Real Estate Crash thread

[Platinum Pete]

It's the new Golden Rule. It's not do on to others as you would have them do onto you. It's not even do onto others as they have done onto you. It's do on to others as they have done to others.
Fuck that.

And it's a slippery slope morally, too. If you can walk away from a $100k plus commitment because "it's just business," why should you feel bad committing other ethical trasgressions like lawsuits for fake injuries, stealing something you know you won't be caught/prosecuted for, deciding to hit and run rather than take responsibility in a car accident... the list could go on. It's not like the mistakes a lot of folks make as youths then grow out of, bailing on an enormous sum of money is a breach of ethics not far in my mind from some very reprehensible acts. This is grand larceny posing as "self defense", fucking self pity and ignorance is not a valid insanity plea.

[liv2ski]

Refis in Option ARM space = not happening. It's hard to refi a house that has declined in price and the principal balance has gone way the fuck up. The peak reset is still at about Aug 2011 whereas before it was in Sept-Oct 2011. The good news is that it's mostly in CA, AZ, FL, and NY where the worst of it is.

Fixed it for you. All those Option ARMs originated from 05-07 are toast.

[Benny Profane]

Capitulation by a thousand cuts.

The world is slanted to destroy and take advantage of the middle class. I like how his "for profit group" is helping people walk away. Thats funny. Walking away from your house sounds like a great idea until years from now you are renting and at the mercy of inflation.

So, you actually think that this guy is doing more harm to the "middle class" than the thousands and thousands of bankers and traders and politicians who profited from the great credit economy of the last twenty years, milking that "middle class" for trillions in corrupt and rigged transactions in profits and fees? How naive. But, that's why they were able to get away with it without paying fees or jail time, and they're slowly sticking it up your butt as I type for more profit. You actually think inflation will return and hurt the renters, like this is your grandfather's economy. Amazing how some people can get chumped over and over.

He's making a thousand bucks per walkaway. Dick Fuld made about a half a billion dollars before he got fired by the Fed. Get real with the comparisons.

[liv2ski]

Do you have numbers around refis in the past two years? I would imagine many people have been rather forward looking when it comes to anticipated rate adjustments. If rates stay where they are these guys might even see a downward adjustment. Have had that happen to a few friends with ARMs in the past year. Just curious.

This is true today, as many of these loans used the 1 Yr Libor for the index which today is at a paltry .87%. You then add the margin of normally 2.50%-3.50% to get your new rate. Bad news is the new rate may adjust as frequently as monthly to once a year.
The really bad news is at some point Libor will be more in the historical range of 4%-7%. Add your margin to that and it is Doooh time.

[Big Snowballs]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...5277695921912#

Zeitgeist Movie. Man this stuff is crazy.

[mcsquared]

So, you actually think that this guy is doing more harm to the "middle class" than the thousands and thousands of bankers and traders and politicians who profited from the great credit economy of the last twenty years, milking that "middle class" for trillions in corrupt and rigged transactions in profits and fees? How naive. But, that's why they were able to get away with it without paying fees or jail time, and they're slowly sticking it up your butt as I type for more profit. You actually think inflation will return and hurt the renters, like this is your grandfather's economy. Amazing how some people can get chumped over and over.

He's making a thousand bucks per walkaway. Dick Fuld made about a half a billion dollars before he got fired by the Fed. Get real with the comparisons.

I think they all suck. But preying on peoples anger and manipulating them into paying you to help them make morally questionable and probably financially detrimental decisions is pretty low. I see nothing honorable about any of it. I know, I know FUCK THE BANKERS AND THEIR BAZZIONS OF DOLLARS I'LL SHOW THEM!!!!!!!!!!


By the way, remember a year or so ago I tried to make a bet with you about the stock market and you pussied out and were ranting and raving about HYPER INFLATION and SUCKER RALLY!!.. How did that work out?

Edit:found it
[ame="http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php?t=146982"]Bogle speaks about your mistakes - Teton Gravity Research Forums[/ame]

[Hugh Conway]

I think they all suck. But preying on peoples anger and manipulating them into paying you to help them make morally questionable and probably financially detrimental decisions is pretty low.

$1k is a much smaller cut than the realtor or the mortgage broker got for the same manipulation < shrug >

[Benny Profane]

I think they all suck. But preying on peoples anger and manipulating them into paying you to help them make morally questionable and probably financially detrimental decisions is pretty low. I see nothing honorable about any of it. I know, I know FUCK THE BANKERS AND THEIR BAZZIONS OF DOLLARS I'LL SHOW THEM!!!!!!!!!!


By the way, remember a year or so ago I tried to make a bet with you about the stock market and you pussied out and were ranting and raving about HYPER INFLATION and SUCKER RALLY!!.. How did that work out?

Edit:found it
Bogle speaks about your mistakes - Teton Gravity Research Forums

So, again, what's your point? Are you whipping out the bear market rally numbers to prove something? What's that have to do with the real estate market and walkaways? Are you just lashing out from your ennui because you have no argument at all? Explain yourself.

