Real Estate Crash thread

[iceman]

Yeah I knew you'd be pissed, sorry but I just called it like I see it. Mea culpa.

[retirwntm]

oh, p.s. L2S - sorry about your dog. that sucks man. get a new woofer!

[skiballs]

Damn it, the popcorn is popped and you guys go all kumbaya, damn it.

[Art Shirk]

People don't eat pizza in Summit county?

[cramer]

The decline is due to delays in the foreclosure process as lenders work through foreclosure documentation problems that first surfaced last fall. Those problems prompted them to resubmit paperwork on many properties that had been slated for foreclosure and led to a slew of government investigations of the mortgage industry.

Mortgage banks also have put off taking action against newly delinquent borrowers in order to try loan modifications or other tactics aimed at avoiding foreclosure. Lackluster home sales this year also have provided little incentive for lenders to evict homeowners and chance having the property sit empty and unsold for months.

Thats all coming to an end. The squatters will either be getting a loan mod, short selling their house or be foreclosed on. We just hired 40,000 people to make sure this process is swift. You stop paying your loan, you will get a phone call and have that rep see you through the 3 processes i mentioned above. Gone are the days of squatting in your house for 2 years. Thank gawd. Its a bunch of bullshit im paying a monthly payment and dude accross the street hasnt paid a house payment in 3 years.

[meatdrink9]

I'm still playing the game out here in UT. I actually just closed my biggest deal yet this week (7 figures, he paid cash), but the motives for the buyer are probably more coming from a doomsday perspective than anything. He bought 50+ acres plus some water rights. He wanted a "land bank" to protect against a myriad of potential future financial threats. To me it makes more sense than gold as it's farm land with water. You can't eat gold if shit really hits the fan.

I also started doing my homework on VRBO properties as we have these hippy neighbors that rent out their house that way and they don't seem to work at all. They live in the basement and VRBO the top two floors. They cleared $6K last month and the summer is the off season. They cleared $4K off another place of theirs last month. I think I'm going to convert one of my longterm rentals into a VRBO and see how it goes. Does anybody on here have any experience with this?

[liv2ski]

I also started doing my homework on VRBO properties as we have these hippy neighbors that rent out their house that way and they don't seem to work at all. They live in the basement and VRBO the top two floors. They cleared $6K last month and the summer is the off season. They cleared $4K off another place of theirs last month. I think I'm going to convert one of my longterm rentals into a VRBO and see how it goes. Does anybody on here have any experience with this?

Meatdrink, do you really belief they made $6k renting out two floors (living units) for 1 month? Seems kind of steep for Ogden in the summer, but never having been there, I could be full of shit. I only say that as my zip code is prime summer VRBO territory. A few of my neighbors rent out their homes for July and August. We are about 10 blocks from the beach and the Hotel Del Coronado, so there are a lot of out of town visitors in Coronado during summer. A 3-4 bedroom home with pool will rent between $4-$6k per month depending on how nice it is. Most of the deals are handled by realtors that specialize in vacation rentals. So this is right up your alley. Not hard to do, just open a VRBO account and do a nice website. Shit, in the winter maybe I could rent a room for a month from you.

[meatdrink9]

They certainly didn't brag about the number and I think they've been keeping the VRBO thing under wraps to limit competition. The way I came up with the number is by looking at their VRBO listing. There is a calendar that shows what days it is booked or available. The rates are also published. I just multiplied the number of days it was booked by the rate and got that number. Obviously they have a lot of expenses to take away from that number, but I was blown away by how well they were doing. It is a large historic home that has been well remodeled. But I was still caught off guard. Summer is the off-season as well. Rates go up for the winter. I'd love to buy the historic place next to me and turn it into a VRBO for those types of returns. It's a very similar build to our place, but currently a 5-plex.

