Real Estate Crash thread

[cramer]

They are in court as we speak.
Bwahaha. Whatever. Yeah, your right, not indirectly, but pretty much in every other way. There is no inventory because the government has forced the banks to keep the foreclosures off the market. That and the fed doing this thing called QE3. If that isn't government trying to manipulate the market, then I don't know what is. Problem is these schemes just don't work and delay the inevitable.

But you keep on hoping. Wait until after November, you'll see what I'm talking about.

You bought in '08? Good god, you sure must be desperate for a housing 'recovery' then. Sorry for you.

But, I don't really care about any of this. Nothing I say will change the reality. i live within my means, and don't have any debt whatsoever.. So whatever happens, free I tell you.

LOL desperate for a housing recovery? I closed in dec of 2008. Why would i be desperate. I have equity in my house. You're a little misinformed about when it was time to buy and when it wasnt. I got the pick of the litter. There was 4X houses on the market than their is now. And i got to lowball the bank. Not only that, i can rent my house out as income. I actually will make money on my house if i have to move because of job, etc.

[cramer]

Wow.

I always have to remind myself how uninformed most Americans are about the world around them, even with the constant stream of all kinds of media available to them. Do yourself a favor, dude, and google FHA, Fannie and Freddie, and Fed monetary stimulus.
You live in California, right? Here, I'll help you start by telling you one thing. There are hundreds of people surrounding you in your market that either bought their homes with FHA (the government) sponsored 3.5 down payment loans for up to about $700,000, with very relaxed credit score requirements (around 600 minimum). Or, they are seriously considering buying a home using that financing. This never happened before'09. Well, it did, but it was done by private banks, and they were called "subprime" loans. Remember "subprime" loans? Now your government is a subprime lender, the only one out there. FHA loans were actually doled out quite conservatively to the middle and lower classes for much lower amounts and much higher credit requirements before the crash. This is how your government, or you and I and the rest of us paying taxes, is propping up the market. (And bailing out the banks, too, but we won't go there now)

Fuck it, though. I'm still hoping this ski condo thing crashes soon. Maybe after the election. I'm pretty confident that a lot of the lies and behind the scenes machinations propping up prices will be dropped. I hope.

Hey, dont hate the player, hate the game benny. Dont be hating on us who sat on the sidelines while morons paid astronomic prices and lost their houses. You might want to start liking us FHA junkies who got handed a free down payments or down payment loans and still have their fucking houses after 4 years and actually have equity in them. YOu know why? Because we bought fucking houses we could afford. The world is filled with fucking idiots, ALOT OF THEM. Luckily, we have some level headed people out there that realize that you cant afford a fucking half million to million dollar house on a 150K a year family salary. My FHA isnt subprime. Its a fixed fucking loan with a fixed interest rate that has already been refied. I assure you, its "subprime" borrowers like me that has helped stabalized this market. We all bought cheap. We can actually afford our house payment quite easily. The best part, its not going to change in price.

[TheMessenger]

this article articulates the situation it better than I could.

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120...bust-over.html

the recent bump in housing prices are due to a clogged foreclosure pipeline, not any real,normal 'recovery'. Millions of 'homeowners' who have not paid a mortgage payment in years, yet they are still live in their house. That is what we mean those of us who say that the market is 'fucked up' or not 'normal'.

[iceman]

You're right. All is lost. Time to die.

[liv2ski]

^^^^Ice, it is time to party like there is no tomorrow. Come on man, git with the program

[powder11]

this article articulates the situation it better than I could.

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120...bust-over.html

the recent bump in housing prices are due to a clogged foreclosure pipeline, not any real,normal 'recovery'. Millions of 'homeowners' who have not paid a mortgage payment in years, yet they are still live in their house. That is what we mean those of us who say that the market is 'fucked up' or not 'normal'.

lulz... buddy spends a solid day googling up a storm because he has zero 1st hand knowledge on the topic and all he can come up with is some horse shit article by random mcnobody from the interwebz in australia. so funny! I love how douchebag blog morons that don't have any sort of credible knowledge or exp can write an article that says experts who've made vast fortunes buying and selling stuff don't know shit.

When I read between the lines, you are really saying "I'm going to throw rocks at something just because I'm jealous as fuck and hope that sooner or later everyone else is as big a failure at life as me".

[TheMessenger]

^^^ What do I have to be jealous about exactly?

[cramer]

this article articulates the situation it better than I could.

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120...bust-over.html

the recent bump in housing prices are due to a clogged foreclosure pipeline, not any real,normal 'recovery'. Millions of 'homeowners' who have not paid a mortgage payment in years, yet they are still live in their house. That is what we mean those of us who say that the market is 'fucked up' or not 'normal'.

Once again, you are misinformed. This clogged foreclosure pipeline has actually been short sales and what has kept the flood of houses from hitting the market. I assure you, thats a fact. There is no doubt there will an uptick in REO's hitting the market. But its not going to be anywhere near what you saw in 2005-2008. Banks werent making it easy to short sale back then. Either way man, my opinion stands. There are plenty of tools out there on the internet to show you your area and whether or not its a good time to buy. When you can get a house cheaper than you are paying rent, im buying. Sorry if you dont agree with that.