[Missing Sock]

This is true today, as many of these loans used the 1 Yr Libor for the index which today is at a paltry .87%. You then add the margin of normally 2.50%-3.50% to get your new rate. Bad news is the new rate may adjust as frequently as monthly to once a year.
The really bad news is at some point Libor will be more in the historical range of 4%-7%. Add your margin to that and it is Doooh time.

Yes its true today. And many people can and have taken advantage of these rates to refi into a 15 or 30 year fixed. Trust me, I have had half a dozen friends do it in just the last six months. Are some people going to be screwed sure but the longer the rates remain low the longer people will be able get their "house in order." I just don't see the second wave of the credit bomb being nearly as bad the permabears think.

[Missing Sock]

So, you actually think that this guy is doing more harm to the "middle class" than the thousands and thousands of bankers and traders and politicians who profited from the great credit economy of the last twenty years, milking that "middle class" for trillions in corrupt and rigged transactions in profits and fees?

Is this the same middle class with the escalades, satellite tv, second homes etc etc? I would say they benefited just fine from the credit bubble. At some point though enough is enough. They lost there second home and Dick Fuld lost his billion dollars. Plenty of pigs at the trough.

[ass-to-mouth]

Talked to a guy (not really a friend, more like a colleague) today who hadn't paid his mortage for 13 months. The bank was demanding over $32,000 or face foreclosure. After some back and forth he offered $12,000. The bank accepted and he gets to keep the house. You're going to be seeing a lot more of this in the next few months & years. For the banks it's much easier & cheaper then trying to kick millions of people out of their homes. And in the end the taxpayer will more then likely cover the difference.

[mcsquared]

So, again, what's your point? Are you whipping out the bear market rally numbers to prove something? What's that have to do with the real estate market and walkaways? Are you just lashing out from your ennui because you have no argument at all? Explain yourself.

My point? Do I have to have one? Whats yours? EVIL BANKERS STEALING MY MONEY!!!!!!11 FUCK DICK FULD. IN. HIS. MONEY. HOLE.

My point is that you have been wrong for the past year. Probably wrong more than you have been right based on your bitter hatred towards anybody with "more" than you. And yet, none of this has given you pause. "There is none more ignorant than the man who is always right". Maybe this is your year Benny. The year your perfect storm scenario will play out. What is that scenario anyways? Far as I can tell it is simultaneous deflation and inflation or some kind of scenario where it switches back and forth whenever it suits you. And it seems that scenario will also squash the little I have in real estate and the little I have in stocks and the little I have in money market accounts and the little I have in tools in my garage at the same time. And that would please you like a puppy with two peters.

[whatcomridaz]

My point? Do I have to have one? Whats yours? EVIL BANKERS STEALING MY MONEY!!!!!!11 FUCK DICK FULD. IN. HIS. MONEY. HOLE.

My point is that you have been wrong for the past year. Probably wrong more than you have been right based on your bitter hatred towards anybody with "more" than you. And yet, none of this has given you pause. "There is none more ignorant than the man who is always right". Maybe this is your year Benny. The year your perfect storm scenario will play out. What is that scenario anyways? Far as I can tell it is simultaneous deflation and inflation or some kind of scenario where it switches back and forth whenever it suits you. And it seems that scenario will also squash the little I have in real estate and the little I have in stocks and the little I have in money market accounts and the little I have in tools in my garage at the same time. And that would please you like a puppy with two peters.

Hardest I've laughed at TGR in a long time

POTD

[cramer]

My point? Do I have to have one? Whats yours? EVIL BANKERS STEALING MY MONEY!!!!!!11 FUCK DICK FULD. IN. HIS. MONEY. HOLE.

My point is that you have been wrong for the past year. Probably wrong more than you have been right based on your bitter hatred towards anybody with "more" than you. And yet, none of this has given you pause. "There is none more ignorant than the man who is always right". Maybe this is your year Benny. The year your perfect storm scenario will play out. What is that scenario anyways? Far as I can tell it is simultaneous deflation and inflation or some kind of scenario where it switches back and forth whenever it suits you. And it seems that scenario will also squash the little I have in real estate and the little I have in stocks and the little I have in money market accounts and the little I have in tools in my garage at the same time. And that would please you like a puppy with two peters.

lol, the man does have a point.

[Hugh Conway]

Hardest I've laughed at TGR in a long time

not nearly as funny as the beginning of this thread. Any idiot can be a bear, a bear baiter, or a cheerleader

[whatcomridaz]

not nearly as funny as the beginning of this thread. Any idiot can be a bear, a bear baiter, or a cheerleader

Speaking of when the fuck are we going to catch some waves? I'm thinking a week of fiji in August and then Heli in NZ?

[Toadman]

This just in....

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Some homeowners who sign up for the government's mortgage assistance program are getting a nasty surprise: Lower credit scores.

For borrowers who are making their payments on time but are on the verge of default, the Obama administration's loan modification program can reduce their credit score as much as 100 points. That makes it harder to get a loan and can present a problem when applying for a new job.

