Real Estate Crash thread

[skaredshtles]

Hard to tell and depends on where. They are building so many apartments in the Gallatin Valley I cannot help but wonder where all the people will park or what roads they will drive on when the entire town gridlocks.

Sounds like an excellent opportunity to design and implement a comprehensive public transit system!

[RoooR]

Interesting. But probably not enough. Do they have taxes?

Here it’s 14%
That’s a lot if your renting $5k or 8k a week, as many homes are.
Oddly. The tax is paid by the renters. It would be better if it came out of the landlord side.

How exactly can you design a tax that is only paid by the supplier and not the consumer? Been a while since I took econ, but my understanding is that tax incidence is based on the elasticity of the curves and not by anything specific the state can do.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Sweet talking points Phish!

Buy now when it's less affordable because when it gets more affordable there will be more demand which will make it less affordable. The real estate industry survives on transaction volume so they have a slide deck for everything.

What's the company line for those looking to sell? Hold out until interest rates drop such that your house is more affordable so you can raise your price and get more offers?

Around here I'm seeing a lot more homes on the market. I think it is primarily second home owners realizing that the top has passed and looking to get out. Many/most are not competitively priced. Demographically speaking, any one that can is looking to get the fuck outta the cities (Denver). But some people are getting called back to the office.

The market is not driven by those getting a conventional low down mortgage for their primary residence. An policy wise, I don't see the Fed lowering interest rates to support the residential housing market. We are so far away from giving a fuck about that. I think the crash showed the financial institutions that they are untouchable.

[Core Shot]

How exactly can you design a tax that is only paid by the supplier and not the consumer? Been a while since I took econ, but my understanding is that tax incidence is based on the elasticity of the curves and not by anything specific the state can do.

It’s the same. Gross price will go up to accommodate the tax on the landlord. But the STR renter is thinking this is the price. Then they get whacked 14%.

Flip side. If the landlord pays it becomes a tax deduction so the state makes less money on their STR tax.

[J. Barron DeJong]

How exactly can you design a tax that is only paid by the supplier and not the consumer? Been a while since I took econ, but my understanding is that tax incidence is based on the elasticity of the curves and not by anything specific the state can do.

I was thinking the same thing.

But… I wonder if having an annual STR tax on the property value, rather than a percentage of the rental income brought in would discourage people from investing in STR’s in the first place? (Not a tax incidence expert.)

Maybe they should just auction off the desired number of STR licenses to the highest bidders instead.

[Core Shot]

Bought a second home with an adu. Fucking 7.125 % mortgage. If that don’t slow things down nothing will.

[Ted Striker]

...looking at home prices in the area and we're noticing significant price drops across the board and homes sitting for weeks/months. Is this an indicator of the tide starting to turn or is it simply that it's September, which is typically not that great of a time to sell anyway?

Since asking price is just Smith saying "look at what the Jonses got, and our place is way nicer!" they'll always overshoot the true market value. This is probably that moment for that market.

In my town, interest rates have split the market between those who need to borrow, and those who don't. People coming in hot with cash are still scooping up stuff that's frankly not worth what they're paying, but mid-priced stuff is tight because owners are sitting on what are now crazy good mortgages.

[Red7]

Sweet talking points Phish!

Buy now when it's less affordable because when it gets more affordable there will be more demand which will make it less affordable. The real estate industry survives on transaction volume so they have a slide deck for everything.

Yeah, the RE industry reminds me a lot of the CNBC headlines....the stock market is up 200 points due to the CPI data. Then an hour later the same headline reads....the stock market is down 300 points due to the (same) CPI data. Always an explanation even when it does a complete 180. I think 2024 gets interesting in most sectors, including Real Estate.

From 2003 to 2023:

Cost of used cars up 331%
Cost of new cars up 221%
Avg cost of home up $311%
Household income up ONLY 61%

Something's gotta break. Interestingly enough, used car prices dropped more this past month than it had in the past 10 years combined. Hold out if you're car (and probably home in many areas) shopping. Like 2008, things can turn pretty quickly and start to snowball.

[californiagrown]

but mid-priced stuff is tight because owners are sitting on what are now crazy good mortgages.

As someone with a super low rate on my mortgage, and a reflexively frugal nature i dont see a reason why i would ever sell the place. Fix it up, yeah sure, but if i was to buy my home right now i would be paying almost double my current mortgage. If i could come up with cash to buy a nicer home i would just keep my current place and rent it out. Basically, unless i am forced out of my current house it is never going up for sale again. And i think a lot of folks are in that boat (people who bought or refied to super low rates).

[fastfred]

County Commissioners and Developers: "Infrastructure? Never heard of him, what's his last name?"

Fucking highlarious

Just driven indiana on the front range poster child for stupid development andno road

[Dantheman]

As someone with a super low rate on my mortgage, and a reflexively frugal nature i dont see a reason why i would ever sell the place. Fix it up, yeah sure, but if i was to buy my home right now i would be paying almost double my current mortgage. If i could come up with cash to buy a nicer home i would just keep my current place and rent it out. Basically, unless i am forced out of my current house it is never going up for sale again. And i think a lot of folks are in that boat (people who bought or refied to super low rates).

Same. Be house-poor and reset the payoff clock? NFW. Though, 8-10 years from now when the kid has moved out and the dog is dead selling the house and paying cash for a 2-bd condo sounds tempting.

[ötzi]

Man you're killing that dog off already??

