To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[buttahflake]

Or maybe I could work for the IRS, piss test for that?

[Skidog]

Slow on the uptake? People are all to aware breakthroughs happen.



His article says 40% of reported cases are breakthroughs. This is due in large part to the much discussed base rate fallacy. Massachusetts has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country so naturally there's going to be a lot of breakthrough cases. He's just rehashing the same old arguments.

It's counterintuitive at first, but makes total sense when you think about it. The higher the vax rate the higher the breakthrough cases but overall lower number of cases:

Attachment 384945

We also know the unvaccinated are less likely to get tested unless they have a severe case.

i never said it was about vax rates. I clearly said that the jury is still out on how much viral load a vaxxed individual sheds with DELTA....nothing more....I get that a population thats more vaxxed will SHOW more breakthrough cases...people vaxxed can get it, and can give it to other vaxxed people right? yes typically the end result is better if vaxxed, but just seems like a never ending story if we all just keep passing it round and round.

I wish everyone would get the vax. Hell even if we can hit 90%ish percent we should be good...thats where we are with MMR (2018 stats). I just think this bugs with us for the long haul..vax or not.

[skaredshtles]

did you miss this part?

Breakthrough infections again accounted for about 40% of all cases reported in Massachusetts last week.

...

[buttahflake]

Or maybe a land surveyor, piss test?

[Deebased]

I agree, and it sucks POTUS had to take the route he has....the division in this country is only growing deeper by the day, maybe minute.

Anyone else looking for govt jobs? Gotta believe there might be quite a few openings really soon.

The positive thing about the latest Biden mandate is we the people now know its very possible to FIRE govt employees. Up to this point its taken an act of dog and a multi-year history of repeated idiocy or confirmation they were a whistleblower.

Thanks Biden

[Skidog]

...

so wait...cause more are vaxxed we should ignore how many are still getting and transmitting Covid? If it moves around the vaxxed well enough, how does it end?

[jono]

i never said it was about vax rates.

And that's why their importance is being explained to you. Because the base rate fallacy is about vax rates, so it seems like you are missing that.

[MultiVerse]

how does it end?

It ends with the vaccinated defanging the virus. As your article points out unvaccinated people dominate hospitalizations. So over time these effects win out and we end up with an endemic virus we can live with:

1. Vaccinated people are less likely to be infected
2. Viral loads in vaccinated individuals fall quicker
3. Even at similar viral loads, culture samples show less viable virus in vaccinated individuals
4. Vaccination minimizes symptoms
5. Studies also show a reduction of asymptomatic infection with vaccines
6. Empirical evidence suggests vaccination reduces transmission

[Skidog]

And that's why their importance is being explained to you. Because the base rate fallacy is about vax rates, so it seems like you are missing that.

but, and I am honestly asking for education here, if we keep passing delta from vaxxed to vaxxed, doesnt that give it a chance to continue to mutate? The vax is obviously working at keeping people out of the hospital, but even if the entire world were vaxxed 100%, doesnt Delta still spin?

[wooley12]

No. You're welcome

[mtuhockey33]

but, and I am honestly asking for education here, if we keep passing delta from vaxxed to vaxxed, doesnt that give it a chance to continue to mutate? The vax is obviously working at keeping people out of the hospital, but even if the entire world were vaxxed 100%, doesnt Delta still spin?

everyone’s saying the unvaccinated are the ones who are going to cause the virus to mutate. But you’d think if everyone was vaccinated, still able to transmit the virus, eventually it would mutate and we’d have to come up with a new shot for new strain… and the next new strain… and the next new strain… every year until it’s like the flu vacci…. Wait a second. We’re able to fire employees over not getting their yearly flu vaccine? Boy America sure is the land of the free….. 🙄

[Skidog]

I just kinda want to add something. I want you all to know that I am PRO VAX, if that wasnt obvious. I am and do take this seriously. Doesnt mean I dont read.

As an example I wear my mask again inside all stores, no need for a mandate, just seems like the neighborly thing to do..

Second example. My daughter came home yesterday not feeling well, she is 12 and vaxxed, but as a precaution my wife took her to get a covid test this morning. Just got results of rapid and shes negative. We have kids over playing all the time so I wanted to be safe.

[mtuhockey33]

No. You're welcome

made you 100% sure about that? Wanna show some evidence of proof since that’s what you guys seem to get a hard on for?

[MultiVerse]

@ mtuhockey Your assumptions are wrong, the virus is less likely to mutate in vaccinated individuals. Previously infected vaccinated individuals, people with hybrid immunity, stand an even better chance of preventing mutations. They're even immune to the original SARS.

[Skidog]

No. You're welcome

nice retort. now tell me how...? vax infects vaxed....who infects vaxed...how does the vaccine stop that? Sure we dont die, we dont go to hospitals but it goes and goes...

I, and it seems the CDC/WHO/Medical community, is starting to lean the way of "yearly boosters" type thing to me...nothing definitive for sure, but the chatter has started.

[Skidog]

@ mtuhockey Your assumptions are wrong, the virus is less likely to mutate in vaccinated individuals.

Is there somewhere I can look at this data? Genuinely interested. Does the vax somehow stop the mutations?

[MultiVerse]

vax infects vaxed....who infects vaxed...how does the vaccine stop that? Sure we dont die, we dont go to hospitals but it goes and goes...

