WASATCH STOKE, CONDITIONS, OBSERVATIONS and ASSORTED DRIVAL 20-21

[PaulC08]

Ditto on the responses here. Tough read. Obvious heroic acts occurred. Trying to go through in my head what that must be like. Not possible. Just flat out terrifying. I’m sure lessons to be learned, but until then, sitting by a fire, pouring a drink, and hoping the survivors/family/friends are able to find peace.


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[oldskibum]

"Someone" keeps posting the pictures of lines they are getting away with. It might be time to keep our Gnarliness to ourselves. It can't be helping.

[JTG4]

possibly a very different outcome if that skinner was being used.

Same here, no judgements being offered, and we have no idea what anyone would have done out there independently.

That said, no idea if party B had a planned skinning route....but man, when you get there it’s just easy to follow a skin track that someone already set.

There is lesson there though, and something guides I’ve been with have done.....don’t follow a skin track you weren’t planning on or aren’t entirely comfortable with just because it’s there.

[mall walker]

in a storm or in fresh snow, even in a place you know like the back of your hand, putting in the regular skinner can be harder than it sounds. even if you’ve walked up it 50 or 100 times. and if you break trail up, as one group did, and then find a set skinner after 2500’ of climbing... man my heart breaks thinking about these kids. Easily could be me instead. Shit if I didn’t just have a daughter and wasn’t working 60+ hrs a week... both sides of west porter pass, raymond glade... all my spots have gone to the ground. And I would’ve been alone. even the day it happened, being 200 miles away, I was thinking “maybe the west > main loop could be doable safely”

major reset needed for me anyway.

[altacoup]

Despite the absolute tragedy. I’m glad to read that some people are seeing a need for a mental reset. It’s only fun if you come home.


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[baron]

Brutal story to read... one thing we can take from this is the fact that the most prepared mountaineers don't have time to dig out more than a couple people alive. Good reason to keep groups small.

Best wishes to survivors .. and victims families

[NAKsloChinoMalo]

Same as everybody else, it's a tough read. But at the same time very educational for me. Thank you UAC for the thorough write up, and more importantly the survivors sharing their account of the event. That cannot be easy.

Vibes to all family, friends, and skiing community. Am still very sad on all recent losses.

[2_1_3]

+++vibes to the Utah crew, those involved and their friends and fam. damn.

amidst the incredibly sad outcome, some amazing heroics by the survivors. the photos, topographic info, and pit profile are nothing short of terrifying. 50 cm of 3–6 mm DH? sheeeit.


A few comments:
1) Pit profile indicates a MF crust above of the failure layer. Not mentioned explicitly in the report, but was this indeed the bed surface? Given the topography, there must have been quite a warm/humid spell to get a crust on this aspect/elevation?

2) One perspective I've noticed that we often forget is long-term climatological context of state variables. SWE percent of average does not capture this, however percentiles do. 65% of average is surely bad, but looking at percentiles, one quickly realizes that for the period of record (using Thaynes Canyon as the example), since November much of the winter was near or below the 10$^{th}$ percentile. I exclaimed "Holy sheeit!" when I flipped the SNOTEL map from percent of normal to percentile after reading the initial report.

Percent of average doesn't tell you that you are in the bottom third of the distribution or the bottom tenth or a record high/low. On the day of the avalanche, Thaynes Cañon (OK ya I see Mill-D is closer, but already had Thaynes period of record downloaded) jumped from the 10th to 20th percentile. In addition, note below that for a time in mid-January, SWE was the lowest on record for the dates. Does ~60% of normal tell you that? or that you've been in the bottom half of the distribution since mid-Nov?...Not unless u haz teh stats! Green line is median SWE for each day based on 1988-2021, black is observed. Moral of the story, percentiles provide context for snowpack state that percent of normal cannot easily do. The NRCS SNOTEL map is super easy to flip back and forth. Check it out, it might provide some additional insight (or not).



3) Unfortunately, the snowpack and avalanche situation in Utah this year and in many other regions of the West has evolved into a common bad outcome scenario we wrote about here in section 4c. With big loading events on the way, and still a lot of winter to go, please be extra vigilant.


side note: tfw, major thanks for sharing your stories, wisdom and insight in these pages. truly a pleasure to read. FKNA!

again, be safe out there with the upcoming storm(s).

peace

[MakersTeleMark]

2_1_3 ... 132 posts. Name checks out.

[telefreewasatch]

"Someone" keeps posting the pictures of lines they are getting away with. It might be time to keep our Gnarliness to ourselves. It can't be helping.

Dfinn's pics? Thursday's pics were Toledo bowl and Toledo chute, looks like.
SE facing LCC. I woulda gone there that day, no old weak snow, and not much new on Wed. night.
S facing right now ftw!
One safe habit that seems to be ignored increasingly lately is to let things set a day or two, specially on S where folks think (somewhat correctly) that you don't need to wait as long as other exposures with deeper instabilities.
Amazed that there aren't more new snow rides taken from folks jumping on S facing so quickly.
Hard to judge slope angles from pics, but Dfinn appears to be conservative right now with angles when he's not on S.

Boy was the new snow touchy yesterday. Not much of a hazard on smaller slopes but super sensitive on all exposures with long running fractures. In the old days we woulda left more around within the ski area for "public education."

2_1_3 there's a pretty good discussion/critique going in the slide zone where your post oughta be.

