Ukraine

[Benny Profane]

Lovely how Pelosi, who probably has a driver and hasn't pumped gas for, like, ever, and our TGR priveleged set calling for higher gas prices. Anything to fuck the working class.

[toast2266]

Wife is a teacher. She has a student (middle school age) with a Ukranian mother and Russian father. Still has family in Ukraine, some of whom have died in the fighting. And if that wasn't shitty and complicated enough, apparently random strangers have been messaging her on social media because of her Russian last name, basically telling her that she should die at the hands of a Ukranian.

People are shitty.

[summit]

NATO can take one of two strategies:

1. Overt political/economic support and covert military support: sanctions, aid, intel and stuff we won't hear about. Best case, Putin backs down, but since that doesn't appear to be the case, next best case is Putin's own people take him out during the extended timeframe and devastating cost to subdue Ukraine. Failing that, this might turn into pyrrhic victory for Russia in conquering Ukraine while NATO supports an Ukrainian insurgency until a drained Russia withdraws, a less acceptable NATO victory. The risk is that Ukraine surrenders and the insurgency fails, emboldening Russia and China to more militaristic expansion.

2. Military interventionism, I outlined many pages ago that this requires both Russia and NATO to engage in highly provocative actions without retaliation or at least without escalation. The best case hope is that Putin blinks before NATO. Fighting Russia then starting to defeat them militarily is a given that is also not really an option: Putin will open up the canned sunshine once he starts losing to NATO, which is of course the risk of going toe to toe with the Ruskies on their border.

[AK47bp]

Something about white people in puffy jackets being attacked really gets people emotional around here.



No fly zone isn’t the silver bullet here anyway so why further escalate this war and potentially kill/displace hundreds of thousands more? This war isn’t even a week old and there are like 8,000 dead already.

Does a no fly zone mean NATO can shoot down missiles fired from the ground? Or just aircraft.


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[oldnew_guy]

Certainly didn't stop Saddam from doing all sorts of nasty shit.

[MultiVerse]

Wife is a teacher. She has a student (middle school age) with a Ukranian mother and Russian father. Still has family in Ukraine, some of whom have died in the fighting. And if that wasn't shitty and complicated enough, apparently random strangers have been messaging her on social media because of her Russian last name, basically telling her that she should die at the hands of a Ukranian.

People are shitty.

Many Ukrainians and Ukrainian soldiers opposing Putin's war are ethnic Russians.

Putin is destroying two countries at once. We shouldn't wish Russians harm. We should wish them home.

[riser4]

toe to toe with the Rooskies

Fify

[Benny Profane]

Something about white people in puffy jackets being attacked really gets people emotional around here.



No fly zone isn’t the silver bullet here anyway so why further escalate this war and potentially kill/displace hundreds of thousands more? This war isn’t even a week old and there are like 8,000 dead already.

Does a no fly zone mean NATO can shoot down missiles fired from the ground? Or just aircraft.


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It means we can destroy surface to air missle bases in Russia. It's actually the first thing we should do, if that's what the warmongers want.

[ex-powderbroker]

Putin is destroying two countries at once. We shouldn't wish Russians harm. We should wish them home.

yes, and i wish biden’s speech differentiated between putin and the people.

[MultiVerse]

Major buyers of Russian oil struggle with bank guarantees:

- Russian oil importers cannot open letters of credit
- Ship owners refuse to load in Russia
- Shipping rates for Russia jump


According to JP Morgan refineries are refusing to buy, "almost 70% of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers. .. nine cargoes of 100 thousand tons each for March loading failed to find buyers on Wednesday .. Russian benchmark Urals oil is being offered at a record $20 discount to international benchmark, with no bids.”

[S_jenks]

And NOT having a no-fly zone has prevented said "further escalation?" Literally every soft measure that's been approached so far has lead to ...wait for it... further escalation.

Don't forget who we're dealing with here, folks. It was Vladimir Lenin that famously said "You probe with bayonets. If you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw."

Putin will ONLY respond to steel. He's looking for mush, hoping he can meet his goals here. What's it gonna be? I think no-fly zone and shoot all intruders down. Not that hard a concept really. Would WE stand for anything less if a foreign country was invading the US?

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What the fuck? At what point did I ever claim that the lack of a no fly zone has "prevented" further escalation? Of course the war is escalating between Ukraine and Russia!

But my point is that this is a situation where the Western Powers need to tread VERY carefully. The idea that NATO can simply slap down a no-fly-zone over Ukraine and that it WON'T invite more brinkmanship from Putin/Russia is absurd. It very likely would be challenged by them, and any direct engagement between these two nuclear powers has potential to spiral out of control really quickly.

