Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**gratzo** · 12-09-2012, 07:07 AM

Just a quick post on CAIC's model page. It's EXCELLENT! But remember, no model is exactly right. Click around and look at all the data and get a feel for when some models do well and when they do poorly. Now go out and enjoy the POW! What the heck happened in ASPEN? 15 inches? Wowzers!

JOEL

**montanaskier** · 12-09-2012, 07:20 AM

11 and 9....about 6 at the house. Nice storm.

**Riverdown** · 12-09-2012, 07:30 AM

Originally Posted by gratzo

Just a quick post on CAIC's model page. It's EXCELLENT! But remember, no model is exactly right. Click around and look at all the data and get a feel for when some models do well and when they do poorly. Now go out and enjoy the POW! What the heck happened in ASPEN? 15 inches? Wowzers!

JOEL

Gonna go test that out this morning. Any idea on the severity of the I-70 shitshow this afternoon? Love 8:15am Monday flights out of DIA.

**Blizzard_of_Oz** · 12-09-2012, 08:01 AM

What is this strange white stuff falling from the sky??
Beware of us Tele gapers at the Basin.

**skiingislife** · 12-09-2012, 08:08 AM

Originally Posted by gratzo

Just a quick post on CAIC's model page. It's EXCELLENT! But remember, no model is exactly right. Click around and look at all the data and get a feel for when some models do well and when they do poorly. Now go out and enjoy the POW! What the heck happened in ASPEN? 15 inches? Wowzers!

JOEL

Tits or GTFO

**BDKeg** · 12-09-2012, 01:19 PM

this storm was a success, seemed like everybody got their fair share except the san juans.

7 at the ski area
8-13 in the backcountry

Keep it coming ullr

**The SnowShow** · 12-09-2012, 01:31 PM

I seriously got all giddy when I saw the IPW and Longs coated in all white this morning. Keep it coming Ullr!

**montanaskier** · 12-09-2012, 02:49 PM

Nice morning at Beaver Creek. Super crowded but my 1st run was deep and I got a rope drop that was deep. Good times!

**MJbumper1121** · 12-09-2012, 02:50 PM

Went to breckenfridge via 285 (didn't see one car on the road until 10 miles outside of town). It was skied out after my first run (on the lift at 8:40), though patrol dropped a few ropes which extended the fun a bit longer. It was pretty crowded as to be expected. Overall, fun to ski soft snow but left at 12 to avoid traffic on the way home.

**MakersTeleMark** · 12-09-2012, 02:51 PM

Keystone skied really well for what they reported. I guess everyone went to Vail.

**montanaskier** · 12-09-2012, 03:26 PM

^^^...wait....what?

**Lindahl** · 12-09-2012, 04:18 PM

Got several ~rope drops at BC. Skied really well all day. Pounded bumps and chop when the ropes stopped. Couldn't resist poaching the downhill. Sickening sweet run. Sooo good! Stuck on Vail Pass though. Bullshit traffic.

**capulin overdrive** · 12-09-2012, 06:24 PM

Originally Posted by BDKeg

this storm was a success, seemed like everybody got their fair share except the san juans.

7 at the ski area
8-13 in the backcountry

Keep it coming ullr

Thought you guys were gonna goose egg, wasn't hardly jack squat on the pow cam before 9pm.

**BDKeg** · 12-09-2012, 06:27 PM

Originally Posted by capulin overdrive

Thought you guys were gonna goose egg, wasn't hardly jack squat on the pow cam before 9pm.

yea didn't start coming down heavy until 10-11pm at night

**F.D.V.** · 12-09-2012, 09:34 PM

Thank you Ullr!

**Wildman** · 12-09-2012, 09:59 PM

Great Tour up into Butler Gulch today. Looked like 6-8 inches of new snow. We headed up to the saddle and did a few laps. It was for me, the first day that really felt like winter. Cold, deep snow, (a few sharks). We observed some settling and cracking on NE aspects.