[Shredhead]

I've been getting ton's of interest in my lake house that's on the market. I fixed it all up and priced it right, but I think I'm going to get close to list. Sure, I won't get what I could have in 2006, but I think I'm only down about 15-20% off the top.
The market seems to be coming back in Aspen too! I think people with money will always want nice places?


I've also thought about VRBOing my historic house in Aspen at Christmas. If you rent less than 15 days a year, you don't have to pay any tax on the income.

[Game Over]

I'm still playing the game out here in UT. I actually just closed my biggest deal yet this week (7 figures, he paid cash), but the motives for the buyer are probably more coming from a doomsday perspective than anything. He bought 50+ acres plus some water rights. He wanted a "land bank" to protect against a myriad of potential future financial threats. To me it makes more sense than gold as it's farm land with water. You can't eat gold if shit really hits the fan.

farmland for $20k a acre?

[meatdrink9]

farmland for $20k a acre?

It actually went for $30K an acre, but most farmland nearby has been going for more like $18K per acre. This property has good commercial potential in the future due to it's location.

[ride550]

I also started doing my homework on VRBO properties as we have these hippy neighbors that rent out their house that way and they don't seem to work at all. They live in the basement and VRBO the top two floors. They cleared $6K last month and the summer is the off season. They cleared $4K off another place of theirs last month. I think I'm going to convert one of my longterm rentals into a VRBO and see how it goes. Does anybody on here have any experience with this?

I've been using VRBO with good results for my family's rentals in NM and CO for the last two years. About the hippies in Utah clearing 6k for one month.....its definitely possible, but note that a common vrbo tactic is to purposely make dates appear unavailable to give the appearance that the property is highly desirable. Also, those rented dates could be for personal use? Give it a try though, it has worked pretty good for us

[Hugh Conway]

its definitely possible, but note that a common vrbo tactic is to purposely make dates appear unavailable to give the appearance that the property is highly desirable. Also, those rented dates could be for personal use?

Heh. As a VRBO renter I've seen that and when emailed the dates magically "free up". classic sales scam

$6k sounds high but yields in Ogden seem absurdly high to me anyway. I go by this place http://www.vrbo.com/16097 regularly enough to see that they get a shedload of vistors - it's full much of the summer (~$14k/month), and they seem to have most weekends/holidays booked through the winter (~$5k) so it's possible for the right place.

[ass-to-mouth]

California really is the land of fruits & nuts. This asshole wants to ban foreclosures.

HousingWire

Friday, August 5, 2011

California man wants foreclosures deemed unconstitutional in the state

by KERRI PANCHUK

Thursday, August 4th, 2011, 7:31 am

A California man is on a mission to end foreclosures across his state, claiming an outright ban on the practice would force banks to help distressed borrowers.

In documents filed with California's secretary of state, Sacramento resident David Benson said he's trying to gain enough signatures – 807,615 to be exact – to get his foreclosure ban considered by voters across the state.

Benson wants to amend the California constitution, making homeownership a fundamental right.

His plan would require lenders to assist borrowers unable to pay for their homes due to financial distress and illness.

It also would force lenders to reduce a loan's principal amount to reflect declines in property value that go beyond 10%.

Benson's proposal says any "loan issued for and secured by a home or property by any lending institutions, loan servicers, mortgagee, trustees and beneficiaries doing business in the state of California, shall be able to be refinanced without credit review or penalty at minimum cost, within 45 days of being requested."

That provision would automatically apply if a borrower has maintained the mortgage for at least three years.

Anthony Laura, an attorney at Patton Boggs who reviewed the proposal, said the amendment "would have the opposite effect of diminishing, not enhancing, homeownership in California."

"While homeownership may be part of what many consider to be the American Dream, I have a hard time conceiving it as a constitutional right. Should this proposed amendment make it on the ballot and ultimately pass, it would only serve to discourage lenders from making mortgage loans in California."

Laura said without those mortgages, few people could afford homes.

[AdironRider]

Great idea. Good luck buying a house in California with any sort of mortgage. Cash only if that bill passes.