[whyturn]

Very sad situation recently and I feel for all affected by this tragic situation

I have seen more snow movement, cracking and sliding inbounds more than any other year. It’s scary out there and hope everyone stays safe

It was good to get out yesterday with friends and reflect on our blessings. Life is too short sometimes




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[oldskibum]

Not Dfinn, and not wishing to call out a particular party. S facing and Superior can be skied all day long this season, so far... As much as we love to share the stoke, even the milder stoke shots may mislead a less experienced adventurer to go get some in the wrong place. Just suggesting a somber stoke tone after this horrendous event. Respect for everyone involved, this will inform my every BC step for a long time.

Dfinn's pics? Thursday's pics were Toledo bowl and Toledo chute, looks like.
SE facing LCC. I woulda gone there that day, no old weak snow, and not much new on Wed. night.
S facing right now ftw!
One safe habit that seems to be ignored increasingly lately is to let things set a day or two, specially on S where folks think (somewhat correctly) that you don't need to wait as long as other exposures with deeper instabilities.
Amazed that there aren't more new snow rides taken from folks jumping on S facing so quickly.
Hard to judge slope angles from pics, but Dfinn appears to be conservative right now with angles when he's not on S.

Boy was the new snow touchy yesterday. Not much of a hazard on smaller slopes but super sensitive on all exposures with long running fractures. In the old days we woulda left more around within the ski area for "public education."

2_1_3 there's a pretty good discussion/critique going in the slide zone where your post oughta be.

[Dantheman]

That report is going to haunt me for a long, long time. It's hard to imagine how the survivors move on with their lives after that. I hope they have some good people in their lives they can lean on right now. Has a GFM anything been set up for them?

[wasatch_carpetbagger]

That report is going to haunt me for a long, long time. It's hard to imagine how the survivors move on with their lives after that. I hope they have some good people in their lives they can lean on right now. Has a GFM anything been set up for them?

Yes - Fundraiser by Utah is Rad : Wilson Glades Millcreek, UT Avalanche Families (gofundme.com)

[gimpy]

Gut wrenching read....... ++++ vibes to the Utah tribe
Many a time I’ve followed a skinner knowing full well that it wasn’t going the correct/normal/safe way simply due to laziness and complacency....... I suspect all who read this report will think twice when it that situation As I know I will

[happytimefunbox]

I cried man tears reading that report.

This fucking season has killed what little mojo I had left to ski. No desire to fuck with the canyon shitshow. No desire to tour and die or get in the conga line for the couple of low angle spots I know. The constant brown valley rainy gloom and doom. If it dont kill us it makes us stronger?



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[beaterdit]

I cried man tears reading that report.

This fucking season has killed what little mojo I had left to ski. No desire to fuck with the canyon shitshow. No desire to tour and die or get in the conga line for the couple of low angle spots I know. The constant brown valley rainy gloom and doom. If it dont kill us it makes us stronger?



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Sums it up pretty well for me. My risk tolerance has been declining rapidly and now it’s bottomed out. My motivation for dealing with the crowds has been at an all time low even pre-covid. Getting crushed physically, mentally, emotionally at work for the last nine moths doesn’t help my motivation for any of it.

Losing a friend in this event on top of all of it. Time to go lay on a beach somewhere, I’m fuckin done.

Echo all the other thoughts. The report was gut wrenching. Putting myself in the shoes of the survivors, god damn. The kids were obviously very well prepared to handle themselves in that situation and handle themselves they did. I sincerely hope they really know what heroes they are saving those two lives. Their competence and effort are nearly super-human. I know that knowledge probably doesn’t help them much right now but I hope it helps them find peace with it all sooner than later.

Holy shit, crying.

[altacoup]

^^^
Vibes man. If you only ski BC and need a resort day hit me up. I can comp you an Alta pass

[Dshack89]

Alta felt like it is supposed to this afternoon. Free refills, low crowds, strong vibes from the faithful. So good!

Overnight road closure. Not sure I have the patience to deal with getting up the road in the AM. Get after it!!

[BobMc]

Yup, tonight till 8am, definitely dimmed my enthusiasm. No more beating the closure, seen this coming. I predict BCC is mobbed, may use an Ikon day and hit up Bambi Basin.

[Lone Star]

^^^
Vibes man. If you only ski BC and need a resort day hit me up. I can comp you an Alta pass

I'll add a GMD pie

[dfinn]

I thought I was getting called out there for a sec but I’ve been keeping it quite chill.

Spent the day having a blast on 25 degree slopes. I have a feeling I’ll be on the pow surfer a lot this year and am pretty excited for that. Highly recommend it if anyone is looking for a way to try something different and make super mellow slopes exciting. If anyone wants to borrow mine to try it you’re more than welcome to.

[Slowtimer14]

"Lodi dodi, we likes to party, We don't cause trouble, we don't bother nobody"- - Snoop

Keeping it under 30 deg and off N-NE faces. Condolences to the victims and all those involved. Shit's real. It's a time of reflection to ask oneself...is this risk worth it?

[jmedslc]

Yup, tonight till 8am, definitely dimmed my enthusiasm. No more beating the closure, seen this coming. I predict BCC is mobbed, may use an Ikon day and hit up Bambi Basin.

Ok I’ll come out and say that we don’t call it “Residents day” for nothing.

[mar123]

nothing to be said that hasn't already been said, condolences.

surf squad.

putting the fun back in mellow.


good times dfinn