Is the stock market going to tank?

[liv2ski]

4matic: "Fixed annuity pays five percent plus now"

My wife has a couple of those and it appears there is a termination penalty forever. So not what I want. I had a bank account paying 5.25% in 2024, but now 4%.

[4matic]

Guarantee is a strong word. Corporate bonds are well into the fives with longer duration.

[bfree]

No such thing as 5% guaranteed right now. Short term treasuries are at about 4.3% and long term about 4.8%*. Anything yielding more than that is carrying some degree of default risk - the higher the yield, the higher the risk.
*be careful with the long durations, you will lose value if yields go up and you want to sell prior to duration/maturity. of course the downside to the short durations is that yields can decrease and you'll have to reinvest at lower rates (as you've experienced with no longer being able to find 5% savings accts).

[4matic]

That’s why I like HYS. Zero to five year short duration credit yielding almost seven and a half percent

[liv2ski]

What about these? Some strong/high distributions at this time. https://www.justetf.com/en/market-ov...ld-in-usd.html

[4matic]

Those are mostly world bonds. Sure, I think the dollar has likely made a high. But those are far from guaranteed. You have to dig in to credit quality, duration, country exposure, currency exposure.

[4matic]

I don’t get why you look at that junk list when you were looking for safety.

[Brock Landers]

What about these? Some strong/high distributions at this time. https://www.justetf.com/en/market-ov...ld-in-usd.html

If you want guaranteed then go for guaranteed. Money market paying 4 and change.

If you want risk…EMHC is a low cost exposure,solid yield, certainly risk but half the AUM is from highly rated issues (issue in dollars because that’s what oil is priced in). And it’ll move different than almost anything else you likely have in your account.

[liv2ski]

4matic: "I don’t get why you look at that junk list when you were looking for safety".

If I knew it all I would not ask questions. (rolls eyes)

[4matic]

ski;[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji639]][emoji640]matic: "I don’t get why you look at that junk list when you were looking for safety".

If I knew it all I would not ask questions. (rolls eyes)

It’s like saying I want a guarantee but what do you think about these pork belly futures..

[liv2ski]

I found 4.75% and that will work.

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[liv2ski]

I also found a UK bank at 7% but uncertain I can open an account outside of the country. Yes, I have a UK passport.

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[Brock Landers]

What’d you put it in at [emoji640].[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]. Seems like a nice yld. Have a plan if rates decrease (haha) if the new rate is sufficient (I’m assuming it’s a
Money market or something w little term).

If you COULD do the uk rate you’d lose % on the currency diff. Sleep easy.

[liv2ski]

Brock, I was thinking a good time to do the UK acct if possible, as a strong USD today and I am expecting it to weaken, as Drumps fuck up multiply?

[Brock Landers]

First, I wouldn’t bet my “safe, guaranteed” return on currency and political fucking ups. Might as well just buy us high yield. Currency is a bad risk-adjusted bet. Lots of vol per unit return.

I’d also argue much of what Trump wants to do is consistent with a lower dollar. Lower long end rates…lower dollar. Ukraine/Russia ends…lower dollar. More US manufacturing- only w a lower dollar. Rollback of govt “waste”- according to him- likely slippage in growth and lower dollar. Especially if Europe isn’t half bad. Less globalization- lower dollar (few different reasons).

[californiagrown]

Motherfuckingfuckfuck. I bought a bunch of Intel at the end of last year, couldnt stomach the negative news and reports of shitty product/managment towards the middle/end of january and sold it all. I gotta harden the fuck up and gut it out next time. Damnit!

[Mani_UT]

The cycle doesn’t call it capitulation for nothing.

[liv2ski]

Thinking of putting a sizable chunk of change in BINC. Tell me if I am crazy as this is not in my experience zone. Thx

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[californiagrown]

Thinking of putting a sizable chunk of change in BINC. Tell me if I am crazy as this is not in my experience zone. Thx Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

I cashed out a bunch of profits in january, and also the above mentioned INTC stock and put it in BINC instead of storing as cash. Not excited about any other stocks right now, so i figured why not?

But also, im somewhat blindsquirelling my way through this all.

[bfree]

BINC is fine, just be sure you understand you're not getting the extra yield over treasuries for free. There is more risk - it is loaded with international and junk bonds. In an economic downturn, this is going to lose some value. You need to decide what level of risk you need/want to take and accept what the market is offering from there - stop yield chasing simply because of some magic 5% number you desire.

[Brock Landers]

I cashed out a bunch of profits in january, and also the above mentioned INTC stock and put it in BINC instead of storing as cash. Not excited about any other stocks right now, so i figured why not?

But also, im somewhat blindsquirelling my way through this all.

BINC is a decent enough fund, great manager, but dont think of it as “instead of storing as cash”. For the extra 175+bps of return you’re getting over cash or a cash proxy, it’s got quite a bit more risk. It’s pretty diversified across rate risk, regional exposure, sub asset classes….but that extra return doesn’t come free.

That may be totally fine, but it isn’t cash or cash substitute.

[liv2ski]

You really think that if there is the risk of a recession, which I definitely believe in, that a bond fund is going to lose value as rates decrease? That doesn't make sense to me, but I don't know shit.

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[skaredshtles]

You really think that if there is the risk of a recession, which I definitely believe in, that a bond fund is going to lose value as rates decrease? That doesn't make sense to me, but I don't know shit.

Its going to lose value as the marginal companies go tits-up and default on the bonds.

[bfree]

You really think that if there is the risk of a recession, which I definitely believe in, that a bond fund is going to lose value as rates decrease? That doesn't make sense to me, but I don't know shit.

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Not because of rates decreasing, but because its holdings will stop paying the coupons. Its top two holdings appear to be mortgage backed securities and corporate junk bonds. Recession = people stop paying their mortgages and risky companies go belly-up.

[4matic]

BINC is a decent enough fund, great manager, but dont think of it as “instead of storing as cash”. For the extra 175+bps of return you’re getting over cash or a cash proxy, it’s got quite a bit more risk. It’s pretty diversified across rate risk, regional exposure, sub asset classes….but that extra return doesn’t come free.

That may be totally fine, but it isn’t cash or cash substitute.

Yes. Expounding on this is how safe do you think the yield is? In BINC I’d say pretty safe. It has an overall A- credit rating compared to the category at BBB+.

A lot of people say don’t own bond funds because of duration and (constant) maturity risk. But, that’s why I own bond funds. I want a steady duration and maturity profile because I can predict yield for a longer time frame.

Blackrock, like Pimco, being so big they are first in line for the best offerings and provide an extra measure of safety and liquidity.