Real Estate Crash thread

[neckdeep]

When the say it can't get much worse, that's when it usually starts to prove them wrong and it gets much worse.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housi...221906929.html

Half of all vacation/second homes in the country are owned by baby boomers. Collectively, boomers are sitting on appx. 35,000,000 primary residences.


These will be fed back into the market at an increasingly fast pace because the boomers are starting to drop dead.

[J. Barron DeJong]

When the say it can't get much worse, that's when it usually starts to prove them wrong and it gets much worse.

The whole way through the collapse of the housing bubble and the Great Recession the chief economist for the association of realtors was just cheerleading.

[ColMan]

https://www.outsideonline.com/advent...-mountain-town

Outside just named Laramie the most affordable mountain town in the west. What they forgot to mention though is the wind. Not sure if locals need to worry about it blowing up for that one reason alone.

[goldenboy]

Half of all vacation/second homes in the country are owned by baby boomers. Collectively, boomers are sitting on appx. 35,000,000 primary residences.


These will be fed back into the market at an increasingly fast pace because the boomers are starting to drop dead.

That's the one thing that I think might finally start getting us out of this massive inventory shortage. That said, Boomers are expected to live longer and want to age in place. Plus they have the wealth to do it. It will take a while, in my opinion.

[Kevo]

On the plus side, the baby boomers are starting to drop like flies. The boomers are sitting on something like 35,000,000 primary residences and they also own close to 55% of all the vacation homes/second residences in the country.

Boomer vacation homes aren't likely to magically appear as inventory to prospective buyers. Their kids will inherit the homes. Even if those kids sell the houses, the wealth from those house sales will find its way into other real estate markets and other asset classes.

There are 30 million more Americans today compared to 2008. I don't expect the demand for vacation homes to dry up, especially as the children of well off baby boomers inherit huge amounts of wealth. There are only so many desirable places, and people spend inherited money with wanton abandon.

Also, a very significant number of my millenial friends in the Denver area own vacation homes. Most of them didn't have help from their parents when they bought second home in a CO ski town. I also know multiple millennials in the NYC area with vacation homes in NE/NY ski towns. There seems to be plenty of demand from millennials to buy vacation homes.

[Ted Striker]

There seems to be plenty of demand from millennials to buy vacation homes.

And for Airbnbs.

[AdironRider]

https://www.outsideonline.com/advent...-mountain-town

Outside just named Laramie the most affordable mountain town in the west. What they forgot to mention though is the wind. Not sure if locals need to worry about it blowing up for that one reason alone.

[Harry]

Half of all vacation/second homes in the country are owned by baby boomers. Collectively, boomers are sitting on appx. 35,000,000 primary residences.


These will be fed back into the market at an increasingly fast pace because the boomers are starting to drop dead.

I think Benny posted that exact fact in this thread 15 years ago. Still true.

[skaredshtles]

https://www.outsideonline.com/advent...-mountain-town

Outside just named Laramie the most affordable mountain town in the west. What they forgot to mention though is the wind. Not sure if locals need to worry about it blowing up for that one reason alone.

We had some friends (originally from MI) who had lived most of their adult lives in Austin, TX and the Santa Cruz area of CA, and the wife was raving about how much she loved Laramie when they did a college visit with their HS daughter and how she wanted to move there.

I said, "It wasn't windy when you visited, was it?"

She said no, and I suggested she re-visit in January before moving there.

[Foggy_Goggles]

You're not wrong...but Livingston, MT.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[Toadman]

That's the one thing that I think might finally start getting us out of this massive inventory shortage. That said, Boomers are expected to live longer and want to age in place. Plus they have the wealth to do it. It will take a while, in my opinion.

I would tend to agree with this. Sure, the Boomer men will die off but the Boomer women will still be around living in those homes for another decade plus after their spouses have kicked the bucket. It will be a slow trickle at best and not enough quantity in any given zip code to make a significant impact. Just my 2.7 cents (due to inflation).

[yeahman]

Outside Magazine won't be happy until the last good mountain town is ruined.

[Bronco]

You're not wrong...but Livingston, MT.

I helped a buddy put tyvek over the sheathing of his new house he built SW of Livingston on the Wineglass hill one Saturday. By the end of the day, I felt like I'd ridden a motorcycle with no windshield and no helmet all day. It was traumatizing to be on a ladder and afraid it would blow over with me on it. I felt bad for his two boys who would grow up there. If it was windy, I don't see how they would be able to ride a bike or shoot hoops.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

I helped a buddy put tyvek over the sheathing of his new house he built SW of Livingston on the Wineglass hill one Saturday. By the end of the day, I felt like I'd ridden a motorcycle with no windshield and no helmet all day. It was traumatizing to be on a ladder and afraid it would blow over with me on it. I felt bad for his two boys who would grow up there. If it was windy, I don't see how they would be able to ride a bike or shoot hoops.

We see kind of a lot of listings up there given that it's not that many properties and I think it's almost entirely people sick of getting sand blasted.

[goldenboy]

Fairplay would like to enter the chat.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Seriously, not even close. Not even places like Casper can compare. Front Range/East Slope/Whatever people in MT call it, is next level.

Somebody find a list of the windiest towns in the US.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[dunfree]

Seriously, not even close. Not even places like Casper can compare. Front Range/East Slope/Whatever people in MT call it, is next level.

Somebody find a list of the windiest towns in the US.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

have you never spent any fucking time in the eastern parts of Montana, Wyoming, or either of the Dakotas? Because that shits worse.

Back to looking down on Livingston old try hard in vans

[mcphee]

1. Chicago

[dunfree]

1. Chicago

the nickname came from them being bullshitters

[californiagrown]

Pretty sure kansas and oklahoma have worse wind.

It's just not as consistent... https://wmo.asu.edu/content/tornado-...-doppler-radar

[Foggy_Goggles]

Dude man, that what I'm talking about. Can't I even say it's windy in MT without you coming at me?

If it makes your day, I'm glad I can help. Does it make it better or worse that like got good friends that like in Valier, Choteau and Conrad?



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[lifelinksplit]

I grew up around Chicago, my wife grew up in Cheyenne and we spent a bunch of time in Livingston and almost moved there. Also did some building in Livingston. Truss day and tyvek(fuck that use zip systems) are sporty.

Also the whole people will leave when they experience "enter shitty weather event". These people have the means to not have to be exposed to said weather events or just bounce to one of their other homes in a nicer climate.

Not that bumfuck Montana market matters but listings have been dropping fairly consistently here.

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[Foggy_Goggles]

If wind won't drive you crazy the sound of flapping Tyvek will. They could use that as torture.

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[dunfree]

Dude man, that what I'm talking about. Can't I even say it's windy in MT without you coming at me?

If it makes your day, I'm glad I can help. Does it make it better or worse that like got good friends that like in Valier, Choteau and Conrad?



Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

you stupid fuck, the point was Livingston is pretty fucking nice compared to the eastern 2/3 of Montana and better than 99% of the country and you sound like a Chardonnay drinking asshole you pretend to disdain saying it isn’t

[goldenboy]

Seriously, not even close. Not even places like Casper can compare. Front Range/East Slope/Whatever people in MT call it, is next level.

Somebody find a list of the windiest towns in the US.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

Yeah, you're right, Livingston is windier than Fairplay, but not by much.
https://weatherspark.com/y/3365/Aver...%20per%20hour.

https://weatherspark.com/y/2904/Aver...tes-Year-Round