To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[Choss Jonger, Sr.]

Re: your catfishing question of the day....no one says masking or vaccination alone are perfect. This is not like abstinence (the only 100% method is to not dip the wick). So - unless I guess if one abstains from thinking it through - the Catfishfucker QotD is beyond obtuse....

Speaking of which, MTT, do you realize that you have solved your own query...? A single miscarriage anecdote, which may or may not be attributable to the vax administration, is just that, a random isolated statistically insignificant event with no real constraints on causation....so when you start hyperventilating about “the fact” (again, is this substantiated FACT or is it “alterna-fact”?) that “multiple twitter accounts were “blocked”” (I suspect that you mean to say deactivated or paused), it is really hard to muster the energy to engage with you (witness the overall nonresponse). You are not too dumb to figure this out, but you refuse to check out other news sources or - gasp - watch both extrema of the (televised) news spectrum and then make up your mind from there. Trust me, watching the extrema on both sides is extremely amusing and strangely informative (you just have to look into the shadows/voidspace left by each side).

[GoldMember]

Ok so the vaccines don’t really work but as soon as we vaccinate more people we can go back to normal?

Reading comprehension and critical thinking aren't your friends, are they....

[riser4]

Cuntfish ate a lot of paint chips as a child.

[teledad]

CDC says no need to quarantine for exposure to COVID after vaccination (with some conditions):
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-1...derations.html

[old goat]

Catfish--this has been explained many times in many threads. Gold Member pretty much explained it.
Let me try it another way, on the off chance that you actually want to know and aren't trolling. Just read the next paragraph--the rest is just blabbering.

Vaccines work. They don't work perfectly. They work to protect the recipient from being harmed by virus that gets into them. They may or may not prevent other people from getting infected from the recipient--the jury is still out on that. If you get the vaccine you have to wear a mask and socially distance to protect other people, not so much to protect yourself, just like before the vaccine.

When can we stop masking and distancing. No one knows. My guess that assuming we aren't overtaken by a completely vaccine resistant variant case numbers will continue to fall, people will gradually start accepting other people not masking and distancing, there will still be some cases and some deaths but maybe we'll have better drugs to treat the cases, and the return to normal will be gradual. I don't expect Fauci to come out one day and say the "the pandemic is over, you can stop wearing your masks". Or if he does the great majority of people will have already stopped.

If you want to know a little more of the science read on. The virus enters the body through the nose and mouth and can replicate there to some degree. At least at first there are no antibodies against the virus in the nose and mouth. Eventually the virus spreads from the nose and mouth into the lungs and into the blood and throughout the body. Vaccines are injected into the muscle and are absorbed into the blood where they encounter the immune cells that make antibodies. Those antibodies are in the blood and kill the virus as it tries to spread through the body. Whether there is antibody in the nose and mouth and how much there is is not known at present. It may be that the antibodies produced by the vaccine will kill any virus the person inhales, or it may be that the virus can live in the nose and mouth in limited amounts and be spread to other people. All this is grossly oversimplified.

The other reason to mask and distance is that undoubtedly there will be people who haven't been vaccinated or who refuse vaccination who will try to claim they are vaccinated and don't need to wear a mask etc. Wearing a mask and distancing avoids the inevitable social conflict that arises when some people wear masks and some people don't. We already have enough social conflict, don't we?

Or maybe you prefer more conflict. I understand people who have beliefs and principles that they feel the need to defend when they have to. I've never understood people who actively seek out conflict. It seems to me to be a really shitty way to go about life and usually means that the person has been the victim of serious trauma that they need to pass on to other people in order to relieve their own pain. Sound familiar?

[neufox47]

The real sad thing is that late this summer when daily cases are down to the thousands, deaths are minimal, there are going to be dumb fucks who claim it isn’t due to the vaccine.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[BC.]

Catfish--this has been explained many times in many threads. Gold Member pretty much explained it.
Let me try it another way, on the off chance that you actually want to know and aren't trolling. Just read the next paragraph--the rest is just blabbering.

