What's the number?

[Ted Striker]

Because he shot a man there just to watch him die.

[El Chupacabra]

Reno on the cheap with Benny.

He's a local, you know.

[GeezerSteve]

Heh. Bunny funhee is the gift that keeps on giving.

But the important part of planning is not just achieving a number, but finding a low cost way to live after work ends. Do the calculations on some of those commercial plug in the numbers calculators, and it's soon evident that inflation is your biggest enemy. So, moving to a place where the 1% are, like ski towns, is not a wise idea. Keep it cheap.

Yeah, of course, living within your means is key, both before and after retirement. Most of those who managed to get to the number without an inheritance have that figured out. That is, those non-trustfunders who managed to save the number likely lived well within their means, and those who lived above their means during their working lives are less likely to have saved sufficiently to fund retirement.

Spending patterns/habits are at least as important as revenue. One of my former law partners often made 2X what I made in a typical year, yet he saved little or nothing because he spent what he made eating out, flying first class, expensive vacations, etc. I used to tell him that the fastest way to fill a bucket is to plug the holes.

"Ski town" is an ambiguous term. Bunny seems to use it to mean expensive touristy ski towns where rich people have 2nd (or 3rd, 4th or 5th) homes. But there are lots of affordable towns close to good skiing and other mountain activities but which lack the trappings of touristy ski towns. it aint that hard to find one.

[dan_pdx]

Anyway, I just came here to ask if there are any realistic retirement calculators out there. It seems like no matter how much you tell them you'll have in income/savings, they spit out that you are grossly underprepared.

You might want to take a look at FIREcalc: https://www.firecalc.com

It's specifically for those seeking Financial Independence / Retire Early. Basically it takes your savings as of your retirement date, looks at your planned spending and expected returns, and sees how you would have fared in the investment markets over the last hundred years or something like that. I don't recall the exact time period considered, but it's something like that. E.g., "would someone with this financial profile retiring in 1970 have outlived their money, or ran out? How about 1971? How about 1972?" etc.

The FIRE rabbit hole goes pretty deep online, there is lots to look at / read about. Somewhat similar to other folks here, I'm coming up on what I thought was my number and no longer sure that it's enough...the human condition in a nutshell, amirite?

[iceman]

Regular ongoing expenses are the bitch. I don't owe anybody a penny but have bills coming out my ass every month. You have to make all that money just to get started.

[wyeaster]

break fewer hips!

[iceman]

break fewer hips!

ha. I'll do my best.

[GeezerSteve]

You might want to take a look at FIREcalc: https://www.firecalc.com

I plugged in some numbers. The year-by-year portfolio graph shows an ending worth range from $500K to $6.5 million, which is kinda worthless. OTOH, the average numbers per this firecalc link confirm that the average cost of "basic cost of living" for an average retired American couple is alot less than many on this thread are assuming.

I don't owe anybody a penny but have bills coming out my ass every month.

Huh? Aren't bills evidence that you owe money? -- unless you are the one sending out the bills.

Moving from Seattle to E o' the Cascades has resulted in 1/3 reduction of bills, e.g., insurance premiums, utilities, garbage/recycling (I haul our own now).

If you want to get serious about paring down spending and prioritizing use of money, check out this site: Mr. Money Mustache — Early Retirement through Badassity.

The book Possum Living represents lowest to the ground living, not for many, but for everyone a reality check re needs vs. wants and finding value in things that are free or very inexpensive -- and a run read: https://www.vice.com/sv/article/yvnv...-die-298-v17n1 Note that that author, Dolly Freed, is a birdwatcher, a no-cost activity that brings great value to those who embrace it.

[Benny Profane]

Heh. Bunny funhee is the gift that keeps on giving.

Yeah, of course, living within your means is key, both before and after retirement. Most of those who managed to get to the number without an inheritance have that figured out. That is, those non-trustfunders who managed to save the number likely lived well within their means, and those who lived above their means during their working lives are less likely to have saved sufficiently to fund retirement.

Spending patterns/habits are at least as important as revenue. One of my former law partners often made 2X what I made in a typical year, yet he saved little or nothing because he spent what he made eating out, flying first class, expensive vacations, etc. I used to tell him that the fastest way to fill a bucket is to plug the holes.

"Ski town" is an ambiguous term. Bunny seems to use it to mean expensive touristy ski towns where rich people have 2nd (or 3rd, 4th or 5th) homes. But there are lots of affordable towns close to good skiing and other mountain activities but which lack the trappings of touristy ski towns. it aint that hard to find one.

I'm happy to have amused you this holiday season, counselor. Am I funny like a fucking clown?

