Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**zartagen** · 02-15-2013, 02:16 PM

Trenching in the bowls today. I'm loving the northwest flow under-report days this year.

**Lindahl** · 02-15-2013, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by gratzo

The trajectory of the northwest flow was just a bit further east than then previous event two weeks ago, so that's why eastern areas (breck, loveland, winter park) are doing a shade better than Vail. Steamboat is right in the mix as well.

JOEL

Laughable. 12-18" today at Vail. Classic mid-mountain underreport. Faceshots all day and no one around. Unbelievable day. Just like two weeks ago. Started the day off with 4 untracked thigh deep runs on Genghis, ended with a lap down to the car - waist to nipple deep back there. Easily 3' just like last time. A lot more wind this time though.

**hatchgreenchile** · 02-15-2013, 06:05 PM

To play devils advocate, isn’t the mid mountain report what weather dudes are trying to guess? Any putz can go out on a pow day, head 1500’ above the measuring stick and claim underreporting…

Shit, Vail would probaly average 400”+ a year if they measured back at Blue Sky or Outer Mongolia.

**grskier** · 02-15-2013, 06:11 PM

And Breck just happened to have an epic year once they moved the snow stake..

Anyhow, been sunny most of the day here in the mid RFV..

**goldenboy** · 02-15-2013, 06:22 PM

Originally Posted by grskier

Anyhow, been sunny most of the day here in the mid RFV..

Weird. Snowed all day in CB, not that it added up to much. Hopefully the next series of storms won't be NW flow, I'd rather have high pressure.

Edit to add: weirdest phoenix opening ever. Kinda fun, kinda scary, definitely thin.

**ASmileyFace** · 02-15-2013, 06:37 PM

Windy but clear down here in Durango. Good for the north to get some too but not going to lie. I'm a bit jelly.

**Lindahl** · 02-15-2013, 06:39 PM

Originally Posted by Cold_Smokin'

To play devils advocate, isn’t the mid mountain report what weather dudes are trying to guess? Any putz can go out on a pow day, head 1500’ above the measuring stick and claim underreporting…

Probably, though I think skiers would rather know how deep it actually is.

**hatchgreenchile** · 02-15-2013, 07:19 PM

Originally Posted by Lindahl

Probably, though I think skiers would rather know how deep it actually is.

No way to predict that one. Just got to get out there and test the product...

IMO, it all evens out. I've had 5" days where snow was way underreported, and 15" days that were way overhyped. At the end of the year, it's a wash.

**grskier** · 02-15-2013, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by goldenboy

Hopefully the next series of storms won't be NW flow, I'd rather have high pressure.

It just needs to be the right NW flow for us on this side of the Elks... I'll take it from whatever angle and ski the shit out of it though

**simple** · 02-15-2013, 08:51 PM

Huh uh huh .... Wow rabbit ears got hammered. Snow banks as tall as the truck

**gratzo** · 02-15-2013, 08:53 PM

One day we'll make a model to accurately forecast the snow from northwest flow. Looking back at model predictions made on Tuesday for accumulations from Wednesday through Friday, total snow at Vail was forecasted at 5" and total snow around Steamboat was 10-15". Heard from Steamboat Powdercats that it was about 30-40" in the last three days, and yes, Vail was likely 15-20"+ in many areas. I know northwest flow can overproduce, but I'm very hesitant to predict these high amounts because not all northwest flows are the same. And many times, you don't know if it's going to be an insane day until you actually get out there. If you got some today, good for you!

JOEL

**Lindahl** · 02-15-2013, 09:13 PM

Originally Posted by gratzo

One day we'll make a model to accurately forecast the snow from northwest flow. Looking back at model predictions made on Tuesday for accumulations from Wednesday through Friday, total snow at Vail was forecasted at 5" and total snow around Steamboat was 10-15". Heard from Steamboat Powdercats that it was about 30-40" in the last three days, and yes, Vail was likely 15-20"+ in many areas. I know northwest flow can overproduce, but I'm very hesitant to predict these high amounts because not all northwest flows are the same. And many times, you don't know if it's going to be an insane day until you actually get out there. If you got some today, good for you!

JOEL

I was mostly commenting on your rationlizing why Vail didn't do as well in this storm, when actually it did very well, comparatively. Not ripping on ya, but it was pretty funny to read after an amazing day out there.

**bamboocoreONLY** · 02-15-2013, 11:28 PM

heard breck ski'd well today, dumped until about 1 or so. unfortunately I can't ski for a week or so due to some stupid stitches on my side, literally the worst spot to have them in since they'll easily come open if I stretch to high lol.

