To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[LongShortLong]

That was EXACTLY my point with Delta Viral loads...YES we shed them for less time, but it seems that during that "less time" we infect with nearly the same viral load and non vaxxed. Yes vaxxed less sick, but round and round she goes.

I'll take a shot at this. The short answer is Zeno's paradox, known by ancient Greeks. Basically, if every generation (infection, incubation, recovery) of Covid results in the next generation being smaller, eventually Covid dies out. And, most of us never get an infection. You can see this in recent extinction of many species on Earth. They kept reproducing "round and round," but didn't reproduce enough and became extinct.

We don't technically know the answer for Covid yet, but for most other diseases we vaccinate against, those diseases die out. We occasionally get small outbreaks due to foreign reintroductions, but those too die out. It will probably be the same for Covid. Most likely we need to vaccinate kids to get there. Then Covid will die like a hunted dodo bird. Covid vax will be added to the childhood immunization schedule to keep it dead. Maybe there will be an adult booster like MMR. On into the future, very rarely a few people will get Covid infections introduced from overseas or other reservoirs. Like measles and whooping cough, these will mostly occur in anti-vaxxer groups, though there will be some breakthrough cases as well.

It's possible the current vaccines don't work well enough against infection, or protection fades too quickly, or we fail to get enough of the population vaccinated. So far, we're 50% vaxxed, and the experts were saying we need to get above 70%. Since delta, most think the threshold is yet higher. Nobody knows precisely. Mathematically, the higher we get vax rates above the threshold, the faster Covid goes away and the better we resist future outbreaks. I think we'll make it, and it's far too early to say we won't.

[Skidog]

I'll take a shot at this. The short answer is Zeno's paradox, known by ancient Greeks. Basically, if every generation (infection, incubation, recovery) of Covid results in the next generation being smaller, eventually Covid dies out. And, most of us never get an infection. You can see this in recent extinction of many species on Earth. They kept reproducing "round and round," but didn't reproduce enough and became extinct.

We don't technically know the answer for Covid yet, but for most other diseases we vaccinate against, those diseases die out. We occasionally get small outbreaks due to foreign reintroductions, but those too die out. It will probably be the same for Covid. Most likely we need to vaccinate kids to get there. Then Covid will die like a hunted dodo bird. Covid vax will be added to the childhood immunization schedule to keep it dead. Maybe there will be an adult booster like MMR. On into the future, very rarely a few people will get Covid infections introduced from overseas or other reservoirs. Like measles and whooping cough, these will mostly occur in anti-vaxxer groups, though there will be some breakthrough cases as well.

It's possible the current vaccines don't work well enough against infection, or protection fades too quickly, or we fail to get enough of the population vaccinated. So far, we're 50% vaxxed, and the experts were saying we need to get above 70%. Since delta, most think the threshold is yet higher. Nobody knows precisely. Mathematically, the higher we get vax rates above the threshold, the faster Covid goes away and the better we resist future outbreaks. I think we'll make it, and it's far too early to say we won't.

Thank you. Exactly what I was seeing and in easy to understand terms. 75% with Delta seems the general consensus. Long road ahead still..The new mandate will help hopefully.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using TGR Forums mobile app

[bennymac]

Can we agree that if you are protesting outside a hospital you are a complete waste of space selfish asshole?

[twat]

I am not the smartest. guys thank for loading me with arguments for a conversation : ) 3 sentences and there eyes are rolling : ) not that i change anything.... but i feal like a winner!

5 sentences and they are done!

[frorider]

Austin, I think that what gets irritating is when the nuance conversations drag on with no clear point. Most here are just focusing on the big picture solutions that can help us get to some level of normalcy sooner. Seems that the non-troll Nuancers end up arguing semantics until they ultimately agree with the experts…or at least admit that the nuance doesn’t change anything in terms of what needs to be done.

[yeahman]

Can we agree that if you are protesting outside a hospital you are a complete waste of space selfish asshole?

YES

[Game Over]

X2

[frorider]

Meanwhile in Denmark: https://news.google.com/articles/CAI...S&ceid=US%3Aen

"The basis for an open society is vaccinations. 86 % of all invited (from 12 years and up) have received 1+ dose. 96 % of everyone above 50 are fully vaccinated." he tweeted Friday. "Throughout the pandemic [Denmark] has had higher acceptance than many comparable countries. No mandates needed."

