Check Out Our Shop
Page 311 of 1711 FirstFirst ... 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 ... LastLast
Results 7,751 to 7,775 of 42771

Thread: Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

  1. #7751
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    6,912
    Some good to come out of this: discounted gear should be aplenty this spring, next season will feel all the more epic even if just an average year, and you're never too old to take frontside backcountry skills to the park.

    Personally, I'm holding out for a 400" dump at the end of February into March.

  2. #7752
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    13,629
    Quote Originally Posted by PappaG View Post
    Some good to come out of this: discounted gear should be aplenty this spring, next season will feel all the more epic even if just an average year, and you're never too old to take frontside backcountry skills to the park.

    Personally, I'm holding out for a 400" dump at the end of February into March.

    Yeah, I've already been noticing some great deals on snowmobiles, might be the perfect time to pick one up. Just won't be able to use it till next season.

  3. #7753
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Dillon, CO
    Posts
    524
    Quote Originally Posted by PappaG View Post
    Some good to come out of this:...and you're never too old to take frontside backcountry skills to the park.
    This. I'm having an awesome year. I'm the biggest park JONG, and it's great to be starting something completely new that will help make me a better rider in the long run...assuming I don't end up in the ER
    “I mean god damn, who could believe that shit.” Greg Noll, Riding Giants

  4. #7754
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Boulder
    Posts
    490
    Quote Originally Posted by FrankZappa View Post
    fify: The only function of Meteorological forecasting is to make Astrology seem respectable.
    I have no problem laughing at meteorology and at myself, but this is only partly true. If you're looking for 10-30 day forecasts, yes - there's little to NO accuracy, at least not at the detailed level that we want when looking for powder days.

    However, in the 4-7 day time frame, there's pretty decent accuracy, actually. Heading to the Tetons over New Years was planned nearly a week ahead of time and with very good results. Lots of pictures and videos here: http://opensnow.com/blog/2012/01/sto...g-101-wyoming/

    As for the talk about the GFS going toward climatology, I am also NOT an expert at modeling, but I think the GFS tends toward climatology further out while the European model is allowed to run as normal. Will try to do some more digging on this, but basically it almost doesn't matter - anything beyond 7-10 days in any model should be treated more as a pretty picture than a weather forecast.

    For this weekend, another splitting storm. Similar storm track to the one that came through a few days before Christmas. A couple inches for most of the state with a N or NE wind, a few more inches east of the divide and in the San Juans.

    JOEL
    The artist formerly known as Colorado Powder Forecast: http://www.opensnow.com

  5. #7755
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Kin Tucky
    Posts
    78
    Gratzo, Looked like a great time in Jackson. Your right, those burgers are great. We will invade your state and pillage your beer next week, snow would have been great but we will manage....

  6. #7756
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Eagle County
    Posts
    12,637
    http://earthsky.org/earth/missing-wi...u-s-its-coming

    basically, no change in site for the West.....


    also, the CO River Basin in now at 57% of average
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

  7. #7757
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Victor, ID
    Posts
    737
    Quote Originally Posted by montanaskier View Post
    http://earthsky.org/earth/missing-wi...u-s-its-coming

    basically, no change in site for the West.....


    also, the CO River Basin in now at 57% of average
    did you search google for "more butthurt in store for colorado skiers" to get that? I'm calling bullshit...

  8. #7758
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    6,912
    Keystone was fun last night. All you butthurt losers keep complaining and continue not to crowd the radness.

  9. #7759
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Eagle County
    Posts
    12,637
    Ha....the positive side of that and all the talk all winter has been the how the postive AO has hurt our winter. I think the only positive with that is that with weather north and east, hopefully a few storms will sag south and west to give us snow...but the overall pattern isn't one that is very good for the CO mtns.
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

  10. #7760
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Aspen
    Posts
    1,540
    I need to stop reading this thread every day

  11. #7761
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Ten Mile Vistas
    Posts
    4,043
    Quote Originally Posted by JaytaeMoney View Post
    I need to stop reading this thread every day
    Funny, I was just thinking the same. I'm going to stop looking at any forecasts/outlooks/predictions out past 5-7 days. Gonna stick with Joel's forecasts and the NOAA point forecasts.
    Last edited by cmsummit; 01-05-2012 at 11:46 AM.
    Old's Cool.

  12. #7762
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    A Chamonix of the Mind
    Posts
    3,656
    The biggest problem is that you guys have NO imagination whatsoever. A great winter can be made anywhere and out of anything. . .

    "Buy the Fucking Plane Tickets!"
    -- Jack Tackle

  13. #7763
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Splat's Garage
    Posts
    4,287
    Can we start talking about fires?

    CO is probably going to burn this summer. I wonder if it's likely that we'll get back to near average snowpack? Seems like we're destined for a quick spring melt off which could lead to some severe dryness, that coupled with the severe butthurt, could lead to some widespread forest fires.

