Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[montanaskier]

East Vail has been mostly bare, that is promising for that zone.

[cmsummit]

As you get older, sigh, you just wait for the pow. And all is good, and it will be.

Told myself back at the beginning of October that I'd be okay with another 6-8 weeks of Indian Summer. So far, so good!

[Name Redacted]

It's all gonna slide boys.

[rmnpsplitter]

So since there's no snow right now it'll just be game on when it comes, it'll snow nonstop all season and our snowpack will suddenly be magically safe without a deep persistent layer? Come on man, that's as asinine as saying the season is lost at this point . That layer will likely form anyways, just later in the season. We are bound to have dry periods in between storms for our bottom layers to rot. It's not like deep persistent layers are the only problem we get to deal with. And anybody saying anything negative is immediately butthurt and should be shamed? It's a weather discussion thread on a skiing forum right? Well in my view, the weather for skiing sucks ass right now. It's awesome that the biking is still good, peak bagging can still happen or whatever it is you like to do in the mountains. It's one great part of our state is there is definitely more to to do than just slide on snow and even then as Fritz and others posted there is snow out there. Seen some great looking shots from the San Juans already this year.

The consistent "don't see much in the next 2 weeks" and we need a pattern change does get kind of frustrating at times... I wouldn't take it to the levels that muchos is, saying the hurt is on and telling people on Joel's site to cancel their trips (whether he's serious or not-not cool man, people always need to come visit, we all rely on it). But early season isn't looking great. The longer we go with dry conditions and above average temps the longer it'll be before the sharks get buried and the good riding opens up. That's just the reality of what we are currently looking at. How is it butthurt to be bummed about that? Who's to say that in 3 weeks we won't get a huge dump and kick us back into gear? I'm hopeful! Just wishing it was already game on.

[grskier]

And anybody saying anything negative is immediately butthurt and should be shamed?

.

It's TGR, that's who the mass rolls


I agree with your whole post.

[capulin overdrive]

Brainfart!

[Lindahl]

Meh, storms are infrequent in Oct/Nov. If you can make it to Dec with bare ground, and Dec comes in heavy (often does), then you can have some real fun early season. Yeah, eventually the base can rot out, or other weak layers can develop, but that takes time. Two seasons ago when we had a really warm Nov, lots of aspects went bare. Dec fucking puked and towards the end, there was phenominal steep skiing to be had. One can certainly hope for the same. Of course, yeah, eventually some weak layers showed up, but there was a window of a few weeks which allowed one to ski all sorts of stuff in midwinter powder with very little risk. That was an awesome stretch. Would be fun to get that again.

[lpkdz]

I keep telling myself that I'd rather have this cock-blocking ridge now rather than in January as it's been the past few seasons, but I'm curious if it's actually a now or later situation? I don't know enough about long range patterns, etc. to really know if I should be cautiously optimistic about "getting the ridge over with now". Anybody want to enlighten me?

I'm not going to cry about the season yet for sure, but it's pretty hard to be hearing about the dreaded death ridge already, when we've spent the past few seasons going weeks without snow because of it.

[WTF is dat]

so will the back bowls be open by christmas? I'm thinking no

[The SnowShow]

Meh, storms are infrequent in Oct/Nov. If you can make it to Dec with bare ground, and Dec comes in heavy (often does), then you can have some real fun early season. Yeah, eventually the base can rot out, or other weak layers can develop, but that takes time. Two seasons ago when we had a really warm Nov, lots of aspects went bare. Dec fucking puked and towards the end, there was phenominal steep skiing to be had. One can certainly hope for the same. Of course, yeah, eventually some weak layers showed up, but there was a window of a few weeks which allowed one to ski all sorts of stuff in midwinter powder with very little risk. That was an awesome stretch. Would be fun to get that again.

I was just looking back at pics from that Nov and the mtns look just as bare as they do now, and that turned out to be a damn good season, so here's hoping...

[Like a Boss]

GFS is being a real diva showing the storm track dropping south, then moving it back up north, then dropping it south, then north. I could do without the teasing.

[Hott Butt Mud]

so will the back bowls be open by christmas? I'm thinking no

Def not. They won't have enough. Best to stick to Eldora.

