Real Estate Crash thread

[Benny Profane]

Here's a question I was wondering after reading all this.

If your not paying your mortgage, why would you pay your property taxes?

Because that could end the game for the "homeowner" if that person doesn't pay the tax. The bank wants you in the house for the time being, but the local authorities could probably care less, and will have the Marshall on your property in no time of they don't get theirs. They have nothing to lose, not like the bank.

[mcsquared]

Haven't you guys ever heard of tax liens? Somebody who isn't paying their mortgage wouldn't pay their property taxes because you would get a grand total of 2 letters asking you nicely to pay them and then they would put a lien on the house and then sell the lien at an auction. Some investor would pay the taxes at this sale and the money they spent would start accumulating interest (18% or so in Colorado) and would get paid off when then house was sold regardless of how much it sold for. The governments always get their money.

[LeeLau]

What mcsquared said. Looked into some cheapo Arizona commercial Re and they had substantial (3+ years of local government liens). the Database is searchable on lexis/nexis and it showed up on title. So in this case (AZ) it really would be buyer beware.

Awesome graphical illustration of Vancouver's housing bubble

[ame="http://vimeo.com/11211712?hd=1"]Vancouver RE market rollercoaster on Vimeo[/ame]

[enlosandes]

Because that could end the game for the "homeowner" if that person doesn't pay the tax. The bank wants you in the house for the time being, but the local authorities could probably care less, and will have the Marshall on your property in no time of they don't get theirs. They have nothing to lose, not like the bank.

Out of curiosity, I checked in my home county in California and they don't issue a tax lein for 5 years. Seems like a foreclosure would happen first, no?

[mcsquared]

Out of curiosity, I checked in my home county in California and they don't issue a tax lein for 5 years. Seems like a foreclosure would happen first, no?

Pretty sure the 5 years is the length of the redemption period. i.e. how long the holder of the tax lien certificate has to wait before they can initiate their own foreclosure. And they have to renew it every year by paying the taxes each year.
[ame]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_lien_sale[/ame]

[liv2ski]

^^^Lee, that was fucking awesome. Thanks for the good laugh.

[Benny Profane]

Out of curiosity, I checked in my home county in California and they don't issue a tax lein for 5 years. Seems like a foreclosure would happen first, no?

Seriously, at this rate, who knows. The shit is really flying off the fan as we speak, and the water line is still rising in the real market. Case Schiller tells us that, if it wasn't for the bizarre California market and investors churning foreclosures elsewhere, there is no market to speak of using private financing. If interest rates go up, as they will soon, to probably in the 6-ish area, prices drop even more, and, more trouble all around. The banks are just gritting their teeth and smiling with government support fanning them and massaging their little necks.

I'm watching Blankfein stutter his way in front of Congress right now. What a weasel. If he still has his job this time next year, he's one powerful and evil fuck, too.

[cramer]

if it wasn't for the bizarre California market

i'm not sure whats bizarre about it. the housing prices are at prices not seen since the mid 90's in some areas. They are actually building 40 new houses in my neighborhood right now. All the foreclosures sold and a builder bought the land and foundations that were already laid before the previous builder foreclosed and walked from the project back in late 06 early 07. My area was battered by foreclosures when i moved in here. You cant find one now. Everything is short sales. People arent walking from homes anymore, they are short selling them instead. They knock a year or 2 off qualifying for a loan again by doing so.

I highly doubt we'll see the amount of REO's on the market like when i bought in the end of 2008. There will be some, but the majority of houses for sale are going to be short sales. The banks and the homeowners have wised up. My house has went up 2 straight months in value. And with 40 new houses hitting the market in my neighborhood, thats good news, not bad imo.

So far, 1.5 years later, its looking like i couldnt have bought at a better time for my situation. I'd hate to be trying to go through a short sale process. Although ive heard the banks are alot more on top of getting it done then they were 2 years ago.

[cramer]

In a piece from the Wall Street Journal on Saturday, LPS Applied Analytics estimated that foreclosures would create so much market supply that it would take 103 months to liquidate it.

do a quick google. You can pull up the same arcticle in 2008 and 2009. Where are all these houses at? I dont see them anymore.

[Benny Profane]

i'm not sure whats bizarre about it.

At least 12% unemployment, probably more like 18-20 real unemployment, and 25% underemployment, state finances at Greek level absurdities of debt and obligations and gridlock, therefore, rising taxes on all levels, an enormous backlog of foreclosures being held by banks, an even bigger shadow inventory of mortgage resets coming on line as we speak, and ridiculous bubble prices in LA and SF markets actually being re-inflated with your taxpayer dollars. I have this guy bookmarked and read it a lot http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/ , and the kind of stuff that goes for half a million dollars is absurd. I'm guessing that anybody making even an upper middle class income just wants to move out of there, as they have been doing for years now, just so they don't have to spend so much of their income on housing and sitting in traffic. Much like many places in the NY metro area.