Vaccines work. They don't work perfectly. They work to protect the recipient from being harmed by virus that gets into them. They may or may not prevent other people from getting infected from the recipient--the jury is still out on that. If you get the vaccine you have to wear a mask and socially distance to protect other people, not so much to protect yourself, just like before the vaccine.

When can we stop masking and distancing. No one knows. My guess that assuming we aren't overtaken by a completely vaccine resistant variant case numbers will continue to fall, people will gradually start accepting other people not masking and distancing, there will still be some cases and some deaths but maybe we'll have better drugs to treat the cases, and the return to normal will be gradual. I don't expect Fauci to come out one day and say the "the pandemic is over, you can stop wearing your masks". Or if he does the great majority of people will have already stopped.

If you want to know a little more of the science read on. The virus enters the body through the nose and mouth and can replicate there to some degree. At least at first there are no antibodies against the virus in the nose and mouth. Eventually the virus spreads from the nose and mouth into the lungs and into the blood and throughout the body. Vaccines are injected into the muscle and are absorbed into the blood where they encounter the immune cells that make antibodies. Those antibodies are in the blood and kill the virus as it tries to spread through the body. Whether there is antibody in the nose and mouth and how much there is is not known at present. It may be that the antibodies produced by the vaccine will kill any virus the person inhales, or it may be that the virus can live in the nose and mouth in limited amounts and be spread to other people. All this is grossly oversimplified.

The other reason to mask and distance is that undoubtedly there will be people who haven't been vaccinated or who refuse vaccination who will try to claim they are vaccinated and don't need to wear a mask etc. Wearing a mask and distancing avoids the inevitable social conflict that arises when some people wear masks and some people don't. We already have enough social conflict, don't we?

Or maybe you prefer more conflict. I understand people who have beliefs and principles that they feel the need to defend when they have to. I've never understood people who actively seek out conflict. It seems to me to be a really shitty way to go about life and usually means that the person has been the victim of serious trauma that they need to pass on to other people in order to relieve their own pain. Sound familiar?

Damn.....well said.

[MTT]

Re: your catfishing question of the day....no one says masking or vaccination alone are perfect. This is not like abstinence (the only 100% method is to not dip the wick). So - unless I guess if one abstains from thinking it through - the Catfishfucker QotD is beyond obtuse....

Speaking of which, MTT, do you realize that you have solved your own query...? A single miscarriage anecdote, which may or may not be attributable to the vax administration, is just that, a random isolated statistically insignificant event with no real constraints on causation....so when you start hyperventilating about “the fact” (again, is this substantiated FACT or is it “alterna-fact”?) that “multiple twitter accounts were “blocked”” (I suspect that you mean to say deactivated or paused), it is really hard to muster the energy to engage with you (witness the overall nonresponse). You are not too dumb to figure this out, but you refuse to check out other news sources or - gasp - watch both extrema of the (televised) news spectrum and then make up your mind from there. Trust me, watching the extrema on both sides is extremely amusing and strangely informative (you just have to look into the shadows/voidspace left by each side).

I guess you told me.
Sorry to have invaded your echo chamber.

[smmokan]

The real sad thing is that late this summer when daily cases are down to the thousands, deaths are minimal, there are going to be dumb fucks who claim it isn’t due to the vaccine.

But other than their respective Facebook and Twitter "friends", does anyone really care what those dumb fucks think?

[bodywhomper]

But other than their respective Facebook and Twitter "friends", does anyone really care what those dumb fucks think?

Jha atal (sp?) has stated that it’ll matter, as he expects areas of the country where total vax % will be low because of anti-vax. In California, there are lawmaker that support anti-vax (even if they vax) strictly for political reasons.

