To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[MultiVerse]

In this instance, your accusations of gaslighting are just a form of gaslighting. Your math does not check out.


↓↓ Yeah really, your math sucks because by oversimplifying you jumped to the wrong conclusions WRT the death rate. Go back and read the article linked above ↓↓

[Game Over]

In this instance, your accusations of gaslighting are just a form of gaslighting. You math does not check out.

Really?

If FuLL vaCCinAtion isN’T peRfEct whY Do it aT alL!

He’s making the perfect the enemy of the good.

[ill-advised strategy]

Welp, now you caught some fish…Sunday morning at the ol tgr pond!

[Game Over]

It’s a hard thing…you want vaccinated people to lock down and wear n95 masks and close restaurants and shit…but getting back to a somewhat normal life is at least one of the biggest motivators, if not the biggest motivator, motivating people to get their shots.

This is my point- back to normal with low transmission is a dishonest pipe dream.

[MultiVerse]

You're wrong.

Even though the overall low vax rate means we'll see a steady state "COVID season" this winter, that does not mean as the vax rate and previous infection rate increases — the transmission rate, hospitalization rate, and death rate won't decrease.

[Game Over]

You're wrong.

I hope so.

[ill-advised strategy]

If vaccinated people are having infection outcomes kinda something like influenza, wouldn’t a herd immunity level of vaccination result in being able to live lifestyles roughly the same as during flu season…where institutionalized settings might have a few extra measures but by and large life goes on as normal?

Is that really so unrealistic?

[Game Over]

Here is the data. Anyone that can show my math wrong go ahead.

Would love to see if. This shit bums me out.

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/D...ase-Report.pdf

[frorider]

Hey guys he’s Just Asking Questions.

[yeahman]

Here is the data. Anyone that can show my math wrong go ahead.

Would love to see if. This shit bums me out.

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/D...ase-Report.pdf

Everything in that report supports vaccination being BY FAR being the best and safest option. I don't get what your point is. Why are you bummed out?

[MultiVerse]

He doesn't have a point.

If he bothered to read to read the posts on the previous page he'd know his question has already been answered. In a nutshell Oregon is seeing a similar Covid distribution disparity that we saw in Israel: unvaxxed skews younger; vaccinated breakthrough skew older. So as unvaxxed people who haven't had Covid shrinks, folks looking at Oregon data will wrongly argue vaccines aren't working.

[Game Over]

Everything in that report supports vaccination being BY FAR being the best and safest option. I don't get what your point is. Why are you bummed out?

Because this thing is endemic and much worse than the flu. Vaccination is (as always) a game changer. But in this case it’s not enough to stop it dead.

[bennymac]

You guys are forgetting that Steep reads Nature as light, relaxing reading. His parents used to read it to him as a child. So if you think you’re gonna school him on statistics and study methodology think again.

[Game Over]

He doesn't have a point.

If he bothered to read to read the posts on the previous page he's know his question has already been answered. In a nutshell Oregon is seeing a similar Covid distribution disparity that we saw in Israel: unvaccinated skew younger; vaccinated breakthrough skew older. So as our unvaccinated people who haven't had Covid shrinks, there will be reports in Oregon wrongly stating efficacy is waning.

Wrong.
Median breakthrough age is 48. Average case age is 49. It’s in the link I posted above.

[ill-advised strategy]

Everything in that report supports vaccination being BY FAR being the best and safest option. I don't get what your point is. Why are you bummed out?

Looks like pretty good outcomes to me

[bennymac]

[MultiVerse]

Wrong.
Median breakthrough age is 48. Average case age is 49. It’s in the link I posted above.

Seriously, why not just read the article linked on the previous page?

Aren't you even a little curious? Why does the distribution in Oregon look different by age/vax stratification vs. overall? Why is it that by age group in Oregon a person is 10-38x less likely to get Covid if vaccinated vs 8x less likely overall?

You can't just look at averages. You must consider age / vaccination stratification. The reason why you're wrong, why you're being fooled by medians/averages, has to do with the high % of unvaccinated Oregonians who haven't had Covid.