But, you know, it's California. I started thinking it was bizarre when I watched Charlie Manson and Ronald Reagan rise. It must be the water.

[cramer]

an enormous backlog of foreclosures being held by banks

is there proof they are holding all of these houses? Do banks publicly release the information on all of these houses they are holding or is that speculation? Why would they hold them like they did last time? That kind of backfired dont you think? What happened last time is they did sit on them and then flooded the market with them. My house was built in 04 first owner bought in 05, foreclosed in 06 and sat for 2 years! just sat here. So when i bought end of 08, i basically got a brand new house.

Do you really think theyll make that mistake again? I dont. I think theyll get that house right back on the market faster than you can blink. Especially with the low inventories there is right now! Thats my .02. I think there will be a steady flow of houses coming onto the market. I know alot of people foreclosing now and its not taking no 15 months. My buddy is out on his ass after 5 months. Auction was last week and they offered him relocation money to get out now! shit you not. They are throwing his shit on the market instantly.

But he is in a pretty desirable area, so its not suprising to me. I'm not sure about my other 2 friends who are walking. I havent talked to them directly about it as i'm not as good as friends with them.

Either way, show me neighborhoods like it was in 2008 with for sale signs on every other house. Where im at, that simply isnt the case anymore. There also isnt any empty houses. I'm sure in places like vegas and phoenix, there probably is. But in CA, people are still buying up houses left and right. I have 2 friends trying to get into short sales now. They've both had a rough time though. That process is a fucking hassle unless you get a good agent. Neither of them have a good agent.

It seems alot of this is speculation. I'm talking hard cold facts here i've seen with my own eyes. Until i see any of this you are speaking of, im going to call bullshit. But what do i know, hehe...Im just calling it how i see it.

Too be honest, i hope you're right benny. Because if we have another meltdown, you'll be damn sure i snatch up a condo to have as a rental and backup plan should i lose my job or whatever. I'm in this thing for the longhaul. It would be nice to have a condo to retire to and a house to leave to my kid. My house is essentially a savings account for myself instead of me pissing money away on someone elses mortgage.

[Tips^Up]

one thing is certain:

the future is uncertain.

with the homebuyer credit expiring (1st timers and everyone else), finance rates increasing, a likely W (instead of the V recovery we're experiencing), the looming commercial crash (ARM's coming due with higher vacancies, lower rents, higher cap rates)...it is an interesting time to be following real estate. glad i don't have any money to invest right now.

[cramer]

one thing is certain:

the future is uncertain.

with the homebuyer credit expiring (1st timers and everyone else), finance rates increasing, a likely W (instead of the V recovery we're experiencing), the looming commercial crash (ARM's coming due with higher vacancies, lower rents, higher cap rates)...it is an interesting time to be following real estate. glad i don't have any money to invest right now.

CA just added a 10K credit for first time buyers or people who purchase a new home. 100Million cap though, so its first come first serve on the first 100K people. They did this the year i bought but it was only for new homes. THat shit was gone pretty quick. So probably doesnt make a huge difference, but will probably help the sales here more than other places. Fuckers who have a signed contract by april 30th and close by june 30th just raked in 18K back from their down payment. Thats halfway to a new inground pool on your new house. Its going to be like pirhana's on cows here. I should sell some houses on the side. I'm sure theres some money to be made over the next year.

[Hugh Conway]

At least 12% unemployment, probably more like 18-20 real unemployment, and 25% underemployment, state finances at Greek level absurdities of debt and obligations and gridlock, therefore, rising taxes on all levels, an enormous backlog of foreclosures being held by banks, an even bigger shadow inventory of mortgage resets coming on line as we speak, and ridiculous bubble prices in LA and SF markets actually being re-inflated with your taxpayer dollars. I have this guy bookmarked and read it a lot http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/ , and the kind of stuff that goes for half a million dollars is absurd. I'm guessing that anybody making even an upper middle class income just wants to move out of there, as they have been doing for years now, just so they don't have to spend so much of their income on housing and sitting in traffic. Much like many places in the NY metro area.

But, you know, it's California. I started thinking it was bizarre when I watched Charlie Manson and Ronald Reagan rise. It must be the water.

