Real Estate Crash thread

[Benny Profane]

Baby boomers will create jobs in health care, travel, leisure, and home services as they age. The dire predictions of demographic shift are overplayed.

Travel? Leisure?

Nope. The Boomers have no money. Half have no savings. The other half have maybe 50 grand, on average, which is just a way of saying that maybe 20% of non working Boomers will have enough to not worry about the basics, let alone travel and leisure. Health care? Good luck with that, although, at least, they have medicare, even if it's getting pissed on right now. Can't see how that's going to create a lot of jobs outside of bedpan attendants.

You are slowly going to witness levels of senior poverty not seen since the thirties. It's not going to be pretty for many who don't work until the last heartbeat.

[mud]

Explain these charts doubters.

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/20...b/interactive/

[chatton18]

And i don't see healthcare wages rising anytime soon, while it may be a growing industry, a lot of that money is getting put into R&D costs. On the person to person basis, I just saw a number that said 46% of RNs that graduated in the past 18 months are unemployed - not exactly the best thing for wage growth in the industry.

[Hugh Conway]

Explain these charts doubters.

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/20...b/interactive/

source: realtor.com. Plenty of other people out there willing to assert there's lots of shadow inventory (not sure what else you call renting things out to college kids for less a month than you pay in mortgage); if you depend on Murdoch's hacks kiss your $ goodbye

chatton18 - RNs are expensive so of course they aren't getting hired, like you said growth is at the low wage end i.e. Technicians and decreasing each step of the way on the pyramid -> LVN -> RN -> NP -> MD; while R&D will continue to cost lots of money uncertain how much will be plowed into it

[Benny Profane]

Explain these charts doubters.

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/20...b/interactive/

OK, I'll try again. This is a result of banks holding off on foreclosures, plus underwater "homeowners" unable to sell, plus glacial like foreclosure processes in judicial states, plus large fund investors gobbling up lower priced homes (mostly foreclosures) on the market. This is not a normal, organic market.

[mud]

source: realtor.com

Who else should we ask?
The people in the business or pizza drivers?

[chatton18]

Explain these charts doubters.

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/20...b/interactive/

Hmm so last I checked, when someone moves out of one housing unit they need to move into another one in terms of net housing demand. So the only change in housing stock you get is from new homes built/homes destroyed and the change in demand comes from new household formation and people purchasing second/third homes that they will leave vacant. What you really should be looking at is vacant units available for rent, sale or in the other category which is available from the US Census bureau in the HVS report. New data should be coming out at the end of the month. This shows us still well above the long term average and is a truer measure of housing demand.

In terms of "new demand for houses" I just don't really see it. You have investors thinking that this buying SF homes to rent out is going to work (it won't unless there is appreciation) bc maintenance on a SF home is high. In addition household formation remains low as young people continue to double up for longer and are not financially stable enough to go out and start their own house. You have to remember, its really the younger generation that is the cause of new housing demand and except in certain locations, they just don't have the money. SF has a large tech boom so some of the younger folks will be able to afford houses, but nationally, things aren't going to shoot up any time soon.

[chatton18]

Who else should we ask?
The people in the business or pizza drivers?

Sorry this wasn't up. I'd trust the government vs. the people trying to make money on transactions. Larry Yun has been talking up housing since 2005.

[Benny Profane]

Who else should we ask?
The people in the business or pizza drivers?

Well, you can always wait for BofA's quarterly report and the criminal lies within, telling us that the tonnage of bad mortgages Lewis bought for some godforsaken reason are going to be just fine, if we manipulate the market just so.

[Hugh Conway]

Who else should we ask?
The people in the business or pizza drivers?

Why would you expect any information on shadow inventory from an agregator of MLS listings? Unless you are a Wall Street pizza delivery guy

[mud]

Why should we believe anything reported in JAMA? It not like they can prove anything on data and its all a scam by the doctors, right?

[Hugh Conway]

Why should we believe anything reported in JAMA?

It's peer reviewed scientific literature? i.e as far from "realtor.com" as you can get?

[mud]

And realtor.com is the compilation of pizza drivers? Not thousands of offices across the country. It okay Hugh the world sucks where you live but nowhere else.

[Hugh Conway]

And realtor.com is the compilation of pizza drivers? Not thousands of offices across the country. It okay Hugh the world sucks where you live but nowhere else.

Sweet! Mud's declared MLS listings the end all be all in Real Estate market knowledge! WOOHOO!

no, dipshit, where I live the Real Estate market is "rebounding" but looking just slightly beneath the surface still seems structurally fucked because the base - employed households doing well - isn't really there.

[4matic]

Well, you can always wait for BofA's quarterly report and the criminal lies within, telling us that the tonnage of bad mortgages Lewis bought for some godforsaken reason are going to be just fine, if we manipulate the market just so.

Benny going all Zerohedge.

[mud]

Do the research, the Labor and Commerce Departments are probably in on the scam with the realtors. If you're going to ignore the positive numbers and keep thinking housing is flat or going into decline then enjoy the ride on that delusional train.

[Hugh Conway]

Do the research, the Labor and Commerce Departments are probably in on the scam with the realtors. If you're going to ignore the positive numbers and keep thinking housing is flat or going into decline then enjoy the ride on that delusional train.

This is the invent the other sides position thread again?

[chatton18]

Do the research, the Labor and Commerce Departments are probably in on the scam with the realtors. If you're going to ignore the positive numbers and keep thinking housing is flat or going into decline then enjoy the ride on that delusional train.

Good thing i didnt cite the labor or commerce department then but rather the census bureau. Although there are some major issues with that data too, but i know you're too dumb to figure out what they are.

[mud]

Yep, dumb like a fox.

[chatton18]

Yep, dumb like a fox.

And in terms of census data that I am citing, heres a chart looking at what I consider to be real estate inventory available. While things are declining, we're a long way from the long term average. Once again, I'm not looking at "homes on the market" since thats not really a good metric. If I sell my home, I need to go find somewhere else to live and will buy another. The trend now is not to buy up so people are staying where they are and new buyers are not entering the market.

[mud]

While things are declining...

Eggzacly, things are declining, which was the original point.
Not that they are back to normal.
Not that its boom times again.
Not that Realtor.com is a shadow conspiracy.
Just declining inventories and rising sales and prices.

[Hugh Conway]

and rising sales and prices.

While the headline said "rising prices" the data actually showed declining month to month prices in most markets

but hey if the rallying cry is now "its not dead anymore" sure, in agreeance

[chatton18]

While the headline said "rising prices" the data actually showed declining month to month prices in most markets

but hey if the rallying cry is now "its not dead anymore" sure, in agreeance

While I hate to support Mud here, I don't know where you're getting your price data from hugh, on a seasonally adjusted basis pretty much every major measure that I've seen has been up the last month (case shiller, NAR median existing home prices, corelogic)

[Hugh Conway]

While I hate to support Mud here, I don't know where you're getting your price data from hugh, on a seasonally adjusted basis pretty much every major measure that I've seen has been up the last month (case shiller, NAR median existing home prices, corelogic)

Err - the interactive graphic mud was using to support his statements:
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/20...b/interactive/

[Benny Profane]

Benny going all Zerohedge.

More like Big Picture. Zero's a bunch of whiney punk trusty day traders.