**montanaskier** · 02-16-2013, 01:52 PM

Warm and windy

**rmnpsplitter** · 02-16-2013, 05:11 PM

Same here.

**BDKeg** · 02-16-2013, 06:38 PM

Originally Posted by goldenboy

Edit to add: weirdest phoenix opening ever. Kinda fun, kinda scary, definitely thin.

wasn't there for the opening on friday, but skied it Saturday and it surprisingly wasn't too bad. I'll let you brave souls pack it out and find all the rocks, hehe

**mfkracing** · 02-16-2013, 09:50 PM

Is say its starting to get pretty deep in the Vail Pass area. We had a marathon sled dig out session. Goggles Deep. Amazing layering. Stuff felt solid and then the bottom would fall out. Nothing like digging a 50 yard snow pit to get your sled out. We and some others laid down some lines on the NE face of Ptarmigan Peak. It's a weird thing the snow pack seams really reactive to foot penetration but less to skis in the top layers. No action today but it'll go if you hit it's sweet spot.

**karpiel** · 02-17-2013, 03:59 AM

Originally Posted by mfkracing

Nothing like digging a 50 yard snow pit to get your sled out.

I didn't partake in this adventure, but yea.

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**Name Redacted** · 02-17-2013, 07:36 AM

Apparently there was an inbounds slide in zuma bowl yesterday. 14 involved but only 1 injured. On a slope they had bombed.

**gratzo** · 02-17-2013, 08:10 AM

No worries at all ... I'm my worst critic when I can't figure out a forecast. There was an unforecasted wave that came through on Thursday night that kept the snow cranking, and the wave on Friday morning was a bit further west and this was responsible for the dumpage in Eagle county. I'm sure the next time we get northwest flow I'll triple the model's forecasted snow amounts and then it won't happen:-)

Originally Posted by Lindahl

I was mostly commenting on your rationlizing why Vail didn't do as well in this storm, when actually it did very well, comparatively. Not ripping on ya, but it was pretty funny to read after an amazing day out there.

**Hott Butt Mud** · 02-17-2013, 09:02 AM

montanaskier in the Vail Daily?

http://www.vaildaily.com/article/201...ntProfile=1062

Absolute shit snow pack around Copper. Deep mush; sink into knee deep snow and can't move.

**montanaskier** · 02-17-2013, 10:01 AM

^^^^ same thing all over this zone....a few great turns then auger up to your arm pits in sugar

**FiveLarge** · 02-17-2013, 03:59 PM

Originally Posted by mfkracing

Is say its starting to get pretty deep in the Vail Pass area. We had a marathon sled dig out session. Goggles Deep. Amazing layering. Stuff felt solid and then the bottom would fall out. Nothing like digging a 50 yard snow pit to get your sled out. We and some others laid down some lines on the NE face of Ptarmigan Peak. It's a weird thing the snow pack seams really reactive to foot penetration but less to skis in the top layers. No action today but it'll go if you hit it's sweet spot.

+1

Was out on Friday on VP. Was on a E/NE facing aspect, at/below tree line. Dug a pit, up to 6 feet of snow. Partly had to dig that deep just to get a working platform. Bottom 3 feet is shit. Partner was above to snowsaw out the back for an ECT, and when he stepped behind it, not on it (on his skis), whole thing fractured and propogated about a foot up from the bottom. Next thing to fracture was the new storm layer, and it went easily. But, that deep instability was enough to keep us off any convexity, that's for sure. Scary how easily it fractured, too. It would be huge. Careful out there.

Edit: two other notes.

1) I think this questions the idea that a skier will only affect about a meter down. This fracture came beyond that (about 5 feet down), and with him just shuffling above the column, which wasn't even isolate from the back yet. Nowhere near the force that someone actually making turns would bring.

2) Despite a shitty snowpack, we still had fun and were safe. You can still get into the backcountry. You just have to be smart about what you ski.

**Crampedon** · 02-17-2013, 04:08 PM

Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud

montanaskier in the Vail Daily?

http://www.vaildaily.com/article/201...ntProfile=1062

VD only quotes famous butthurt internet skiers!

**hatchgreenchile** · 02-17-2013, 06:32 PM

Cool day to hang around the Front Range. Real warm, Mrs Smokin' and I got an 8 hour hike in around Boulder Mtn Park. Just didn't feel like battling crowds and I-70 this weekend.

I did find myself daydreaming about an epic upslope storm that delivers 4+ feet to the Flatirons. That burn area on the backside of Bear Peak would be quite the place to make turns....