MAKE TAHOE DEEP AGAIN ~ 2016/17 OFISHUL SNOW/FOOD/WHINE & STOKE THREAD

[Eastern Sierra Skier]

Rose site s closed for day?

[El Chupacabra]

Mrs. C. was stuck on Mt Rose hwy for 45 min coming down from Rose -- looks like she left just about the time they closed operations for the day. Highway is closed at the summit, and it wouldn't surprise me if there were crashes blocking the road on the way down.

She said snow was very heavy.

We're planning on going up tomorrow morning. Hoping for this storm to cool down, and deliver some lighter snow. Had to clear 3" of sludge out of the driveway in Galena Forest this morning so it wouldn't turn to ice.

[Shred Baron]

apparently KT west face slid across the creek & broke a bunch of snowmaking equipment

I was just talking about the possibility of that happening with one of the lift mechanics yesterday. He didn't seem to think it was possible. Wouldn't surprise me considering the 6 foot high debris pile on the upper part of the mountain run yesterday.

[climberevan]

Mt Rose access road closed due to slide. It appears to be the real deal out there folks. I'm glad I don't have to be on the road today.

[LightRanger]

I was just talking about the possibility of that happening with one of the lift mechanics yesterday. He didn't seem to think it was possible. Wouldn't surprise me considering the 6 foot high debris pile on the upper part of the mountain run yesterday.

I'd expect to see more of this kind of stuff over the next week too.

[Ottime]

I have reports of 7 and 5 loading at the wood. Just dug out the cabin. Hope that top pops.

[4matic]

Stagecoach fired for about 90 minutes. Pretty darn good. Streets are flooded in SLT right now.

With the wet snow and temperatures near freezing roads above 7k feet are extremely slick. Cars sliding sideways and hitting cars in stagecoach lot.

It was pummeling snow at elevation. Tomorrow be good if the lifts run.

[fk]

My 18 yo is driving up 50 today to stay at a place on SLT. It's his first real snow driving. Just read the winter storm warning. They make it sound like the apocalypse up there. Should I tell him he can't go? I was figuring the the kid needs to learn how to deal with driving in the snow sooner or later and I think I've taught him well, but not if it's crazy whiteout conditions. Now I'm a worried dad.

I would tell him to wait it out. Blizzard conditions are not a great way to start driving in the snow. Delaying 1 day won't hurt.

[colonel_forbin]

Agreed. Learning how to drive in the snow during a blizzard on the pass isn't exactly the "best idea." It's not like a learn how to do it by throwing yourself in kind of thing... There should be a break coming up to drive and get to Tahoe.

[LowPressure]

Was able to get some lift served today. Somehow this picture best summarizes the experience:

[FormerKnuckleDragger]

My 18 yo is driving up 50 today to stay at a place on SLT. It's his first real snow driving. Just read the winter storm warning. They make it sound like the apocalypse up there. Should I tell him he can't go? I was figuring the the kid needs to learn how to deal with driving in the snow sooner or later and I think I've taught him well, but not if it's crazy whiteout conditions. Now I'm a worried dad.

Depends on your kid. If you taught him well and he's got a lot of experience in snow, 18's plenty old to make good decisions while driving. It's also young enough to make some really bad ones, but you're probably the only one who really knows.

I did the Tahoe drive with my parents riding shotgun/backseat a couple times before they let me do it myself. They did the smart thing of taking me to an empty, snowy parking lot and letting me find the limits of braking, turning, accelerating, and sliding. That helped, as did seeing my older sister's boyfriend's face when he wrecked the family Suburban, took out 150 feet of guardrail, and sent a Cisco truck careening down the side of 80 just west of the summit.

If this is his first time driving in real snow...maybe not the best storm to do the drive in. But if he's done it before with you riding shotgun, then there's no substitute for real life experience. Better to drive in the daytime in a blizzard than on icy roads at night, imho.

[SchralphMacchio]

Dang sounds like the real deal already and Sunday is supposed to be even heavier! I'm on the verge of potentially cancelling weekend plans due to concern of the Spur being impassable or super risky on Sunday ...

[GiBo]

Thanks for the input.

He made it! He's had some experience. He was pretty dead set on getting up there today. I sent him up 50 and told him to just take it easy. Headed up to ski with him Friday. He's pretty proud of himself.