[GoldMember]

This is interesting. Looking at the Global one week average new cases, the world peaked in new cases 36 days ago. Interestingly in looking at countries with more than 100M population, so did the U.S., Europe, with Brazil 35 days ago. It seems odd that three different continents separated by oceans would peak on the same day. All have been in constant decline of new cases since January 11. Anyone have any explanation for this? I'm guessing it's something to do with the method of data collection at those locations or how it's being compiled. Seems too coincidental.



http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

[XXX-er]

but muh president didnt mask or acknowledge covid or do any planning or git a vax shot or die

or get relected cometo think of it

[Danno]

This is interesting. Looking at the Global one week average new cases, the world peaked in new cases 36 days ago. Interestingly in looking at countries with more than 100M population, so did the U.S., Europe, with Brazil 35 days ago. It seems odd that three different continents separated by oceans would peak on the same day. All have been in constant decline of new cases since January 11. Anyone have any explanation for this? I'm guessing it's something to do with the method of data collection at those locations or how it's being compiled. Seems too coincidental.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Christmas?

[funkendrenchman]

These numbers are damn impressive. Let's hope this holds.

"Data from more than 600,000 vaccinated Israelis shows the Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective, with only 21 vaccinated people ending up in the hospital with Covid-19, according to a press release from Maccabi Healthcare Services, Israel’s second largest healthcare provider.

The findings, while preliminary, suggest the vaccine remains remarkably effective in the real world and not just in the clinical trials conducted last year by Pfizer and BioNTech.

Maccabi looked at data from about 602,000 of its members who were at least one week past their second dose of the vaccine. Among them, 7 were hospitalized with severe symptoms, 3 with moderate symptoms, and 11 with mild symptoms.

All of the hospitalized members were over age 50, and half of them had a chronic health condition, such as morbid obesity, according to Ido Hadari, a Maccabi spokesman.

Among the 602,000 vaccinated members, tests showed that 608 became infected with Covid-19. Maccabi did not routinely test members, but of the 608, 35% chose to get tested because they had symptoms of Covid-19 and 65% chose to get tested because they had been exposed to someone with the virus.

Maccabi compared that infection rate with a group of 528,000 members who had not yet received the vaccine. In this control group, 20,621 people, or nearly 4%, were identified as having Covid-19.

Maccabi’s findings are similar to data released earlier this week by Israel’s largest healthcare provider, which found the vaccine was 94% effective. Pfizer’s clinical trial showed about the same efficacy."

[bennymac]

I guess you told me.
Sorry to have invaded your echo chamber.

The irony

[neufox47]

These numbers are damn impressive. Let's hope this holds.

"Data from more than 600,000 vaccinated Israelis shows the Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective, with only 21 vaccinated people ending up in the hospital with Covid-19, according to a press release from Maccabi Healthcare Services, Israel’s second largest healthcare provider.

The findings, while preliminary, suggest the vaccine remains remarkably effective in the real world and not just in the clinical trials conducted last year by Pfizer and BioNTech.

Maccabi looked at data from about 602,000 of its members who were at least one week past their second dose of the vaccine. Among them, 7 were hospitalized with severe symptoms, 3 with moderate symptoms, and 11 with mild symptoms.

All of the hospitalized members were over age 50, and half of them had a chronic health condition, such as morbid obesity, according to Ido Hadari, a Maccabi spokesman.

Among the 602,000 vaccinated members, tests showed that 608 became infected with Covid-19. Maccabi did not routinely test members, but of the 608, 35% chose to get tested because they had symptoms of Covid-19 and 65% chose to get tested because they had been exposed to someone with the virus.

Maccabi compared that infection rate with a group of 528,000 members who had not yet received the vaccine. In this control group, 20,621 people, or nearly 4%, were identified as having Covid-19.

Maccabi’s findings are similar to data released earlier this week by Israel’s largest healthcare provider, which found the vaccine was 94% effective. Pfizer’s clinical trial showed about the same efficacy."

Science! Fuck yea!

[GoldMember]

Christmas?