[MultiVerse]

A new CDC report says the unvaccinated are 5X more likely to become infected, >10X more likely to be hospitalized, and >11X more likely to die from Coviid than vaccinated individuals:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...cid=mm7037e1_w


The CDC also reports vaccine effectiveness wanes for Americans older than 65 falling from 95% to 80% with the biggest drop off after age 75:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...cid=mm7037e3_w

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Does this mean we will need the scary booster shots?


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[MultiVerse]

Older Americans along with vulnerable Americans like immunocompromised and transplant patients are already or will be eligible but no word yet on boosters for everyone else. Either way, for most people vaccines remain highly effective.

[Game Over]

What’s to stop someone from going in and pretending like it’s their first dose?

Nada.

Friends boyfriend (who is a MD) did just that at Rite-aid

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Older Americans along with vulnerable Americans like immunocompromised and transplant patients are already or will be eligible but no word yet on boosters for everyone else. Either way, for most people vaccines remain highly effective.

I was joking. There’s been a lot of anxiety here about yearly boosters. I don’t think it’s a big deal either way.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[PB]

I'm putting this whole thread on ignore.

Which is sad.

[DougW]

But maybe this thread has turned a corner? isn't everyone pretty much agreeing now after so many pages...

[westoxified]

But maybe this thread has turned a corner? isn't everyone pretty much agreeing now after so many pages...

hopefully. some recent challenges but most have held strong.

[billyk]

The Abbott Labs Binax were available here for about minute. Wife bought one at Sam's Club. You get two tests in a box for $20 She showed it to me and I went on Amazon to see if they had them. Yep, so I bought one. But, when I heard the updated school policy about being out for any reason without a doctors note requires a COVID test for an excused absence last week I went back to Amazon to buy a couple more... SHIT.. back ordered until November... FUCK!

I saw those at Walgreens last spring. Didn’t seem to be a big demand for them back then. No idea if they still have any now, though.

Edit: I did a search for “Walgreens antibody test kit”. The closest store to me is out of stock, but it looks like there is another Walgreens about 20 miles away that has them in stock.

[TBS]

But maybe this thread has turned a corner? isn't everyone pretty much agreeing now after so many pages...

…And those still against vaccinations (other than the trolls) have ceased to post here

[Crusty]

What’s to stop someone from going in and pretending like it’s their first dose?

Nada.

Friends boyfriend (who is a MD) did just that at Rite-aid

Glad he got vaxxed, where'd he go to medical school?

[Flyoverland Captive]

Does this mean we will need the scary booster shots?

Jebus, how many Gates chips do we need?

[Game Over]

Glad he got vaxxed, where'd he go to medical school?

Sorry I should have been a little more clear—> It was a booster shot.

I have never met him- don’t even know his name. But he works at Scrips in SD…. With our friend. Yes-> Workplace hookup!!!’

[twat]

i think this thread is pretty real. thanks to persisting trolls / shitposters / arguers ( not naming anybody) this thread is real.
with a vaxx rate of 60% here... there is antivaxxers all around me. some closer some further. and hearing their arguments is like being in the padded room.
in real life it is hard for me to keep the conversation up with an idiot.... which is related to you...
but here it is vital, i guess lot of lurkers appreciate the conversation here.

but the stuff you hear in the real world is scary!!!

there is a covid medicine out there and they are holding it back.
cause they have to get rid of of the vaxxes in the storages..... scary bullshit

but when the med is released in " " we don´t need no vaxx anymore...

[Core Shot]

Things that make you go hmmmmm?
Or not.

[SumJongGuy]

Older Americans along with vulnerable Americans like immunocompromised and transplant patients are already or will be eligible but no word yet on boosters for everyone else. Either way, for most people vaccines remain highly effective.

My sister has Lupus and got her booster last month. My cousin was at the pharmacy last week with his wife and noticed they were giving boosters so they asked. The pharmacist said "only for high risk people". My cousin's wife said "what about for a heart patient?". My cousin had heart surgery in July. The pharmacist said "step right up" without making any calls or checking anything to validate the high risk condition. Pretty sure if you REALLY want one you can go ahead and get one with some kind of additional concern expressed.

[schuss]

Things that make you go hmmmmm?
Or not.

Whoever is doing that graph labeling is bad.
Israel vs. Sweden - apples and oranges as Swedish culture and density is VASTLY different than Israel. For example - Israel has 400 people per square km vs. Sweden's 25. You can also see the ramp start with the mask mandate lifted, then the exponential effects take root (especially considering time to positive test is anywhere from 4-18 days post exposure in general)
Australia - So lockdowns work? It doesn't have any info on when lockdowns were lifted in different regions. It's meant to convince you that lockdowns don't work, but that long flat period shows they do even with their omission of regional opening status.