[MuchosPixels]

so will the back bowls be open by christmas? I'm thinking no

Generally you need more than about 5in SWE in the snowpack and good consistent snowfall in the days leading up to the opening and cold weather. Right now there is about 0.5in SWE of Snow in the shaded aspects with a lot of bare spots. So there is a looong way to go.

In laymens terms, about 5-6 feet of snowfall.

[hatchgreenchile]

Back bowls are pretty gnar....an 80" base and you should be good to go!

Folks need to take weather a few days at a time instead of jumping to conclusions. You'll end up in the loony bin by putting stock in long term models, pattern changes, and pretty colors on charts more than a few days out. Canceling vacations every time there's a dry spell isn't recommended either.

[Crampedon]

so will the back bowls be open by christmas? I'm thinking no

I recall ( sort of) the back opening during Birds of Prey week, 3 years ago? 4?

I was keeping an eye on China and I saw they put the groomers in and one day 2 trollers dropped dragons and went straight across into the trees and down the lift line. Next day they dropped the rope and it was EMPTY. About December 7-8. All open except 22.

Lets figure what year that was and look and some snowfall charts.

Anybody have an extra brain cell to share??

[Lindahl]

That was 10/11 I think. They actually opened some of it on Thanksgiving day. I remember being pretty much the only one there - literally. On an entire 17 lift ride you'd see 2-3 people - including the ones on the lift. So awesome, but unfuckingbelievably cold. Like -20 degrees. Had to keep going into Two Elk to warm up. Still got some good frostnip.

[garuda]

weather nerd humor:

If the forecasting models were in a classroom together, the ECMWF (Euro) would be the straight-A student. The GFS would be the son of rich parents with all the pedigree and expectations but also a frustrating inability to meet those expectations — therefore always trying to copy the ECMWF’s work in order to get into a respectably college. The Canadian GEM, on the other hand, would be the ADHD student that occasionally shouted out a really good idea.

[JaytaeMoney]

That was 10/11 I think. They actually opened some of it on Thanksgiving day. I remember being pretty much the only one there - literally. On an entire 17 lift ride you'd see 2-3 people - including the ones on the lift. So awesome, but unfuckingbelievably cold. Like -20 degrees. Had to keep going into Two Elk to warm up. Still got some good frostnip.

Definitely 10/11 - so cold but the skiing was great

[The SnowShow]

So it looks like temps drop like crazy next week...does it look like they'll stay that way afterwards or is there another warming trend after?

[funkendrenchman]

So it looks like temps drop like crazy next week...does it look like they'll stay that way afterwards or is there another warming trend after?

No one knows. Guess you'll just have to wait and see.

[Like a Boss]

I recall ( sort of) the back opening during Birds of Prey week, 3 years ago? 4?

I was keeping an eye on China and I saw they put the groomers in and one day 2 trollers dropped dragons and went straight across into the trees and down the lift line. Next day they dropped the rope and it was EMPTY. About December 7-8. All open except 22.

Lets figure what year that was and look and some snowfall charts.

Anybody have an extra brain cell to share??

I remember skiing BSB early December 2008. Champagne Glade was a loose 4 feet straight down to dirt. I ate shit, lost a ski, and couldn't find it for about 45 minutes.

[bean]

So it looks like temps drop like crazy next week...does it look like they'll stay that way afterwards or is there another warming trend after?

If you want to go by the CPC (and since this is the CO Butthurt Discussion Thread, you do) everything west of the CO divide will warm back up, everything east will probably stay cool, and errebody is going to be dry as a bone. But good news, there's a chance the pattern changes to persistent butthurtly flow in two weeks.

[montanaskier]

The big cool down appears to have little impact west of the divide, it's an east storm. Some hope for the mtns late next week. It is still early and weather patterns don't stay the same forever. It was a cool wet summer for 3 or 4 months and now it's been dry and warm for 2. It'll change again at some point.

[adrenalated]

I think we can all agree that the important thing here is that this thread is now on page 666.



Satan will likely keep the butthurt flowing until we at least reach the end of this page.

[hatchgreenchile]

No doubt it will get cold. Mid 20s for highs in the Plains. Jetstream doesn't have to drift far to the west to make things interesting though...