50 years to the day

[summit]

No radiation per IAEA is ambiguous in terms of BDA. Again, UF6 is heavy and highly reactive with any water which yields UO2F2 which is super soluble and hydrophilic, so not sure it's propensity to escape in this scenario where Iran sealed the facility with a fuckton of dirt and then the US did its best to crush/collapse it, and if that was successful, you expect broken centrifuges leaking gas if they were operating rather than shut down and purged... and perhaps UF6 storage tank breaches depending how they stored it and whether it was subject to heat (UF6 solidifies at normal atmospheric pressure in any temperature a human can survive in). You'd expect the facility to be dry dry dry and all firefighting equipment to be CO2/Halon based to avoid the exothermics of water plus UF6. So... not sure we'd expect a big release of radiation even if the UF6 storage tanks breached. And the IAEAs monitoring equipment that is functioning... where is it relative to the site?

[jono]

True. The uranium might have been moved or its buried under a mountain. The centrifuges however are probably destroyed

Hopefully. If they're not we're in the worst case scenario, having proven that the bunkers can't be busted and our threat has no value a la post-2022 Russia. Another flight tonight would be a bad sign.

[summit]

I do not think we are gonna be able to have absolute certainty as to what happened inside Fordo from open source information short of the edge case that it is fully intact and a reliable third party getting a tour inside from the Iranians if they assess that propo value is greater than inviting further attack.

[jono]

Seems about right. If it is intact they have at least 2 ways to take advantage and they might be quite pleased right now: Trump doesn't change light bulbs, he announces there's light and his supporters cheer in the dark. So if this didn't work but Iran says it did, they can move forward in functionally perfect secrecy because he won't challenge them on it. And if the bombs didn't work it's not real likely they'd do better on another run.

[highangle]

Bros seismic info can tell if theres still a cavity down there.

If General Jojo dumped it in my lap rn, Id say drop some radio-linked geophone receivers in the ground and then an atenuated explosive 'sound' source other side of target to 'x-ray' it.

But thats just me with 30 seconds. The peeps who designed the mission are smarter than me and had years.

[summit]

Sure, I bet there are methods to somewhat determine the condition of Fordo with on the ground intelligence, maybe even ISR assets. We'll never get to see that info.

If the Iranians known the condition of Fordo, and it is quite possible they don't even know yet, I bet it leaks to the Izzies. Everything else has. If Fordo is destroyed, the Izzies will stick to their previous statements. If not, the Izzies must do something about it.

[Cono Este]

Those bombs casings are 80% of the weight. So the warheads are only 5000-6000 lbs. if put in the right place, I’d say it’s one of those Force Ten From Navarone endings. “Delayed effect” those tunnels are structurally fucked.

[Bunion 2020]

Following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday, the Iranian Parliament has voted in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the worlds most critical oil transit chokepoints, according to media reports.

Any final decision on retaliation, however, will rest with the countrys Supreme National Security Council and leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The parliament vote merely advises him of the option to pursue.

[summit]

^3 hours ago I posted:

"While Iran's legislature approved a measure to close Hormuz, they have no real power. It requires the Supreme Leader's direction and his IRCG are reportedly opposed to it because suicide and economic suicide without any sizeable win attached aren't their style. IRGC is happy to die with purpose."

The link in that post discusses why it is so militarily, economically, and diplomatically self-defeating and will really really really piss off China.

[highangle]

Seems about right. If it is intact they have at least 2 ways to take advantage and they might be quite pleased right now: Trump doesn't change light bulbs, he announces there's light and his supporters cheer in the dark. So if this didn't work but Iran says it did, they can move forward in functionally perfect secrecy because he won't challenge them on it. And if the bombs didn't work it's not real likely they'd do better on another run.

Intact - collapsing a mine is really not the hardest job in the world, as the history of Kentucky may demonstrate

Functionally perfect secrecy - might function with you, if you tie your hands with artificial moral constraints and appoint a Paki inspector with thick glasses and a hearing aid. Functionally perfect nuclear secrecy seems hard to acheive once you've made the anihilation of Israel your principal nuclear priority though, so avoid that.

