Real Estate Crash thread

[Hugh Conway]

Weird, only a crawl space on a house built in the 1950s? Is that normal around there?

no basements in California for the most part. taxes are essentially capped with minimal appreciation at what you buy the property at until you sell (unless values decline, when you can renegotiate down)

[liv2ski]

This house near my hood listed 10/3/2012 on MLS at $349k. Current bid is $410k and there are multiple backup bids. It isn't that nice either; needs an update.

http://www.realtor.com/realestateand...9_M14553-91688

Thank Baby Jeebuz rates are soooooo low or there is no way a 1400sq ft shit box would sell for $400k. CA RE prices anywhere close to the water make me laugh. Yes, I own a few blocks from the beach and values are retarded here.

[4matic]

Weird, only a crawl space on a house built in the 1950s? Is that normal around there?

Property taxes seem cheap. No wonder CA governments are going bankrupt.

Normal. Prop 13 limited property tax increases to your base rate in 1978. That house has not changed hands in 40 years. New buyer will get new tax base. Jarvis-Gann: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Califor...tion_13_(1978). It's been downhill for California since then.

Asian buyers. Big news is Taiwan has been granted visa free status. That means more Asian investment in California:

Wed, Oct 03, 2012

"The US last night announced Taiwan’s membership in its Visa Waiver Program (VWP), as the nation became the 37th country to receive the privilege.
The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) listed Taiwan on its Web site as one of the countries enjoying visa-free status, according to the Central News Agency."

[Benny Profane]

Normal. Prop 13 limited property tax increases to your base rate in 1978. That house has not changed hands in 40 years. New buyer will get new tax base. Jarvis-Gann: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Califor...tion_13_(1978). It's been downhill for California since then.

Asian buyers. Big news is Taiwan has been granted visa free status. That means more Asian investment in California:

Wed, Oct 03, 2012

"The US last night announced Taiwan’s membership in its Visa Waiver Program (VWP), as the nation became the 37th country to receive the privilege.
The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) listed Taiwan on its Web site as one of the countries enjoying visa-free status, according to the Central News Agency."

That's nice. But, what are they going to do here, besides buy a house? Work? Open a business? Get in line.

[4matic]

That's nice. But, what are they going to do here, besides buy a house? Work? Open a business? Get in line.

It's coming Benny. The more China invests the more we need Asian support businesses:

How much is China worth to the California economy? Try $60 billion.

That's the amount of Chinese direct investment that could flow into the Golden State in the next few years, if we play our cards right, says a report being released in San Francisco on Wednesday.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/business/botto...#ixzz28uPc0ThS

[Benny Profane]

It's coming Benny. The more China invests the more we need Asian support businesses:

How much is China worth to the California economy? Try $60 billion.

That's the amount of Chinese direct investment that could flow into the Golden State in the next few years, if we play our cards right, says a report being released in San Francisco on Wednesday.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/business/botto...#ixzz28uPc0ThS

Right, like our politicians would even allow it.

[Kevo]

Just re-learned that the average Single family house in Boulder is $548,000. The kicker? Average household income is only $50k and median family income is only $85k. How is this possible? Is there a bubble in Boulder yet to burst?

Maybe I'm just really debt averse, but how the hell are people paying for their brand new SUVs and their $550k homes on $85k/year? Also, the average house in Boulder is a 1960 piece of shit ranch that hasn't been updated since 1975. WTF?

[Yonder_River]

Just re-learned that the average Single family house in Boulder is $548,000. The kicker? Average household income is only $50k and median family income is only $85k. How is this possible? Is there a bubble in Boulder yet to burst?

Maybe I'm just really debt averse, but how the hell are people paying for their brand new SUVs and their $550k homes on $85k/year? Also, the average house in Boulder is a 1960 piece of shit ranch that hasn't been updated since 1975. WTF?

It does seem ridiculous and unsustainable, but keep in mind that there is a large segment of the population that does not own a home (because they cannot afford it) and they are factored into your 50k per year average. There is also a large student population which further waters down the "average" household income. If you look at the median income of potential home buyers, it is much higher.

[concretejungle]

Just re-learned that the average Single family house in Boulder is $548,000. The kicker? Average household income is only $50k and median family income is only $85k. How is this possible? Is there a bubble in Boulder yet to burst?

Maybe I'm just really debt averse, but how the hell are people paying for their brand new SUVs and their $550k homes on $85k/year? Also, the average house in Boulder is a 1960 piece of shit ranch that hasn't been updated since 1975. WTF?