[liv2ski]

i am about to practice psychiatry without a license, so avada kedavra, or carpe diem or whatever.

i think L2S worked for one of the mortgage originators - in cali - maybe even actively participated in some of those liar loans (not calling you out, L2S) ninja loans, I/O's etc. maybe he was a loan broker or originator - is that accurate?

Funny, I haven't looked at this page for awhile and read from the top down and just noticed these comments. Yes, I have been in the mortgage biz since 1984. I never originated "Liar Loans" as when they came out in 2002, I closed down my mortgage company, as I saw personal liability all over these products (rarely if ever happened except for blatant fraud). Insted I have been in Wholesale Lending since that time, so ya, I have seen it all.
My business has been slower than shit for the last 4 years, so I spend most of my days reading financial, blogs, articles etc. It is all the shit that I read that has made me so pessimistic, not my experiences with the industry. As I stated in the Stock Market Thread in Polyasshat, my goal at this point is to save my dry powder to short the markets over the remainder of 2011. Once I am done with that, I will be looking to buy rental properties with my USD accts. So yes, while I think real estate is still got some down side in it, by next year I will feel better about RE than I do for the prospect of the USD long term. That said, rather than buying Gold, I will go with rental properties which I already own and know and hope for the best down the road.
You guys shouldn't hear as much from me after 8/15, as I will be very busy with a new job. My intend has been to be the other side of the conversation, as frankly, I feel most of you are fucking clueless (not you mtnwriter).

I think people are taking L2S a bit too seriously with his internet hobby of doomsday titillation.

Sure, it seems like the guy is a five-piece band stuck on one note, but come on, there is no indication he really believes any of the stuff he posts. He didn't sell his own real estate 50 pages ago in this thread, and he wouldn't sell it now even though prices are sure to go lower.

I don't think he has quit his profession for something else, or started stockpiling food, or picked up and moved to Canada, or even reined in the financial tastes of his family.

It's all just a bit of train-wreck watching, and hoping to see a bit more carnage before it's done.

Or, L2S truly believes the end of America is near, but is too scared to do anything about it because of his wife.

Eldo, as I mentioned above, my business has been slow for about 4 years now and three years ago I really did try to get my wife to sell everything down here and bug out. I had found a beautiful home in Lyons Bay and then was the time to make the change. Sadly, like many of you, she thinks I am bat shit crazy with to much free time to read shit that freaks me out. Now we are priced out due to higher Vancouver prices and a decline in the USD, so I have to sleep in the bed I was given. As far as not selling my present properties, at this point the damage is mostly done and it is mostly free and clear, so fuck it. At this point, I am train wreak watching for the most part, but still have very clear plans based on a variety of future outcomes.
Let me just say that when you love a girl that you have been with for 31 years, sometimes you just have to accept your financial losses to keep her as happy as possible. After all, you guys can tell I may be a hand full to deal with at times So I do everything else in my power to keep her happy.
When I have time to post financial BS, I will hang in P.A. so as to not rock the boat in the Padded Room anymore.
End blog

[Tips^Up]

The market seems to be coming back in Aspen too! I think people with money will always want nice places?

http://www.aspendailynews.com/section/home/148387

"County property value comes down nearly $10 billion"
The numbers, which total the most recent assessments all of the county’s 22,787 taxable properties, show $26.96 billion in local real estate value. That’s down from the $36 billion calculated in 2010.

[Tips^Up]

As far as the Colorado mountain resort areas I'm most intimate with, Summit and Eagle, both still have strong sectors. Residentially, second (or third or fourth...) homeowners are strongly fueling the $1M+ market. Summit's proximity to the Front Range makes it more easily accessible, both in drive time and in price, than Eagle County in general. Obviously everyone knows we're in a recession (not so much a double dip, we never really stopped receding) and buyers know we can demand ball-breaking prices. Sellers are typically still pricing their shit too high, then lowering the value in 6 mos, again in 7mos, 8mos, and so on, and by then, the market has already depreciated even further so their original listing price just seems outrageous by the time its actually considered by potential buyers.

