Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I usually look at a combo of GFS and euro models and overall storm track. Details are sketchy over 6-7 days out, but it can still give you a better idea if it'll be dry or not. Opensnow already predicting a storm track change in the second half of dec. Joel is good at what he does.

That's a bit different (and more realistic) than statements of multi-week pattern changes and wet spells. For the next 10 days models are in good agreement (deterministic, ensemble and reforecast) so one would indeed believe in a good chance of snow. I'd find it hard to say confidently that it looks better than climatology at +2wks.

My reading is less that Joel is predicting a storm track change for second half of Dec, more that he's speculating at potential and looking at the good model agreement for the next 10-14 days (not many firm statements and a question mark on his map) - IMHO Joel is more realistic about predictability than other weather "pundits". (Few pundits indicate their skill with verification - it's easy to make forecasts, less easy to show that you have skill.)

PappaG's call that he's as good as anyone else at 3 wks might well be true ... maybe fear of that Bama t-shirt even adds some skill.

[F.D.V.]

http://coavalanche.info/weather/fcst...ge=85&var=S003

Can I say FUCK YES ULLR! FUCK YES!!

[BFD]

I'll say Fuck. Made the mistake of planning to visit sister in Denver for the holidays. Are you really getting excited about the possibility of 7" in the next 84 hours or am I missing something there.

[F.D.V.]

Beginning at ~36 hours and continuing to the end of the model you will see moisture begin in the PNW and gradully work it's way down California, before taking an oh so perfect swing to the right across Northern Nevada, stacking the moisture at the bottom, and the spinning to the NNE right at Colorado. The latter part of this story is out of the model right now. As of mid-day tomorrow we should get a better idea of what exactly is going to happen, but, my "fuck yes" request is directed more at the fact that this has been dry so far and any "gifts" from Ullr will be much appreciated and met with great joy, praise, and tits!

I'll say Fuck. Made the mistake of planning to visit sister in Denver for the holidays. Are you really getting excited about the possibility of 7" in the next 84 hours or am I missing something there.

[gratzo]

I look at the long range model ensemble forecast (when one model is run many times with slightly different initial conditions). Look at the average of the ensemble and get a feel for the long range pattern. Not details, but a general feel. Canadian ensemble and GFS (American) ensemble both generally show a storm track through the US (not too far north, not too far south). I'm not sure how that compares to climatology, but it's a lot better than the month of November, so this is the storm track change. Here's the GFS ensemble: white lines are the "official" model run and the other lines so other possibilities (ensemble member).

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHG...sloopmref.html

JOEL

[gratzo]

Also, here's this snippet, independent of the models

THE MEDIUM RANGE PLAYERS APPEAR TO BE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
RIDGING COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER HUDSON BAY... WHICH
OFFER POSITIVE FEEDBACK BETWEEN EACH OTHER. THESE CENTERS
TELECONNECT TO TROUGHING THROUGH THE WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INTERMITTENT WEAKER RIDGING/TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discuss...hp?disc=pmdepd

JOEL

[Rontele]

Finally something to talk about other than the butthurt.

[Ireallyliketoski2]

Cold on the morning run today, but it was nice to be running on snow covered trails again. Berthoud should be going off after this latest storm.

[bean]

Finally something to talk about other than the butthurt.

Still plenty of butthurt to go around.

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Sno...lotstate13.gif

[hatchgreenchile]

There’s always some CO resort feeling the butthurt. I can’t think of a season where every mountain range is getting above average snowfall (edit, maybe 2007-2008).

We’re still well below average, but who knows, maybe the storm they’re already calling for next Monday is a monster. All it takes is one storm.

[montanaskier]

Snowed all day yesterday, very light snow but was great to feel like winter. Great few days in Eagle Cty.

[NippleHighPow]

Cold on the morning run today, but it was nice to be running on snow covered trails again. Berthoud should be going off after this latest storm.

Went up yesterday and it is still SUPER boney. New snow did a little and they got about an inch while we were there (around 9am - 11 am), but we need A LOT more to make anything worth skiing ski-able.

[JaytaeMoney]

Aspen is skiing pretty damn well right now, lots of rope drops on the upper mountain today and yesterday and I have yet to hit anything major. No surprise that its getting skied off quick tho.

