Is the stock market going to tank?

**LeeLau** · 03-04-2025, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

Doesnt tesla also include SpaceX and a host of other companies under the Tesla umbrella? Long term, i see SpaceX as big prize (monopoly on every country's satellites, communications, the whole damn internet, etc all largely financed and supported by fat government handouts).

No

**MultiVerse** · 03-04-2025, 05:27 PM

SpaceX is a privately held company. Increasingly companies like SpaceX and OpenAI etc. are choosing to remain private because they can easily raise capital without the hassle of going public. It's an unwelcome trend for public investors

**Cono Este** · 03-04-2025, 05:48 PM

One of the reasons I hold tesla is Elon says Tesla shareholders will get dibs if any of his other companies go public.

**shroom** · 03-04-2025, 05:51 PM

i love it. keep profits in house and give every employee ownership. exponential wealth machine just drives inequality and short term finance driven culture today

**bobz** · 03-04-2025, 06:00 PM

No, but I think Tesla does include the potentially huge market for home/industrial/municipal battery systems.

The idea that Tesla's robotaxi concept justifies up to $1/2 trillion in current market cap continues to strike me as insane. Autonomous taxi services, which I agree are around some kind of future corner, won't be a new market, but an evolution of the existing market that uses human drivers, of which human drivers aren't even the biggest cost. Replacing drivers with AI will only modestly reduce the price of a hired ride, which means that the market will only modestly grow from its current size. For nearly all adults with some kind of income (and who don't live in Manhattan or SF's NE quadrant), a personal car will continue to be far more convenient and (over time) cheaper than hiring rides.

And it's hardly a given that Tesla will dominate this market that a different company already dominates. Uber already has the brand name, client-server network, customer base, and the many existing drivers with cars who will provide the necessary load-balancing during the transition to autonomous rides. Any car company can make cars that can be controlled by an autonomous driving system (and which have steering wheels, pedals, rearview mirrors, etc removed); Google's first stab at self-driving test vehicles used Toyotas (Lexus RX300s I seem to recall). And by pretty much all accounts, other than Elon's say-so, Waymo leads the pack in autonomous driving technology. Oh yeah, and Uber's and Lyft's combined market cap is less than 1/5 that of Tesla's (and the prospect of a driverless future should be just as priced in to their stocks as it is for Tesla's).

And don't get me started on dancing humanoid robots.

**J. Barron DeJong** · 03-04-2025, 06:26 PM

Does Tesla have any patented technology that would lead them to dominate the battery storage market? I don't think that market has an equivalent to something like self-driving where if you crack it it's possible you have the market to yourself for a long time.
For example, CATL is the largest utility scale battery storage company in the world... and Tesla buys CATL battery packs to be used in the MegaPacks they assemble in Shanghai.

**shroom** · 03-04-2025, 06:27 PM

Originally Posted by CascadeLuke

Heavy UVIX and TSLS have me grinning. LG baby

https://x.com/CheddarFlow/status/1895140263154315662

**californiagrown** · 03-05-2025, 10:05 AM

I have a chunk invested in CTRE, a old-folks home/healthcare REIT. Ive been in it for around 5 years now and its done well, dividend around 4.5%. This seems like a market sector that *should* be pretty trump proof as boomers aint getting younger or less in need of healthcare. What are potential pitfalls folks see in the senior healthcare REIT space?

**4matic** · 03-05-2025, 10:11 AM

Four year low WTI crude

**jono** · 03-05-2025, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

I have a chunk invested in CTRE, a old-folks home/healthcare REIT. Ive been in it for around 5 years now and its done well, dividend around 4.5%. This seems like a market sector that *should* be pretty trump proof as boomers aint getting younger or less in need of healthcare. What are potential pitfalls folks see in the senior healthcare REIT space?

Social Security and Medicare dependence? Some risks to those things include outright cuts but more likely typical manipulation of the "basket of goods" so that inflation can be underreported and benefits fall behind real inflation. Wealthier retirees' portfolio risks....

**LeeLau** · 03-05-2025, 10:21 AM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

I have a chunk invested in CTRE, a old-folks home/healthcare REIT. Ive been in it for around 5 years now and its done well, dividend around 4.5%. This seems like a market sector that *should* be pretty trump proof as boomers aint getting younger or less in need of healthcare. What are potential pitfalls folks see in the senior healthcare REIT space?

Bankruptcy

**jackstraw** · 03-05-2025, 10:40 AM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

Bankruptcy

I laft

**californiagrown** · 03-05-2025, 11:50 AM

LeeLau just crushing my posts with one-word responses haha.

**LeeLau** · 03-05-2025, 12:18 PM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

LeeLau just crushing my posts with one-word responses haha.

Sorry!

Very Canadian of me. Senior Healthcare communities are typically cash flow conscious and debt heavy. Quite a few have cut their dividends andor defaulted on debt in the past 5 years. In large part due to interest rates rising

**californiagrown** · 03-05-2025, 01:28 PM

^^^ i never said i didnt deserve it haha. swift, blunt feedback with some twang is appreciated.

**Harry** · 03-05-2025, 06:21 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

I still think stagflation is a possibility.

You posted this a month ago, and I am not sure why I missed it. But given the recent insanity I am now thinking that we are headed straight into a stagflation tar pit.

Dealing with high inflation and high unemployment will be difficult for people who actually understand the issues. And Trump does not know shit and he refuses to listen to those who do.

Stagflation here we come !

**4matic** · 03-05-2025, 07:26 PM

Stagflation more likely if dollar keeps falling at this rate. Down 5% from it's peak and 3% in a month. Especially if rates don't keep dropping.

**Cono Este** · 03-05-2025, 07:31 PM

Carry trades back on.

**yeahman** · 03-05-2025, 07:53 PM

Shit at this point stagflation is a best case scenario.

**The SnowShow** · 03-05-2025, 09:22 PM

How is stagflation best case scenario?!

**ötzi** · 03-05-2025, 09:49 PM

Well the other cases are worse.

**J. Barron DeJong** · 03-05-2025, 10:10 PM

Originally Posted by The SnowShow

How is stagflation best case scenario?!

Because it looks like there is a good chance we are headed for shrinkflation, an entirely new, and entirely self inflicted economic state. Stagnant growth with inflation is better than a shrinking economy combined with inflation.

**The SnowShow** · 03-05-2025, 10:51 PM

I’ve always thought of stagflation as worse case but yeah, shrinkflations worse. Thanks MAGA.

**bobz** · 03-06-2025, 12:27 AM

I’ve always thought of stagflation as worse case but yeah, shrinkflations worse. Thanks MAGA.

Hey, whatever it takes! I'm sure Trump will take full advantage of the economic disaster that by all indications is being engineered, he'll have the best advance information about the timing of the crash, and he'll make a killing on the subsequent massive bailout that he will call for afterwards. Increasing his fortunes, and those of a few others close to him, is now the sole objective of our government, which 70 million+ voters think is just swell, because he's a white guy, and after all, feathering one's own nest is what a Good Businessman does. And the Supremes & GOP Senators will remain on board as well (a few weak "I have concerns" notwithstanding). So yeah, not sure what flavor of fuckflation we're looking forward to here, but I'm not optimistic.