To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

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Originally Posted by steepconcrete

Look at all the people still butthurt because I returned fire after having enough of the personal attacks. You can dish it but not take it.

Y’all haven’t changed. You are not open to any thought you don’t agree with-> this is obvious with how you treat people like cono and debased. Repeatedly calling them mentally ill and morons.

To say you are holier than thou would be a massive understatement.

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I for one attempted to engage with you on multiple topics where you elected to engage in goal post moving and disingenuous argumentation.

You were trolling long before anyone called you a nasty name and most people here know you have a long history of acting in bad faith.

So, in my view you have a long ways to go before you get to tell anyone here they aren’t open minded about your contribution to the discussion.

Unfortunately, people will choose to engage with you and we will go down the same road people have gone with mtuhockry, Montucky, debased and company.

^ I assume it was a different alias? Cuz since your join date I haven’t been on here till now.

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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

I'm not arguing for or against anyone's own personal risk assessment — these are just the numbers currently available: In the UK where they perform random antibody testing and collect much better data vaccination caused the IFR to fall from about 1%, to around 0.05-0.1% for the entire vaccinated and unvaccinated population. The current 7 day rolling average is 1 per ten thousand (100/million=0.0001). The vaccinated rate is even lower. The UK has better coverage in the older population hence a lower IFR. Whereas here in the United States about 10-15% of the older 60+ pop doesn't trust vaccines, a main driver of our higher hospitalization & fatality rates.

The risk reduction multiples for Oregon — 30X under 60, 13X under 80, 4X for 80+ — are the most recent numbers for the month of August.

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No need to argue, I'm happy to learn if I'm misinterpreting data. I tend to trust your data and musings over my own.

The UK does collect some of the best data. 0.05% IFR is the same as 1 death in 2000. I agree it may be lower among the vaccinated. The wide range in IFR numbers reflects the rapid change in the source data, as well as different methods of calculating. IFR is especially tricky, as it takes 4 weeks or so to die and we also need to guess how many cases were missed by testing. The death delay means if cases have rapidly increased recently, a naive IFR calculation (deaths/cases) will show an artificial and low IFR. I have seen many authoritative sources make this mistake.

As vaccination removes the oldsters from the disease pool, I'm expecting a drop in the overall IFR/CFR. I don't see it yet in USA. Taking today's death average of ~1500/day, and average cases 4 weeks ago ~105k, I get a US CFR of 1.5%. Given the recent rapid change in cases, this has large error bars. We know testing is sub-optimal in several states, of course death reporting is probably also behind. If someone claims I'm off by a factor of 2, I accept that. Factor of ten could be true, though gets a raised eyebrow. IFR is certainly lower than CFR.

And of course, your link points out the hazard of using averages for a disease with heavy age bias.

Are there age biases in the rate of permanent long covid damage?

probably

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Originally Posted by ill-advised strategy

If vaccinated people are having infection outcomes kinda something like influenza, wouldn’t a herd immunity level of vaccination result in being able to live lifestyles roughly the same as during flu season…where institutionalized settings might have a few extra measures but by and large life goes on as normal?

Is that really so unrealistic?

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I think that’s the goal.


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Originally Posted by steepconcrete

Here is the data. Anyone that can show my math wrong go ahead.

Would love to see if. This shit bums me out.

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/D...ase-Report.pdf

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Why does it bum you out? Is it because you’re unvaccinated? Do you lack basic understanding of numbers? Or is it because you’re wrong again and all the data you linked proves that the best way to protect yourself is to get vaccinated and prevent serious illness or death?


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Originally Posted by steepconcrete

Because this thing is endemic and much worse than the flu. Vaccination is (as always) a game changer. But in this case it’s not enough to stop it dead.

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No vaccine “stops it dead”. Are you really this simple. It’s been talked about in this thread over and over.


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Originally Posted by skiJ

yes. correct - and corrected. Thank you. tj

(( And my statement was regarding the information steep. cited ( the Oregon data for August2021 ), lest my statement be projected to some county or township where it might be False. ( Good grief ) ))

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I know the intent of your post, we are human and all. We do not need misinformation or wrong information that could be taken as a validation to not get Vaxed in this thread... Thanks for your continued source of reasoning.

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Originally Posted by steepconcrete

Wrong.
Median breakthrough age is 48. Average case age is 49. It’s in the link I posted above.

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Wrong, median age of breakthrough cases for the week of August 22-28 was 49. Of all breakthrough cases in OR since vaccination started the median age is 48. No where in your link does it talk about average age.


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My impression both from underlying biology (to the limited extent that we understand it), there is no age bias for "long covid" seeing as it appears to be a form of persistent chronic hyperinflammatory immune response to prior SARS Cov2 exposure - these types of responses can happen to people of any age, taking sequelae of Lyme disease as an example.

