2017/2018 ofishul orygun thread

[wyeaster]

https://traveloregon.com/things-to-d...kvm2k-ATOYea0o

[river59]

Looking for good weather and avalanche forecast resources for the region. Other than Cliff Mass’s blog and NWAC, what is out there for the PNW?

You are a soon to be hood riverite, yeah? Temira's forecast is more on the long-winded prose side of things, but it's worth a read if you are looking for a quick synopsis of likely gorge and mt hood weather scenarios.

[thefortrees]

You are a soon to be hood riverite, yeah? Temira's forecast is more on the long-winded prose side of things, but it's worth a read if you are looking for a quick synopsis of likely gorge and mt hood weather scenarios.

Nice! Dig the mtb trail status... seems like it’s kept relatively up to date

[river59]

It used to be updated daily, but the author is wrapping up grad school and has been forecasting in 2-3 day blocks lately. She also runs a local travel advisory page here that can be pretty entertaining when SHTF in winter. Winter weather can get pretty wacky in the gorge...

[mattig]

You are a soon to be hood riverite, yeah? Temira's forecast is more on the long-winded prose side of things, but it's worth a read if you are looking for a quick synopsis of likely gorge and mt hood weather scenarios.

go to windy.com. drop a pin on mt hood, click on the raindrop. Make sure ECM or nam5k is selected, and look for snowflakes. The wider the dispersion of snowflakes, the more snowsure the day will be and, in general, the drier the snow will be (some exceptions, but not common). Look at wind too, if you have a wind limit. Look at temps aloft, and if it's much above freezing at 12k ft, give or take, expect that sleety bullshit snow, or at least big wet slush.

There's absolutely nothing to be gained from long-winded prose forecasts injected with opinion and cognitive bias (surely unintentional, but even professional meteorologists do it) versus even a basic understanding of how to use a site like windy.com.

Remember, anything anyone writes or says about the weather that goes beyond simply representing the objective available data is pure conjecture. Don't feed the seersucker paradox. Look at the data for yourself. Decide whether or not to make the drive. Make a note of your observations versus the data and adjust accordingly. At the end of the day, a thorough glance at the data, and a systematic approach to deciding to ski will be the very best forecast you can get.

Oh, and remember... Long range forecasts--those outside 3-4 weeks are about 50% accurate. This may improve over the years, but it hasn't improved yet. I watch the fuck out of those things. They changed drastically 3 times last year between June and November, and then reality ended up being something entirely different.

I'm stoked to be putting my kid in MRT this year so I don't have to worry about the weather. Gotta go regardless.



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[jonesy]

[river59]

go to windy.com. drop a pin on mt hood, click on the raindrop. Make sure ECM or nam5k is selected, and look for snowflakes. The wider the dispersion of snowflakes, the more snowsure the day will be and, in general, the drier the snow will be (some exceptions, but not common). Look at wind too, if you have a wind limit. Look at temps aloft, and if it's much above freezing at 12k ft, give or take, expect that sleety bullshit snow, or at least big wet slush.

There's absolutely nothing to be gained from long-winded prose forecasts injected with opinion and cognitive bias (surely unintentional, but even professional meteorologists do it) versus even a basic understanding of how to use a site like windy.com.

Remember, anything anyone writes or says about the weather that goes beyond simply representing the objective available data is pure conjecture. Don't feed the seersucker paradox. Look at the data for yourself. Decide whether or not to make the drive. Make a note of your observations versus the data and adjust accordingly. At the end of the day, a thorough glance at the data, and a systematic approach to deciding to ski will be the very best forecast you can get.

Oh, and remember... Long range forecasts--those outside 3-4 weeks are about 50% accurate. This may improve over the years, but it hasn't improved yet. I watch the fuck out of those things. They changed drastically 3 times last year between June and November, and then reality ended up being something entirely different.

I'm stoked to be putting my kid in MRT this year so I don't have to worry about the weather. Gotta go regardless.