Hoping the bombs didnt work - my brother you can pray they didnt work too if it makes you feel better.

[jono]

Your literacy seems to be running at about its usual average. Is that good for mid-day?

[summit]

The world has ample tools to crush an Iranian attempt to close Hormuz.

But imagine if Iran had nukes and decided to close Hormuz, and threatened nuclear retaliation if force was used to open Hormuz?

[Cono Este]

Iran has no fucking defense from aircraft. Good luck. Theyve probably stayed away from bombing ports, refineries for China etc so far. And fuck Russia. This is how you fuck them the most when they are all tied up.

[MultiVerse]

Khamenei is 86. One way or another there's going to be a new leader in Iran.

In that sense the bulk of the Islamic Republic's state apparatus, military, police, etc., exists to suppress its own people demanding freedom. There are factions who want a free market economy, peace with America & Israel, to allow women to wear whatever they want. The regime and its supporters won't just melt away, of course. But Iran has more than a hundred year history, albeit fraught, with democracy. Its people are historically more liberal and more educated than its neighbors.

Iranians now know they've been impoverished to fund Hezbollah & Hamas—both a shadow of their former incarnations—the Houthis, to build ballistic missiles that are wildly inaccurate, massively overbuilt nuclear facilities, and most of all corruption:


‘Everybody Knows Khamenei’s Days Are Numbered’

"For years, Khamenei has led his country in chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” while avoiding fighting either on Iran’s home turf. Now Iranian territory is under fire from both. The country faces a stark choice: Either it expands the war and risks additionally antagonizing the Gulf countries that host American bases, or it seeks a historic compromise with the U.S. that would mean giving up its decades-long hostility. Khamenei’s stance is at once recalcitrant and cautious to the point of cowardice. Elites around him are wondering whether he will have to be tossed aside in pursuit of either course."

https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...-aside/683286/

[cat in january]

So what if Putin decides to give Iran a bomb and moves it over the Caspian Sea. Despite Moscow’s depletion in the war with Ukraine it is airspace they can control. What if they give them five nukes, but there are a hundred ballistic missiles they could be part of. Could the US/ Israel destroy all 100 in a singe strike not allowing a single fired back and therefore no nukes raining on Israel? Russia has intoned it could give Iran nukes. What if China is good with it? If Iran keeps its powder dry until nuked up and then says no more or we all go for a ride. Has the opposite outcome come about? Certainly the US would not presumptively hit Russia. Definitely not endorsing this happening, just pointing out there are some bad plausible scenarios

[summit]

Do you think Russia trusts Iran with nukes? I don't. Not at all. And even if they kinda sorta wanted to, it isn't in Russia's interest. Let's see why by seeing how it roughly plays out with the large required strokes:

"Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost if you keep it a secret! Why didn't you tell the world, EH?"

Iran has to either test a nuke or it has to have Russia declare the transfer of nukes.

Digging a sufficient bore hole to do a contained test is not something Iran has done, and it isn't a small operation. We saw the Nork one. I'm not sure if they have the tools, but it would be easy to spot them, they are conspicuous. You aren't drilling a 6" oil well. You are digging a 6+ft wide hole 1000s of feet deep. You are talking about a very wide and very deep bore hole moving 5000 tons of rock, then you have to backfill and seal. If you don't do it this way you get Shot Banberry from Operation Emery and vent a nice big cloud. You might end up doing that anyway (like Banberry which went through a rock fault). And what happens if it vents? Well both based on the seismic pattern and the inevitable Iranian declaration, a WC-135 sniffs the fallout and goes "smells exactly like Russian plutonium" (because we have the ability to do exactly that). Oh yea, it's gonna be a plutonium bomb, which automatically gives away that it wasn't of Iranian origin, besides our ability to ID the plutonium source.

Anyway here are the possibilities:
1. A bore hole gets noticed and potentially blown up then ID'd as Russian.
2. A bad bore hole or a surface test gets ID'd as Russian.
3. A Russian declaration ID's it as Russian.
4. A perfect and non-ID'd borehole doesn't get ID'd upfront, but a huge intel operation would follow if it hadn't already detected or suspected the transfer.
5. The bomb gets used, and ID'd as Russian.