In SummitCo, million dollars homes are a dime a dozen, condos with I70 views in Dillon can be had for less than $100,000. In EagleCo, Vail is Vail and big money is still big money. Recently saw an absolutely stunning 12,000sf house under construction. The buyers purchased a house for $8,000,000. And tore it down. Rumors are somewhere around $20M cost, truly a spectacular place. SummitCo doesn't have this type of high end. But in the Vail Valley, prices decline with the altitude.

The "locals" market in EagleCo (properties under $500,000 or so) had been pretty strong in the last 10 years as contractors raked it in hand over fist. It trickled down on everyone from the carpet retailer to the barista. Recession hit, construction dried up, inflated homes values collapsed ~30% from the peak to 2010 and have shown no signs of stabilizing or bottoming out. There appears to be an out-migration of "locals," decreasing population, as nearly every homeowner (besides the liquid billionaires) in EagleCo is badly underwater. Shortsales, foreclosures and REOs have become the market in many areas. However, high end international markets of Vail, BC, Bachelor Gulch, etc., have demand and buyers are looking for deals on new nice ski-in ski-out while most inventory is old stuff in need of a facelift. There is no sign of a bottom or stabilization and I'm having difficulty predicting future events that will turns things around.

That said, I have an offer on a shortsale with a deck on the river and 2-c garage in Eagle for 1/3 of what the original buyers paid in 07. Sellers should sign contract Monday, bank could take 2-3 months to make a decision (no guarantees on a shortsale). I'm cautious the market will keep deteriorating and included a clause to walk away with my earnest money in case my lowball offer actually seems high in 90 days.

Commercially, the mountains are generally fucked. Well located quality properties with solid revenues are still desired but prices are depressed and secondary locations are seeing huge vacancies (50+%). Existing tenants know (or at least should) that their landlord is desperate and should be demanding lower rent, better terms, months of free rent, tenant improvements, ball licking, whatever they want, or else they can move across the street where the new landlord is already grabbing his ankles.

Development land? Hahaha. Start with $0, subtract 10 years of taxes and carrying costs and that's about the value.

BTW- after 300+ hours of appraisal specific education, 3500 hrs of job experience over 2.5 years, I just passed the 8-hr Certified General Appraiser Exam for Colorado. That said, this information is just my personal opinions and observations and I'm kinda drunk right now so maybe just ignore it all. I am very proud my career is coming along, believe I'm on a solid path, glad I don't own any real estate!

(Edit- didn't intend to sound so smug in last line there, just reflecting that the past 2.5 yrs I have been paying attention to the RE market have been historically bad. Many good people are in trouble right now by events out of their control and for having made moves that seemed like good ideas at the time, and this truly sucks.)

[Benny Profane]

Thanks for that info. Summit is probably #1 on my list of places to buy in a few years. I've noticed about a 30% drop in properties I'm familiar with on Zillow (condos) over the last few years, but, it's still an expensive place compared to a lot of others out west. As you said, proximity to Denver probably does that, but, that's why I want to live there, too.
If the Republicans kill the second home tax deduction (I heard it was in this so called deficit reduction bill), then look out below ski condos if we're heading into Great Recession II. From what I read, you can't get a loan on a second home very easily, and HELOCs are gone as a source of cash, so, this may be the proverbial Wile E. Coyote moment for that market.

[LeeLau]

I owned two Ski VRBOs and inflated the rental dates. I wasn't the only one who did that. And those dates would magically free up like HC said.

