Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Do you have a citation for this... because that's pretty horrific as a policy, IMO.

My coworker, a trusted friend, lived in Sweden for a couple years got that from her friends and family in Sweden. Doesn’t really sound surprising given their initial approach and that it’s Sweden. Pragmatic people


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[Meadow Skipper]

I think we hit Peak America in 1945 and it's been a long slow decline. We've definitely hit a peak something, but it's not a good thing

In a lot of ways, yes.

[bodywhomper]

Podcast on long covid focusing on the leader of the main advocacy group in the US. Very much worth all people’s time to listen to the whole thing. People need to speak up to their doctor if they are feeling off after being infected or suspect they may have been infected. https://omny.fm/shows/in-the-bubble/...-diana-berrent

[bodywhomper]

Lausd’s baseline testing resulted in over 3200 positive students: https://ktla.com/news/local-news/lau...chool-testing/

[huckbucket]

New critical review on the origin.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(21)00991-0.pdf

As for the vast majority of human viruses, the most parsimonious explanation for the origin of
SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic event. The documented epidemiological history of the virus is
comparable to previous animal market-associated outbreaks of coronaviruses with a simple route
for human exposure. The contact tracing of SARS-CoV-2 to markets in Wuhan exhibits striking
similarities to the early spread of SARS-CoV to markets in Guangdong, where humans infected
early in the epidemic lived near or worked in animal markets. Zoonotic spillover by definition
selects for viruses able to infect humans. Although strong safeguards should be consistently
employed to minimize the likelihood of laboratory accidents in virological research, those
laboratory escapes documented to date have almost exclusively involved viruses brought into
laboratories specifically because of their known human infectivity.

There is currently no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin. There is no evidence
that any early cases had any connection to the WIV, in contrast to the clear epidemiological links
to animal markets in Wuhan, nor evidence that the WIV possessed or worked on a progenitor of
SARS-CoV-2 prior to the pandemic. The suspicion that SARS-CoV-2 might have a laboratory
origin stems from the coincidence that it was first detected in a city that houses a major
virological laboratory that studies coronaviruses. Wuhan is the largest city in central China with
multiple animal markets and is a major hub for travel and commerce, well connected to other
areas both within China and internationally. The link to Wuhan therefore more likely reflects the
fact that pathogens often require heavily populated areas to become established (Pekar et al.,
2021).

We contend that although the animal reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 has not been identified and the
key species may not have been tested, in contrast to other scenarios there is substantial body of
scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin. While the possibility of a laboratory accident
cannot be entirely dismissed, and may be near impossible to falsify, this conduit for emergence is
highly unlikely relative to the numerous and repeated human-animal contacts that occur routinely
in the wildlife trade. Failure to comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through
collaborative and carefully coordinated studies would leave the world vulnerable to future
pandemics arising from the same human activities that have repeatedly put us on a collision
course with novel viruses.

[MontuckyFried]

[jono]

A new observational study from Israel suggests natural infection confers longer lasting protection than the Pfizer 2 dose / 3 week schedule for those either infected or vaccinated in Jan-Feb 2021. While similar not yet published data from the UK suggests longer intervals between doses offers more sustained protection.

The study also shows a single dose on top of a previous infection provides a lot of protection. Because protection still wanes for in the wild infection too, a single vaccine dose cuts the risk in half compared to those infected and unvaccinated.

Caveats: The study only applies to Delta and the Pfizer vaccine; does not estimate asymptomatic infections; does not account for health behavior; does not account for health status or susceptibility to covid-19 between groups; and there's no way to know if previously infected persons re-test for reinfection or assume instead they're infected with something else. Also, the unvaccinated in Israel tend to be concentrated in conservative communities which could skew the data since the current wave didn't hit those places until after the study period:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...415v1.full.pdf

Had to jump out of the skidog thread. Apologies if I'm just missing it, but did they discuss the need to account for selection bias in the previously infected? I mean natural selection bias, of course. The would-be dead sure seem more likely to suffer a breakthrough infection according to everything I hear from the "take your vitamin D and don't be a diabetic" crowd.

Also the change in behavior is going to be opposite: more careful by those who suffered greatly and less careful by those who didn't will heavily bias this in favor of infection. I'll try to read more, but I didn't see anything on those.

[Rideski]

Construction industry getting heavy hits. https://www.constructiondive.com/new...-color/604705/

[MultiVerse]

Had to jump out of the skidog thread. Apologies if I'm just missing it, but did they discuss the need to account for selection bias in the previously infected? I mean natural selection bias, of course. The would-be dead sure seem more likely to suffer a breakthrough infection according to everything I hear from the "take your vitamin D and don't be a diabetic" crowd.

Also the change in behavior is going to be opposite: more careful by those who suffered greatly and less careful by those who didn't will heavily bias this in favor of infection. I'll try to read more, but I didn't see anything on those.

Yeah, in the absence of a randomized trial I think any observational results will end up confounded by all sorts of things. While almost certainly biased by behavior too, something as simple as people choosing not to be vaccinated also choosing not get tested when they have a mild case would make it look like vaccines are much less effective than they really are.

Because if unvaccinated previously infected people also avoided testing then the ratio would appear skewed towards vaccine breakthrough infections making it look like protection is waning.