Car on fire near Empire Exit...

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anyone know anything about this? hope all parties were able to bail before it blew up

Looks like winter to me...

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Shitty Iphone Pic

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You get the idea

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**hatchgreenchile** · 12-09-2012, 10:23 PM

Good stuff Wildman.

Looks like another 4-8" in the WP area by Tuesday morning. Who knows what the storm next weekend will bring.

**F.D.V.** · 12-10-2012, 10:15 AM

Who cares...as long as there is a storm I am VERY happy!

Thanks again Ullr!

Originally Posted by Cold_Smokin'

Good stuff Wildman.

Looks like another 4-8" in the WP area by Tuesday morning. Who knows what the storm next weekend will bring.

**Banh Mi** · 12-10-2012, 12:18 PM

A foot at beaver creek, ands its dumping again right now. Anther 6 inches might happen...

**pappag** · 12-10-2012, 12:21 PM

Next 3 weeks look good. Not necessarily a ton of snow, but fairly consistent. Looks like we may get hit fairly good between Christmas and NYE which makes sense since I'll be out of town.

**Blizzard_of_Oz** · 12-10-2012, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by PappaG

Next 3 weeks look good. Not necessarily a ton of snow, but fairly consistent. Looks like we may get hit fairly good between Christmas and NYE which makes sense since I'll be out of town.

Where are you pulling this 3 week forecast from? What makes it "look good"? i.e. what is your source or diagnostic?

I keep seeing this talk of multi-week forecasts and pattern changes and am wondering if I am missing some major component of mid- to long-range forecasting? I'd really like to know what it is that I'm missing. In terms of climatology we most likely will see a number of storms in the next few weeks, so if we do, it is not out of the ordinary. I want to know what diagnostics people are using to try and beat the skill of climatology at 3-weeks range.

(As a follow-on from MS's comments from some pages back) As far as I can see, jetstream position has a predictability of about a week (with respect to it being useful for predicting snowfall in CO), so I don't see diagnosing its current position as an indication of some multi-week "pattern change" - if I'm wrong, can someone please tell me why/how (I am not a meteorologist). There are seasonal changes in the jetstream and its position has some long term correlation with the ENSO signal etc., but where is the 3 week forecast coming from?

**BDKeg** · 12-10-2012, 02:12 PM

Originally Posted by Blizzard_of_Oz

Where are you pulling this 3 week forecast from? What makes it "look good"? i.e. what is your source or diagnostic?

I keep seeing this talk of multi-week forecasts and pattern changes and am wondering if I am missing some major component of mid- to long-range forecasting? I'd really like to know what it is that I'm missing. In terms of climatology we most likely will see a number of storms in the next few weeks, so if we do, it is not out of the ordinary. I want to know what diagnostics people are using to try and beat the skill of climatology at 3-weeks range.

(As a follow-on from MS's comments from some pages back) As far as I can see, jetstream position has a predictability of about a week (with respect to it being useful for predicting snowfall in CO), so I don't see diagnosing its current position as an indication of some multi-week "pattern change" - if I'm wrong, can someone please tell me why/how (I am not a meteorologist). There are seasonal changes in the jetstream and its position has some long term correlation with the ENSO signal etc., but where is the 3 week forecast coming from?

I usually look at a combo of GFS and euro models and overall storm track. Details are sketchy over 6-7 days out, but it can still give you a better idea if it'll be dry or not. Opensnow already predicting a storm track change in the second half of dec. Joel is good at what he does.

**pappag** · 12-10-2012, 02:15 PM

My crystal ball says it will snow. Isn't that just as good as what anyone else says? If I'm wrong, I'll wear that extra small Bama baby t-shirt that Rontele will likely be off the hook for.

**BDKeg** · 12-10-2012, 02:21 PM

"The model has more of a -AO (negative Arctic Oscillation) look to it for this three-month period as it appears that the polar vortex is shifted farther south away from the pole and into north-central Canada. "