I've been using VRBO with good results for my family's rentals in NM and CO for the last two years. About the hippies in Utah clearing 6k for one month.....its definitely possible, but note that a common vrbo tactic is to purposely make dates appear unavailable to give the appearance that the property is highly desirable. Also, those rented dates could be for personal use? Give it a try though, it has worked pretty good for us

Heh. As a VRBO renter I've seen that and when emailed the dates magically "free up". classic sales scam

$6k sounds high but yields in Ogden seem absurdly high to me anyway. I go by this place http://www.vrbo.com/16097 regularly enough to see that they get a shedload of vistors - it's full much of the summer (~$14k/month), and they seem to have most weekends/holidays booked through the winter (~$5k) so it's possible for the right place.

[liv2ski]

Will the US Downgrade Sink the Housing Market?
By Andrew Jeffery Aug 08, 2011 9:30 am
http://www.minyanville.com/businessm.../2011/id/36195

It won't help consumer confidence, which doesn't bode well. But if inflation is coming, more people will want income-producing properties.

"If political rhetoric were to be believed, a downgrade of US sovereign credit would lead to spiking interest rates, a dramatic economic contraction, and wide-scale financial chaos. It was an event to be avoided, seemingly at all cost.

And here we are.

Miraculously, however, the sun still rose in the east. Alarms blared, coffee brewed and traffic, as it's apt to do, ground to a halt. The world has not yet ended, but it is surely not the same place it was 72 short hours ago. Over the weekend, political leaders and banking chieftains huddled, preparing for calamity. They sent out soothing words, aiming to calm jittery investors. Markets didn't crash, but they are indeed teetering.

Meanwhile, the pundit class rushed to make its typical sage forecasts and deft assessments of S&P's downgrade. Predictions for bonds, equities, commodities, and pretty much every other asset class are opaque, at best. Consensus remains unsurprisingly elusive.

So what about housing? Commentators are now busily rehashing S&P's blunders in the years leading up to the collapse in property values, a shrill reminder that there once were firms called Washington Mutual (JPM), Wachovia (WFC), Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch (BAC). Residential real estate, like the rating agency's credibility, remains fragile.

Chief among housing market concerns is the degree to which the downgrade will damage consumers' already dour outlook for the economy. Today's housing market continues to be highly-sentiment driven, with conditions fluctuating week-to-week, even within individual markets. On the morning after the debt-ceiling agreement last Monday, the phones at my real estate firm were busier than they had been in weeks, with everyone from hedge fund managers to contractors expressing relief that with a deal struck, we could all get back to work.

Focus has now shifted to figuring out what this downgrade actually means. A dreary task for an already pessimistic group. Last month, the University of Michigan's widely watched consumer sentiment index slipped to its lowest level in two years. And employment, which is inextricably linked to housing, is really just a reflection of confidence. Given the vast uncertainty already stemming from Friday's historic downgrade, American consumers are not likely to be overly eager to embark on large-scale purchases. Like homes.

Second, persistently low interest rates have gone a long way to buoy home prices, enabling would-be buyers to either buy more house or at the very least keep housing costs under control. If US debt holders begin demanding higher interest rates for owning Treasuries, home financing costs would rise. And while this would bode poorly for home prices, the Federal Reserve, working closely with the Treasury Department, has given every indication that it will bankrupt the country before allowing market forces to push up interest rates in any material way.

The wild card in the interest rate equation is of course inflation. If prices, as measured by the Fed, move higher, policymakers may decide that raising rates is worth the economic (and political) risk. But in an inflationary world cash flows into assets, and housing is an asset. Specifically, income-producing property should fare well in a world of rising prices and rising rates.

Third, many housing commentators stubbornly cling to the notion that the backlog of foreclosed homes is due to flood the market at any time. I have discussed at length why this is a flawed assumption, that as long as not a single actor has an incentive to dump shadow inventory onto the market, it won't happen. If the S&P downgrade does in fact push the US economy back into recession, banks will be even less eager to take losses on (read: sell) repossessed homes.

