Ukraine

[MagnificentUnicorn]

No, it's what your mom asks me right before we get to it.

No need to continue trying to win today's douchebag contest--you've got the title sewn up today, and most other days as well.

Radical idea: post something worthwhile, for once. Ready...go.

Still waiting for you to post something worthwhile. I think based on feedback here you’ve been king douchebag for a while.

It’s nice that you come to Benny’s defense thought, you’re a charming couple


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[Tri-Ungulate]

Why Russia Will Lose - A fascinating analysis

"Why Russia will lose this war?

Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?

I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals"

I hope that analysis is correct, but I've also noted other well-reasoned analyses that are far more pessimistic.

I found this thread instructive:
https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1498126277416566787

this one was similarly instructive albeit depressing:
https://twitter.com/defencewithac/st...99000733949963

...but this one is a bit more hopeful:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/st...81975022940167

Not sure about the blogger's individual credentials, but they seem well-informed and willing to take other views into account, including those they disagree with.

The bazaarofwar blogger actually addresses the kamilkazani thesis here:
https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/stat...C-mfmdqcspAAAA

[highangle]

Still haven't seen Benny or Cono apologize for spreading bullshit...but at least Benny recognizes that Ukraine has support from the west.

His check from Russia Russia Russia bounced bounced bounced.

[ötzi]

It wouldn't even be enough to cast one of his giant testicles.

Goddammit this place needs a "like" button.

[dunfree]

I hope that analysis is correct, but I've also noted other well-reasoned analyses that are far more pessimistic.

I found this thread instructive:
https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1498126277416566787

this one was similarly instructive albeit depressing:
https://twitter.com/defencewithac/st...99000733949963

...but this one is a bit more hopeful:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/st...81975022940167

Not sure about the blogger's individual credentials, but they seem well-informed and willing to take other views into account, including those they disagree with.

The bazaarofwar blogger actually addresses the kamilkazani thesis here:
https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/stat...C-mfmdqcspAAAA

It’s definitely a fluid thing, and the guy summit linked isn’t unbiased (he was detained in Moscow where he was based for protesting in 2020), but by my amateur knowledge he seems to have an understanding of Russian history that is uncommon - in a good(revelatory) way. He’s got a thread about all the suspicious military deaths, because military competence is a threat. Wonder if shiogu’s daughter in Dubai is scared?

[Adolf Allerbush]

There's a lot of people obsessed about my dick here.

To be fair, you were talking about the bell curve of your micropenis, so you sort of brought it on yourself.

[dunfree]

This isn’t sustainable- on either side - but seems revelatory in the asymmetry
https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons...80541468495878
Russian apc telling people to come out calmly and the guy calmly walks out with an rpg and kills it


I’m glad Medicare could pay for bennys penile implant

[highangle]

It wouldn't even be enough to cast one of his giant testicles.

You're right. I was wrong.

[abraham]

This isn’t sustainable- on either side - but seems revelatory in the asymmetry
https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons...80541468495878
Russian apc telling people to come out calmly and the guy calmly walks out with an rpg and kills it


I’m glad Medicare could pay for bennys penile implant

I saw that earlier, down below there's a reference to Grozny 1.0 and Grozny 2.0. This article from 2000 has been floating around recently.

I don't understand why it seems like Russia didn't learn much from it's involvement in Syria but it's unfortunately still early. And of course there's lots I don't understand.

[summit]

Thanks for those links Tri Ungulate. I am by no means treating the analysis I posted as gospel, but I found it interesting and hopeful.

There is so much fog of war here for us average folks even with the unprecedented level of OSINT. Wouldn't it be interesting to be a fly on the wall at Pentagon briefings?

While I cannot see an endgame where Putin comes out ahead, I would like to think there are possible better outcomes than, "Kyiv leveled, massive death, Ukraine turns into bloody multiyear guerilla conflict."

[Dexter Rutecki]

Still waiting for you to post something worthwhile. I think based on feedback here you’ve been king douchebag for a while.

It’s nice that you come to Benny’s defense thought, you’re a charming couple


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Yeah, you need to learn to read--zero defense of Benny's idiocy here. Dumb motherfucker. Stray to close to the wrong munitions at some point, or fetal oxygen deprivation? No need to respond...

[Cono Este]

Thanks for those links Tri Ungulate. I am by no means treating the analysis I posted as gospel, but I found it interesting and hopeful.

There is so much fog of war here for us average folks even with the unprecedented level of OSINT. Wouldn't it be interesting to be a fly on the wall at Pentagon briefings?

While I cannot see an endgame where Putin comes out ahead, I would like to think there are possible better outcomes than, "Kyiv leveled, massive death, Ukraine turns into bloody multiyear guerilla conflict."