A lot of those people not only get help from mommy and daddy for a home but have been being supported by them for their whole adult life.

For the ten plus years I lived in the Boulder area only like five or so families bought houses in Boulder and a couple more condo dwellers. These were people with good jobs. Not all of them bought outside of Boulder because the couldn't afford it but those who lived in town seemed a bit more financially strapped. My observation only.

[liv2ski]

I get a lot of RE updates as there are a few areas I want to invest in eventually. I have seen values increase in the 3 areas I am watching in 2012, but to a very great extent, feel that is only because of 3% financing being available. As Kevo points out, how can a family making $100k a year afford a $500k house along with the car payment, day care, health care, student loans, whatever. Being in the mortgage business and knowing that 90% of my pipeline is refinances doesn't make me think the market is sustainable either. Once rates go up, which they must at some point. I think values will fall from the present levels. Prices are just to high for household incomes, end of story.

[powder11]

Prices are just to high for household incomes, end of story.

Maybe for someone trying to enter the market in that range, but for the folks who started out with a small, easy to afford place and progressively moved up the ladder over time by properly leveraging their increasing equity, it's a no brainer. The most sour and vocal people tend to be the ones who sat on the bench 1/2 their lives expecting the market was going to be handed to them on silver platter one day when eveything collapsed. Well, we've seen that collapse and shit is still going up because there is a larger % of people in the market who are leveraging equity to afford property that is not supported by income. Some win, some lose and a whole lot didn't have a seat when the music stopped, but that is how the game is played.

[Benny Profane]

Maybe for someone trying to enter the market in that range, but for the folks who started out with a small, easy to afford place and progressively moved up the ladder over time by properly leveraging their increasing equity, it's a no brainer. The most sour and vocal people tend to be the ones who sat on the bench 1/2 their lives expecting the market was going to be handed to them on silver platter one day when eveything collapsed. Well, we've seen that collapse and shit is still going up because there is a larger % of people in the market who are leveraging equity to afford property that is not supported by income. Some win, some lose and a whole lot didn't have a seat when the music stopped, but that is how the game is played.

I can't fucking wait for the Canada market to tank and then listen to you whine about your loss of equity. Some say it's starting to crumble now. Oh,wait, no, it's different there, isn't it? RE always goes up, right? Right.

[liv2ski]

The most sour and vocal people tend to be the ones who sat on the bench 1/2 their lives expecting the market was going to be handed to them on silver platter one day when eveything collapsed. Well, we've seen that collapse and shit is still going up because there is a larger % of people in the market who are leveraging equity to afford property that is not supported by income. Some win, some lose and a whole lot didn't have a seat when the music stopped, but that is how the game is played.

P11, I own (most outright) plenty of real estate. This isn't my first rodeo. I have seen prices in the US and Canada go up and down and up, then down, etc. So I prefer to pick my entry points a bit differently than you may. I am likely a lot more cautious than you, as I have a lot more to lose and not much working time left, to offset bad timing. So bear with me. I don't care if you go all in this year, I just think it is prudent to wait and see what mid 2013 brings, as I am not convinced we are in a healthy economy or RE market. Just my 2 cents

Edit: more food for thought that supports my beliefs. I just received this email: http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/7...+Love+SoCal%29

[XXX-er]

I can't fucking wait for the Canada market to tank and then listen to you whine about your loss of equity. Some say it's starting to crumble now. Oh,wait, no, it's different there, isn't it? RE always goes up, right? Right.

vancover has been going straight up for 10yrs even thru the US melt down ... that should be the best shit show, some people will win ... some will lose

I know I am positioned well

[iceman]

If you pay a reasonable price and are not in a jam to sell it tends to work itself out. mo people mo people.

And we're not going down the shitter just yet, no matter who wins tomorrow.

[powder11]

I can't fucking wait for the Canada market to tank and then listen to you whine about your loss of equity. Some say it's starting to crumble now. Oh,wait, no, it's different there, isn't it? RE always goes up, right? Right.

The Whistler RE market crumbled right along with the US economy, dumbshit. That's why we bought our 2nd place in 2009; everything was on fire sale. The 1st one I bought was in 2003, so I'm still up a bit on a market that has dropped off 30% in the last few years. The Vancouver market is falling off as we speak, but certainly not tanking. The good news for me is that Whistler RE traditionaly is the opposite of Vancouver.