Yeah, maybe in combination with New Year's. Didn't think of that but it definitely coincides with the holidays. For them to peak on the same day makes sense, I suppose, since the virus acts on a pretty specific timeline, no matter where it is. That's likely the cause. Just kind of struck me as odd.

[MultiVerse]

This is interesting. Looking at the Global one week average new cases, the world peaked in new cases 36 days ago. Interestingly in looking at countries with more than 100M population, so did the U.S., Europe, with Brazil 35 days ago. It seems odd that three different continents separated by oceans would peak on the same day. All have been in constant decline of new cases since January 11. Anyone have any explanation for this? I'm guessing it's something to do with the method of data collection at those locations or how it's being compiled. Seems too coincidental.

TL;DR: The numbers are relative to a peak, there's still lots of new cases. The peak occurred because with each holiday (Halloween, Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas, and New Year’s) more people mixed together causing cases to explode. It's the old exponential growth story. On average, an infected person infects between 2-and-5 other people until there's a conflagration. Now with holiday season behind us and vaccines in front of us people at the margins are behaving more cautiously.


The longer version:

Even though caseloads and hospitalizations are falling the numbers are relative to a peak. There's still a lots of area under the curve, still lots of infection and hospitalizations. There are probably several reasons for the trend ranked in order of significance:

1 - A post holiday plateau
2 - More caution due to the imminent availability of vaccines
3 - Awareness of mutated variant further reinforcing caution
4 - Population-level immunity

Cumulative COVID deaths still remain roughly proportional to seroprevalence. By most estimates the death rate is roughly .5% and the U.S. seroprevalence number is roughly +100,000,000.

If 60% are essentially immune by behaving cautiously, while the other 40% have lots of contacts. And if 80% of that high-contact group has been infected — a third (~33%) of the population has seroprevalence — there might be some herd effects among high contact groups but not the community as a whole.

The good news is the high-mixing group has a higher rate of acquired immunity while the cautious group will soon have a high rate of vaccinated immunity.

[GoldMember]

^^Yes, makes sense. I just hadn't seen a global correlation before but that's because we all tend to have different holidays. But with Christmas and New Year's being celebrated on the same days in the areas noted, it stood out for its sameness. I just didn't think of it when I posted that.

[glademaster]

It's also become harder to get tested in the US in the last few weeks.

[bodywhomper]

It's also become harder to get tested in the US in the last few weeks.

Friend in Tallahassee said that last week was the easiest it’s been for him. In and out in less than 5 minutes. Antigen test results received in less than 30 minutes. PCR still takes a few days.

[funkendrenchman]

It's also become harder to get tested in the US in the last few weeks.

The number of tests hasn't changed that much.

Positivity has gone from 13% to 5%.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

Interesting bit of data on Pitkin County. At the peak there were over 1000 people in quarantine, Today, there are 32.

[GoldMember]

The number of tests hasn't changed that much.

Positivity has gone from 13% to 5%.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

Interesting bit of data on Pitkin County. At the peak there were over 1000 people in quarantine, Today, there are 32.

Fewer people feeling the need to get tested = Fewer tests administered. That's likely why there's a bit of reduction in testing, not because it's harder to get tested. With that said, still a lot of tests being given but the positivity rate, as you noted, is falling substantially. That's good news. In our area, getting tested is easy but I don't want that swab reaching back and touching my brain if I don't feel there's a reason to get tested.

[stuckathuntermtn]

Please don't feed the trolls.

[BC.]

Must be a distribution issue here in NEPA......whole family got emails/calls today that our 2nd shots are all cancelled tomorrow (Saturday)

Mine/wife...and most WASD teachers all got email that 2nd shot cancelled....

Dad...78...got cancellation call.

Mom..77...also got cancellation call...but at least they rescheduled for next Friday.

Process has been surprisingly smooth for all of us so far....so it was bound to have a few delays along the way. We are all just lucky we had the opportunity to get the vaccine so early back in January/23.....