[4matic]

this article articulates the situation it better than I could.

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120...bust-over.html

the recent bump in housing prices are due to a clogged foreclosure pipeline, not any real,normal 'recovery'. Millions of 'homeowners' who have not paid a mortgage payment in years, yet they are still live in their house. That is what we mean those of us who say that the market is 'fucked up' or not 'normal'.

That's what the local agent told me. Loads of people in my hood waiting for the sheriff to boot them.

[cramer]

^^^^Ice, it is time to party like there is no tomorrow. Come on man, git with the program

I can throw the party at my house since its going to be worthless anyways. I'll even go catch a rabbit for ice to pummel with a hammer if he can make it. hehe, dude, that story still cracks me up. Probably a bad joke, but it made me chuckle. ;>

[cramer]

That's what the local agent told me. Loads of people in my hood waiting for the sheriff to boot them.

that pretty much blows. where do you live? Nothing fun about hearing about families getting booted from their homes.

[4matic]

that pretty much blows. where do you live? Nothing fun about hearing about families getting booted from their homes.

94580. Very few homes for sale right now. I think prices are fragile but we'll see next spring. Selling season is over.

[Hugh Conway]

94580. Very few homes for sale right now. I think prices are fragile but we'll see next spring. Selling season is over.

That's another thing about the CA real estate market I've never understood. In New York, the midwest, places where winter is some grime shitseason, sure. In CA where shits actually green why doesn't anybody try to sell a home? Even Santa Barb - perfect in the winter, where money flocks, is poor in Jan-Feb and peaks in the crappiest month there July. WTF?

[Benny Profane]

Because of school schedules. Families like to move when school is off, so the kiddies aren't disturbed.

[powder11]

That's what the local agent told me. Loads of people in my hood waiting for the sheriff to boot them.

Downtown Detroit? Cleveland?

[Benny Profane]

^^^ What do I have to be jealous about exactly?

Yeah. What's to be jealous of?

[powder11]

Yeah. What's to be jealous of?

Come on Benny, you're posts are dripping with jealousy of all those Porsche driving, ski condo owning big shooters down at the office. You despise them for taking advantage of a system that you're too much of a pussy to engage in.

[cramer]

That's another thing about the CA real estate market I've never understood. In New York, the midwest, places where winter is some grime shitseason, sure. In CA where shits actually green why doesn't anybody try to sell a home? Even Santa Barb - perfect in the winter, where money flocks, is poor in Jan-Feb and peaks in the crappiest month there July. WTF?

We livei n CA, we dont like looking at houses in the rain. Who the fuck wants to drive around in the rain and look at houses. I sure as hell dont when i can look at houses under the sun the other 8-9 months of the year.

[TheMessenger]

Come on Benny, you're posts are dripping with jealousy of all those Porsche driving, ski condo owning big shooters down at the office. You despise them for taking advantage of a system that you're too much of a pussy to engage in.

Yeah, I'm just about as jealous of those guys as I am of someone trying to swim a triathalon with an anchor tied around their leg. I can't tell you how many people I know who have prostituted themselves in the get rich quick scam of trying to buy and sell real estate for profit, just to stay afloat of the debt the have saddled themselves with. Funny thing is, they bought at 'the right time' and Sure if they had sold at the top they're be doing fine, but instead they hold a big lump of shit that is draining their life away. Nope not jealous.

[cramer]

Yeah, I'm just about as jealous of those guys as I am of someone trying to swim a triathalon with an anchor tied around their leg. I can't tell you how many people I know who have prostituted themselves in the get rich quick scam of trying to buy and sell real estate for profit, just to stay afloat of the debt the have saddled themselves with. Funny thing is, they bought at 'the right time' and Sure if they had sold at the top they're be doing fine, but instead they hold a big lump of shit that is draining their life away. Nope not jealous.

About everyone of my friends pressured me to buy from like 2000-2006. I told them no, i cant afford a 300-400K house. I make X amount of money and can afford X amount a month. But i looked at 30 year fixed, nothing else. I asked them as they are buying 500K houses "how are you going to afford that" on under 100K a year. "we'll make it work". My thoughts were dead on. "uh, no you wont.". Well guess what, everyone of these friends that were asking me "why dont you own a house, you make great money"? Well, because I cant afford one. "yes you can". No I cant!. Well guess who has a house and nobody else does? I am now going on year 4 of ownership. I've written off over 120K on my tax returns the first 3 years. If you dont know what that means, that means you are knocking 1/3rd of your income as being taxable. Instead of being taxed at 100K+ your being taxed at 60K+. That and im dropping 5% into 401K. You can knock off another 5K thats not taxable. Guess what, im in a whole new tax bracket as a married couple with a kid.

