Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[gratzo]

Jackson is Denver's new East Vail.

Ha, that's pretty funny.

1) A little bit of snow for Saturday night, but don't get too excited.

2) Warm and dry early next week.

3) Take longer-term forecasts with a grain of salt. The further out in time the models forecast, the more "climatology" (i.e. average) the model uses in its forecast. This will always tend to pull the modeled forecast back toward "average", so long-range forecasts will generally look more like the average than super warm/sunny or super cold/snowy.

JOEL

[Rontele]

...and now we are trending back in the wrong direction...

[montanaskier]

come on warm temps and sunshine...more of that please. HIGH PRESSURE baby! It's deck season!

[cmsummit]

...and now we are trending back in the wrong direction...

motherfucker.

BOOOOO......

[linvillegorge]

Is this the year where we have a serious drought and all that standing beetle kill goes up in a Yellowstone-esque fire from hell?

[montanaskier]

Is this the year where we have a serious drought and all that standing beetle kill goes up in a Yellowstone-esque fire from hell?

outside the damage to structures and possible loss of life, it would probably help the forest....not possible to have a big one and not have massive structure losses or loss of life in an area like this vs Yellowstone.

[gratzo]

Just released (or at least I just heard about it):
http://www.powdermag.com/latest-news...-pass-holders/

[Signed In White]

Just released (or at least I just heard about it):
http://www.powdermag.com/latest-news...-pass-holders/

Does that count for Epic Local pass holders as well? Hell of an offer from Big Sky anyways, mad props to them.

[Hott Butt Mud]

You have to book lodging, but still pretty cool deal.



The deal gives free skiing for Vail Resorts Epic Pass holders when they book lodging with Big Sky Central Reservations and ask for the Epic Package. Friends without passes, but who are booked with an Epic Pass holder, can ski for $74 per day.

[linvillegorge]

outside the damage to structures and possible loss of life, it would probably help the forest....not possible to have a big one and not have massive structure losses or loss of life in an area like this vs Yellowstone.

Yep.

The wife and I hiked into Lost Lake north of Vail a couple of 4th of July's ago. All the standing beetle kill made me a little nervous, but it was calm, so we went ahead and setup the tent. We were the only people around. Sure enough, around dusk, a breeze kicked up. The breeze intensified into some pretty decent gusts and I'm starting to rethink this. I look at the situation and confirm that I have the tent setup where any tree falling pushed by the prevailing winds will fall well clear of us, but I also see that there are a few downed trees that have fallen in another direction. I'm contemplating whether we should stay or go when what sounded like a rifle shot echoes from about a 1/4 of a mile up the ridge. Shortly thereafter the sound of the tree coming crashing to Earth reaches us. I looked at my wife and just said, "Welp, looks like we're packing up and heading out of here in the dark cuz I ain't staying here tonight."

I don't do much adventuring around the Vail area and I had no clue how much beetle kill was around there until that weekend. Brown as far as the eye can see.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

3) Take longer-term forecasts with a grain of salt. The further out in time the models forecast, the more "climatology" (i.e. average) the model uses in its forecast. This will always tend to pull the modeled forecast back toward "average", so long-range forecasts will generally look more like the average than super warm/sunny or super cold/snowy.
JOEL

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm wondering if that's correct. For the human issued forecast, sure, there can be a push to climatology - but as far as I know, the models run a deterministic path (out to say, 16 days for GFS & ECMWF). Even with an ensemble simulation each member is a deterministic forecast with no assimilation towards climatology (otherwise we would simply go back to statistical forecasting). Assimilation (of real time data, not climatology) is performed up to the start of the forecast period and then the model runs free.

The only way I could see this sort of thing happening is if the sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions are relaxed towards climatology as the run progresses, but that doesn't mean local model results will necessarily trend towards climatology within 16 days (the GFS operational documentation on this is not great, so I don't know if that's the case or not - I know it starts out with the current SST analysis, but then am not sure). I believe ECMWF update the SST's during their simulations from a separate ocean model that is not directly coupled, meaning they don't push to a climatology.

(While I've worked with some parts of these models, forecasting and operational systems are not my forte, so maybe I have missed something???)

[smmokan]

Does that count for Epic Local pass holders as well? Hell of an offer from Big Sky anyways, mad props to them.

The lift ticket is basically thrown in for free after they gouge you for lodging.

[lpkdz]

Blizzard,
I'm not very knowledgeable about the details of medium range forecasting, but I do lurk in a few forums (trying to learn a thing or two) with some pros/very experienced meteorology old timers, and can tell you a few things that I've learned. Firstly, the ensembles tend to be more accurate for longer range. And also anything approaching 270-300+ hours no one puts any stock in, so regardless of how they come up with a mid range forecast, it's generally considered nearly useless.

