Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[SkiCougar]

beating you all to the punchline, even i, skicougar; can see that; being able to read it is a different story.

Attachment 334974


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[PB]

The bright red and perfectly straight line is funny. Interesting thing about NYC would be if the horror of the first wave brought about enough change to actually get R0<1 at only 20% antibodies. The argument against low percentage herd immunity seems to be, at least in part, that the same society that gets 20% infected is the one that needs 60% to achieve R0<1. Could NY be the exception?

Doesn't the concern about rapidly fading antibody titers also impact the possibility of "natural" herd immunity? I know we haven't yet determined how much immune system memory (B cells? T cells?) remains, but if it turns out that our immune response doesn't support a vaccine, seems like herd immunity goes out the window too. I will, however, defer to those more knowledgeable than I.

[Tri-Ungulate]

Why does underwear keep coming into the conversation about masks?

First it was the meme about underwear not keeping farts in so therefore masks can’t keep the virus in. Then there was that skanky woman in FL who just had to let the world know she gets yeast infections if she wears underwear so she doesn’t and therefore would not be wearing a mask either (Things have got to breath!) and now this guy who assumes people are filthy dirty beasts raised by mothers who never told them you need to wash your underwear. WTF?

[Ted Striker]

From the Union Bulletin, W2

Rags worn as masks are like petri dishes

Hey, all you self-righteous people giving me the stink-eye for not wearing a mask, think about this: That rag you’re wearing on your face has probably become a germy petri dish.

George Washington was an alien. Probably.

[Grizz]

1. Start a pandemic.
2. ????
3. Profit.

[glademaster]

Is is contamination from the Hanford Site that makes people in eastern and central Washington such a special breed of stupid?

[jono]

Doesn't the concern about rapidly fading antibody titers also impact the possibility of "natural" herd immunity? I know we haven't yet determined how much immune system memory (B cells? T cells?) remains, but if it turns out that our immune response doesn't support a vaccine, seems like herd immunity goes out the window too. I will, however, defer to those more knowledgeable than I.

With the caveat that no one is 100% certain, I feel like this has been pretty adequately addressed by people who know in this thread. My layman's takeaway was that antibodies are made when they're needed, so falling numbers of them does not necessarily indicate a loss of immunity. And conversely, if immunity is really brief, where are the examples of people being infected again? There should be more than one or two by now--the number of infected and recovered is a very large sample and that's still an extreme outlier. If immunity is not truly lasting, hopefully vaccines make it moot before we find that out.

[Core Shot]

I’m sure this will cause frothing Santorum here

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...sed-sound-data

Was at home desperate today. Fuckers with masks wouldn’t distance.
Distance and hand washing is way more important than fear masks

=====
Dr. Brosseau is a national expert on respiratory protection and infectious diseases and professor (retired), University of Illinois at Chicago.
Dr. Sietsema is also an expert on respiratory protection and an assistant professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

_____________________________________

Editor’s Note: The authors added the following statement on Jul 16.

The authors and CIDRAP have received requests in recent weeks to remove this article from the CIDRAP website. Reasons have included: (1) we don’t truly know that cloth masks (face coverings) are not effective, since the data are so limited, (2) wearing a cloth mask or face covering is better than doing nothing, (3) the article is being used by individuals and groups to support non-mask wearing where mandated and (4) there are now many modeling studies suggesting that cloth masks or face coverings could be effective at flattening the curve and preventing many cases of infection.

If the data are limited, how can we say face coverings are likely not effective?
We agree that the data supporting the effectiveness of a cloth mask or face covering are very limited. We do, however, have data from laboratory studies that indicate cloth masks or face coverings offer very low filter collection efficiency for the smaller inhalable particles we believe are largely responsible for transmission, particularly from pre- or asymptomatic individuals who are not coughing or sneezing. At the time we wrote this article, we were unable to locate any well-performed studies of cloth mask leakage when worn on the face—either inward or outward leakage. As far as we know, these data are still lacking.

The guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for face coverings initially did not have any citations for studies of cloth material efficiency or fit, but some references have been added since the guidelines were first posted. We reviewed these and found that many employ very crude, non-standardized methods (Anfinrud 2020, Davies 2013, Konda 2020, Aydin 2020, Ma 2020) or are not relevant to cloth face coverings because they evaluate respirators or surgical masks (Leung 2020, Johnson 2009, Green 2012).

The CDC failed to reference the National Academies of Sciences Rapid Expert Consultation on the Effectiveness of Fabric Masks for the COVID-19 Pandemic (NAS 2020), which concludes, “The evidence from…laboratory filtration studies suggests that such fabric masks may reduce the transmission of larger respiratory droplets. There is little evidence regarding the transmission of small aerosolized particulates of the size potentially exhaled by asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals with COVID-19.” As well, the CDC neglected to mention a well-done study of cloth material filter performance by Rengasamy et al (2014), which we reviewed in our article.