That being said, older people are more likely to suffer from immune dysfunction, so this could reflected in the outcomes data. A confounder is that older patients may have more underlying health conditions and/or less reserve, and therefore possibly more likely to report "long covid" symptoms.

If steep is an avid reader of Nature, he would doubtless have seen this.

Attributes and predictors of long COVID

The authors are reasonably cautious in their conclusions in that the recognize that this is a self-selected cohort in a retrospective analysis.

There is also the issue of defining "long covid" and the cited study, of necessity, uses one of many possible definitions of the condition.

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Originally Posted by steepconcrete

I am in no way doubting the vaccines effectiveness.

I’m saying that even best case 100% vax rate this virus is still scary.

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I’m not scared and I work in a hospital. I’m vaccinated and my exposure is probably orders of magnitude greater than yours.


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rj gets banned and steep starts posting again. Probably just a coincidence.

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Originally Posted by Mazderati

rj gets banned and steep starts posting again. Probably just a coincidence.

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Probably.

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Originally Posted by steepconcrete

So it seems the consensus in here is that everything is alright on the covid front?

:mind blown:

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Not at all. I’m not worried about getting Covid, I’m worried that our hospital is full. Our Covid icu/pcu is full of unvaccinated patients. Everyone of them, no unvaccinated patients. I’m worried that we won’t be able to care for people with other problems. We put a patient in the regular ICU yesterday for a trauma and that was the last available bed. We had another patient later with necrotizing fasciitis and he needed an icu bed and there wasn’t one. He had to be put on the floor with a lesser level of care and today he needed another debridement and will likely die.


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Originally Posted by RShea

I know the intent of your post, we are human and all. We do not need misinformation or wrong information that could be taken as a validation to not get Vaxed in this thread... Thanks for your continued source of reasoning.

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no worries, RShea - your correction was 'on the mark' -

I was concerned that there might be an attempt to apply a statement that I intended for the Oregon data referenced, to some other survey ( and I wanted to pre-empt that ).

Thank you, RShea - And LSL. I think I have (shared) enough for Today...

wishing you All a peaceful Labor day !


skiJ

King County, WA has a new Covid risk dashboard. Through the end of August unvaccinated people in King County were 7X more likely to test positive, 49X more likely to be hospitalized, and 32X more likely to die from COVID-19 than vaccinated people.

I’m at my wits end. Today we’re doing a c section on a woman who is unvaccinated and Covid positive. She will go to the icu if we have one and has a really good chance of dying. We’re thinking about sending a 34 yo unvaccinated male to the UW for ECMO. He’s been on a ventilator for 15 days and blew a lung this morning. This is happening every day now around the country.


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Originally Posted by MagnificentUnicorn

I’m at my wits end. Today we’re doing a c section on a woman who is unvaccinated and Covid positive. She will go to the icu if we have one and has a really good chance of dying. We’re thinking about sending a 34 yo unvaccinated male to the UW for ECMO. He’s been on a ventilator for 15 days and blew a lung this morning. This is happening every day now around the country.


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Hang in there A.

Thank you for what you're doing.

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Originally Posted by MagnificentUnicorn

I’m at my wits end. Today we’re doing a c section on a woman who is unvaccinated and Covid positive. She will go to the icu if we have one and has a really good chance of dying. We’re thinking about sending a 34 yo unvaccinated male to the UW for ECMO. He’s been on a ventilator for 15 days and blew a lung this morning. This is happening every day now around the country.

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Not only that, the 34 yo patient’s family demanded ivermectin and accused our ICU doctor of trying to kill the patient. Then they threatened to harm the doctor.

JFC. When is this nonsense going to end.

The only thing worse than an idiot is one who's convinced he's a genius.

Fucking hell... keep up the good fight guys.

I’m not really worried about myself, maybe my sanity, I’m worried about our cuntry and what kind of future that my daughters are facing.


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Brutal: https://www.al.com/opinion/2021/09/c...look-like.html

This was sent to me because thats my dad calling my cousin's MIL a loser on facebook. They thought he was sick. I asked him if he was ok. He didn't think anything was wrong with it.

I told him I thought he had more class than that and now he won't talk to me.

The strange thing is that my dad isn't stupid. I totally don't get it. I can understand uneducated, super paranoid people, but not him.

What can you even do?

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Originally Posted by Salvelinusconfluentus

This was sent to me because thats my dad calling my cousin's MIL a loser on facebook. They thought he was sick. I asked him if he was ok. He didn't think anything was wrong with it.

I told him I thought he had more class than that and now he won't talk to me.

The strange thing is that my dad isn't stupid. I totally don't get it. I can understand uneducated, super paranoid people, but not him.

What can you even do?

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He's stupid. He may not always have been stupid. He may have had the potential to be otherwise at one point in his life.

But that man is fucking stupid.

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