They've been debating over there about whether or not a big change is coming. Basically the GFS has been showing change at or beyond 10 days for weeks now... but just keeps pushing it back. The argument is that as the GFS has improved with time, and that since these improvements have been made, it has almost always been right about large pattern changes, but jumps the gun on timing. If you're a glass half full kind of person, a lot of the models are corresponding with each other indicating a big change in the works. Once again, the timing is really unsure. Most of those guys seem to be optimistic that a change will come, though probably not until at least after the 15th, if not later. Glass half empty types continue to hammer the fact that this change has yet to move up in the models, and just continues to hang at or beyond 300 hours. This year has basically done nothing anyone predicted. NOAA got their ass handed to them on their long range forecasts, and they are usually pretty good. Based on the norms and logic, this horrible horrible high pressure should pass. I am sticking glass half full and hoping for a change in the latter half of the month. If nothing else, so I don't go totally nuts. Maybe I should get the climbing gear back out...

[montanaskier]

lots of options on lodging from super fancy slopeside homes to dirtbag really. WhiteWater Inn is the cheapest and is at the mouth of the canyon down the road just a bit from the mountain. Huntley Lodge is a GREAT on mountain option and you normally get a free breakfast buffet when you stay at the Huntley. If you've never skied BS, bring skis you don't mind getting some base damage on. Even in epic deep years, it is a steep rocky mountain. We're thinking of making the trip and we may be looking for partners.

weather wise, same ole song and dance. I wouldn't expect much if any snow this weekend and it warms right back up next week. No change in site....aint that a shitter.

[PowTrees]

Today: Sunny, with a high near 44. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm (at 8,200' elev)

Split Pattern predicted

[Name Redacted]

We are too close to the sun right now, that's the problem:

http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/01...py-perihelion/

[knumbskull]

Truly depressing start to the season. On the plus side the mountain biking in the desert is great right now and the weather may as well be spring.

[Kevo]

Someone posted this photo to Vail's facebook page a few days ago. Back bowls. Looking like June or July in January.

[Crampedon]

Looks like grim death. Edge of window's?

I think you can just see a chair 5 tower behind the pines.

[montanaskier]

that pic is from GoldenBear. It is posted in the Eagle/Summit thread and then has been posted on FB a bunch. Vail took it down a few times but eventually just left it up.

[bean]

Very slight improvement in the 6-10 and 8-14. Not getting my hopes up.

[Gregger]

Hackuwather is calling for a miserable Feb...

[Rontele]

Trending back in the right direction with low confidence.

[funkendrenchman]

Hackuwather is calling for a miserable Feb...

We should look back to November to see what they forecasted for Dec and Jan.

I could only last 2 runs on Ajax today. I'm hiking the bowl every other day and getting my bike out next week. I'm also adding Anchorage to my farewatcher.

From aspenweather.net.....

"Well I have a few statistics for everybody today. I’m sharing these stats because I have received countless emails asking how bad is this winter compared to other ones and where do we stand as far as history is concerned. So here’s the deal my friends. For the months of November/December and up until today which is January 4th, there has only been 28.2 inches of snow at the Aspen water plant and 26.0 inches of snow in downtown Aspen. These numbers are of course horribly dry. The normal snow from November 1st through January 4th should be right about 50 inches so we have only received about 55% of normal snowfall. Another way of saying it is we are 45% below normal. There is precedent for this in the past. As of right now (Jan 4th) this is the 8th driest Nov/Dec/Early January on record since 1934. If we fail to receive a foot of snow in town this month we quickly jump to the 4th driest Nov/Dec/Jan on record. Lets hope this does not happen but as of this morning the models are very dry through January 20th"


AND what is not mentioned in that blurb is that half of that 26" fell in the 1st half of November. I think if he pulled Nov 15-Jan 4 numbers it would be much worse.

[montanaskier]

We should look back to November to see what they forecasted for Dec and Jan.

I could only last 2 runs on Ajax today. I'm hiking the bowl every other day and getting my bike out next week. I'm also adding Anchorage to my farewatcher.

From aspenweather.net.....

"Well I have a few statistics for everybody today. I’m sharing these stats because I have received countless emails asking how bad is this winter compared to other ones and where do we stand as far as history is concerned. So here’s the deal my friends. For the months of November/December and up until today which is January 4th, there has only been 28.2 inches of snow at the Aspen water plant and 26.0 inches of snow in downtown Aspen. These numbers are of course horribly dry. The normal snow from November 1st through January 4th should be right about 50 inches so we have only received about 55% of normal snowfall. Another way of saying it is we are 45% below normal. There is precedent for this in the past. As of right now (Jan 4th) this is the 8th driest Nov/Dec/Early January on record since 1934. If we fail to receive a foot of snow in town this month we quickly jump to the 4th driest Nov/Dec/Jan on record. Lets hope this does not happen but as of this morning the models are very dry through January 20th"

lots of sunshine pumpers out there like snowforecast.com and such that keep saying "2 weeks" or mid Jan....but the realistic folks I read seem to already be pretty doom and gloom for Jan.

NOAA 30 day looks better