Canada is different in the sense that borrowing standards are way more tight than the states and have tightened even more since the meltdown, so Canadian banks have not suffered through piles of foreclosures. You would know all that if you didn't have your head up your ass most of the time.

I honestly don't care about every little blip and blurp in the economy because I'm not selling shit until it's time to retire. By then I should be able to liquidate, downsize into a cozy little condo and still have a chunk of change to live off. If not, everyone else in the world will most likely be fucked too and we will all be living some sort of Mad Max existance where balls rule, so you're pretty much screwed either way, Benny.

[Kevo]

A lot of those people not only get help from mommy and daddy for a home but have been being supported by them for their whole adult life.

For the ten plus years I lived in the Boulder area only like five or so families bought houses in Boulder and a couple more condo dwellers. These were people with good jobs. Not all of them bought outside of Boulder because the couldn't afford it but those who lived in town seemed a bit more financially strapped. My observation only.

Sadly, this rings true with many people I know as well. So many Boulder people with shitty outdoor industry (or retail) jobs are propped up by their parents who buy them houses/condos/cars and pay for their vacations. Seriously, fuck that industry and the parents who allow wages to be kept so low. I'm so glad to have moved on.

[meatdrink9]

Sadly, this rings true with many people I know as well. So many Boulder people with shitty outdoor industry (or retail) jobs are propped up by their parents who buy them houses/condos/cars and pay for their vacations. Seriously, fuck that industry and the parents who allow wages to be kept so low. I'm so glad to have moved on.

That may be a reason why Ogden is booming in the outdoor sports industry. Housing here is dirt cheap so the quality of life goes way up while staying in the same field.

[Kevo]

That may be a reason why Ogden is booming in the outdoor sports industry. Housing here is dirt cheap so the quality of life goes way up while staying in the same field.

I think it has more to do with commercial real estate being cheaper in Ogden/SLC than Boulder/Denver. So much of the warehouse space in the Boulder area is being used for medical mmj grow ops and the outdoor industry companies don't want to pay the premium price/sq foot to compete with the growers and other industries.

That outdoor industry is pretty rotten- many of the top brands are foreign brands that set up set up profit center subsidiaries in the US and take advantage of a naive workforce that bend over to work in a "cool" industry. There are thousands of shop kids who aspire to work for on the vendor side, so the companies can burn through people and not care. Domestic brands get sold off and ruined time and time again (Cloudveil, etc). It's really not a good industry to try to have a career.

[Benny Profane]

I think it has more to do with commercial real estate being cheaper in Ogden/SLC than Boulder/Denver. So much of the warehouse space in the Boulder area is being used for medical mmj grow ops and the outdoor industry companies don't want to pay the premium price/sq foot to compete with the growers and other industries.

That outdoor industry is pretty rotten- many of the top brands are foreign brands that set up set up profit center subsidiaries in the US and take advantage of a naive workforce that bend over to work in a "cool" industry. There are thousands of shop kids who aspire to work for on the vendor side, so the companies can burn through people and not care. Domestic brands get sold off and ruined time and time again (Cloudveil, etc). It's really not a good industry to try to have a career.

Companies like to set up shop in places that have affordable residential RE too. Easier to attract and retain employees.

[AdironRider]

Sadly, this rings true with many people I know as well. So many Boulder people with shitty outdoor industry (or retail) jobs are propped up by their parents who buy them houses/condos/cars and pay for their vacations. Seriously, fuck that industry and the parents who allow wages to be kept so low. I'm so glad to have moved on.

This is pretty huge, and not exclusive to Boulder.

Pretty much every ski town is supported by trust fund kids, not the true ski bums making a go of it. The majority of kids waiting tables are just doing so to justify the checks from Mom and Dad, while fucking over everyone else who depends on the jobs to live.

[icelanticskier]

and then there are those that claim they fish in alaska during the off season cuz they need the dough to support they're ski habit. heh.

rog

[TheMessenger]

All Obama voters

[Kevo]

Companies like to set up shop in places that have affordable residential RE too. Easier to attract and retain employees.

Most companies from other industries, yes. With the exception of a few good outdoor industry companies (Patagonia, maybe Osprey, maybe OR, perhaps Petzl and a few others), outdoor industry companies don't care about retaining employees.

Most ride the coattails of the reputation Patagonia has, but churn and burn through employees because of hoards of people trying to get into the industry. It's sad.

[meatdrink9]

Ogden #1 for affordability in the US.

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_es...using-markets/