[SchralphMacchio]

^ thank goodness he's safe! Slide on Luther pass this morning, and CP and Spur both closed right now. Hopefully no drivers get hit by a slide on 50.

[jskierpx]

The digout of my taco this morning near Soda Springs. It was only parked for 2 days.

[AKbruin]

Skied Diamond Peak this morning and found dense, slow snow. It never rained, but we were soaked after 90 minutes.

Shoveling and snowblowing has become a Sisyphean task. I'm glad I invested in a Honda a few years ago.

I've lost track of how much snow I've cleared, but it's deeper than a fifth grader:

[LightRanger]

Word. When I was driving to and from Sugar Bowl yesterday, I thought "All right then. Soda finally looking like it's supposed to."

[GiBo]

^ thank goodness he's safe! Slide on Luther pass this morning, and CP and Spur both closed right now. Hopefully no drivers get hit by a slide on 50.

I know man, it was a nail biting morning for me, but I want the the boy getting out and into shit. Maybe not the safest way to learn, but safer than me driving my '70 VW bus to KW in similar conditions back in the 80's.

50 was closed this morning for avy control. Hopefully they have that squared away. Next week is going to be interesting...

[SchralphMacchio]

I wonder if we get one of these on Monday ...

Was nerding out offline w/ LightRanger about this ... current forecast is for the Truckee to hit 11.8' flood stage on Sunday afternoon. I'm wondering if that forecast compensates for snowmelt or not?

Jan 1997 was just shy of 15'. Since the river canal improvements I don't know what that means for Reno or the airport, but 11.8' is rated as a "Moderate" flood stage.
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydro...rev&gage=TRRN2

Middle Fork American at Foresthill is forecasted to hit an impressive 25' flood stage, somewhere between 60 and 70 kcfs! I imagine things ought to be pretty exciting at the Confluence ... never been there during a storm so I have no idea how safe/dangerous it would be to watch for trees and detritus blasting down the river ...
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydro...sto&gage=mfac1

[lepistoir]

I would tell him to wait it out. Blizzard conditions are not a great way to start driving in the snow. Delaying 1 day won't hurt.

Allow me to second that. Our 16-year-old just got his license in October which means that for the entire time he had his permit there was no snow. We've helped him, but definitely still worry about it. He is a teenager after all and a new inexperienced driver on top of that. Conditions right now are unbelievably crappy. If my kid was in your kid's situation, I would tell him to wait at least a day. I myself in the F1 50 with studded snows am going to stay off the roads for the rest of the day. Getting to work was necessary but nothing else!

[lepistoir]

Was able to get some lift served today. Somehow this picture best summarizes the experience:

Allow me to add:

[4matic]

Food distributors and their trucks hunkering down at my hotel in SLT. Snowing hard at lake level for the last couple hours.

[old goat]

Practicing skids in a parking lot should be mandatory. I learned in a shopping mall parking lot in Detroit on a Sunday, when the mall was closed, which tells you how old I am.

[Big Shirley]

That is just good old fashioned fun right there!

Skied Diamond Peak this morning and found dense, slow snow. It never rained, but we were soaked after 90 minutes.

Shoveling and snowblowing has become a Sisyphean task. I'm glad I invested in a Honda a few years ago.

I've lost track of how much snow I've cleared, but it's deeper than a fifth grader:

[2_1_3]

Was nerding out offline w/ LightRanger about this ... current forecast is for the Truckee to hit 11.8' flood stage on Sunday afternoon. I'm wondering if that forecast compensates for snowmelt or not?

Yes, the hydrologic models for flood forecasting do include snowmelt. If they didn't, they would not calibrate well enough for operational use. That said, how well they capture and represent snowmelt-derived runoff is debatable and an area of active research.

The last good flood was Dec 31-Jan 2 2005 (great was 1997, which had a return interval of 500 years by some calculations). Here's an example from Dec 30-Jan 2of how a distributed snow model (SNODAS) gets input from liquid (a) and solid states (b) and how it can represent snowmelt-derived runoff (c; note the Tahoe outline) that I made for my ISSW paper this year:

Just got off the phone with a friend at DWR, some of their models are pushing 1997 flows! With all of the subsidence since 1997 (and especially during 2012-2016), you can bet there will be some very interesting localized flooding in the Macramento Valley.

Snow has been pretty A+ the last few days, hopefully we have something left after the blitzkrieg of IVT!