Ultimately, the extent to which the downgrade impacts housing all boils down to confidence. And it can go one of two ways. If the past three years is our guide, S&P's downgrade will be seen as the latest in a string of defeats for a country that was once, economically and in many ways socially, held up as a model for first-world democracy. The loss of our AAA credit status, piled on top a deplorable political climate and real economic problems stemming from massive overleveraging, will plunge us deeper into our self-created financial chasm.

The other option, however unlikely it may appear, is certainly possible. And hopeful. The S&P downgrade could, after a period of volatile debate, be viewed in hindsight as a grand galvanizing event. That point at which the country was doused with ice water after a truly wicked hangover, shocked into the realization that there are consequences for our divisiveness and inability to face our long-term fiscal demons. And more importantly, as long as we blame someone else for our ills, we will be doomed to wallow in them.

The race is a bit too early to call. And while the smart money may be betting on the former, I'm silently placing chips on the latter. Call me a stubborn optimist".

I pretty much agree with what this guy has to say. In an environment where the USD continues to lose value on a world wide scale, inexpensive rental properties could be a great way to shelter some of your net worth if your down with the potential hassles of being a landlord. 2-4 unit properties usually cash flow better than 1 unit properties. If you can buy properties that cash flow with 20% down, the down side risk of further declines in value may be offset by having the tenants pay off the property for you down the road. Just an alternative idea to a weak stock market.

[schuss]

An interesting passage. They're just buying time with the low interest rates, hoping that business and investors will come around and generate enough value to take the pressure off. If interest rates spike now, we're definitely in for a double-dip, as you'll get some level of ARM resets and a housing market that looks like a wasteland.
I just listed my house, but I'm ending up renting it out as there's basically zero interest out in the market. I've had 2 showings in a month, and the pricing is in-line (if not cheap) with the neighborhood, and we've had a strong economy in NH compared to the rest of the country.

[Shredhead]

http://www.aspendailynews.com/section/home/148387

"County property value comes down nearly $10 billion"
The numbers, which total the most recent assessments all of the county’s 22,787 taxable properties, show $26.96 billion in local real estate value. That’s down from the $36 billion calculated in 2010.

Did you even read the article, that's assessed value. The assessor, Tom Isaac, had astronomical values on all properties. I appealed and got over 50% taken off my house.

"The unfortunate result of this was that in 2009, tax valuations were based on local values from mid-2008, just before the real estate bubble burst. So 2009 valuations actually showed a 40 percent increase over 2007. This led to a record number of appeals to the county board of equalization from homeowners seeking to lower their property values, and thus their tax bill"

Did some people loose money, absolutely. But I'll stand by my statement, I think the real estate market in Aspen proper is coming back.

[Benny Profane]

Enough with this obsession with inflation and hyperinflation. It ain't happening. Look what happened today. Are the "bond vigilantes" driving up interest rates? Nope. Quite the opposite. Everyone is rushing to treasuries for safety (come to poppa, benny sez, and drive up my bond funds, thank you). Has Japan had hyperinflation after two decades of zero interestand stimulant spending? Nope. This is all just gold bug propoganda, and now RE hype from salesman making up the only market out there - "investors".
Think: If we are heading into a second recession that will be worse than the previous, which is very likely, where will your rent money come from?

[schuss]

Enough with this obsession with inflation and hyperinflation. It ain't happening. Look what happened today. Are the "bond vigilantes" driving up interest rates? Nope. Quite the opposite. Everyone is rushing to treasuries for safety (come to poppa, benny sez, and drive up my bond funds, thank you). Has Japan had hyperinflation after two decades of zero interestand stimulant spending? Nope. This is all just gold bug propoganda, and now RE hype from salesman making up the only market out there - "investors".
Think: If we are heading into a second recession that will be worse than the previous, which is very likely, where will your rent money come from?

Even if we do get a bunch of inflation, that just makes RE more valuable and spurs US exports as our shit gets cheaper for everyone else, so it should self-correct somewhat rapidly. The only people left holding the bag is anyone holding a lot of USD, as well as some wage correction needed.