To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[old_newguy]

Delta replicates faster, resulting in higher viral burdens earlier post exposure. Thus is leading to more symptomatic infection in those who are exposed, a couple limited studies suggest this is less than 10% asymptomatic in unvaxxed. Including children.

Delta has shifted the age profile significantly, more infections in kids and young adults than the 65+ group though the latter remains the most susceptible to severe infection and death.

Tldr Delta causes more infections and symptomatic disease, more kids needing hospitalization and ICU, but kids still are much less at risk for death.

Thank you. Are you aware of any data to this effect yet?

Also: I was watching a YouTube video and the host (let’s just say a prominent skeptic about COVID, etc) mentioned a study that indicated that vaccines that allow transmission of the virus like the situation we currently have with Delta can be detrimental to the long term goal of eradicating the virus because it can encourage mutation. Any concern with that scenario or is this just more FUD propaganda?

[The AD]

Thank you. Are you aware of any data to this effect yet?

Also: I was watching a YouTube video and the host (let’s just say a prominent skeptic about COVID, etc) mentioned a study that indicated that vaccines that allow transmission of the virus like the situation we currently have with Delta can be detrimental to the long term goal of eradicating the virus because it can encourage mutation. Any concern with that scenario or is this just more FUD propaganda?

This doesn't make much sense to me. The fewer people who have COVID, the fewer instances of the virus, thus less chance for mutation. Vaccines reduce the total number of people with COVID.

[LongShortLong]

Having followed this thread, this is something I, a complete dummy, have been aware of. One would assume the CDC has been aware of it. So, why were they so quick to change their masking recommendations? Given the current state of things, it seems borderline incompetent.

Seems pretty clear that CDC is managing a flu pandemic, protecting the health system until the flu burns out. From this perspective, the health system had plenty of capacity when they changed their masking recommendations.

My take is CDC is a bureaucracy. That means CDC is pretty good at establishing standard processes, following them, and carefully considering changes to procedures. A bureaucracy's strength is both following the established standard processes and slow, deliberate, reasoned change (that takes years). CDC's recent decades include relatively harmless though widespread flu pandemics, and more serious epidemics that affected few and ended quickly. So, CDC is good at managing these types of outbreaks. Covid is both more serious and widespread, so the procedures aren't achieving the desired effects.

Bureaucracies don't do creative thinking or adapt rapidly, by design. In five or ten years, CDC will have plenty of studies analyzing the pandemic and response. With luck, their procedures will better match future pandemics. Meanwhile they will try to follow playbooks written decades ago to manage extra flu cases and fail at managing Covid. Our executives or legislators could recognize solutions and press the bureaucracy for change or drive change via emergency powers or law, as they have with some effect (positive and negative).

To the mask question, CDC bureaucrats have likely been planning a return to normal since early 2020. By early 2021, infections peaked and began to fall rapidly, and we had a successful looking vaccination program. This supplied justification for removing restrictions, so internally meetings were held, change processes followed, papers written to support removing masks, etc. After a few months, they were ready, and dropped the mask requirement. Mission accomplished!

To us, by Spring we could see the rapid case decline had ended, suggesting maybe we ought to keep precautions. By late Spring, a careful look at the data showed delta was surging, doubling every week or two (there was a new surge hiding in the flat case data). To the degree CDC noticed either trend, it was too late to affect bureaucratic momentum toward normal.

[old_newguy]

I’m thinking this is FUD if you look at the last sentence in the abstract.

I’m not versed enough in the field to know how this paper fits in the literature.

Here is the study:

http://europepmc.org/article/PMC/4516275

Abstract:

Could some vaccines drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens? Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek's disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.

[MultiVerse]

^ Vaccinations do not nurture SARS-CoV-2 mutations. Instead, full vaccination suppresses SARS-CoV-2 delta variant mutation frequency:

Data shows that countries with higher vaccination rates generated fewer mutations, suggesting less of a chance for the virus to gain virulent mutations in high vaccinated countries. Because the vaccination coverage rate is inversely correlated to the mutation frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variants full vaccination against COVID-19 is critical to suppress emergent mutations.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....08.21261768v1

[Hobie Dick]

Posting for the shear stupidity not because he's a Trump supporter.







