Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[hatchgreenchile]

You know where.

Base of Keystone?

[smmokan]

Let's get this back on track... looks like 8-16" in most places with the southern areas getting 10-20". I think we'll all take that knowing some spots will get double those amounts.

[BDKeg]

Let's get this back on track... looks like 8-16" in most places with the southern areas getting 10-20". I think we'll all take that knowing some spots will get double those amounts.

negative... https://opensnow.com/state/CO

[rmnpsplitter]

I don't know, wait til he updates today...

This doesnt look too bad to me.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...er+Storm+Watch

[bean]

I don't know, wait til he updates today...

This doesnt look too bad to me.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...er+Storm+Watch

The numbers have been updated, just not the discussion. 7-16" is ok but pretty mediocre for a storm that was originally looking like March 2003. Minimal wind is nice for sure.

[bostonjohn]

I am very interested in heading to WC on Friday night-> sunday

[BDKeg]

I am very interested in heading to WC on Friday night-> sunday

was thinking about going too, but I'm afraid everybody and their brother from the front range will be heading down there this weekend.

[bostonjohn]

^^ Who knows, with all the news hype around most might stay up here. But its looking just like the type weekend I need

[RonMexico]

I don't know, wait til he updates today...

I remember when the updates would consistently come at 7:30 every day. Now 10:30 seems to be more of the norm. Not a big deal, just gives you the impression that focus has shifted elsewhere.

[rmnpsplitter]

The numbers have been updated, just not the discussion. 7-16" is ok but pretty mediocre for a storm that was originally looking like March 2003. Minimal wind is nice for sure.

I hear ya. I originally had high hopes too. Seems like the forecasts have been falling apart this year pretty consistently. When they start hyping "March 2003" storm a week away I get pretty skeptical. Cant say I'm really that shocked. I was hopeful though. South Platte River Basin is still like 66% of average. We need 4-6" swe just to get back to normal. Was hoping we could knock that down a bit this weekend but I'll take anything we can get at this point. Getting worried that the corn harvest will be really short lived this year. A week of warm and sun will kill some areas in RMNP next week.

[bean]

Pattern change in two weeks.

[gratzo]

I remember when the updates would consistently come at 7:30 every day. Now 10:30 seems to be more of the norm. Not a big deal, just gives you the impression that focus has shifted elsewhere.

No focus shift ... just a crapload of data to look at this morning. Some storms are easier, some are not. I spent 2+ hours this AM going through all the data, then updated all the forecasts for the 28 ski areas I forecast for in Colorado, then turn that into the written form of the Colorado Daily Snow. Since the storm is still two days away, I figured I should spend time trying to get the forecast right rather than rush through to post an earlier update. Plus I had some wifi issues this morning that delayed things by about 30 minutes. And also ... the updates were never released at a consistent time ... I wish your memory of this were actually true:-) It mostly depends on the complexity of the forecast, timing of the storm, and my schedule.

I too was hoping for a storm to lay down 3-4 inches of SWE for the eastern mountains, but it doesn't look like this will be the storm. Maybe we'll get 1-1.5 inches of SWE in some of the foothills and definitely in the San Juans.

Interestingly, the GFS was a little better than the Euro in calling for this storm to move more quickly to the east. The Euro is likely still the better model overall, but each storm can be its own challenge.

JOEL

[bean]

I too was hoping for a storm to lay down 3-4 inches of SWE for the eastern mountains, but it doesn't look like this will be the storm. Maybe we'll get 1-1.5 inches of SWE in some of the foothills and definitely in the San Juans.

Better than nothing. Any decent chance of a surprise to the high side with this one or is it fairly certain it'll skip through quickly at this point?

[PowTrees]

This thread could use a lot less whining, but I understand it's been a lean year and we'd all like more powder. When did TGR turn into a control freaks forum? Not sure why so many people have lost sight of the fact that weather's unpredictable and will always differ from the computer models or weather man's forecast. Would you invest all your money in one person's prediction for where the stock market will go in the future?? Joel, thanks for all your hard work, it's enabled me to arrange my schedule so I can make 80 or 90% of the better powder days and in reality what more can you ask of any mortal human being or computer model?? (and of course I check NWS, CAIC, this thread, and possibly other sources to try and get a feel for something as unpredictable as future weather). Furthermore for anyone who bothers to read and retain much about weather forecasting that's been repeated a million times, cut off lows are always more unpredictable in direction and speed than storms traveling with the main jet stream.

[Rontele]

We are past 1,000,000 views in this thread.

[gratzo]

"Furthermore for anyone who bothers to read and retain much about weather forecasting that's been repeated a million times, cut off lows are always more unpredictable in direction and speed than storms traveling with the main jet stream."

You got it PowTrees.

@Bean - models are pretty consistent with this storm zipping through. But that doesn't mean some totals could come in on the high side. Southern San Juans are the highest confidence forecast, everything else is still tough.

JOEL

[FiveLarge]

Wasn't that the criteria for you putting on that size small Bama shirt?

We are past 1,000,000 views in this thread.

[grskier]

We are past 1,000,000 views in this thread.

PM Rontele... he's the rockstar that started this butthurtz

[Ernest_Hemingway]

When sent to the gallows, some men cry and ask for mercy and shit their pants. Some of these pants are shit before the floor drops out from beneath them and some after. And some both before and after.

Then there are men who ask only for a pair of heavy shoes and a strong rope.

I am guessing most of you young men would be in the former category.

[funkendrenchman]

And yet NOAA and snow-forecast have upped the totals for us.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using TGR Forums

[ASmileyFace]

I think it's fair to say outside of the San Juans no one really has a damn clue what this storm is going to do.

[Ireallyliketoski2]

Vegas has the over\under on I-70 car wrecks this weekend at 71.

[bean]

Vegas has the over\under on I-70 car wrecks this weekend at 71.

Is that number of vehicles involved or number of incidents?

[Ireallyliketoski2]

Is that number of vehicles involved or number of incidents?

that's the number of vehicles involved.

[bean]

I'll go out on a limb and take the over.