To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[RoooR]

An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations. That’s about 0.1%.

And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.

https://www.9news.com/article/news/h...2-e91718797d33

Yep. If the entire country got vaccinated this thing would kill about as many people a year as random shit like falling in the shower. Instead it's probably gonna be more than automobiles for the foreseeable future.

[uglymoney]

Lazy writing on my part. Yeah, not rate, just "about half" of whatever sized sample.

I wouldn't worry about the little snippet in the WSJ. Israel has a large number of vaccinated vs unvaxxed and their death rate is still nearly zero.

Israel, with one of the world's most advanced vaccination campaigns largely based on the Pfizer-BioNTech shot, still lacks enough data to provide insight into vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant, said Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of public health at Israel's Health Ministry.
"We are collecting the data now. We are only now seeing the first cases of the Delta variant in Israel - about 200 of those - so we will know more soon," she told reporters on Wednesday.

I was wondering about natural immunity and the Delta variant and also about the claim that the first vaccine dose only gives 33% protection as has been commonly reported as late as today. Turns out the 33% is from post vax to 14 days....NOT at 14 days, where protection will be much higher. Also no evidence of the Delta evading natural immunity. The evidence of it causing more severe disease is still anecdotal and has not been detected in studies that looked at this. They said the same thing about the UK strain and it proved to be no more lethal than the previous strains.

Click the link for article and then click and listen to audio, it includes more info.

https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2021/06...delta-variant/

[paulster2626]

Don't worry though, I'm reading new articles about a "Delta Plus" variant so the media has a new thing to keep us all scared once Delta just turns out to be a not-that-big-a-deal.

Canada has just released guidance on what you can and cannot do regarding your vaccine status:
https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/ph...h-measures.pdf

I'll be printing this and posting it up in the backyard so any of our antivax dumb friends can adhere to it.

[Casey E]

On the other hand, maybe AZ or Pfizer are not as effective on variants, what with two of the most vaxed countries in the world now experiencing relative surges.



Israel
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...onavirus-spike

They do say that much of the uptick in Israel is in the unvaccinated young.

UK
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/uk-c...-in-cases.html

Bloody Brits are also weathering a Delta surge, with most measures on the rise.



Chile just officially detected the first Delta, promptly extended the travel ban to July 15, and is imposing more restrictions on entry. All in spite of falling cases and positivity. R is under 1 in most of the country. We hope the decline is as fast as Israels, as more youngsters are vaccinated and the hold-outs turn up for their shot. The pase movilidad is a great carrot. I can go stay at my place in the ski area now, take that anti vaxxer!

[old goat]

I wouldn't worry about the little snippet in the WSJ. Israel has a large number of vaccinated vs unvaxxed and their death rate is still nearly zero.



I was wondering about natural immunity and the Delta variant and also about the claim that the first vaccine dose only gives 33% protection as has been commonly reported as late as today. Turns out the 33% is from post vax to 14 days....NOT at 14 days, where protection will be much higher. Also no evidence of the Delta evading natural immunity. The evidence of it causing more severe disease is still anecdotal and has not been detected in studies that looked at this. They said the same thing about the UK strain and it proved to be no more lethal than the previous strains.

Click the link for article and then click and listen to audio, it includes more info.

https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2021/06...delta-variant/

Interesting--the guy who used the 33% figure on PBS is Gandhi's boss.
The article that Gandhi quotes says this: "both vaccines [Pfizer and AZ] were 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose compared to around 50% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant". That seems to support Wachter's statement. That doesn't mean single dose effectiveness couldn't continue to rise after 3 weeks. Effectiveness at 3 weeks doesn't mean effectiveness up to 3 weeks.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/v...-after-2-doses

With asymptomatic cases of delta showing up in vaccinated people, maybe the booster should be a nasal or inhaled vaccine. With the injected vaccine seeming to be very effective against getting sick with delta, the best way to prevent vaccinated people from being infected and transmitting might be to block the virus at the level of the first receptors--in the respiratory tract.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special...clusives/92527

This situation is similar to polio. The injected Salk vaccine and its descendants are very effective against getting sick with polio. The oral Sabin vaccine and its descendants are more effective at preventing transmission. (Polio transmission is fecal-oral.)

[Harry]

(polio transmission is fecal-oral.)

pure gravity needs to be careful with all his shit eating



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[riser4]

pure gravity needs to be careful with all his shit eating



Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Right? Don't be that guy.

[Ted Striker]

So that's why he changed his nom de guerre to pure anti-gravity

[pureantigravity]

We all have to eat shit at some time or other. Such is life

[uglymoney]

Interesting--the guy who used the 33% figure on PBS is Gandhi's boss.
The article that Gandhi quotes says this: "both vaccines [Pfizer and AZ] were 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose compared to around 50% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant". That seems to support Wachter's statement. That doesn't mean single dose effectiveness couldn't continue to rise after 3 weeks. Effectiveness at 3 weeks doesn't mean effectiveness up to 3 weeks.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/v...-after-2-doses

Thanks for the analysis OG and pointing out the connection between the two, obviously I have no idea who is who. I'm swayed by her hopefulness I think and want to believe it is more effective than 33% after dose 1. I'm looking at her twitter now trying to find if she posted where Public Health England clarified but can't find anything. I did find this on her twitter https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9 which is extremely reassuring ie vaccines effectiveness against hospital admissions alpha vs delta. Not peer reviewed yet so take it with a grain of course but basicallly if this is all true vaccinated people remain really safe. Obviously this is apples and oranges and does not address the 33% statement at all.

https://media.tghn.org/articles/Effe...B._G6gnnqJ.pdf



Also she posted this article on natural immunity from May 28th. Maybe this has already been shared here.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/reading...diseases/92828

This is interesting in the question and answer. Yes, it is very protective. Yes you should still get the vax.