Is wearing a face covering better than nothing?
Wearing a cloth mask or face covering could be better than doing nothing, but we simply don’t know at this point. We have observed an evolution in the messaging around cloth masks, from an initial understanding that they should not be seen as a replacement for physical distancing to more recent messaging that suggests cloth masks are equivalent to physical distancing. And while everyone appears to understand that this messaging suggests that a cloth mask is appropriate only for source control (ie, to protect others from infection), recent CDC and other guidance recommending their use by workers seems to imply that they offer some type of personal protection.

[The AD]

Per the New York Times:
on July 17
New Cases 70,831 (39% increase in 14 days)
Deaths 902 (47% increase in 14 days)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-us-cases.html

[SkiCougar]

https://lebronwire.usatoday.com/2020...-disney-world/

"Dwight Howard says he was reported for not wearing a mask at Disney World"

thought this story was good.

nba player howard was reported for not wearing a mask in the bubble.

now Dwight says, he has not left the bubblem they were tested upon entry and tested regularly in the bubble and no one gets in or out without being test. it's as close to a vaccum as you can get imo and I side with Dwight, masks should be out given all of that and they are athleetes and masks can inhibit their training, getting good air to rehab, etc.

but as I am a know nothing right winger, I wondered if the tgr board agrees.

[The AD]

My thoughts are that he should follow the rules. If my employer tells me I need to wear a mask then I wear a mask. The goal is to ensure uninfected players remain uninfected. Masks do not "inhibit getting good air." Quit getting your information from morans.

[riser4]

I’m sure this will cause frothing Santorum here

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...sed-sound-data

Was at home desperate today. Fuckers with masks wouldn’t distance.
Distance and hand washing is way more important than fear masks

=====
Dr. Brosseau is a national expert on respiratory protection and infectious diseases and professor (retired), University of Illinois at Chicago.
Dr. Sietsema is also an expert on respiratory protection and an assistant professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

_____________________________________

Editor’s Note: The authors added the following statement on Jul 16.

The authors and CIDRAP have received requests in recent weeks to remove this article from the CIDRAP website. Reasons have included: (1) we don’t truly know that cloth masks (face coverings) are not effective, since the data are so limited, (2) wearing a cloth mask or face covering is better than doing nothing, (3) the article is being used by individuals and groups to support non-mask wearing where mandated and (4) there are now many modeling studies suggesting that cloth masks or face coverings could be effective at flattening the curve and preventing many cases of infection.

If the data are limited, how can we say face coverings are likely not effective?
We agree that the data supporting the effectiveness of a cloth mask or face covering are very limited. We do, however, have data from laboratory studies that indicate cloth masks or face coverings offer very low filter collection efficiency for the smaller inhalable particles we believe are largely responsible for transmission, particularly from pre- or asymptomatic individuals who are not coughing or sneezing. At the time we wrote this article, we were unable to locate any well-performed studies of cloth mask leakage when worn on the face—either inward or outward leakage. As far as we know, these data are still lacking.

The guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for face coverings initially did not have any citations for studies of cloth material efficiency or fit, but some references have been added since the guidelines were first posted. We reviewed these and found that many employ very crude, non-standardized methods (Anfinrud 2020, Davies 2013, Konda 2020, Aydin 2020, Ma 2020) or are not relevant to cloth face coverings because they evaluate respirators or surgical masks (Leung 2020, Johnson 2009, Green 2012).

The CDC failed to reference the National Academies of Sciences Rapid Expert Consultation on the Effectiveness of Fabric Masks for the COVID-19 Pandemic (NAS 2020), which concludes, “The evidence from…laboratory filtration studies suggests that such fabric masks may reduce the transmission of larger respiratory droplets. There is little evidence regarding the transmission of small aerosolized particulates of the size potentially exhaled by asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals with COVID-19.” As well, the CDC neglected to mention a well-done study of cloth material filter performance by Rengasamy et al (2014), which we reviewed in our article.

Is wearing a face covering better than nothing?
Wearing a cloth mask or face covering could be better than doing nothing, but we simply don’t know at this point. We have observed an evolution in the messaging around cloth masks, from an initial understanding that they should not be seen as a replacement for physical distancing to more recent messaging that suggests cloth masks are equivalent to physical distancing. And while everyone appears to understand that this messaging suggests that a cloth mask is appropriate only for source control (ie, to protect others from infection), recent CDC and other guidance recommending their use by workers seems to imply that they offer some type of personal protection.

So do all three and that's even better. Mask+SD+hand hygiene. Duh!

[SkiNebraski]

Anti science vaccine kooks know no political side.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/h...gtype=Homepage

[ncskier]

So with all these stores mandating masks, what if there is no down tick in cases in 2-3 weeks. Freak out time?
I’ve been all over NC and SC this week and masks are 9-1 in mask wearing.
Hopefully it works


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[LongShortLong]

I’m sure this will cause frothing Santorum here

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...sed-sound-data

Was at home desperate today. Fuckers with masks wouldn’t distance.
Distance and hand washing is way more important than fear masks

=====
Dr. Brosseau is a national expert on respiratory protection and infectious diseases and professor (retired), University of Illinois at Chicago.
Dr. Sietsema is also an expert on respiratory protection and an assistant professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

As for preventing the covids, I agree 100% with the authors that distancing is our best countermeasure. Wearing a mask to a party is fail like wearing armor to a gun fight, best not to go at all.

