To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[Game Over]

lol @ Steep, with a 100% national vax rate the transmission rate R0 would fall below 1 and the virus would only be scary in the sense that polio in America today is scary.

Not 100% true — FWIG the effectiveness against Delta is much to low??

It really doesn’t matter. We don’t have a chance at 80% let alone 100%

👎

Fuck all the ignorant who don’t care about their fellow man, family and friends.

[ill-advised strategy]

polio

[MultiVerse]

@ LongShortLong. It's less a case of Steep being both right and wrong and more a case of using the motte-and-bailey fallacy to draw specious conclusions.

People here understand all too well vax rates need to be higher in America, that vaccines are not a forcefield for the indiviudual, to reduce the transmission rate.

[LongShortLong]

Welp, now you caught some fish…Sunday morning at the ol tgr pond!

Shiny metal spoon, must eat tasty minnow.

[jono]

He doesn't have a point.

If he bothered to read to read the posts on the previous page he'd know his question has already been answered. In a nutshell Oregon is seeing a similar Covid distribution disparity that we saw in Israel: unvaxxed skews younger; vaccinated breakthrough skew older. So as unvaxxed people who haven't had Covid shrinks, folks looking at Oregon data will wrongly argue vaccines aren't working.

And since the elderly have had the vaccine longer their number of exposures is higher, so further hand wringing over how it doesn't protect them as well or waning immunity, (alternately) are both incoming.

Interesting to note that % breakthroughs in Oregon have been falling for many weeks despite vax rates going up. Age effect, building immunity, the vaxed becoming more cautious, or is delta just ripping through the unvaxed so hard that the breakthroughs can't keep up?

Chicken Little claiming this thing can't be beaten never considers the increasing incidence of sterilizing immunity levels among the vaxed+exposed. If we somehow avoid delta+alpha the long run population approaches, say, 90-95% exposed and 5-10% incredibly careful. If sinus immunity trends up on the way the "incredibly careful" number can end up bigger. Just a question of whether we let the misinformed bankrupt us first.

[SumJongGuy]

How about an oral vaccine labeled as horse dewormer?

[riser4]

How about an oral vaccine labeled as horse dewormer?

Mind. Blown.

[Game Over]

@ LongShortLong. It's less a case of Steep being both right and wrong and more a case of using the motte-and-bailey fallacy to draw specious conclusions.

People here at least understand all too well vax rates need to be higher in America to reduce the transmission rate.

This is absolutely the issue.

It should not be controversial to point out that we are fudging the numbers and that the situation is a lot more dire than it appears.

Not to mention we are now packing football stadiums and kids are going back to school. Our pediatrician and all the doctors on my Twitter feed are scared shitless.

[lucknau]

I found a video archive recently that answered a lot of my questions about Delta, vaccine efficacy statistics and outlooks, ICU and prophylactic treatment drugs and red herrings. His name is Dr Mike Hansen. On the New England Journal of Medicine podcast, there was a recent discussion about studies of people who had survived SARS-COV-1 that implied a high immunity level in unvaxed survivors, and an extremely high level in vaxed survivors. Indications at the moment are that the vax is better at protecting vs death and long term effects than post covid antibodies, and that the two together are better than either alone. They’ve seen vaccine effectiveness start to wan at about the 8 month mark, and believe that the next better thing to this previous immunity level is vax plus booster.

[CascadeLuke]

It really doesn’t matter. We don’t have a chance at 80% let alone 100%

[emoji107]

Fuck all the ignorant who don’t care about their fellow man, family and friends.

I gather you’re conservative/ right leaning. My question is how do you feel about your contingent destroying America? Smell the coffee yet?
It’s more important to be loyal to party, religion, and owning the libs — than America. Full stop.
Plus this whole thing has destroyed the religious holier than thou argument forever. They’re a bunch of cultist who only care about their side- not man as a whole. It’s painfully obvious.

[Game Over]

And since the elderly have had the vaccine longer their number of exposures is higher, so further hand wringing over how it doesn't protect them as well or waning immunity, (alternately) are both incoming.

Interesting to note that % breakthroughs in Oregon have been falling for many weeks despite vax rates going up. Age effect, building immunity, the vaxed becoming more cautious, or is delta just ripping through the unvaxed so hard that the breakthroughs can't keep up?

Chicken Little claiming this thing can't be beaten never considers the increasing incidence of sterilizing immunity levels among the vaxed+exposed. If we somehow avoid delta+alpha the long run population approaches, say, 90-95% exposed and 5-10% incredibly careful. If sinus immunity trends up on the way the "incredibly careful" number can end up bigger. Just a question of whether we let the misinformed bankrupt us first.

“And then one day it will just go away”

🤔

[wooley12]

Fear is what you eat for breakfast. You love it.

3 pages of steep's shit. GTFO dood.

[Game Over]

I gather you’re conservative/ right leaning. My question is how do you feel about your contingent destroying America? Smell the coffee yet?
It’s more important to be loyal to party, religion, and owning the libs — than America. Full stop.
Plus this whole thing has destroyed the religious holier than now argument forever. They’re a bunch of cultist who only care about their side- not man as a whole. It’s painfully obvious.

Nope. I’m very progressive.

[MultiVerse]

Interesting to note that % breakthroughs in Oregon have been falling for many weeks despite vax rates going up. Age effect, building immunity, the vaxed becoming more cautious, or is delta just ripping through the unvaxed so hard that the breakthroughs can't keep up?

So far in OR, only somewhere in the neighborhood of 7% of pop has tested positive for Covid so delta is definitely ripping through the unvaxxed and then spilling over to the vaxxed too. Add to all of the above the fact that one size does not fit all. Looking at overall vax % for an entire state does not describe vax % for most vaccinated counties/places compared with less vaccinated counties/places.

[Game Over]

So far in OR, only somewhere in the neighborhood of 7% of pop. has tested positive for Covid so delta is deffinetly ripping through the unvaxxed. Add to all of the above the fact that one size does not fit all. Looking at overall vax % for an entire state does not describe vax % for most vaccinated counties / places compared with less vaccinated counties / places.

Why isn’t this true for other places-> like FL or even MI?

[bennymac]

Can we put steep back on another time out? We didn’t appreciate how good it was to have him gone. He’s gonna cunt up this thread like he’s driving a tractor into a ditch.

[Game Over]

So it seems the consensus in here is that everything is alright on the covid front?

:mind blown:

[LongShortLong]

@ LongShortLong. It's less a case of Steep being both right and wrong and more a case of using the motte-and-bailey fallacy to draw specious conclusions.

Hey guys he’s Just Asking Questions.

I see now. I did enjoy responding, don't think he read it though. Looks like a Gish Gallop is starting

[skiJ]

guys. ...

I am pretty-sure I don't want to jump in to this attack on steep., But

he did Ask for help making sense of the article in the Oregonian - and the 'statistics' the article claimed to cite --


steep., I think you, ,,, would be better off not trying to cite 'statistics' claimed by the popular press -
in my experience, they are often manipulation of data to promote a certain position ;

48% vaccination rate is not great.

there is no 100% vaccination rate, Because we are not vaccinating people under the age of 12
( so there is always a population of people, ,,, that can serve as reservoirs for the virus ).

the '22%' you cite from the article is not the '(number of) cases' of covid ; rather
it is the percentage of deaths With covid in fully vaccinated individuals, of the total number of deaths With covid, in the month of August
( I am not sure what either the author's purpose or your purpose is in citing this (calculation. it is more a calculation, than a statistic, because it compares two pieces of data that may or may not correlate ), so let's set that aside...


the (State) Department of Health report offers some data for the month of August -


I hope we can agree about some simple observations -

- the number of covid cases reported in August...
- there are more cases of covid in unvaccinated people than in vaccinated people - [ corrected. Thank you ]

- the vaccines do appear to be effectively limiting ( decreasing(?)) the number of cases of covid --
- the incidence of covid and deaths associated with covid is low in vaccinated people, And
lower in vaccinated people than in unvaccinated people -

I hope we can agree the data shows these observations.

so much of the previous page is projection -
and simply attacking steep. for asking for insight really hurts the credibility of a few posters...

pages ago, I offered,
there is just no reasoning with some people...

there are a number of cliches' about statistics. ... I believe if you stick with the raw data, your argument is stronger.
also, I still think it is better to avoid emotional language and name-calling. ...


it's hard.
people are still dying --

schools are just reopening, and
I have already read that Dickinson county, Kansas is closing school(s) for the next week due to the surge in covid.
( that may not affect those in Oregon. . . ) --

my Suggestion is promote your Goal, Not argue statistics ( in my experience, one may win the argument, and leave the person you were hoping to convince, More determined to oppose your position. ( I call that counter-productive. ) )