What differentiates your study from previous reports of COVID-19 reinfection?

Rothberg: Our study was the first to look at actual reinfection rates, not just antibody levels, among people in the general population. We found that reinfection was rare but did occur, and that patients with previous infections were about 80% less likely to test positive in coming months.

Since your study ended, have developments in the pandemic had any impact on the relevance of your findings?

Rothberg: We started this study back in January 2021 when there wasn't nearly enough vaccine, and it wasn't clear when there would be. That isn't the case anymore. Now the issue is getting people to accept the vaccines. Our study showed that reinfection is more common than previously expected, and infection doesn't offer the same protection that vaccination does. So even people who've been previously infected should get vaccinated, though it's possible they will only need one dose. In other countries, where there still isn't enough vaccine, it would make sense to prioritize vaccination for those who are at high risk of infection and have never had COVID-19.

[bennymac]

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[bodywhomper]

You all have noticed that Wachter and Gandhi have been consistently interpreting the covid infection data differently and have been offering fairly different opinions regarding risk? They’ve been doing it for a while (maybe a year?). Gandhi has also been called out for cherry-picking her data.

[uglymoney]

You all have noticed that Wachter and Gandhi have been consistently interpreting the covid infection data differently and have been offering fairly different opinions regarding risk? They’ve been doing it for a while (maybe a year?). Gandhi has also been called out for cherry-picking her data.

I'm learning this. I think it helpful to have someone to balance out the alarmists but disappointed I can't find her reference to what she said about relative to the efficacy of dose 1. Without a pointer it is just more hearsay. That's why this place is cool.

On Twitter some Israeli reporter is claiming all the Delta positives amongst vaxxed are asymptomatic but no reference. Some people are showing a chart out of England showing 26 deaths amongst fully vaxxed with Delta but no idea if that is true or not.

Fascinating sifting through this stuff and I get smarter and then dumber depending. What I really want to know is how careful to be moving forward for my family...which includes an 11 yo unvaxxed. Murky waters to navigate ahead.

[old goat]

The message is that the closer you get to the raw data the closer you are to the truth. The closest most of us can get to the raw data is published peer-reviewed articles in reputable journals, although in a pandemic that may be too slow--hence preprints.

And even then . . . https://www.newyorker.com/science/el...mage-detective

[PB]

Oh Jeebus; no worm cans, please. Living in the same house with Bik must be ...... interesting.

[old goat]

At least you wouldn't be tripping over her clothes on the floor.

[bodywhomper]

What I really want to know is how careful to be moving forward for my family...which includes an 11 yo unvaxxed. Murky waters to navigate ahead.

We’re in the exact same situation at our home. I posted this in another thread. It’s useful and includes an infographic: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...ted-activities

[LeeLau]

The message is that the closer you get to the raw data the closer you are to the truth. The closest most of us can get to the raw data is published peer-reviewed articles in reputable journals, although in a pandemic that may be too slow--hence preprints.

And even then . . . https://www.newyorker.com/science/el...mage-detective

That was fascinating

[huckbucket]

Guess who is suing her?

https://medium.com/beingwell/dr-elis...a-a2e73b1a554f

Yup. This fucking jackass.

[old goat]

Guess who is suing her?

https://medium.com/beingwell/dr-elis...a-a2e73b1a554f

Yup. This fucking jackass.

Wait, isn't that the same guy who used to be Trump's doctor?

[Thaleia]

Toronto just stuck a world wide record breaking 26,771 people at a single pop up today.

[bennymac]

WTF is going on with his chin?!

[paulster2626]

Toronto just stuck a world wide record breaking 26,771 people at a single pop up today.

Apparently all spots were booked up in 3-4 hours, too. Demand is still very high.

[MultiVerse]

Re the breakthrough rate discussion, a lot of the reporting looks like base-rate fallacy. It's obvious when you think about it, but counterintuitive at first glance: as a society becomes more fully vaccinated you should expect more stories about fully vaccinated adults becoming infected.

Attachment 378184

As the infographic above shows, this does not mean vaccines are ineffective. In fact, if we get to a point where most infections are happening among fully vaccinated individuals then depending on the circumstance that would be a good thing.

[Jacques Strap]

closer you get to the raw data the closer you are to the truth

I agree with you that many journals need to improve their peer review process, but I don't think it would do most of us any good to get any closer than a peer-reviewed publication.

The closer a person gets to the truth, the less able they are to interpret it. Even scientists aren't able to understand raw data from outside their training. Ask a cell biologist to make heads or tails of a ellipsometry readout, or judge the quality of an experiment's NMR methodology, for instance.

I wish endeavors seeking to reproduce published experiments from other labs weren't so scoffed at by the scientific community and funding organizations. Validating results is as important as it is unsexy.