Tahoe Precip?

**woodsskier** · 02-02-2007, 11:26 AM

According to Noaa, looks like we could see the "H" move out of the area next week opening the storm door.......PLEASE!!!!

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NV THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SPREADING INTO WESTERN NV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HUDSON BAY LOW PULLED EASTWARD BY STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE WESTERN RIDGE TO ALSO MOVE EAST...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM BUT FEEL THAT INTRODUCING PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST IS WARRANTED. HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY...A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE SIERRA...FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON WHETHER LATER MODEL RUNS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN...SOMETHING THAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AFTER THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH...EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. RC

BLOOD SWEAT STEEL · 02-02-2007, 11:38 AM

Riiiiiight.

**lemon boy** · 02-02-2007, 11:40 AM

survey sez!:

getting better.

**woodsskier** · 02-02-2007, 12:10 PM

Originally Posted by BLOOD SWEAT STEEL

Riiiiiight.

Hey, I stil haven't given up.....I'm getting my big daddies mounted today...

**skimoore** · 02-02-2007, 12:13 PM

Originally Posted by woodsskier

Hey, I stil haven't given up.....I'm getting my big daddies mounted today...

F-ing optimist.

I was all ready to ski this weekend, but with no new snow, I'm thinking I'll bike instead. Saves gas money.

**woodsskier** · 02-02-2007, 12:19 PM

Originally Posted by skimoore

F-ing optimist.

I was all ready to ski this weekend, but with no new snow, I'm thinking I'll bike instead. Saves gas money.

Actually, I'm heading down to Auburn tomorrow to get get some fat tire on!
Should be great...65 degrees there tomorrow.....

**skimoore** · 02-02-2007, 12:22 PM

Originally Posted by woodsskier

Actually, I'm heading down to Auburn tomorrow to get get some fat tire on!
Should be great...65 degrees there tomorrow.....

If only I had a fat tire....Maybe I should sell off my P4s and get a MTB....gotta stick to the skinny tires and spandex for now.

Enjoy, should be a perfect day for Auburn trails...

**kidwoo** · 02-02-2007, 12:25 PM

Originally Posted by skimoore

If only I had a fat tire....Maybe I should sell off my P4s and get a MTB....gotta stick to the skinny tires and spandex for now.

Enjoy, should be a perfect day for Auburn trails...

Sell the mOnkey.

You need a mountain bike.

**skimoore** · 02-02-2007, 12:40 PM

Originally Posted by kidwoo

Sell the mOnkey.

You need a mountain bike.

It's an orangutan, we've already been through this. And unfortunately, the going rate is far too low, and I'd never sell him, he's like a son to me. An orange, hairy son who flings poo.

But seriously, I need a mountain bike.

**woodsskier** · 02-02-2007, 12:50 PM

seriously, you do...there is almost no better x training for skiing, agility, balance, visualization, and reaction...although I've never owned an orangutan either...

**skimoore** · 02-02-2007, 01:02 PM

Originally Posted by woodsskier

...although I've never owned an orangutan either...

Seriously, you should get one...the poo dodging has greatly increased my balance, agility, visualization and reaction. And due to lack of snow, my maturity and intelligence has dropped to catastrophically low levels. The orangutan now beats me at chess and trivial pursuit.

**freshies** · 02-02-2007, 01:49 PM

dare to hope??

THIS MEANS, THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRAIN OF SYSTEMS MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.....JUST IN TIME FOR THE PRESIDENTS HOLIDAY WEEK.

AT THE MOMENT, IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO PREDICT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL OVER MAMMOTH MT. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE INITIALLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE.....THEN FALLING THROUGH WEEKS END......THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FEET OF FRESH SNOW WITH AN EVEN LARGER STORM POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND OF THE 10TH.

**kona12** · 02-02-2007, 02:40 PM

Ya right, margaritaville on the beach in shorts and a t shirt is what I am predicting. Make sure to wash your car and get it nice and shiny for all of that sunshine we are going to have next week.

