 years a 60/40 stock/bond allocation had worst year of about a 25% loss.

Prolly wouldn't make that choice with only 3-4 years left. With 8-10 years? Not a problem IMO.

[Benny Profane]

Fed bumps rates yesterday, stock market up today.

Yeah, like I said, what the fuck do I know.

[GeezerSteve]

it may take world war 3 to set off the next downturn.

Or Inauguration Day

[Rednaked]

what the fuck do I know.

^ how to pizza down flat slopes at that coreest of core resorts that is "Keystone"

[Benny Profane]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/americas...tic-1481721719

[HansJob]

Cut and paste the article for us Bunny. Some of us don't have a subscription to das kapitalist rag.

[sb]

How many days you got?

[Benny Profane]

Cut and paste the article for us Bunny. Some of us don't have a subscription to das kapitalist rag.

Copy the headline, paste into google search (or just in url head), and then click on link. Works with Barron's, too. You're welcome.

[HansJob]

Thanks man.

[old goat]

Thomas Piketty, in "Capital in the 21st Century" says that historically the return on capital has been 5% and the growth rate of the economy 2%, for multiple countries, several centuries. The high returns and growth rate of the second half of the 20th century were an anomaly--the result of recovery from 2 world wars and the great depression. He believes that we will return to 5%/2% as the new (old) normal . Furthermore, since the income of the rich increases at the rate of capital return while the income of people who actually work increases at the growth rate of the economy the widening gap between rich and the rest of humanity is structural. (I don't quite understand the connection between the growth rate of the economy and the increase in income of the working class, but apparently it's basic economics. Or is it?)

Piketty foresees one of two outcomes--a global tax on capital (wealth, as opposed to income), or revolution. One could view Brexit and Trump's election as opening battles in this revolution, which will escalate when Brexit and Trump voters find out that nothing has changed.

[4matic]

If I get laid off in June and have fully funded my 401k for that can I contribute to a tax deferred IRA in the same year since I am no longer covered by a company sponsored plan?

[54-46]

If I get laid off in June and have fully funded my 401k for that can I contribute to a tax deferred IRA in the same year since I am no longer covered by a company sponsored plan?

Some limits apply where you were covered for part of a year. Depends on income, etc.

See: https://www.irs.gov/publications/p59...link1000230467

[Platinum Pete]

This thread is less fun than now it was a year ago or five years ago. Stop bickering!

Looking back at my contribution to the thread, very early on, I've made a lot of progress. I am currently on track for $4.5mm in retirement savings if I keep the savings rate going at the current pace until 65, but I still don't want to work that long.
I wound up marrying the Canadian and need to better understand how to extract value from my ability to move up north with her someday. How does Canada price provincial health care plans? What if I am retired? What if I have most of my money in the US? How do I bring USD my money into Canada without serious tax penalty or exchange rate costs?
My Canadian wife is close to delivering our first kid! We'll probably have 2. I am almost 40. How does this torque my spending, saving, and retirement planning? Probably a lot. Daycare for infants in San Francisco costs upwards of $30k/year per kid - that takes a bite out of the savings rate!

I'd like to get out of San Francisco, but I can earn the most here and have a nice sized rent controlled apartment that costs about what the equivalent would cost in Seattle (our preferred destination). Going back to Portland saves some money and improves lifestyle, but risks employment options and earning ability for both my wife and I. At least I own a rental property in one of Portland's hottest neighborhoods and raised the rent to market rates recently.
The wife makes non-profit money, so between her and the rental house we can afford to live modestly and put a few bucks away, but the kid is going to be a headwind to that.

I try not to obsess over optimizing the variables. We're pretty well trimmed on the big items in the budget, to the point that quitting cable TV is our current biggest opportunity to cut spending (wife's not going for it). I'd like to up our incomes, but she works in a non-profit and her last raise didn't cover the annual cable TV bill, so it's on me to get promoted or change jobs, and maybe start a business while I bounce a newborn on my knees.

[XXX-er]

welcome to Canada eh

not sure about them other questions but you probably wana pop that kid out up here so that he/she will be a Canadian citizen and besides ... free delivery

actualy its not free, you do pay some MSP but it doesn't amount to much maybe 200 $ a month or sft?

some other canucKlehead can tell you or google it

and there is no such word as "Copay" in the canadian language

[4matic]

I've made a lot of progress. I am currently on track for $4.5mm

How many yachts can you water ski behind?

That much savings puts you in the .5 percentile and provides $200k a year forever. I'm not seeing much of a problem. Let your wife do what makes her happy if you can just stay in this path.

[Benny Profane]

If I get laid off in June and have fully funded my 401k for that can I contribute to a tax deferred IRA in the same year since I am no longer covered by a company sponsored plan?

Probably not, but at least you can transfer your money out of that crappy 401k (most, if not all 401ks are crappy) and put that money into a much lower cost IRA at Vanguard.

[54-46]

Two ideas: relative assets/savings and projected needs/wants.

% rankings can be input here: http://www.shnugi.com/retirement-acc...etqliq=1900000

Wants/needs = subjective once above "subsistence" levels.

[Bobby Stainless]

I just try and make more money than I did last year. I like what I do, so I don't see myself stopping, regardless of wealth.

20M and I guess I would stop flipping the cars I buy.

[whipski]

Whatever # allows you ski, bike, hike, surf, as many days/week as possible. Less is more...no amount of money is worth your free time, want what you have

[Platinum Pete]

How many yachts can you water ski behind?

That much savings puts you in the .5 percentile and provides $200k a year forever. I'm not seeing much of a problem. Let your wife do what makes her happy if you can just stay in this path.

C'mon man, if you read the sentence past the one you quoted you'll see that I don't want to keep grinding until 65. It's nice to have a solid start on the nest egg and the goal is to not have to go til 65.

[Bromontana]

If you have 2.5m + rental income on lien free RE, why not switch to a part time job you enjoy at 50 and go with 30yr USTs or comparable? Seems like that would put you in position to coast outside of the highest COL areas.