For example, the trials said the probability of infection for vaxxed vs unvaxxed is p=1/20 or 0.05 or 95% effective. Unlike in a trial however, if unvaccinated people only get tested when they have severe symptoms then the probability of an unvaccinated mild case almost disappears.

It's still happening of course but it's not showing up in the data.

So instead of p = 1/20, if only 1-in-5 unvaccinated people get 'mild' tested, the ratio for mild cases changes to something like 9/20 or 0.45, making it look like the vaccine is only 55% effective when it comes to breakthrough cases, and also making previous infection look better by comparison.

Whereas if severe cases for both vaxxed and unvaxxed are tested at the same rate then protection against severe disease appears to hold up even though little has changed in either case.

[Lvovsky]

The kid tested positive. Had cough since Thursday pm. We pulled him from school and daycare Friday because cough continued in the morning. Got him tested Saturday. Results came back Tuesday.

Good thing we canceled my dads birthday dinner on Sunday (he is 76) and couple of play dates.

The kid is a six year old with partial Jacobsen syndrome - delayed development across the board. We were proper fucked even before COVID. Now we have that too. So far he is full of energy and is totally fine other than occasional cough.

Let’s hope he fights it of without complications. And mine and wife’s vaccines work too. All three of us are going to get tested tomorrow.

Fuck my life


And to the “researchers”, deniers, anti-vaxers, and anti-maskers: FUCK YOU and fuck off.

[bodywhomper]

^^^Hoping for the best^^^

[bodywhomper]

Can I repost my healthcare unions opposing vax mandate question here? What’s their deal?

[Mazderati]

The SEIU Local 1000 currently looks like a gong show from some of the stuff published online.

https://inthesetimes.com/article/cal...brown-election


And here is the new, seemingly anti-union, union president questioning vaccine safety.

https://twitter.com/RichardReal7437/...21815407501312


Unions are run by people and people are dumb.

[Rideski]

^ so he’s dissing Yvonne for not having a degree, but he’s an antivaxxer?
Screen shot for people not on twit.

[bodywhomper]

The SEIU Local 1000 currently looks like a gong show from some of the stuff published online.

https://inthesetimes.com/article/cal...brown-election


And here is the new, seemingly anti-union, union president questioning vaccine safety.

https://twitter.com/RichardReal7437/...21815407501312


Unions are run by people and people are dumb.

Thx. Is it similar for local 1199? https://www.1199seiu.org/vaccine-yes...g7rMQSmzQFRENo

I was holding out that this was a collective bargaining thing, rather than people being dumb.

[Mazderati]

I just googled all that shit so you're asking with someone with 15 minutes of background. It's possible the route to the same dumb decision is different. Local 1000 looks particularly chaotic.

[bodywhomper]

I just googled all that shit so you're asking with someone with 15 minutes of background. It's possible the route to the same dumb decision is different. Local 1000 looks particularly chaotic.

Ha! Honest research! :P

Days or weeks ago, I can’t remember which, I thought I saw a healthcare union opposing vax mandate because it was breaching some collective bargaining agreement regarding their healthcare coverage. I think it was an interview in a news piece. Now, I can’t find much worthwhile about those biggie seiu groups.

[altasnob]

Washington state employee union sues Gov. Jay Inslee to delay vaccine mandate, pending negotiations

The Washington Federation of State Employees (WFSE) filed an unfair labor practices complaint last week in Thurston County Superior Court, alleging the Inslee administration has failed to bargain in good faith over the vaccine requirement.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-negotiations/

[LongShortLong]

Yeah, I don't get it. If I were in a union, I'd bargain to require us all to be vaxed. Who wants sick coworkers? Management tries to help us so we sue them to stop? Maybe I just misunderstand unions.

[jono]

If they weren't free the unions would be all about making management provide them.

[altasnob]

Unlike other states, Washington's mandate does not provide a testing alternative. You don't get vaxed, you are fired. One of the complaints the state employees union had was what happens when 20% of employees abruptly quit or are fired? What about the remaining employees who all of the sudden are forced to pick up the slack? The union wasn't against the idea of the mandate, but they believe the state needs bargain with them before implementing the mandate to discuss all of these collateral issues.

[Yonder_River]

It's just a bunch of bluster by the ironical amount of conservatives employed by state government. Trust me, they like the government teet known as PERS so most of those will be sticking around and not trying to reinvent their lives in Idaho.

[AK47bp]

Yeah, I don't get it. If I were in a union, I'd bargain to require us all to be vaxed. Who wants sick coworkers? Management tries to help us so we sue them to stop? Maybe I just misunderstand unions.

It’s a control issue.

It’s like buying a new car and not consulting with your wife first.


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[altasnob]

There is a rumor state ferry workers are going to skip work during Labor Day weekend in protest, which would shut down the ferry system.

Rumors are flying about a potential sickout by employees who object to state vaccination mandates.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...r-day-weekend/

[huckbucket]

It’s a control issue.

It’s like buying a new car and not consulting with your wife first.


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Yeah no. Everyone in the US has access to the expert recommendation from the FDA, the CDC and their personal doctor if they have one. Similarly, everyone has access to television in which those messages are propagated assuming you don't have FOX or OAN on lock. If someone doesn't want to listen to experts they can't claim they weren't consulted.