In any event, we would know or could suspect Iran's bomb came from Russia, which gives us choices:

1. Stabilize by openly declaring what is already well understood by nuclear powers: an attack with Russian nukes is an attack by Russia and we will retaliate.
and/or
2. Nuclear Escalate by launching a disarming nuclear first strike against Iranian nuclear capabilities
and/or
3. Wildcard Escalate by giving Ukraine nukes

Fun, right? </s>

If they want to try, if the centrifuges are fucked, for them to kludge a bomb or two outa their 600kg of HEU60. Theoretically they could do that. They'd need to start with converting the HEU60 UF6 to metal U (oops that facility got blowed up too, yay!), and also get really good at... let's say... state of the art ways to make say 150-300kg prompt supercritical enough that it yields significantly before blowing itself apart. The actual weapon would be huge, heavy, and not very powerful (for its weight, as a nuke, all things are relative) if it even worked... as in it probably needs to be delivered in a cargo container or in the cargo bay of a large jet airliner, but they could theoretically maybe build one out of HEU60.

[cat in january]

Yes of course the whole point would be that it wasn’t secret. I don’t see the need for testing if Russia supplies active nuclear weapons.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[summit]

You missed the point. If Russia is crazy enough to say "we are going to give nukes to Iran" we'd say "if they are used we'll nuke you" and/or blow them up and/or say "then we'll give nukes to Ukraine"

No potential gains for Russia outweigh these risks.

[cat in january]

Right. The whole point of nukes is deterrence.Seems a bigger leap that Trump would give nukes to Ukraine as a response, than Putin would give nukes to Iran now. I don’t think Putin would do it without China’s approval. The scenario doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility. Again Russia has intoned it may be willing to give nukes to Iran.

[The Nuclear Option]

Your whole scenario is based in Iran testing a Russian nuke. They wouldn’t need to test a fully functional nuke on a delivery system that the Russians provided.They’d just have it, ready for launch, ready for Detonation.

[Bunion 2020]

Meanwhile Trump keeps talking regime change. That would most likely mean an IRG Government.

[The Nuclear Option]

Assuming that the Russians are logically weighing benefits! LOL

[californiagrown]

The world has ample tools to crush an Iranian attempt to close Hormuz. But imagine if Iran had nukes and decided to close Hormuz, and threatened nuclear retaliation if force was used to open Hormuz?

I dont think its so much that we have the military ability to meet and defeat an Iranian blockade of the strait...but that insurers would jack up rates crazy high or simply refuse to insure tankers traveling through the strait which would have a very large impact on oil supply. And remember that iran has cheap and plentiful lives and drones to use to make the strait uninsurable, while the USA/World would be forced to use super expensive defensive measures to keep the strait open.

I dont think Iran really has any other cards to play at this point. Military leadership is shattered, air defense is completely gone. making the strait super dangerous with drone/speedboat swarm attacks (even if they do not succeed often) is their best card to play.

[summit]

TNO: I covered no testing situation, if Iran or Russia just declare Russia gave a nuke, then they have revealed it came from Russia. The reason you have to declare or test is basic deterrence and why I made the Strangelove quote. \
1. You can't deter an adversary if they don't know you have the deterrent.
2. Deterrents must be credible to be effective, so the enemy has to believe it works, thus the need for Iran to test it, or for it to known that a credible bomb came to them from Russia.

Look at the counter-sensible scenarios:

1. Russia isn't going to just secretly give Iran a bomb and then have Iran claim they have a bomb that they made themselves without a test. The world will doubt them, and if Iran uses it, it will be obvious it was Russian.
2. Russia sure isn't going to secretly give Iran a bomb under the idea that Iran will not declare their nuclear capability. That would have an intent that Iran would attempt to use the bomb by surprise as an offensive/terror weapon, not a deterrent... and again, it will be obvious it was Russian.

[californiagrown]

Why does everyone think russia would be the prime gift giver? Hows about Pakistan or DPRK. Neither would miss 1 nuke, and both would immensely enjoy Iranian backing and weapons/money.