With all that said. Its probably going downhill now. My wife was only part time the last few years. She just took a job making pretty good money. It could go all downhill now, lol. Either way, dont listen to anyone but your gut instinct or someone who you would consider a pretty smart individual. I had a smart individual who lived down here where i moved to and told me to pull the trigger at end of 2008. He was right. But he lived here, knew the market and saw basically what i saw. I called him and said hey, im actually thinking about buying now. His thoughts were, great time, i dont see it going much lower and well, it didnt. He bought a condo in the 80's in walnut creek. Sold that thing for 450K in like 2004. he bounced and paid cash on a place up in WA state on a lake. Rough life i tell ya. he paid 89K originally brand new. he didnt even renovate the thing. You have to think longterm unless you are someone in the game with cash to fix shit up and sell it. Otherwise, like me, i'm raising a family and once my kids out of school, this place is gone and im getting a van down by the river. A big van that is.

[powder11]

Yeah, I'm just about as jealous of those guys as I am of someone trying to swim a triathalon with an anchor tied around their leg. I can't tell you how many people I know who have prostituted themselves in the get rich quick scam of trying to buy and sell real estate for profit, just to stay afloat of the debt the have saddled themselves with. Funny thing is, they bought at 'the right time' and Sure if they had sold at the top they're be doing fine, but instead they hold a big lump of shit that is draining their life away. Nope not jealous.

Benny = The Messenger

What a tool...

[Benny Profane]

No.

You know that a tool is somebody who goes on and on how he's got it all going on describing his little suburban hell and the debt servitude he's signed on to for the rest of his fucking life, as though he's got it all figured out.

[cramer]

No.

You know that a tool is somebody who goes on and on how he's got it all going on describing his little suburban hell and the debt servitude he's signed on to for the rest of his fucking life, as though he's got it all figured out.

Define debt hell. If you dont want the debt, walk away from it. Where you going to end up? Renting again. Oh, right back where you were before, paying someone elses mortgage. That sounds like a fucking Great Plan!! Your going to be paying for somewhere to live the rest of your life. Why not pay for your own? I'm not sure about the state you live in, but people here can walk away, no looking back and the only reprocussions are they have to build their credit up for 3 years and they are right back in the game again. Don't hate the players benny, hate the game.

[Spats]

Define debt hell. If you dont want the debt, walk away from it. Where you going to end up? Renting again. Oh, right back where you were before, paying someone elses mortgage. That sounds like a fucking Great Plan!! Your going to be paying for somewhere to live the rest of your life. Why not pay for your own? I'm not sure about the state you live in, but people here can walk away, no looking back and the only reprocussions are they have to build their credit up for 3 years and they are right back in the game again. Don't hate the players benny, hate the game.

I couldn't own a place where I live now (Tahoe, next to NF land, 1 minute from singletrack, 5min walk to the best beach on the lake) for 5x my rent.

And when things break, it's not my problem...I call the manager and he gets them fixed. I don't even mow my own lawn...all I do is shovel my (very short) driveway. When I talk to people who own houses, all they talk about is all the stuff they're doing to their house, because it takes up most of their time. I'd rather go skiing or mountain biking or read a book or become a nutrition authority and speak at conferences...

...and I've enjoyed a life full of those things (and many more).

The key is to treat a house like you would any other investment. Don't get caught up in hype...run the numbers and see if it makes sense. If you can buy and maintain (don't forget maintenance costs) a place on a 20-30 year fixed for what you'd have to pay to rent it, and you don't think you'll have to move soon, then it might be a good investment.

[cramer]

I couldn't own a place where I live now (Tahoe, next to NF land, 1 minute from singletrack, 5min walk to the best beach on the lake) for 5x my rent.

And when things break, it's not my problem...I call the manager and he gets them fixed. I don't even mow my own lawn...all I do is shovel my (very short) driveway. When I talk to people who own houses, all they talk about is all the stuff they're doing to their house, because it takes up most of their time. I'd rather go skiing or mountain biking or read a book or become a nutrition authority and speak at conferences...

...and I've enjoyed a life full of those things (and many more).

The key is to treat a house like you would any other investment. Don't get caught up in hype...run the numbers and see if it makes sense. If you can buy and maintain (don't forget maintenance costs) a place on a 20-30 year fixed for what you'd have to pay to rent it, and you don't think you'll have to move soon, then it might be a good investment.

Well, depends on what you are willing to spend to not have to spend time on your house. I have a home warranty i pay 450 a year for to not have to fuck with anything. If something breaks, i pay 60 bucks for a service call and its fixed. I have a dude that does all my yard work once a week. My place was new and move in ready though. So i wont be doing much to it for years to come. Like you, id rather have someone to take care of things so i can go ride the jet ski's and boat on the lake or shoot up to tahoe for a weekend. It all depends on your situation, where you live and what your priorities are. The stars aligned for me 4 years ago. I could have probably bought a house back in 2000. my priorities were hitting the slopes, hitting the lake and not really have much of a worry in the world. My priorities changed. I got married, had a kid and have to think about someone else other than myself. Completely agree with your post.