It’s been less than a week, and I feel it will be a never ending battle unless he settles on stopping with the eastern Ukraine. But that would mean years of ongoing fighting with the west, and we would eventually send them advanced weapons and drones. So he’s going to take it all, and that will be a long fight with the same chance of NATO getting involved more deeply at some point. Shit, could be years of fighting.


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[CHAIR_97]

Attachment 407800 Near Attitash, New Hampshire


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https://linktr.ee/skitownallstars

Get ur Putin skis in jeans merch


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[ticketchecker]

Interview with Fiona Hill here https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...there-00012340


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[rideit]

It’s been less than a week, and I feel it will be a never ending battle unless he settles on stopping with the eastern Ukraine. But that would mean years of ongoing fighting with the west, and we would eventually send them advanced weapons and drones. So he’s going to take it all, and that will be a long fight with the same chance of NATO getting involved more deeply at some point. Shit, could be years of fighting.


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Unless, of course, all of Putin’s oligarchs demand it stop. I know that sounds Pollyanna-ish, but don’t underestimate the capabilities of an entire ruling class that just lost billions overnight.
And a population that just lost all of their savings as well.

[Tri-Ungulate]

Thanks for those links Tri Ungulate. I am by no means treating the analysis I posted as gospel, but I found it interesting and hopeful.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I wasn't impugning your link, and as I mentioned I hope it's correct. I'm just another foreign policy amateur trying to make sense of what the hell is going on.

This is a good article written in January that seems to provide excellent analysis of possible outcomes, as well as possible motives and goals.

The most likely ground offensive option is that the Russian military would focus on destroying Ukrainian military units east of the Dnieper River, inflicting casualties, taking prisoners of war, destroying military equipment, and degrading defense capabilities. This could include a planned withdrawal — a punitive raid —possibly after one or two weeks. It could also involve occupying terrain outside Kyiv and threatening the capital unless Russia’s demands are met. Such an operation would more closely resemble a more aggressive version of Russia’s war in Georgia in 2008 than its annexation of Crimea. By inflicting heavy losses on the Ukrainian military, taking prisoners of war, and degrading Kyiv’s defense capabilities, Russia could potentially alter Zelensky’s incentive structure sufficiently to induce painful concessions.

It's written by a guy who seems to know his shit, as a PhD candidate in war studies and former grunt. He also has a good Twitter feed that provides a matter-of-fact narrative of observations.

[nortonwhis]

Why Russia Will Lose - A fascinating analysis

"Why Russia will lose this war?

Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?

I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals"

that was an interesting read, thanks

[ex-powderbroker]

Here's an article that supposedly leaked - to have been published on the quick capture of Kyiv. Hit that translate button:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226...775162336.html

[dan_pdx]

It’s been less than a week, and I feel it will be a never ending battle unless he settles on stopping with the eastern Ukraine. But that would mean years of ongoing fighting with the west, and we would eventually send them advanced weapons and drones. So he’s going to take it all, and that will be a long fight with the same chance of NATO getting involved more deeply at some point. Shit, could be years of fighting.


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Can Putin afford years of fighting given the sanctions that are in place?

[rideit]

Here's an article that supposedly leaked - to have been published on the quick capture of Kyiv. Hit that translate button:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226...775162336.html

Where is the translate button?

[SumJongGuy]

Where is the translate button?

End of Benny's dick..

[Cono Este]

I wish these talking heads would stop talking about how the Russians have failed in 4 days. 4 days? These fuckers are in it for the long haul.


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[frorider]

Interview with Fiona Hill here https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...there-00012340

I respect her background on Putin but she gets some things wrong or incomplete (perhaps due to interview editing?).

Her thesis that wartime leaders like Churchill become irrelevant after the war is overlooking examples like Eisenhower. On a related note, while Putin has used war as a ratings and power boost, she says nothing about how effectively Putin has used Christian nationalism in league with ROC to accomplish those goals. She posits that near constant war is his only method for power maintenance and consolidation.

And her comments about his willingness to use Nukes are absurd. Yes we know about his use of nasty poisons, but to use that as evidence he’d subject Russia to nuclear MAD is plain dumb. Putin’s use of poisonings is an example of the opposite. It’s about as ‘surgical’ a strike as you can imagine.

[Cono Este]

Lots of woods surrounding the entrances to the city.

Fucking Stalingrad part 2.


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[ötzi]

Where is the translate button?

I dunno about that but if you go to translate.google.com and paste the url in the left box it will give a you a url to a translated version in the right box. If it doesn't work check the "translate from" and "translate to" buttons above the boxes