Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[funkendrenchman]

I think Indy Pass had better coverage in late Oct than G-8 has right now.

[montanaskier]

I don't like the odds of much snow this week and neither does NOAA but the continue to like the odds of a much snowier Jan (wouldn't take much) than Nov or Dec. I think it has snowed less than 2feet in Dec and half of htat fell in one "storm". Fingers crossed that the new year brings new results. Here is a pretty detailed look at the first part of winter and what is in store (we hope) for the rest of the winter.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/bou/s...12_Outlook.pdf

[The SnowShow]

went snowshoeing up Chief Mtn today, above Echo...there's a SHITLOAD of powder up there

[funkendrenchman]

From aspenweather.net

Extended Forecast – The models are indicating a theme. The theme is we have some moisture around on Wednesday and Thursday but little if any upper air support. For this reason I’m not very excited about any real snow. Friday looks dry. After next Saturday the ensembles from many of our models are firmly in agreement that a large ridge sits over the Rockies and very dry weather will last at least another week.

Better start saving some $$$ for trips...

1976-77 anyone? Of course we could have a repeat of February '93, when it began snowing for 32 straight days.... that'd be nice.

[BDKeg]

if we get another 2 weeks of dry weather it's going to take a miracle to even get the snowpack back to a mediocre/normal year.

[Bird Blaster]

I hope you guys get some snow in the next 2 weeks. Coming to visit your fine state for the first time jan 8th! Weather has looked rough for the last month.

[montanaskier]

well we always get the Jan thaw so 2 weeks of warm and sun is coming at some point. Many places in the northern mtns are on pace for a 100" season. The backcountry is a pile of facets on N and W aspects and virtually dry on S and E aspects below 10k. I'm starting to think that it might just be an uber shitty year and a very short spring.

[deeppo]

I'm starting to think that it might just be an uber shitty year and a very short spring.

This is just a stupid statement. It could be a shitty season and a short spring but nobody has any clue to what will happen. Last year telluride closed with 212 inches and around 75 percent of normal snowpack. Fast foward to May where the San Juans where at 120% of normal and the late season skiing was as good as its ever been. I skied lines in early June that normally are melted of in mid april. Again maybe this is 76-77 but no one has any clue.

[montanaskier]

This is just a stupid statement. It could be a shitty season and a short spring but nobody has any clue to what will happen. Last year telluride closed with 212 inches and around 75 percent of normal snowpack. Fast foward to May where the San Juans where at 120% of normal and the late season skiing was as good as its ever been. I skied lines in early June that normally are melted of in mid april. Again maybe this is 76-77 but no one has any clue.

which is why it isn't a statement...but an opinion and a weak one at that since I said "starting to think". It'll come at some point more than likely and I had a blast skiing deep facets today and I've had fun ripping groomers on resort days. I'm stoked that I have a 6 month old son so in the grand scheme of things if it never snows another flake or dumps a billion inches staring tonight it really doesn't matter. It's the little things that keep things in perspective.

[RonMexico]

It's the little things that keep things in perspective.

True, but even the little things are better with a couple feet of snow.

[deeppo]

which is why it isn't a statement...but an opinion and a weak one at that since I said "starting to think". It'll come at some point more than likely and I had a blast skiing deep facets today and I've had fun ripping groomers on resort days. I'm stoked that I have a 6 month old son so in the grand scheme of things if it never snows another flake or dumps a billion inches staring tonight it really doesn't matter. It's the little things that keep things in perspective.

Your absolutely right. Just trying to stay positive. In reality its been a good ski season for me. 31 day alpine(10 nordic). Most of them have been pseudo powder days. Telluride is mostly open and coverage is not horrible. Just hoping for some snow to roll in.
Let it snow

[garuda]

Highlights
I have endeavored in this little bulletin, to raise the ghost of an idea, to put my readers in humor without making too light of the situation. Avalanches still haunt the backcountry, and no one wishes to be laid out. Watch for small avalanches in recent snow, localized to steep slopes. Deeper, larger, more threatening avalanches are possible, the remains of winds of weeks prior, though harder to trigger.
Your faithful friend and servant,
S.L.

Avalanche Danger
The avalanche danger in the Front Range zone is MODERATE (Level 2) near and above treeline. The avalanche danger is generally LOW (Level 1) below treeline.

Snow & Avalanche Discussion
The season was dead: to begin with. There is no doubt whatever about that. The register of its burial was signed by the weatherman, the tourer, the forecaster, and the chief sledder. Scrooge signed it: and Scrooge's name was good to stop change, for any forecast he chose to put his hand to. The season was as dead as a door-nail.
Mind! I don't mean to say that I know, of my own knowledge, what there is particularly dead about a door-nail. The season could change, and snow could fall, turning the snowpack around. But the wisdom of our ancestors is in the simile; and my unhallowed hands shall stretch the metaphor, or the forecast's done for. You will therefore permit me to repeat, emphatically, that the season was as dead as a doornail.
Is it really dead? Of course not. How could it be? But; there are only so many ways to say "shallow," only so many synonyms for "facets," only so many times to repeat "wind slab," "persistent slab," "variable." For the snowpack of the Christmas present is, as is always true, informed by the snowpack of days past.
That past is of snow that fell and winds that blew, with periods of high pressure in between; the result the afore mentioned persistent slabs, distributed and shaped by the wind, and separated by or resting upon weak, faceted snow. These you will find drifted onto steep northwest to northeast to southeast facing slopes, at elevations near and above treeline. The old persistent slabs are stubborn, well set in their ways, and will be hard to move. The most likely place to trigger an avalanche will be the thin margins of the slabs, where, if you allow me to stretch a simile further, slight nudges will exert greater leverage.
Capping the snowpack are younger slabs, comprised of snow that fell last week. Again, the word variable must be used. Accompanying the storm were winds from the east, from the northeast, and even from the west. Such winds result in a pattern of loading that, to be generous, is localized and changeable in temperament. It’s countenance can be found in subtle cues, clues to the capricious drifting. Variable—that word again, bah!—variable, too, was the snowfall amount. The storm was miserly west of the Continental Divide, depositing only a few inches while more generous snowfall accumulated to the east, and will therefore form a deeper and more dangerous slab. Resting on slick, icy crusts or weak, sugary facets, these recent wind slabs and storm snow can be triggered in localized areas by travelers. Two recent avalanches are illustrative, both small, one near St Marys Lake on a steep south facing slope, the other near Berthoud Pass on a west facing slope. The second broke into older snow and ran a little deeper.
Oh! A gruesome visage in the best of times. And, while not the worst of times, the shallow snow leaves exposed the rocks and stumps of summer. The consequences, then, of taking even a small ride could be severe. With little hope for snow, the snowpack of days future will be riddled with rot; the corruption of facets, little strength to support even a small storm, and a few flakes—aye, a few—could set us up for interesting times to come.

Weather Discussion for 11,000ft Issued: 12/25/2011 12:30 PM by Spencer Logan
Clear, calm, warm, will be the weather today.
Trapped beneath a ridge of high pressure,
From California arcing all the way
Northeast to a South Dakota thresher.

Tonight the ridge will begin to flatten.
By tomorrow flow turns northwesterly,
For the coming week to be the pattern,
With weak storms passing by regularly.

The first goes too far north of us Tuesday,
Spreading over us naught but thin, high clouds.
The second arrives in the night Wednesday.
With it, mountain snowfall has better odds.

Great report with season cheer from the Avy center. Come one weds!

[gratzo]

Looking for a few inches Tue-Sat from Aspen on north, if things pan out OK. It's really tough to nail down the timing and intensity of any specific little storm ("wave") that moves through the fast WNW flow this week. There are hints that one wave on Friday into Saturday could be a bit stronger than the rest, but we'll have to see. At best, a few inches could fall for some ski areas and maybe better totals up around Buff pass and the northern divide around Cameron and RMNP (on the west sides).

[PowTrees]

well we always get the Jan thaw so 2 weeks of warm and sun is coming at some point.

Not so sure about this, the only thing that seems to be true about Colorado weather is the pattern is different every time, every year. I'd love to see some historical January numbers, would be curious to see if there were patterns.

Also wondering. If this is just the first week the pattern is forecast Not to split flow, significantly change? Why not more hope a better flow is starting? I had forgotten about split flows last year, but they're usually bad for Northern CO?

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

We will take it. I dont know if I have ever seen it this thin this late in the season at Vail. Rocks and shit all over the place.

I remember it being pretty ordinary in Dec 1998 (and in 1999 apparently, but I didn't go to Vail that year). CB is hurting as well. See below; yellow line is average, grey line is today. A far cry from last year. Am somewhat wishing I had a few Eldora days.

[volklpowdermaniac]

my butt hurts.

"this is totally loose butthole"


in all seriousness, just ski what's there, take them rock skis and go find some rocks, it's better than sitting at your computer and butthurting about the lack of snow. oh wait...

[funkendrenchman]

my butt hurts.

"this is totally loose butthole"


in all seriousness, just ski what's there, take them rock skis and go find some rocks, it's better than sitting at your computer and butthurting about the lack of snow. oh wait...

You're right... at least there is so little snow that the bumps aren't very big.

[Like a Boss]

A poem:

Learn to ski the tops of bumps,
As the troughs are grass, rocks, and stumps

[PowTrees]

I didn't think we were in worse shape than 2001-2002, but according to those numbers it's worse. Thx for sharing Blizzard of Oz, love comparing those numbers. There's still a lot left of the season and I still have hope we'll get into a wet period.

[Hott Butt Mud]

Here's pretty thorough Jan-Mar 2012 Outlook PDF from NOAA.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/bou/s...12_Outlook.pdf

[montanaskier]

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BE
SETTLING OVER THE ROCKIES...PROMISING A DRY START TO THE NEW YEAR.

MAYBE a couple of inches if we're lucky this week then back to dry for a week or so it seems. Temps look much warmer than they've been as well.

[Puffin]

Thanks blizzard. Those graphs really put everything into perspective. Didn't realize this is literally about as thin as it gets for this time of year. Just figured it was a bad one looking at my last 8 years here.

[Name Redacted]

This Madden-Julian bitch is the one causing our "La Nino" winter so far. Good news, it might be changing for the better.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/bou/s...12_Outlook.pdf

For the cliff notes, scroll to the last few pages.

[bean]

This Madden-Julian bitch is the one causing our "La Nino" winter so far. Good news, it might be changing for the better.

I'll believe it when I ski it. Until then, I'll be in montanaskier mode.

[PowTron]

I'll believe it when I ski it. Until then, I'll be in montanaskier mode.

Me too...

I have started saving a trip fund, and get my bonus in Late February. If the snow stays away from CO, I will be begging mags in the PNW and AK for couch space .