  14. #7764
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    cb, co
    Posts
    5,332
    [JoeStrummer]^^ Well I was all stoked to skate Blue Mesa until the NYE windstorm spread gravel all over the lake and turned perfect ice into gravel covered ice. Plus I heard someone fell through which freaks me out although I guess the guys that are really into skating the lake look for thin ice because it's faster.

    I'm going to ride my bike at Hartman's today. Not sure if I'll go with the short sleeve or the long sleeve- it's January in one of the coldest places in the lower 48, so it's a tough call and all.

  15. #7765
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Splat's Garage
    Posts
    4,287
    That's actually pretty sick that you can be riding Hartman's right now!

    That place is badass. Is there any snow there at all?

  16. #7766
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Three-O-Three
    Posts
    15,674
    Quote Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud View Post
    Can we start talking about fires?

    CO is probably going to burn this summer. I wonder if it's likely that we'll get back to near average snowpack? Seems like we're destined for a quick spring melt off which could lead to some severe dryness, that coupled with the severe butthurt, could lead to some widespread forest fires.
    Knowing our weather, it's going to start pouring rain in May and won't stop until September.

  17. #7767
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    cb, co
    Posts
    5,332
    Quote Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud View Post
    That's actually pretty sick that you can be riding Hartman's right now!

    That place is badass. Is there any snow there at all?
    100% open

  18. #7768
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    ColoRADo
    Posts
    5,957
    I want to ski park with PappaG...seriously.

    Also, on Saturday of this week I would like to propose a "Most Vert on your Epic Pass in one day" contest on the groomers of Breck or Keystone.

    Anyone in? Just keep in mind I may be rocking some 193 cm, 63 mm waisted Super G skis from 1999 to up my chances.
    You should have been here yesterday!

  19. #7769
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Aspen
    Posts
    9,565
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenboy View Post
    100% open
    As is Mushroom in Carbondale.

  20. #7770
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    PRB, CO
    Posts
    121
    Quote Originally Posted by gratzo View Post
    As for the talk about the GFS going toward climatology, I am also NOT an expert at modeling, but I think the GFS tends toward climatology further out while the European model is allowed to run as normal. Will try to do some more digging on this, but basically it almost doesn't matter - anything beyond 7-10 days in any model should be treated more as a pretty picture than a weather forecast.
    I have learned from colleagues at NOAA that GFS operates thus: the sea surface temperature (SST) boundary condition is relaxed from the analysis towards climatology (apparently on order of 30-45 day e-folding time ... the exact details are only in the code and I don't have the code, nor the time to deal with that). In simple terms the difference between the SST's and climatology is reduced by ~1/2.7183 every 30-45 days, i.e. boundary conditions do go towards climatology but very slowly relative to the 16-day forecast. Note that this is just the boundary conditions, not the atmosphere or land states. Hence, in the context of a 16-day forecast, I wouldn't really say that there is a tendency towards climatology. (The GFS is an atmosphere-land model, as opposed to the CFS, which includes an ocean model for longer range "forecasts".)

    Joel is right that skill drops off beyond 10 days - there is still a wee bit of skill out that far, but it's not really much use to us for looking at individual storms and snow. And for those that think forecasting hasn't improved over the years see below. ECMWF are the rock stars of medium range forecasting and their global skill levels are greater than other agencies.



    Sorry for the wx nerd deviation .. now back to your regularly scheduled butt hurt ...

  21. #7771
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    6,912
    Quote Originally Posted by PowTron View Post
    I want to ski park with PappaG...seriously.

    Also, on Saturday of this week I would like to propose a "Most Vert on your Epic Pass in one day" contest on the groomers of Breck or Keystone.

    Anyone in?
    Change it to Sunday, and I'm in (less crowds due to Donkey playoff game).

    I was averaging 2300' every 17 minutes last night at Keystone for 2 hours. I've top 40k once this year... would like to get at least 50.

  22. #7772
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    WHEREAS,
    Posts
    12,936
    Quote Originally Posted by funkendrenchman View Post
    As is Mushroom in Carbondale.
    Great to hear as I will be out over MLK weekend. Definitely bringing the bike.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  23. #7773
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    WHEREAS,
    Posts
    12,936
    Walk away from the ledge, montanaskier

    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  24. #7774
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Splat's Garage
    Posts
    4,287
    That map shows CO in the Neutral/Equal Chances zone mostly. We're still FUBAR!

  25. #7775
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Three-O-Three
    Posts
    15,674

Similar Threads

  1. Up to the Minute Colorado Backcountry Weather Conditions
    By AzureAbyss in forum General Ski / Snowboard Discussion
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 03-07-2011, 11:16 PM
  2. anti jinx, anti jinx, anti jinx thread
    By Benny Profane in forum General Ski / Snowboard Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 02-10-2006, 12:34 AM
  3. The Colorado crew STOKE thread.
    By Blurred Elevens in forum TGR Forum Archives
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 07-12-2004, 11:16 PM
  4. a REPLY without a thread...
    By Endlessseason in forum TGR Forum Archives
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 10-28-2003, 09:44 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •