To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[lucknau]

We should also expect to see a variant that is fully immune to the existing vaccines. Probably sooner than later.

[MultiVerse]

in the post you cite, steep. ( who is I am urging to dial it back today ) states the statistics could give the vaccinated an inflated sense of security ( Because the vaccinated have fewer deaths associated with covid than the unvaccinated ) - I did not see in steep.'s post a claim that 'IF vaccination rate was 100% ( A false hope ) that the pandemic would still be out of control' --

steep. definitely used some exaggerated language, but to me, that was more a matter of him expressing his alarm than pursing an argument.

FWIW, polls show the opposite is occurring. Overall compared to a just month or two ago, rather than gaining a false sense of security the vaccinated are more concerned about breakthrough cases while the unvaxxed now argue vaccines don't work.

Both groups are wrong. Objectively the vaccinated remain at low risk. But psychologically they're more worried even though anyone younger than 60 and vaccinated in Oregon has a 30X lower chance of being hospitalized with Covid than their unvaccinated age cohort. Even for someone older than 60 the vaccines still look good with a ~13X reduced risk. It's only after about age 80 when the vaccines 'only' performs 4X better than going unvaxxed.

[RShea]

guys. ...
- there are more cases of covid in unvaccinated people than in unvaccinated people -

Please correct this statement- I assume you mean: - there are more cases of covid in unvaccinated people than in vaccinated people -

[LongShortLong]

FWIW, polls show the opposite is occurring. Overall compared to a just month or two ago, rather than the vaccinated gaining a false sense of security the vaccinated are now more concerned about breakthrough infections while unvaxxed argue vaccines don't work.

Objectively the vaccinated remain at low risk, but psychologically they're more worried even though the vaccinated have a 30x lower chance of being hospitalized with Covid than someone who is unvaccinated.

The risk is not low.

I tend to go with 20x protection vs death, and a 1% IFR, and a high long covid injury rate that vax provides little protection against (maybe 2x). So 1 in 2000 for death and maybe 1 in 20 for injury that affects my ability to work or ski. The death number is too high for my taste, though for society I could see it as a reasonable trade. However, that injury rate is truly frightening. If the pandemic keeps on as it is, I'm going to be infected, and find the outcomes unacceptable.

[k2skier112]

Can we put steep back on another time out? We didn’t appreciate how good it was to have him gone. He’s gonna cunt up this thread like he’s driving a tractor into a ditch.

Makes sense now, his absence wasn't his call. Sharon did melt down

[skiJ]

Please correct this statement- I assume you mean: - there are more cases of covid in unvaccinated people than in vaccinated people -

yes. correct - and corrected. Thank you. tj

(( And my statement was regarding the information steep. cited ( the Oregon data for August2021 ), lest my statement be projected to some county or township where it might be False. ( Good grief ) ))

[frorider]

skiJ we have plenty here who ask good faith questions that experts on firefighting or immunology or V12 engine tuning are happy to answer. However steep has a track record of not being in that category. It’s like getting into a fencing match with a rabid chihuahua. Amusing at first but nothing gets resolved.

[KQ]

LOL!! It's almost like you guys haven't eaten in a week. Waters are being chummed and it's a fenzy.

[MultiVerse]

The risk is not low.

I tend to go with 20x protection vs death, and a 1% IFR, and a high long covid injury rate that vax provides little protection against (maybe 2x). So 1 in 2000 for death and maybe 1 in 20 for injury that affects my ability to work or ski. The death number is too high for my taste, though for society I could see it as a reasonable trade. However, that injury rate is truly frightening. If the pandemic keeps on as it is, I'm going to be infected, and find the outcomes unacceptable.

I'm not arguing for or against anyone's own personal risk assessment — these are just the numbers currently available: In the UK where they perform random antibody testing and collect much better data vaccination caused the IFR to fall from about 1%, to around 0.05-0.1% for the entire vaccinated and unvaccinated population. The current 7 day rolling average is 1 per ten thousand (100/million=0.0001). The vaccinated rate is even lower. The UK has better coverage in the older population hence a lower IFR. Whereas here in the United States about 10-15% of the older 60+ pop doesn't trust vaccines, a main driver of our higher hospitalization & fatality rates.

The risk reduction multiples for Oregon — 30X under 60, 13X under 80, 4X for 80+ — are the most recent numbers for the month of August.

[Game Over]

The risk is not low.

I tend to go with 20x protection vs death, and a 1% IFR, and a high long covid injury rate that vax provides little protection against (maybe 2x). So 1 in 2000 for death and maybe 1 in 20 for injury that affects my ability to work or ski. The death number is too high for my taste, though for society I could see it as a reasonable trade. However, that injury rate is truly frightening. If the pandemic keeps on as it is, I'm going to be infected, and find the outcomes unacceptable.

This is how we feel. With a six year old on top of it. I will feel much better once he is vaxed but still will concerned about permanent damage from long covid unless the numbers are reasonable by then..,

[Vt-Freeheel]

Can you dumb motherfuckers ( ) stop responding to that dumb motherfucker... please?

Pretty please?

Which of the dumb motherfuckers? Pick any two?

[Game Over]

Makes sense now, his absence wasn't his call. Sharon did melt down

Don’t get excited shorty-> It was voluntary.

[Kinnikinnick]

Steep says that there is a 22% “death rate” among the vaccinated!!!


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[skiJ]

skiJ we have plenty here who ask good faith questions that experts on firefighting or immunology or V12 engine tuning are happy to answer. However steep has a track record of not being in that category. It’s like getting into a fencing match with a rabid chihuahua. Amusing at first but nothing gets resolved.

understood -

( I was aware there has been a previous instance ( though I am not aware what it was ) )

in my personal experience, the dog bites from the little dogs were the worst ( though I have a friend and colleague who was mauled by a malmute ) )

( I still don't believe the personal attacks are necessary nor enhance the message )


to me, this is one of several threads in these forums that make me Glad to be part of this community -

LongShortLong's contributions to this thread Today are more valuable (to me) than anything I have read about covid in the last three months - Thank you.


And thank you, frorider, for the 'heads-up' !

Respectfully. skiJ

[k2skier112]

Don’t get excited shorty-> It was voluntary.

bless your heart sharon

[bennymac]

Steep has at least a 7 year history of being a self admitted troll and self admitted asshole just here to stir shit up - including using an alias and having a conversation with his alias to further his trolling.

He may have legit questions (which is kinda rich because he says he has multiple graduate degrees in science and reads Nature to relax) but maybe he needs to find another website where he hasn’t ruined his credibility with over half a decade of cunting up threads purely for selfish attention.

Less steep/sharon. More good faith discussion and learning.

[twat]

Just realized how shit it must feel if u are antivaxx. The whole first world turns against you. All your vaxxed friends. All the leading politicions.
You basicaly become an outlaw.
And all the official news sites.
Not nice

[yeahman]

Just realized how shit it must feel if u are antivaxx. The whole first world turns against you. All your vaxxed friends. All the leading politicions.
You basicaly become an outlaw.
And all the official news sites.
Not nice

They love it. It feeds their persecution complex.

[Game Over]

Look at all the people still butthurt because I returned fire after having enough of the personal attacks. You can dish it but not take it.

Y’all haven’t changed. You are not open to any thought you don’t agree with-> this is obvious with how you treat people like cono and debased. Repeatedly calling them mentally ill and morons.

To say you are holier than thou would be a massive understatement.

[MultiVerse]

Assuming you really wanted an answer to your question, if you had spent less time returning fire and more time considering the earnest responses then I think you would have found the answer interesting and satisfying.

They love it. It feeds their persecution complex.

In the eyes of vaccine skeptics, the experts’ opinion, paradoxically, is the best demonstration that they are right to skip vaccination.

[LongShortLong]

This needs qualification before you go too far with it.

I'm drawing my numbers from various sources lost to memory, but primarily from a recent TWiV episode Skip to 33:33 for a couple post-Covid study discussions. Go to microbe.tv for TWiV's source studies.

It's hard to get solid numbers on post-Covid problems, and reports are often unclear what group they are reporting on. There's a difference between tested positive, symptomatic, hospitalized, etc. This makes it hard for me to put a high degree of trust in the numbers, and I lean toward pessimistic as I'd rather learn the risk was lower than I thought. In the TWiV clip, when Dr. Griffin says "acute Covid," I'm 99% that phrase means tested positive. He says in his consulting with companies, 10-12% cannot return to work.

The risk is not low.

I tend to go with 20x protection vs death, and a 1% IFR, and a high long covid injury rate that vax provides little protection against (maybe 2x). So 1 in 2000 for death and maybe 1 in 20 for injury that affects my ability to work or ski. The death number is too high for my taste, though for society I could see it as a reasonable trade. However, that injury rate is truly frightening. If the pandemic keeps on as it is, I'm going to be infected, and find the outcomes unacceptable.

[Game Over]

^Im the same as far as pessimism. I’d rather be on the safe side.. Assume the worst and be happy if/when you are wrong.

Assuming you really wanted an answer to your question, if you had spent less time returning fire and more time considering the earnest responses then I think you would have found the answer interesting and satisfying.




In the eyes of vaccine skeptics, the experts’ opinion, paradoxically, is the best demonstration that they are right to skip vaccination.

I found it thanks to you and a couple others. I appreciate it, thank you.

I was just totally taken back by the general response and reacted instead of take it in….

[MultiVerse]

^ For context, there's been a steady stream of trolls over the past couple of months saying ha ha look at Iceland, Israel, and so on 'the vaccines don't work'... so you might have experienced some friendly fire with the Oregon article.

[Game Over]

^ For context, there's been a steady stream of trolls over the past couple of months saying ha ha look at Iceland, Israel, and so on 'the vaccines don't work'... so you might be a victim of friendly fire with the Oregon article.

I like throwing them for a loop and responding with a “well Trump came up with it-> what did you expect?”

[old goat]

A vaccine prompts your body to create the antibodies needed to FIGHT THE DISEASE IF YOU GET IT. It's working fantastically, as evidenced by the fact that almost all the people getting severe covid and ending up in the ICU are unvaccinated. End of story as far as I'm concerned.

End of story? More like the never ending story.

@ LongShortLong. It's less a case of Steep being both right and wrong and more a case of using the motte-and-bailey fallacy to draw specious conclusions.

Motte and bailey. I love learning new stuff.