- vaccination reduces cases of disease, and reduces numbers of deaths ;
- of 321 deaths with covid in August(2021) in Oregon, 70 people were vaccinated, 251 were not vaccinated ( the report did not say what other factors contributed to those deaths ) ;

( I did not see anywhere in steep.'s posts where he claimed 'people have an inflated sense of security' , or that '100% vaccination rate would make 'the pandemic' easier to control' ( to me, these comments are projections ) )

I am sympathetic to some of the challenges many of us face -
I am greatly relieved my parents did not have to experience this at the end of their lives
( I have friends who are coping with this ) -
I also have friends raising young children - and I read of the challenges for parents in the pages of these threads...

... there is just no reasoning with some people...
( I believe that comes from a quotation attributed to Lincoln )

thanks for (listening) . . .
Good luck !

Respectfully. tj

[Skidog]

Fear is what you eat for breakfast. You love it.

3 pages of steep's shit. GTFO dood.

Yeah man don't have a different opinion, or thought, or view. It's not the "tgr way" assimilate to the Borg.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using TGR Forums mobile app

[skaredshtles]

Can you dumb motherfuckers ( ) stop responding to that dumb motherfucker... please?

Pretty please?

[MultiVerse]

( I did not see anywhere in steep.'s posts where he claimed 'people have an inflated sense of security' , or that '100% vaccination rate would make 'the pandemic' easier to control' ( to me, these comments are projections ) )

These comments are not projections. Steep argued the vaccinated have an inflated sense of security and that even if everyone were vaccinated the pandemic would still be out of control (see below).

But when challenged, he advanced the more modest position vax rates need to be higher in America to reduce the transmission rate. That's how the motte-and-bailey fallacy works. It's the go to troll move for people like Steep, RJ, and many others...

Reeks of cherry picking IMV. It’s damaging in that it gives the vaccinated a inflated sense of security that could influence bad choices.

It’s blatantly obvious that we are going to need more than just getting everyone vaccinated to control this.

I’m saying that even best case 100% vax rate this virus is still scary.

[Game Over]

These these comments are not projections. Steep argued the vaccinated have an inflated sense of security and that even if everyone were vaccinated the pandemic would still be out of control:

Short story->

I posted this morning because the way the data was presented irked me… and that I further realized the possibility of this not being endemic is zero.

[The AD]

So it seems the consensus in here is that everything is alright on the covid front?

:mind blown:

If you've been following this thread and that's your takeaway, then your reading comprehension needs improvement.

[skiJ]

These comments are not projections. Steep argued the vaccinated have an inflated sense of security and that even if everyone were vaccinated the pandemic would still be out of control (see below).

But when challenged, he advanced the more modest position vax rates need to be higher in America to reduce the transmission rate. That's how the motte-and-bailey fallacy works. It's the go to troll move for people like Steep, RJ, and many others...

fair-ly presented, Multi- ; I read it differently -

in the post you cite, steep. ( who is I am urging to dial it back today ) states the statistics could give the vaccinated an inflated sense of security ( Because the vaccinated have fewer deaths associated with covid than the unvaccinated ) -
I did not see in steep.'s post a claim that 'IF vaccination rate was 100% ( A false hope ) that the pandemic would still be out of control' --

steep. definitely used some exaggerated language, but to me, that was more a matter of him expressing his alarm than pursing an argument.

perhaps I am splitting a proverbial hair - from my perspective, that is what is being done with statistical arguments - -

from my perspective, ,,, I would like to help steep. evolve his expectations ( I think it was clear long before vaccine was available, that we are never going to approach 100% vaccination rate - and
I believe the idea that we are going to 'control' a pandemic in a matter of months in 2021(,) is simply Not going to happen. )

I am not going to dig into some of the (details) of some of these arguments in the thread -

steep. Asked for insight -
the responses that include personal attacks,,, ( I'm sorry ).


yes, steep., we are going to have to continue to live with covid ( it ain't going away. ).
the article in the Oregonian does not say what you thought it said ( regarding covid and deaths, and vaccination status. )

breakthough cases are occurring. we are going to have to continue to evolve our response this virus and this disease.


thanks for (listening)... skiJ