MAKE TAHOE DEEP AGAIN ~ 2016/17 OFISHUL SNOW/FOOD/WHINE & STOKE THREAD

[gnarbro365]

Heavenly's webcam page is killing it...

[2_1_3]

I'm thinking historic happens with a deep base, can't see there being enough volume in a 40" or whatever we got now base

We might have ~40" of depth, but we got 10" of liquid in there. That's a lot of mass, which times 'a' means of lot F!

Under such conditions, it is plausible to expect that the D scale (which measures destructiveness in mass) for a given slide might push historic boundaries while the R scale (volume-based) may not. Of course if the runout conditions are favorable for a long path length slide (as Davenport demonstrates with the low elevation ice layer?), the R value could get cranked up as well.

A nice write up on this here:
http://www.avalanche.org/moonstone/F...ne.TAR29.3.pdf

[TahoeJ]

So considering how much rain we got over the past week - and if that didn't make it through that thick slab down to the bottom PWL - are we pretty much stuck with this layer until it just rips all of the 30+ degree faces clean over time as more weight is added? Or is there still a realistic chance for it to consolidate? If not, you'd expect the resort patrols to just bomb it all clean and start fresh... unless they're just waiting for it to go naturally and save them the trouble and explosives.

[powdork]

There's other ways for it to fix itself. New rain higher than the last rain. New snow buries the trigger points, etc.

[stanmarsh]

^ Should see rounding setup if we get more snow, right? Unless it gets unusually cold, a good meter of consolidated snowpack should be enough to keep that temp gradient below 10*C/m, and we're not too far from that.

[bobz]

Has anyone been out to know how skiable Echo Lake is lately?

[2clue]

There's other ways for it to fix itself. New rain higher than the last rain. New snow buries the trigger points, etc.

Could you explain a bit on the trigger points getting buried? I thought this was a faucet layer sitting right above the dirt in most of the northern facing bowls above 8k that had snow remaining from the storms in october? These slabs will break simply by load I assume?

^ Should see rounding setup if we get more snow, right? Unless it gets unusually cold, a good meter of consolidated snowpack should be enough to keep that temp gradient below 10*C/m, and we're not too far from that.

Well I believe the issue is that this layer sits directly above the dirt, so the embodied energy of the ground itself is keeping it warmer.

No expert here or actual avy education here, but just food for thought....

[NorCalNomad]

Hm this new snow on crust is going to be great...

From the SAC public observations "A piece of the crust sawed out of the snowpack at around 8600 ft on an E aspect."

[SchralphMacchio]

I think PD means that it's harder to realistically penetrate down to trigger points if the weak layer gets buried deeper into the pack. But that alone doesn't make the underlying structure any safer, it just means that more force is needed to load it to failure.

Only time and weather will indicate if and when north faces can come back into play. Lots of SWE will test it ... whether to failure or eventual rounding. Anyways, it's snowing again, plenty of good south facing terrain to ski, assuming the new stuff sticks to the crust

[BGnight]

^ Should see rounding setup if we get more snow, right? Unless it gets unusually cold, a good meter of consolidated snowpack should be enough to keep that temp gradient below 10*C/m, and we're not too far from that.

From what I've read, the more snow (especially warm storms in maritime climates) the better for healing depth hoar (facets). Mostly to reduce temperature gradient and the thicker snow pack make it much harder to trigger.
"More than most other weak layers, the strength of depth hoar varies quite dramatically from one location to another, depending mostly on the depth of the snowpack. Remember: thin snowpack means a weak snowpack. Thicker snowpacks insulate the cold air from the warm ground, have a small temperature gradient and thus a stronger snowpack."

I have a feeling this layer won't even be talked out on SAC in a week or so.

I got out Sunday for the first time but avoided due north terrain specifically for this reason. The E and E/NE faces were skiing great. There's plenty of safe skiing to be had. Just stay off steeper/rockier N facing shit for a bit (or dig to the bottom first) to let the snow do it's thing.

[dhklauer]

I'm bored. Watching in rain..........
Some footage from last year.......BC, West Shore, Mammoth Area and North Lake.
https://vimeo.com/192407030

[TahoeBC]

Has anyone been out to know how skiable Echo Lake is lately?

Went and checked it out today, very skiable with "Water Skis"

[B__]

Wow - doesn't even look icy below the N facing slopes. Thanks for the pic.

[TahoeBC]

Here is another one looking towards Becker

[powdork]

Wow - doesn't even look icy below the N facing slopes. Thanks for the pic.

You won't see the ice without sun. If it's below 9k it became ice. Don't snow in the trees fool you either. That's ice too.

[TahoeJ]

As per further up, yeah, I wasn't sure about that layer with more snow and cold with the proximity to the ground and whether that would make any difference.

I hope it doesn't last - and I've read Tremper and Snow Sense (a few years back and need to revisit) - but may have chosen a good year to finally get my AIARE 1 next month with Alpenglow. Jan 13-15 if anyone else here is doing the same, as some were saying several weeks back.

Regardless, never a bad thing to discuss this stuff publicly.

[TAHOEDOWN]

I'm bored. Watching in rain..........
Some footage from last year.......BC, West Shore, Mammoth Area and North Lake.
https://vimeo.com/192407030

SICK!!!

[pureshred]

Regardless, never a bad thing to discuss this stuff publicly.

Indeed. Although I haven't contributed, I've been following along closely the last few pages and have gained some great insight on the current conditions. Keep on discussing guys, I'll keep lurking

[bobz]

Went and checked it out today, very skiable with "Water Skis"

Whoa, I knew it was warm up there, but had no idea it was that bad. Thanks. And quite a lack of coverage on the south-facing side, too. Guess it's either Carson or Rose areas this weekend.

[harpo-the-skier]

I remember several Tahoe seasons in the last 20 years during which we had problematic layer in the early season that disappeared (from the avalanche equation) when rain soaked the whole snow pack. Skiing sucked during the rain event and you had to be cautious for the next several days but after that the snowpack was completely different from before the rain event. I am hoping that happens again.

[bodywhomper]

I have a feeling this layer won't even be talked out on SAC in a week or so.

i hope this is what happens.

the persistent weak layer problem last January was different than the current problem. for those that forgot, last january's problem was buried surface hoar and the avi cycle lasted jan 5 through jan 19.

[powdork]

Latest forecast by nws for the reno area does not mention snow levels even once. It does say

The most notable change in the evolution of this major
weather event is that the arrival of the cold air push appears to
be delayed a few hours, with the bulk of the cold air coming after
4 AM early Friday morning across the I-80 and US-50 corridors.

To me, this means it will be an all rain event below 9k again. I hope I'm wrong.

edit- the sacramento office has a better forecast

Snow levels will initially start above 7000 feet today, but fall
rapidly as the front passes through. By early Friday, snow levels
could drop down to 2000-4000 feet, but heavier precipitation will
be winding down. There is still some uncertainty with how snow
accumulation the mid-slopes of the northern Sierra will get, but
the pass levels will see at least a foot and likely more.

[Wobby]

I'm bored. Watching in rain..........
Some footage from last year.......BC, West Shore, Mammoth Area and North Lake.
https://vimeo.com/192407030

Nice edit! Whats the couloir around 3:00?

[dhklauer]

Nice edit! Whats the couloir around 3:00?

Pinner Couloir near convict lake.

[powdork]

LAKE TAHOE: DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 3 TO 7 FEET.

can't say i've seen a seven foot wave on tahoe. who's surfing today?