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The original request was for regional weather forecast resources. I am not suggesting anyone watch cable news to get their weather forecast (commentary). Her site does a pretty good job of presenting a synopsis of potential local weather scenarios as they relate to recreation (wind, mtb, snow).

I am a weather geek and like to have access to data, but I still see value in other's interpretation. The meat of a scientific report is in the raw data, but the discussion or conclusion can be interesting too if it's well executed.

When o when will we hear the first reference to the snowpocalypse or snomageddon? Soon, I hope...

[klauss]

Weather is just an excuse

[mattig]

The original request was for regional weather forecast resources. I am not suggesting anyone watch cable news to get their weather forecast (commentary). Her site does a pretty good job of presenting a synopsis of potential local weather scenarios as they relate to recreation (wind, mtb, snow).

I am a weather geek and like to have access to data, but I still see value in other's interpretation. The meat of a scientific report is in the raw data, but the discussion or conclusion can be interesting too if it's well executed.

When o when will we hear the first reference to the snowpocalypse or snomageddon? Soon, I hope...

Wrong! Obviously! Every way but my way is bad and should be shunned.

Actually, klauss's way is even better. I'm looking forward to not looking at the weather this year thanks to race team obligation.

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[::: :::]

As we roll into November, I’m seeing snowflakes in the forecast but still fairly thin forecasting

MHM is pretty green on the cams

Thanksgiving start is looking questionable

[Huskier]

As we roll into November, I’m seeing snowflakes in the forecast but still fairly thin forecasting

MHM is pretty green on the cams

Thanksgiving start is looking questionable

Very.

[wyeaster]

season passes purchased!! woohoo!!

i think this is 13 years of riding for me. forever grateful to have found it.

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[jonesy]

45 for me.

[wyeaster]

i'm happy for you and try not to wonder about how things might been

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[jonesy]

There comes a point where you wonder how many more season you have left. Enjoy the ride.

[wyeaster]

i'm already wondering and hoping i can ride with the boy through high school. hopefully more but at least that and i will probably have to have the partial knee replacement replaced with a total before then.

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[Grizz]

MHM is pretty green on the cams

Thanksgiving start is looking questionable

Nice thing about MHM is you can go from nothing on the ground to open in less than a week.

[OregonDead]

In other words they're willing to open with nothing on the ground. They're not going to miss out on the holiday $$ if even the magic carpet's turning or a WROD.

Nice thing about MHM is you can go from nothing on the ground to open in less than a week.

[OregonDead]

Forecast from Rufus this morning is a mixed bag. Looks like nothing significant for the time being but maybe precip in the long term to give us and the farmers hope. http://ovs.com/wx-cafe
Weather cafe keeps it real but is willing to explore the different potentials out there. Entertainment to go with your coffee.

[jonesy]

[::: :::]

mt hood meadows is having a contest based on the hashtag #meadowsbest

if you're on instagram, give me a like on this post:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bpm_zL3l..._web_copy_link

if you're on facebook, see if you're able to do it from there as well. i don't have facebook, but i understand they're connected somehow

thus far, it seems the shot with the most likes is 200+ and bunch have close to 100
it's not clear that they will decide based on likes, but it seems like the easy way to come to a decision

not sure a TGR bump will get me close, but hey...worth a shot!

thx!

[::: :::]

Sorry, wasn’t intentional...posted via the app...didn’t force any text color, so I have no idea why it would be anything other than typical on the OG blue

[jonesy]

The first cold multi day storm should roll in just prior to Tday. I'm going to take a shot and say Tline will be open for Thanksgiving.

[::: :::]

jonesy, you're my weather sage from now on...

#tellmewhatiwanttohear
#snowdammit

[boar2m]

The palmer cam sure looks sweet today. I am thinking about taking a day off tomorrow and huff it up for some patch skiing.

Anyone have any beta on snowpack at 7 – 9K level? I prefer to take my touring setup but I should really take the rock skis and grind ‘em up good.