Ski Town is not an ambiguous term in my book. Maybe yours. My definition, is, simply, no more than thirty minutes (and that's stretching it) to the lift on a powder day. Also, the place is filled with skiers, and the people who work in the industry that lives off those local skiers, and the visiting skiers.
Now, you are arguing from the world of the abstract, I assume, but, with that criteria, lets evaluate specific locations. Vermont: Affordable in towns close to good hills, so, that's a possibility. But, it's Vermont. Do you really want to live in that state? Fake snow, mud season, black fly season, heroin everywhere, even, I'll betcha, near some ski hills, from the look of things. I never got ski bumming in Vermont, and the rampant poverty and drug addictions over the past decade has just made things worse. You'll always be saying, shit, I could be living in Colorado. So, Colorado: well, please, find me a shitty old two bedroom condo less than a half million near any decent ski hill, and I'll pay you a 5% finders fee. No scumbags and dirtbags and crazies as next door neighbors. Something that doesn't need six figures of work to withstand the next twenty years. No, I'm not living in Georgetown. Or Pagosa Springs. Givemeabreak. Taos gives me the creeps, and I always lock shit. SLC is affordable, but, I grew up in New Jersey, so, I ain't moving to some Mormon filled version of it. From what I can see, there is no town above Ogden, and, sorry about Ogden. Jackson? No. Like Aspen, or even Carbondale. No. Idaho? Don't really know, but, I'm skeptical there's affordable stuff outside of Boise, and, I'm not living in Boise.

The only place I've found is Driggs, and that's only for the winter. I road bike, not mtb, so I need that in warm weather. Sucks over there. Sucks in most places out west. And that's a longer season.

So, you tell me counselor. Find me this affordable nirvana. The clown is all ears.

[iceman]

Huh? Aren't bills evidence that you owe money? -- unless you are the one sending out the bills.

I have no debt but plenty of tax, insurance, utility, HOA, landscaping, etc. etc. etc. bills

[zion zig zag]

So, Colorado: well, please, find me a shitty old two bedroom condo less than a half million near any decent ski hill, and I'll pay you a 5% finders fee.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...1-90987#photo8

Well, that took 30 seconds.

[Benny Profane]

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...1-90987#photo8

Well, that took 30 seconds.

You're very white, I see. Do you work for a living?

[GeezerSteve]

Ski Town is not an ambiguous term in my book. Maybe yours. My definition, is, simply, no more than thirty minutes (and that's stretching it) to the lift on a powder day.
* * *
Now, you are arguing from the world of the abstract, I assume, but, with that criteria, lets evaluate specific locations. [anti-VT/CO/WY/ID rant omitted]
* * *
So, you tell me counselor. Find me this affordable nirvana. The clown is all ears.

Well for starters, it seems you're working with a restrictive definition of "skiing" to include only lift-served skiing. For many, skiing includes XC skiing, ski touring and hippy sticking (fishscaling on Forest Service roads). Per that broader definition, there are 10 or 20 or 50 times more qualifying towns within 30 minutes of good skiing.

Second, you've restricted your definition of "good skiing" to powder days. Pow days are great, but all skiing is fun, and some non-pow days qualify as great. Some of the best skiing in our part of the world is corn snow touring in May and June. And most retirees I know in their 60s and 70s seem to have plenty o' fun on groomers. Key to happiness #1: low expectations.

Third, in view of our ostensible agreement that controlling costs is the key, I gotta push back at your 30 minute to powder requirement. See above re restricting "good skiing" definition to powder only. Furthermore, because (we agree) cost is key, 40 or 45 minutes to powder skiing is fine if that's what it takes to be in a place with an affordable cost of living -- and that's even more true if XC skiing, touring and hippy sticking is 15-30 minutes away. If you're retired, what is the problem with an additional 15 minutes of driving?

Also, the place is filled with skiers, and the people who work in the industry that lives off those local skiers, and the visiting skiers. .

Not true of most towns in the West that are proximate to good skiing. Only an NYC ski tourist would think that.

I road bike, not mtb, so I need that in warm weather. Sucks over there. Sucks in most places out west.

Wrong wrong wrong. The road biking in central and E OR and WA is outstanding, as good as any in the U.S., better than anything in the E U.S. I know a bit about this.

Idaho? Don't really know, but, I'm skeptical there's affordable stuff outside of Boise, and, I'm not living in Boise.

The only place I've found is Driggs. . . .

The only thing Driggs has going for it over Boise is Targhee, which is a great hill, but everything else tips in favor of Boise. Have you actually spent time in the Boise area? I could live there, although I prefer central WA for access to much longer spring/summer touring season, better mountain travel after ski season and better road cycling.

Conclusion: You are working with limited information, restrictive definitions of "skiing" and impaired by preexisting bias. Take a lap.

[4matic]

I like simple drawdown calculator to play with.

https://www.calcxml.com/calculators/...-my-money-last

[zion zig zag]

You're very white, I see. Do you work for a living?

Well I do live in Ogden.

But anyway, shall I quote your post again? You made the terms, pay up.