You'd give your left nut for sunshine most of the winter and skiing closer than your drive to VT

CA has it's problems but someone from NYC metro (or hell, any of the I95 corridor) pointing the bubble/shitty QOL finger is fucking funny

[cramer]

You'd give your left nut for sunshine most of the winter and skiing closer than your drive to VT

CA has it's problems but someone from NYC metro (or hell, any of the I95 corridor) pointing the bubble/shitty QOL finger is fucking funny

you're in NY benny? well fuck, no wonder you are rah rah for the west coast to implode. A little tip, east coast sucks. Summers especially. Manhatten smells like a garbage dump as do the subways running all over NY.

Make the move dude. We've got the beach, the sierra's, beautiful city that doesnt smell like shit, legal gambling and legal whores all within a couple hours. Oh and its sunny without humidity here. You might just find theres a reason why people live in CA and settle down.

[Benny Profane]

As soon as I get the last book put on the shelf, an 9.2 will hit and knock my new home down to the ground.

I'm looking at the Nevada side of Tahoe. All the advantages of Ca. without paying for it.

[enlosandes]

Yes, California is bizarre. The governor is a Hollywood action figure, everyone has the latest and greatest of everything, and the state is issuing IOU's.

And it is even going to get more bizarre because they are going to legalize pot, tax it and get themselves out of bankruptcy!

[liv2ski]

As soon as I get the last book put on the shelf, an 9.2 will hit and knock my new home down to the ground.

I'm looking at the Nevada side of Tahoe. All the advantages of Ca. without paying for it.

Huh??? The Nevada side is a lot more expensive than the CA side, so yes, you are paying for it upfront in NV or over time with CA state taxes.

[enlosandes]

Huh??? The Nevada side is a lot more expensive than the CA side, so yes, you are paying for it upfront in NV or over time with CA state taxes.

Unless he is talking about Draino, which should not even be mentioned in the same sentence as Tahoe.

[skier666]

Ritz-Carlton hotel at Lake Tahoe goes into default

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/04/27/270...#ixzz0mR2LWZzX

The new Ritz-Carlton luxury hotel at Lake Tahoe has gone into default, the latest sign of trouble for the lake economy and one of its top developers.

The default notice is the first step toward possible foreclosure. It was filed against the Northstar-area hotel March 31, about a month after its developer, East West Resort Development of Avon, Colo., put nearly $1 billion worth of Northstar real estate development into bankruptcy reorganization.

The hotel itself didn't go into bankruptcy, but "it's all interrelated," said Blake Riva, senior partner at East West's Truckee office. "The entire region's impacted."

............

The hotel is behind on $18.7 million in payments on loans totaling $157 million, according to a default notice filed in Placer County by Bank of America.

............

The bankruptcy covers four residential communities developed by East West in the Northstar area at a cost of $925 million. They include the completed Village at Northstar at the base of the mountain. Also included are three unfinished projects, the Northstar Highlands development halfway up the mountain near the Ritz-Carlton, and the Old Greenwood and Gray's Crossing golf communities.

[irul&ublo]

Ritz-Carlton hotel at Lake Tahoe goes into default

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/04/27/270...#ixzz0mR2LWZzX

There are a lot of people in Truckee who are pleased.

[Benny Profane]

Huh??? The Nevada side is a lot more expensive than the CA side, so yes, you are paying for it upfront in NV or over time with CA state taxes.

Not really in the new normal of '10, and, no taxes. I'm not buying for the rest of my life, (unless trends continue down) and rents are cheap.

[Benny Profane]

Ritz-Carlton hotel at Lake Tahoe goes into default

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/04/27/270...#ixzz0mR2LWZzX

Looking back, the one real estate product that may symbolize the excesses of the the commercial real estate industry of the late 90s-early 00s was the six figure fractional time share in resort areas around the world. I submitted to a few sales pitches for those to get free lift tickets, and, I was just stunned at the all around greed and hubris involved.

[link1]

you're in NY benny? well fuck, no wonder you are rah rah for the west coast to implode. A little tip, east coast sucks. Summers especially. Manhatten smells like a garbage dump as do the subways running all over NY.

Make the move dude. We've got the beach, the sierra's, beautiful city that doesnt smell like shit, legal gambling and legal whores all within a couple hours. Oh and its sunny without humidity here. You might just find theres a reason why people live in CA and settle down.

I'm from NY, only upstate where our summers are very nice. Just started thinking about investing into some real estate in Tahoe. I am trying to look ahead toward retirement and do not want to kick myself for not looking into something now. Timing is everything. I have skied all over the place except tahoe. I really would not know where to begin, other than gettting out to check it out.

[4matic]

There are a lot of people in Truckee who are pleased.

I'm not sure why.. It's still there. Had it been a big success it would have meant millions of wealthy international tourist dollars. The Ritz resort at Half Moon Bay is the coolest hotel I ever been too. Even the dirtbag economy up there needs tourists to survive.