**kidwoo** · 02-02-2007, 02:49 PM

I can't even spell orangutan.

monkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymo nkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonk eymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkey monkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymo nkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonk eymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkey monkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymonkeymo nkeymonkey

And yay

snow

maybe

**AKA** · 02-02-2007, 02:54 PM

Originally Posted by freshies

dare to hope??

THIS MEANS, THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRAIN OF SYSTEMS MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.....JUST IN TIME FOR THE PRESIDENTS HOLIDAY WEEK.

AT THE MOMENT, IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO PREDICT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL OVER MAMMOTH MT. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE INITIALLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE.....THEN FALLING THROUGH WEEKS END......THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FEET OF FRESH SNOW WITH AN EVEN LARGER STORM POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND OF THE 10TH.

There was a possibility of snow and then that Freshies guy douched up the whole operation by posting about it on the interweb.

**skier666** · 02-02-2007, 04:12 PM

Guaranteed to snow, you can thank me later. I'm goint to Florida (first time) over President's weekend...so yeah, its going to snow, and its going to be alltime.

**freshies** · 02-02-2007, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by AKA

There was a possibility of snow and then that Freshies guy douched up the whole operation by posting about it on the interweb.

yeah, that's it...never mind the several posts about precip above...

i think my lack of snow predictions/stoke has actually increased this high pressure...let's see if the old trick does it. in any event, i just got bavck from a MTB ride this afternoon and am riding both days this weekend, as I have given up on snow.

**woodsskier** · 02-02-2007, 04:32 PM

Originally Posted by skier666

Guaranteed to snow, you can thank me later. I'm goint to Florida (first time) over President's weekend...so yeah, its going to snow, and its going to be alltime.

And especially...what ever you do....don't come to Squaw

**freshies** · 02-02-2007, 04:55 PM

more depressing news: Alpine is closing Sherwood (for now) due to lack of snow/coverage back there....in facking February

Someone said that was the first time they can remember that happening (nothing like that has happened in the 12 years i have been skiing there).

**woodsskier** · 02-02-2007, 05:09 PM

Yikes! I just heard some fun stuff...The Squawllywood IFSA comp is going to happen, first round Enchanted forest/snag cliffs then onto C2...this should be interesting...

**Cirquerider** · 02-02-2007, 05:12 PM

The official results are in from the February snow survey. 37% to 44% of normal.

DWR Announces February 2007 Snow Survey Results

SACRAMENTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Results of the February 2, 2007, snow survey by the California Department of Water Resources off Highway 50 near Echo Summit are as follows:
Location Elevation Snow Depth Water Content % of Long Term Average
Alpha 7,600 feet 21.8 inches 7.9 inches 37%
Phillips Station 6,800 feet 23.0 inches 7.3 inches 38%
Lyons Creek 6,700 feet 30.7 inches 8.6 inches 44%
Tamarack Flat 6,500 feet 27.1 inches 8.1 inches 43%

Today’s survey was the second of the 2006-2007 snowfall season and although snowpack figures are far below average, they do not necessarily translate to drought conditions statewide for this summer. After three wet winters in a row, reservoir storage is about 110 per cent of normal and groundwater storage for most areas is good. Information on reservoir levels can be found at http://watersupplyconditions.water.c...conditions.pdf.

How do you like them Anti-Jinx apples Freshies.

**guermo** · 02-02-2007, 05:16 PM

37% of normal is hard to believe. It seems more like 5 % !

**woodsskier** · 02-02-2007, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by guermo

37% of normal is hard to believe. It seems more like 5 % !

Guermo, what happened to the optimism....we're almost out of it.....

**Jim S** · 02-02-2007, 06:55 PM

Originally Posted by guermo

37% of normal is hard to believe. It seems more like 5 % !

It's 5% of the 37% of normal.

**AKA** · 02-02-2007, 06:57 PM

Originally Posted by woodsskier

Yikes! I just heard some fun stuff...The Squawllywood IFSA comp is going to happen, first round Enchanted forest/snag cliffs then onto C2...this should be interesting...

Im so happy I didnt sign up for that.