[iceman]

That's gotta be more than $37

[liv2ski]

Reno made my girlfriend cry.

My wife too. Her exact words were "no way am I living in this brown dirt pile of nothingness that is full of meth heads".
Me, "but it is cheap and close to Tahoe"
Her,

[Benny Profane]

Well for starters, it seems you're working with a restrictive definition of "skiing" to include only lift-served skiing. For many, skiing includes XC skiing, ski touring and hippy sticking (fishscaling on Forest Service roads). Per that broader definition, there are 10 or 20 or 50 times more qualifying towns within 30 minutes of good skiing.

Second, you've restricted your definition of "good skiing" to powder days. Some of the best skiing in our part of the world is corn snow touring in May and June.

Third, in view of our ostensible agreement that controlling costs is the key, I gotta push back at your 30 minute to powder requirement. See above re restricting "good skiing" definition to powder only. Furthermore, because (we agree) cost is key, 40 or 45 minutes to powder skiing is fine if that's what it takes to be in a place with an affordable cost of living -- and that's even more true if XC skiing, touring and hippy sticking is 15-30 minutes away. If you're retired, what is the problem with an additional 15 minutes of driving?

Not true of most towns in the West that are proximate to good skiing. Only an NYC ski tourist would think that.

Wrong wrong wrong. The road biking in central and E OR and WA is outstanding, as good as any in the U.S., better than anything in the E U.S. I know a bit about this.

The only thing Driggs has going for it over Boise is Targhee, which is a great hill, but everything else tips in favor of Boise. Have you actually spent time in the Boise area? I could live there, although I prefer central WA for access to much longer spring/summer touring season, better mountain travel after ski season and better road cycling.

Conclusion: You are working with limited information, restrictive definitions of "skiing" and impaired by preexisting bias. Take a lap.

Total fail, counselor. You know why? "The only thing Driggs has over Boise is Targhee." Jezuz. 500 inches plus average, vs, what, strip malls and fucking Bogus.

No, you take two laps.

[Bunion 2020]

I like simple drawdown calculator to play with.

https://www.calcxml.com/calculators/...-my-money-last

Great tool. thx

[dan_pdx]

I plugged in some numbers. The year-by-year portfolio graph shows an ending worth range from $500K to $6.5 million, which is kinda worthless.

It's not about how much money is left at the end of your life, that's tangential to the question here -
it's the % of scenarios in which you run out of money. From the site: For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 50 years. FIRECalc found that 15 cycles failed, for a success rate of 82.8%.

I'm also a Moneymustache reader, though I have been doing a lot of face punchable things lately like pay for dogsitting.

[Benny Profane]

My wife too. Her exact words were "no way am I living in this brown dirt pile of nothingness that is full of meth heads".
Me, "but it is cheap and close to Tahoe"
Her,

I was so naive. I gave her a hug and said, don't worry baby, just shopping. I'm on your side. And that was when homes were still at the bottom from the crash. No state taxes. I even went to see those brand new Del Webb homes west of town, right on 80. Awesome values, and perfect size. But, it was all dirt.

Sent from my SM-G900V using TGR Forums mobile app

[El Chupacabra]

Firecalc and cfiresim are both variations on the same type of FIRE calculator. I like Firecalc more.

Both let you project likely success or failure rates for future withdrawal %'s. I think it's helpful for planning.

There are a ton of FIRE sites with helpful info. The Money Mustache site is one, there's one from JL Collins with a good investment series of posts, and the Bogleheads site has a very good wiki on investments and portfolios.

[GeezerSteve]

Total fail, counselor. You know why? "The only thing Driggs has over Boise is Targhee." Jezuz. 500 inches plus average, vs, what, strip malls and fucking Bogus.

500" is baked into "only thing Driggs has over Boise is Targhee." Duh. Strawman shit. Re your other comments, it's obvious that you haven't spent much time in and around Boise. Boise proper is coming into its own, has places with a nice vibe, cool music scene, emerging artsy fartsy community, 10 times more livable than anything in Driggs. Some people call Boise "the new Portland." : ) Anyway, Boise is down on my list of cities/towns proximate to skiing, so far down the list that it's irrelevant to me. But it's way the fuck better than Driggs. ETA: Urban, hip Boise defies potato jokes and other Idaho stereotypes

BTW, yesterday was ski day 25 for the season. How many you got?

[jackstraw]

You're very white, I see. Do you work for a living?

Ha! Coming from the guys who just said Taos gives him the creeps. Not white enough for you there Benny?

[Benny Profane]

Ha! Coming from the guys who just said Taos gives him the creeps. Not white enough for you there Benny?

Taos was full of junkies way before Vermont. And, yeah, I don't want to live in a place where the population is pissed off people of color that don't like you. I did that in my twenties, when I had the energy. But, I gotta admit, some of the coolest music I've heard around lifts and bars over the past few years is in that town. Nice mix.