Home desperate likely offers curbside/delivery, Lowes does, or try a local merchant. The clingy mask breathers are easily avoided. I've been in about one store a month since this started (wearing a mask, and avoiding people inside, too). I've suffered no shortage of food or goods. Would be nice to have dinner with friends.

What is frothing Santorum? Is there an emo porn video of Rick Santorum I missed? By emo porn, I mean public crybabies filmed for clicks. For example, this guy complaining about oppressive government or 5G vaccines or something

[evdog]

I personally think there's a difference between dissenting opinions and racism. Racism is not a dissenting opinion.

Putting you on ignore (haven't quite gotten to the point with you just yet) is not "silencing dissenting opinions".

It is evaluating what you may have to say and deciding your not worth the effort.

Exactly. If some one can thoughtfully communicate an opinion and the reasoning behind it that is something worth listening to, as you might learn something from it.

Team trump seems incapable of anything more than regurgitating talking points, rhetoric and falsehoods. As Bunion said, not worth my time.

[Buster Highmen]

Labels and blame.

[LongShortLong]

So with all these stores mandating masks, what if there is no down tick in cases in 2-3 weeks. Freak out time?
I’ve been all over NC and SC this week and masks are 9-1 in mask wearing.
Hopefully it works

Shutdown time. Masks will only work if people also stop hanging out. Santa Clara County is also mask HQ, and has experienced similar growth last 2 months to other regions. Masks may be helping, but do not appear sufficient to stem Covid.

<insert image - Santa Clara County Health covid cases dashboard> image uploader no worky. Imagine the hockey stick curve with the bend up in mid-May. Cases up 15-20x in this timeframe.

eta: Testing here is down over the last 3 weeks, though cases continue to rise.

[ncskier]

Shutdown time. Masks will only work if people also stop hanging out. Santa Clara County is also mask HQ, and has experienced similar growth last 2 months to other regions.

<insert image - Santa Clara County Health covid cases dashboard> image uploader no worky. Imagine the hockey stick curve with the bend up in mid-May. Cases up 15-20x in this timeframe.

Not what I wanted to hear especially with schools trying to get back.


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[Bunion 2020]

Sorry about that reality check.

No need to worry, schools will re-open in many places and then we get yet another science experiment on the ramifications.

[Mofro261]

Work has been requiring masks to enter the building since mid-April. Confined indoor spaces where contact with multiple people requires this right now. It's not ideal but it keeps us working and so far sickness free at work.

But I walk the dogs thru the hood each morning and evening without a mask, because I'm outside and very much trying to stay 6+ft away from everyone even though the new pup is a social magnet who will take belly rubs from anyone.



Relying on SD means lockdown, mask usage isn't as effective as a complete lockdown but it's a good compromise, its just too bad compromise has been painted as weakness.

[smmokan]

Not what I wanted to hear especially with schools trying to get back.

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Schools are not going back. If they do, shit is going to hit the fan wherever they open to in-person teaching.

[KQ]

Is is contamination from the Hanford Site that makes people in eastern and central Washington such a special breed of stupid?

I dunno, eastern Oregon ain't much better. There is a FB page for the Columbia Basin that reports on regional Covid cases/deaths and a bunch or Oregonians are trying to get them to quit saying people with underlying conditions are dying OF Covid rather they want them to say people are dying WITH Covid.

So following that logic... if you have diabetes and get in a car accident and die, it's the diabetes you already had that killed you and not the car accident?

[MontuckyFried]

I dunno, eastern Oregon ain't much better. There is a FB page for the Columbia Basin that reports on regional Covid cases/deaths and a bunch or Oregonians are trying to get them to quit saying people with underlying conditions are dying OF Covid rather they want them to say people are dying WITH Covid.

I think it's rather that an argument I've heard about flu reporting in years past. If you look at stories of flu deaths, they pretty much always say "...died of flu-related complications" or that it was a "influenza-associated death."

Perhaps it's just being consistent with the way news stories (and the CDC) have pretty much always covered influenza.

I see your point, though. It's kinda like smokers dying of emphysema and not acknowledging that yes, smoking is indeed what led to their demise. Did smoking kill them per se? Well by the same reporting standards as influenza, no, but it certainly did lead to their death. I guess I can see both sides on this one.

Maybe we just need a consistent standard on how things are presented.

[KQ]

I think it's rather that an argument I've heard about flu reporting in years past. If you look at stories of flu deaths, they pretty much always say "...died of flu-related complications" or that it was a "influenza-associated death."

Perhaps it's just being consistent with the way news stories (and the CDC) have pretty much always covered influenza.

I see your point, though. It's kinda like smokers dying of emphysema and not acknowledging that yes, smoking is indeed what led to their demise. Did smoking kill them per se? Well by the same reporting standards as influenza, no, but it certainly did lead to their death. I guess I can see both sides on this one.

Maybe we just need a consistent standard on how things are presented.

I guess my point is that this is a disease that can take your life (or your loved one, neighbor, friend, coworker). I object to the idea that those who contract it and die were going to die anyway which is what I hear when people say "well they had underlying conditions."