[skaredshtles]

Same. Be house-poor and reset the payoff clock? NFW. Though, 8-10 years from now when the kid has moved out and the dog is dead selling the house and paying cash for a 2-bd condo sounds tempting.

WWCD. Bonus: condo won't have a lawn to mow.

[Dantheman]

Man you're killing that dog off already??

LOL, no, I love him to death but I have no plans for another one and the stark reality is that there's a >90% chance he'll be in doggie heaven 10 years from now.

WWCD. Bonus: condo won't have a lawn to mow.

Or snow to shovel. HOA dues, but with most covering water/sewer/trash I'm close to breaking even on that as it is. Shit, I'm tempted to pitch the idea to the wife today.

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
Or snow to shovel. HOA dues, but with most covering water/sewer/trash I'm close to breaking even on that as it is. Shit, I'm tempted to pitch the idea to the wife today.

[4matic]

There are some good buys out there right now. Very few people are selling

Doesn’t really make sense.

1. A good buy vs what? A year ago? Three years ago?

2. How much new construction is going on? If new home sales stall existing prices are going to fall more.

I remember in 2013 when I was selling a house and the local realtor said sales can stop on a dime. You never know. With all the new rental units coming on line and a good chance rents soften the rent vs buy calculation is going to swing back to rent.

[4matic]

The XHB etf is getting smashed. If rates don’t cool off soon the home building stocks are going to crater.

[neckdeep]

County Commissioners and Developers: "Infrastructure? Never heard of him, what's his last name?"

Teton county, ID might be the poster child for this. New buildings for government offices, yes! Upgrading roads and fixing Idaho's worst waste water system? Uh......maybe we'll get to that later....

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Doesn’t really make sense.

1. A good buy vs what? A year ago? Three years ago?

2. How much new construction is going on? If new home sales stall existing prices are going to fall more.

I remember in 2013 when I was selling a house and the local realtor said sales can stop on a dime. You never know. With all the new rental units coming on line and a good chance rents soften the rent vs buy calculation is going to swing back to rent.

Good buys as in unique properties that are priced right and don't have 15+ offers and go to pending in 48 hours or less.

There isn't a bunch of new home inventory. Inventory in general is still well behind demand. I'd love to be wrong, but if inflation continues to cool and we get anywhere close to 5% by next spring......get an agent that can write their offers fast because it's gonna be back to the 20/21 craziness.

In the meantime values will still go up in desirable areas and there is a somewhat intangible value in being able to slow your roll a bit and buy something at a "normal" pace without having to waive every contingency and put in an offer 30 minutes after a place gets listed.

[concretejungle]

Sounds like an excellent opportunity to design and implement a comprehensive public transit system!

I would take that in a heart beat but honestly I'd just take a safe way to ride my bike to work.

[rideit]

Teton county, ID might be the poster child for this. New buildings for government offices, yes! Upgrading roads and fixing Idaho's worst waste water system? Uh......maybe we'll get to that later....

10,000 individual septic systems, what could possibly go wrong?

[fastfred]

Good buys as in unique properties that are priced right and don't have 15+ offers and go to pending in 48 hours or less.

There isn't a bunch of new home inventory. Inventory in general is still well behind demand. I'd love to be wrong, but if inflation continues to cool and we get anywhere close to 5% by next spring......get an agent that can write their offers fast because it's gonna be back to the 20/21 craziness.

In the meantime values will still go up in desirable areas and there is a somewhat intangible value in being able to slow your roll a bit and buy something at a "normal" pace without having to waive every contingency and put in an offer 30 minutes after a place gets listed.

You suck

I don't want to agree with what you wrote but I know deep down there is an 80% chance you are spot on.

[spanky]

10,000 individual septic systems, what could possibly go wrong?

Pfft. That’s a drop in the bucket…

“About 74 percent of Suffolk County’s 1.5 million residents utilize cesspools.”

https://www.longislandadvance.net/st...-systems,88061

This, in a land where 100% of the population’s water supply is from ground water.

[goldenboy]

It's a crazy market right now so its all a guess, but by and large I'd agree with whiteroom. If rates drop much (and I think they will), it'll be gasoline on what is right now a little campfire. 20/21 again. Yeah, I know, dirt pimps sticking together or something, but that's what I see.

We need so much more inventory and nothing of any note is being built in my area.

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[4matic]

It's a crazy market right now so its all a guess, but by and large I'd agree with whiteroom. If rates drop much (and I think they will), it'll be gasoline on what is right now a little campfire. 20/21 again. Yeah, I know, dirt pimps sticking together or something, but that's what I see.

We need so much more inventory and nothing of any note is being built in my area.

Rates went down and prices declined for 5 years after gfc. Inventory for who? Shuffling chairs on the titanic? Here's an analysis of what I think awaits:

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/su...housing-demand

"With additional increases in headship rates unlikely, population growth will retake its historical role as the main driver of household growth. But population growth has slowed to a near standstill, and it remains unclear when and if it will fully recover. So, although we haven’t felt it yet because of the jump in headship rates and the fact that some of the decline in population growth has been fewer births (which don’t affect household growth), the record low population growth levels will soon be reflected in lower levels of household growth. And these lower levels could be around for a while.

Over the long term, less population growth could also mean future household growth will continue to depend more on driving factors that are less stable and predictable, such as immigration and headship rates and the factors that support them, including changes in incomes and housing affordability. Given that household growth is the largest source of new housing demand, the impact on markets could be significant."