Hear why Trump supporter says he won't get the vaccine

HA let me go interview anyone on any college campus and ask what they love about communism and the rampant stupidity will flow like wine.

People including myself have refused this vax not because we are anti vax... I have had more than I can count but because every bit of information regarding side effects and long term implications have been scrubbed for political purposes. The American government has become the enemy of freedom and all of their actions regarding this vax have been corrupt.I don't believe a word that Fauci-Mengle utters.

If you have chosen to get this vax... there you go you are now allegedly protected. Quit running your idiot mouth about those of us who have chosen to wait and see how it plays out on the Guinea pigs who have been jabbed . A few years down the road I may choose to get it if like every other legit v ax i can research possible problems associated with it. Untll then i view every vaxed person as a walking lab rat

[Adolf Allerbush]

STo us, by Spring we could see the rapid case decline had ended, suggesting maybe we ought to keep precautions. By late Spring, a careful look at the data showed delta was surging, doubling every week or two (there was a new surge hiding in the flat case data). To the degree CDC noticed either trend, it was too late to affect bureaucratic momentum toward normal.

I'd add that CDC probably assumed that people wouldn't be politically motivated against vaccination, or irrational behavior...take Hobbie Dick here. So they assessed the situation, cases were low, people were getting the vaccinations, by summer we would be in a pretty good spot with over 70% vaccinated...but for a variety of reasons, mainly irrational behavior but also some legitimate ones, we're back to a high case count.

I also keep thinking, even with masking going back in effect, we're still much more "open" than we were pre-vaccinations.

[old_newguy]

I'd add that CDC probably assumed that people wouldn't be politically motivated against vaccination, or irrational behavior...take Hobbie Dick here. So they assessed the situation, cases were low, people were getting the vaccinations, by summer we would be in a pretty good spot with over 70% vaccinated...but for a variety of reasons, mainly irrational behavior but also some legitimate ones, we're back to a high case count.

I also keep thinking, even with masking going back in effect, we're still much more "open" than we were pre-vaccinations.

Assuming people would get vaccinated was pretty stupid considering the behavior around masking and social distancing.

[ex-powderbroker]

HA let me go interview anyone on any college campus and ask what they love about communism and the rampant stupidity will flow like wine.

People including myself have refused this vax not because we are anti vax... I have had more than I can count but because every bit of information regarding side effects and long term implications have been scrubbed for political purposes. The American government has become the enemy of freedom and all of their actions regarding this vax have been corrupt.I don't believe a word that Fauci-Mengle utters.

If you have chosen to get this vax... there you go you are now allegedly protected. Quit running your idiot mouth about those of us who have chosen to wait and see how it plays out on the Guinea pigs who have been jabbed . A few years down the road I may choose to get it if like every other legit v ax i can research possible problems associated with it. Untll then i view every vaxed person as a walking lab rat

https://www.reuters.com/technology/f...ax-2021-08-10/

https://www.codastory.com/newsletter...demic-june-25/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6137759/

https://fortune.com/2021/07/23/russi...s-study-finds/

CONGRATULATIONS, STOOGE!

[bagtagley]

Assuming people would get vaccinated was pretty stupid considering the behavior around masking and social distancing.

And the fact that 40+% of Americans were saying that they weren’t going to get vaccinated.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Assuming people would get vaccinated was pretty stupid considering the behavior around masking and social distancing.

Yeah, I guess you're right. It's so fucking easy to get vaccinated, I don't see how it's such a heavy lift for some people.

And the fact that 40+% of Americans were saying that they weren’t going to get vaccinated.

Well, when you put it that way!

[huckbucket]

I’m thinking this is FUD if you look at the last sentence in the abstract.

I’m not versed enough in the field to know how this paper fits in the literature.

Here is the study:

http://europepmc.org/article/PMC/4516275

Abstract:

Could some vaccines drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens? Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek's disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.

That last sentence is factual.

It's true that vaccines that permit transmission can mutate into more virulent forms. BUT ....