[Benny Profane]

My point? Do I have to have one? Whats yours? EVIL BANKERS STEALING MY MONEY!!!!!!11 FUCK DICK FULD. IN. HIS. MONEY. HOLE.

My point is that you have been wrong for the past year. Probably wrong more than you have been right based on your bitter hatred towards anybody with "more" than you. And yet, none of this has given you pause. "There is none more ignorant than the man who is always right". Maybe this is your year Benny. The year your perfect storm scenario will play out. What is that scenario anyways? Far as I can tell it is simultaneous deflation and inflation or some kind of scenario where it switches back and forth whenever it suits you. And it seems that scenario will also squash the little I have in real estate and the little I have in stocks and the little I have in money market accounts and the little I have in tools in my garage at the same time. And that would please you like a puppy with two peters.

Listen, son, young man, I'm really trying to do you a favor. Really. You have a lot of bitterness because the shit hit the fan for you, the momentum just tanked, all of your plans just went to shit, because the rah rah economy of your adolescent to young adult life is over. You can't believe that things are'nt just bouncing back, like they did so many times since Raygun. You're not accepting it yet, and lashing out. I understand. Been there done it, sort of. We had a rude awakening in the late 70's. But, the better sex made up for it.

I've found, in my personal life, as I get on, that the one subject I wish I studied much more, was History, because it's a fucking doom loop, especially when it comes to human behavior. All this has happened a few times before, you know.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/d.../?campaignid=3

This one is cool, because it's nice keyhole somebody has established into the early depression, day by day:

http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/

[LeeLau]

For Spats (with whom I agree) - http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/...ked+capitalism)

Re Fractional Reserve Banking & Austrian economist critiques

[liv2ski]

Another update on home sales. I like the comments from the peanut gallery below the article.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exi...entory-20-year

Existing Home Sales Double Dip Deteriorates With Biggest Increase In Months Supply Inventory In 20 Years

[cramer]

Another update on home sales. I like the comments from the peanut gallery below the article.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exi...entory-20-year

Existing Home Sales Double Dip Deteriorates With Biggest Increase In Months Supply Inventory In 20 Years

well, my first thought is that there isnt any houses to buy anymore. That and the # of homes sold in 2009 was due to first time buyers snatching up homes. the inventory is very low for that first time buyer group. Most have either bought, cant get a house they like (losing bidding wars or just nothing out there) or they cant get a loan.

Housing sales arent going to go up unless we see another huge glut of foreclosures and unemployment rates go down. I don't see the banks flooding the market with 1000's of properties again. the job market seems to have improved. At least amongst alot of my friends. I dont think i have any that are unemployed anymore.

[Benny Profane]

And the stock market goes up another 100 points today, a day when Timmy stammered through another grilling in front of congress when asked if the phantom trillion dollar obligation of Fannie/Freddie that the taxpayer owns and is not recognized in out debt was, well, own up, Timmy, part of our sovereign debt or, not. He worked around that one like Ben did. The can is another 50 yards down the road.

[ass-to-mouth]

This is just the beginning...

BofA to start reducing mortgage principal

Bank of America takes major step to right troubled mortgages, will reduce some loan principal

Ieva M. Augstums, AP Business Writer, On Wednesday March 24, 2010, 4:08 pm

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) -- Bank of America Corp. is giving some of its most troubled mortgage borrowers relief from the threat of foreclosure.

The bank, the largest mortgage servicer in the country, said Wednesday it will forgive up to 30 percent of some customers' total mortgage balance. The homeowners must have missed at least two months of mortgage payments and owe at least 20 percent more than their home is currently worth.

The plan is the newest provision of an agreement the Charlotte, N.C.-based bank reached 18 months ago with state attorneys general to settle charges over high-risk loans made by Countrywide Financial Corp.

The loans were made before Bank of America acquired the mortgage lender in mid-2008. Bank of America has since stopped making those loans.

Although the motivation for Bank of America's announcement was to resolve legal problems, it has the potential of setting a precedent for other banks to also start forgiving principal on loans that are in danger of failing. Bank of America is the nation's largest bank, and it's among the first to take a systematic approach to reducing mortgage principal when home values drop well below the amount owed.

[Toadman]

I would think that once a bank like BofA starts to write down the principal, you might have all hell break loose in the bond markets, and not to mention the good folks at Fannie and Freddie going down the drain with our tax dollars. Feb. housing sales is a bad, bad sign, weather be damned and all.

[Benny Profane]

"Although the motivation for Bank of America's announcement was to resolve legal problems"

There's a lot of Countrywide shenanigans in that pile of crap that they bought. It could be just shutting up a certain amount of lawsuits, and good PR is a side benefit. I heard about this today, and the spokesman called it a "test", and it was 14,000 mortgages out of a total of fifteen million they owned. I'll bet that there have been negotiations, or, maybe just a heads up to Timmy before they even announced it, and you know who Timmy reports to.

Your tax dollars hard at work. Mizzulo should be in jail, but he's probably on a beach right now, laughing.