[garuda]

Good detail from NWS GJT:

CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW CONVERGING SOLUTIONS AS THE DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO...WITH QG DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SREF INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS LOCATED IN CENTRAL COLORADO. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR 2-3 RUNS TO START NAILING DOWN DETAILS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL ACROSS SWRN COLORADO (SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL)...BUT A TROWAL SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT AND WOULD
IMPACT THE NRN HALF. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL TREND POPS HIGHER BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS.

THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND PUNCH AS A NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT COLD TROUGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING JOY TO THOSE WHO DESIRE SNOW AS THIS 1-2 WINTER STORM PUNCH YIELDS HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR A THREE DAY PERIOD THAT LASTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUT THE MODEL SPREADS IS BECOMING LARGER BY THIS TIME...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH THAT THIS WOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH INTO COLORADO ON SUNDAY NIGHT (IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SHOWS THIS AS WELL). WHILE DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN FAVORS WINTER STORMS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO IN THE DAYS 3 THROUGH 6 PERIOD. FAIR MODEL CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION FOR NEXT TUESDAY...BUT ITS PROGRESSIVE AND NOT A BLOCKING PATTERN. BOTTOM LINE...MORE WINTRY DECEMBER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...ONLY THE DETAILS ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT.

[Rontele]

I don't know much about weather. I like to watch trends and it seems to me when in November the pattern started to shift, the storms would weaken as they came into Colorado. Now, it seems the opposite, the models are weaker further out and strengthen the storms as they come in. No scientific basis to that, but just noticing what I see.

[Kevo]

Cold on the morning run today, but it was nice to be running on snow covered trails again. Berthoud should be going off after this latest storm.

Yeah...no. There was absolutely no coverage there at all 10 days ago. A little 10 inch storm will not make Berthoud "go off".

[Rontele]

You guys really need to learn sarcasm.

[donkeykong]

if I'm wrong, can someone please tell me why/how (I am not a meteorologist.)

Seems you answered your own question

[MakersTeleMark]

Butthurtz > Armchair Meteorology.

[Crampedon]

I bought another plane ticket to Co.

It will snow.

Simple.

See the earlier posts.

[pfluffenmeister]

^^^ good, i've got the 15th-20th off and plan on hitting Silverton for opening week.


EDIT: Special Weather Statement issued December 11 at 5:04PM PST by NWS

...A WINTRY WEEKEND POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO... A SERIES OF MOIST PACIFIC STORMS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THE WEEK COMES TO AN END. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEAST AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SEND MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND STORM DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THIS TIME...THE SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS. THE PATTERN REMAINS ENERGETIC AS THIS STORM QUICKLY DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONGER WINDS AND HAS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW...WITH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO FAVORED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND MINOR SHIFTS COULD RESULT IN MORE OR LESS SNOWFALL IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS THROUGH LOCAL MEDIA...THE GRAND JUNCTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GJT...AND OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Seems you answered your own question

Indeed, I wouldn't call myself a meteorologist, though I have dabbled in similar arts.

Answer to my question seems to be that some are looking at the max range of GFS/CMC and loosely calling it 3wks; fair enough.

[Ireallyliketoski2]

Here's the 7 day forecast for summit county for everyone's viewing pleasure.

Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -2. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Calm wind.
Friday A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Calm wind.
Friday Night A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.
Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26.
Saturday Night A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9.
Sunday A slight chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 24.
Sunday Night A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.
Monday A slight chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 21.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 6.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

[pappag]

Lovely imagery here:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ip...K_PRECIP_WINDS


Looks like SW CO wins this weekend but the entire state goes nutty next Wednesday through Saturday. And my money says Telluride/Silverton is where you'll want to be for New Year's. #bamacansuckadick

Where are you pulling this 3 week forecast from? What makes it "look good"? i.e. what is your source or diagnostic??

How's that for looking good?

[hatchgreenchile]

Lovely imagery here:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ip...K_PRECIP_WINDS

Looks like SW CO wins this weekend but the entire state goes nutty next Wednesday through Saturday. And my money says Telluride/Silverton is where you'll want to be for New Year's. #bamacansuckadick

How's that for looking good?

Every 5+ day forecast I’ve seen says two things:

It’s going to stay cold.
We’re right in the storm track.

Snow totals and specifics are tough, but that’s all you can ask for. All it takes is one big storm to sit on CO for a few days and we’re back on pace for a quality season.