For the current crop of vaccines the infection rate and transmission rate IS LOWER THAN being unvaccinated.
In addition, the idea that a more virulent strain would cause "more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts" omits the fact that it could also effect vaccinated hosts (if protection is compromised through mutation).

[ticketchecker]

AEG, the world's second largest presenter of live music and entertainment events, has announced that it is requiring proof of full vaccination by audience members and event staff at all of its owned and operated clubs, theaters and festivals, starting October 1.

https://www.rollingstone.com/pro/new...covid-1211290/

[paulster2626]

HA let me go interview anyone on any college campus and ask what they love about communism and the rampant stupidity will flow like wine.

People including myself have refused this vax not because we are anti vax... I have had more than I can count but because every bit of information regarding side effects and long term implications have been scrubbed for political purposes. The American government has become the enemy of freedom and all of their actions regarding this vax have been corrupt.I don't believe a word that Fauci-Mengle utters.

If you have chosen to get this vax... there you go you are now allegedly protected. Quit running your idiot mouth about those of us who have chosen to wait and see how it plays out on the Guinea pigs who have been jabbed . A few years down the road I may choose to get it if like every other legit v ax i can research possible problems associated with it. Untll then i view every vaxed person as a walking lab rat

Actually, it's you who's the walking lab rat, constantly testing how contagious the latest COVID strain is, and perhaps what its short and long-term effects will be.

[Deebased]

That is a *VERY* good free-market solution.

As is dumping healthcare for anybody overweight or who engages in "Extreme" sports.

Wanna be fat... Pay extra
Wanna jump off cliffs...pay extra
Wanna avoid the vaccine....pay extra.

[Deebased]

^ Vaccinations do not nurture SARS-CoV-2 mutations. Instead, full vaccination suppresses SARS-CoV-2 delta variant mutation frequency:

Data shows that countries with higher vaccination rates generated fewer mutations, suggesting less of a chance for the virus to gain virulent mutations in high vaccinated countries. Because the vaccination coverage rate is inversely correlated to the mutation frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variants full vaccination against COVID-19 is critical to suppress emergent mutations.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....08.21261768v1

While I hope its true this is a non-peer reviewed supposition.

[huckbucket]

Deeb thinks he understands exactly how to differentiate a lifestyle disorder from an inherited one. Good luck with that.

[MultiVerse]

Actually, it's you who's the walking lab rat, constantly testing how contagious the latest COVID strain is, and perhaps what its short and long-term effects will be.

Yep. While the risk to everyone has gone up because of Delta, the relative risk has increased even more for the unvaccinated.

[skaredshtles]

Actually, it's you who's the walking lab rat, constantly testing how contagious the latest COVID strain is, and perhaps what its short and long-term effects will be.

Plz don't quote the dum dums. Put them on Ignore. Please.

[seano732]

Welp, exactly one week of in person learning at the girls high school, and I’ve received TWENTY SEVEN emails from the school about COVID positives amongst teachers and staff……Thing Two started showing symptoms yesterday, so off to her PCP and then a test……There is now way we make it through the year, especially with all the dumb fucks bleating their anti-mask/ anti-vax lunacy at the most recent board meeting…..We are fuct.

[TBS]

I think it's coming? Maybe the federal government needs to stop springing for all testing? This was an interesting read: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/02/o...accinated.html

Good idea but I have to wonder about the Venn diagram of anti-vaxxers plus uninsured, and whether insurance discounts/surcharges would matter

[skaredshtles]

[The AD]

I’m thinking this is FUD if you look at the last sentence in the abstract.

I’m not versed enough in the field to know how this paper fits in the literature.

Here is the study:

http://europepmc.org/article/PMC/4516275

Abstract:

Could some vaccines drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens? Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek's disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.

OK, this does make sense, but my suspicion is that no current Covid variant is lethal enough to greatly affect the calculus.

[Danno]

it's Hawk.

[Deebased]

Deeb thinks he understands exactly how to differentiate a lifestyle disorder from an inherited one. Good luck with that.

Which one did Andy Samberg choose?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/whitneyjeff...stume-last-nig

Making yourself susceptible to a respiratory virus is a choice. Eating too many Doritos...... Also a choice.