I know that action needs to be taken against Putin and his Russian cronies, but rushing into this with a no-fly-zone isn't the right card to play right now for anybody. Sadly, that means for the moment Ukraine is technically fighting this war solo. In the meantime, we're forced to hope they can get enough financial/logistical/supply help to hold the lines.

[dunfree]

Wife is a teacher. She has a student (middle school age) with a Ukranian mother and Russian father. Still has family in Ukraine, some of whom have died in the fighting. And if that wasn't shitty and complicated enough, apparently random strangers have been messaging her on social media because of her Russian last name, basically telling her that she should die at the hands of a Ukranian.

People are shitty.

Tell them they are the usa, they should be free and prosper, and fuck those dumbfucks

[MTT]

My god
My Uber app just solicited me for a donation to help the Ukrainians

And an email. Is this just a bit much?
The corporate machines going full throttle

[MontuckyFried]

Sadly, that means for the moment Ukraine is technically fighting this war solo.

And that right there is the saddest part of all of this. Our friends over there getting killed and the whole world be like "Uhh... good luck, lil buddy."

Shows that everybody really IS scared of Russia. I say fuck Putin.

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[Adolf Allerbush]

No fly zone isn’t the silver bullet here anyway...

They might need to do a no fly zone at some point, but as I understand it, just setting up a no fly zone requires that NATO forces destroy some Russian military equipment (SAMS, radar, etc.)...so just setting up the no fly zone would be an act of aggression and probably kill some Russians, right?

[MontuckyFried]

If anybody is concerned about WW3, the BIG difference between now and 80 years ago is how it's literally the ENTIRE world (except maybe Iran and N Korea) against one. NOBODY is backing up Putin on this one. That should bring at least some encouragement. I think internet access has helped worldwide communication more than words can express. Made Putin look like nothing but a complete asshole.

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[MultiVerse]

They might need to do a no fly zone at some point, but as I understand it, just setting up a no fly zone requires that NATO forces destroy some Russian military equipment (SAMS, radar, etc.)...so just setting up the no fly zone would be an act of aggression and probably kill some Russians, right?

A no fly zone would be seen by the Russians as an act of war.

[MontuckyFried]

They might need to do a no fly zone at some point, but as I understand it, just setting up a no fly zone requires that NATO forces destroy some Russian military equipment (SAMS, radar, etc.)...so just setting up the no fly zone would be an act of aggression and probably kill some Russians, right?

A no fly zone would be seen by the Russians as an act of war.

Oh, and, I dunno... invading Ukraine ISN'T an "Act of War?" They shot first. They continue their siege. Why is everyone so afraid? At least the Ukrainian people have massive brass balls. Kick ass.

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[SumJongGuy]

A no fly zone would be seen by the Russians as an act of war.

[Adolf Allerbush]

A no fly zone would be seen by the Russians as an act of war.

Right, because it requires that we blow some of their shit up. I think MF and others don't really get that point. It's not merely stating that the area over Ukraine is a no fly zone now.

[SumJongGuy]

If anybody is concerned about WW3, the BIG difference between now and 80 years ago is how it's literally the ENTIRE world (except maybe Iran and N Korea) against one. NOBODY is backing up Putin on this one. That should bring at least some encouragement. I think internet access has helped worldwide communication more than words can express. Made Putin look like nothing but a complete asshole.

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cough cough China cough cough..

[MultiVerse]

Oh, and, I dunno... invading Ukraine ISN'T an "Act of War?" They shot first. They continue their siege. Why is everyone so afraid? At least the Ukrainian people have massive brass balls. Kick ass.

Then stop calling it a no fly zone. When both sides have fighter jets and surface to air missiles it’s just war.

[skaredshtles]

Oh, and, I dunno... invading Ukraine ISN'T an "Act of War?" They shot first. They continue their siege. Why is everyone so afraid?

Would you be willing to send your kids into that fight?

[Benny Profane]

And that right there is the saddest part of all of this. Our friends over there getting killed and the whole world be like "Uhh... good luck, lil buddy."

Shows that everybody really IS scared of Russia. I say fuck Putin.

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Oh please. There's a shitload of arms and a lot of bodies heading to Ukraine right now.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Twitter thread on what a ‘no-fly zone’ would mean in practice:

https://mobile.twitter.com/joshtpm/s...38221898657798

Neither he, nor I, am a military expert, so take it for what you will, but it makes sense to me.