[ill-advised strategy]

You guys are forgetting that Steep reads Nature as light, relaxing reading. His parents used to read it to him as a child. So if you think you’re gonna school him on statistics and study methodology think again.

Fair enough, I can barely read tgr.

Ugh… whatever. I got my shots, I’m not going to lollapalooza, get off my lawn.

[yeahman]

Because this thing is endemic and much worse than the flu. Vaccination is (as always) a game changer. But in this case it’s not enough to stop it dead.

A vaccine prompts your body to create the antibodies needed to FIGHT THE DISEASE IF YOU GET IT. It's working fantastically, as evidenced by the fact that almost all the people getting severe covid and ending up in the ICU are unvaccinated. End of story as far as I'm concerned.

[bennymac]

Dr. Theresa Tam (Canada's Dr Fauci) said Friday that unvaccinated people are 12 times more likely to be infected and 36 times more likely to be hospitalized if they get infected.

I didn’t see a source linked with her comment.

[TBS]

Welp, now you caught some fish…Sunday morning at the ol tgr pond!

This. I wish the trout on the Metolius River were as quick to bite as some of you guys.

[Game Over]

Seriously, why not just read the article linked on the previous page?

Aren't you even a little curious? Why does the distribution in Oregon look differeent by age/vac stratification vs. overall? Why is it that by age group in Oregon a person is 10-38x less likely to get Covid if vaccinated vs 8x less likely overall?

The reason why you're wrong, why you're being fooled by medians/averages, has to do with the high % of unvaccinated Oregonians who haven't had Covid.

I am in no way doubting the vaccines effectiveness.

I’m saying that even best case 100% vax rate this virus is still scary.

[Peruvian]

Gotta be 90% plus maggots boot up in the lot if no kids accompany them. Only time I’ve ever booted in the lodge was when I was teaching my daughter to ski.

Animals.

[MultiVerse]

lol @ Steep, with a 100% national vax rate the transmission rate R0 would fall below 1 and the virus would only be scary in the sense that polio in America today is scary.

[LongShortLong]

This is my point- back to normal with low transmission is a dishonest pipe dream.

Steep's right about several things. First, 48% is the correct vax rate. Covid doesn't care how old you are, and in fact will spread better when vaccination excludes a demographic group, kids in this case. I don't understand why %vaxxed of eligible is the common metric, it should be %vaxxed of total population.

Using the 58% number is a damn lie type of statistic, and is undermining public health. People see 58% and remember... "ah, that's close to herd immunity. And yet delta spreads like mad. Therefore these scientists are spouting ivory tower crap that doesn't work in the actual world." <- That is wrong, it's simply that 48% isn't close to herd immunity, and with delta we think herd immunity number is higher, perhaps even above 80%.

Did you actually read the article? Among fully vaccinated people the percentage of hospitalization is .027 % and the percentage of death is .0047%. That’s pretty fucking good and a reason to get vaccinated.

This is another damn lie type of statistic, that also undermines public health. (This is the same lie Trump told us when there were hardly any cases and risk was very low. CDC also tells this lie) It makes the vaxxed think they are far safer than they are. It's obvious to even a simpleton that as time passes, more of the vaccinated will get hospitalized and die. Public health-wise, if we don't stop spread, we'll all have many exposures, so the proper stat is what % of the covid-positive vaccinated get hospitalized or die. Maybe vaccination protects some of us from ever getting infected - if so correct for that too.

And, steep's math does not check out. Others have pointed out that the vaxxed and unvaxxed populations are not the same and cannot be directly compared like that. However, even treating the two populations as comparable samples, steep's math is wrong.
Say there were 100 cases. If half the population had 80% of the cases, and were instead vaccinated, their 80 cases would become 20 cases. So vaccinating them reduces total cases by 60%.

Now, in the actual situation, vaccinated people don't spread Covid as well. Vaccination reduces the chance of infection by about 75%, and also reduces onward transmission by 50%. Very rough numbers. Any way, the point is that if everyone is vaxxed, Covid likely goes away and no one would get sick (like most every disease we vaccinate for). So instead of full vaccination producing a 60% reduction in cases, it produces a much greater reduction, likely 100% and ends the pandemic.