Is there somewhere I can look at this data? Genuinely interested. Does the vax somehow stop the mutations?

Think of it as a function because otherwise you're oversimplifying. It's not all vaxed infecting all vaxxed. The numbers decrease over time as depicted by the chart on the previous page. Vaccines decrease the opportunities for mutations.

[SumJongGuy]

so wait...cause more are vaxxed we should ignore how many are still getting and transmitting Covid? If it moves around the vaxxed well enough, how does it end?

Except that MA is one of the most vaccinated states and has one of the lowest positive rates overall.. So, looks like it's "moving around just fine" in the states with lower vaccination rates. MA had a 40% breakthrough case rate but only had a handful of total cases. So, it's NOT moving around just fine among the vaccinated at all. The vast majority of total vaccinated folks are fairing just fine.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

[Skidog]

Except that MA is one of the most vaccinated states and has one of the lowest positive rates overall.. So, looks like it's "moving around just fine" in the states with lower vaccination rates. MA had a 40% breakthrough case rate but only had a handful of total cases. So, it's NOT moving around just fine among the vaccinated at all. The vast majority of total vaccinated folks are fairing just fine.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

no i get that....vax keeps you out of the hospital. I also understand its not all vax to vax transmission. What I am not seeming to wrap my head around is that how would it go away entirely, and not possibly mutate (DELTA) if vax still pass to vax....? Are we sort of agreeing this will be like another yearly flu shot type thing? The target moves year to year? Again....not confrontational here at all I would like to understand that part...just seems like if we are still passing it around, even with a 100% worldwide vax rate, it can still mutate again?

[mcphee]

Is there somewhere I can look at this data? Genuinely interested. Does the vax somehow stop the mutations?

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the vax itself doesn’t stop mutations. The vax slows the spread of the virus, weakening it to where mutations can’t develop.

[Deebased]

It ends with the vaccinated defanging the virus. As your article points out unvaccinated people dominate hospitalizations. So over time these effects win out and we end up with an endemic virus we can live with:

1. Vaccinated people are less likely to be infected
2. Viral loads in vaccinated individuals fall quicker
3. Even at similar viral loads, culture samples show less viable virus in vaccinated individuals
4. Vaccination minimizes symptoms
5. Studies also show a reduction of asymptomatic infection with vaccines
6. Empirical evidence suggests vaccination reduces transmission

One important facet that seemingly gets skipped over at every opportunity is the behavior of vaxed vs unvaxed towards safety protocols.
Vaxxed are far more likely to take safety precautions (masking, social distancing, etc)

[Adolf Allerbush]

Except that MA is one of the most vaccinated states and has one of the lowest positive rates overall.. So, looks like it's "moving around just fine" in the states with lower vaccination rates. MA had a 40% breakthrough case rate but only had a handful of total cases. So, it's NOT moving around just fine among the vaccinated at all. The vast majority of total vaccinated folks are fairing just fine.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

but but but but but but....

that's all I hear out of Skidog and mtuhockey....it's been said before but look at the polio vaccine, it's not 100% effective either, but do you worry about getting polio? Not really because the vaccine, over time, mostly eradicated it from our society. It's not because it kept being passed from vaxxed person to vaxxed person and mutating, like you guys are suggesting will happen with COVID-19...and also, what you're suggesting is not what the CDC is claiming, so stop it.

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the vax itself doesn’t stop mutations. The vax slows the spread of the virus, weakening it to where mutations can’t develop.

That's my understanding and what I think Skidog and mtuhockey aren't understanding, at least not understanding very well. They're assuming every vaxed person gets COVID but is maybe symptom free and the virus could mutate, then that vaxxed person spreads it to another vaxxed or unvaxxed person, it has the potential to mutate again, and so on and so forth. I think that's partially true, except everytime a vaxxed person is exposed they don't always get COVID-19 and spread it.

[jono]

There was a link posted yesterday to a TWIV episode. They talked in there about different levels of immunity depending on different prime/boost scenarios, like infection+vax and vax+(breakthrough) infection. The consensus seemed to be that maybe getting infected after being vaccinated would squash the infection enough to prevent building really huge immunity (which would be good, because if that happens you already have enough immunity to squash it) but that in any case the site of the infection would still see a boost in antibodies. So vaccinated people who get a breakthrough will typically gain mucosal antibodies (which we know are not well supplied by the vaccines), meaning they are that much more likely to have sterilizing immunity afterwards.

The dominant reason for breakthroughs seems to be the virus finding the relatively unprotected sinuses, not evading the vaccines. Which means breakthroughs will go down with time since very few people should get two of them.

[Skidog]

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the vax itself doesn’t stop mutations. The vax slows the spread of the virus, weakening it to where mutations can’t develop.

That was EXACTLY my point with Delta Viral loads...YES we shed them for less time, but it seems that during that "less time" we infect with nearly the same viral load and non vaxxed. Yes vaxxed less sick, but round and round she goes.

[jono]

That was EXACTLY my point with Delta Viral loads...YES we shed them for less time, but it seems that during that "less time" we infect with nearly the same viral load and non vaxxed. Yes vaxxed less sick, but round and round she goes.

No. Scroll up.

To add to that, if the PCR test is done in the one place in your body that's underprotected, what do you think that does to the apparent viral loads measured compared with actual symptoms and disease? I think it means we see more "breakthrough" cases that are completely restricted to the sinuses and effectively inflate the numbers. How much? IDK