Real Estate Crash thread

[Benny Profane]

That's another reason we will not have inflation. Wages have gone nowhere, and will go nowhere. That spiral is in our history, but will not happen with such high UE.

[meatdrink9]

L2S, interesting read. Thanks for posting.

[Benny Profane]

Brilliant.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mo...the-forecloser

[meatdrink9]

I got pretty lucky this last week. On Tuesday we won an auction on the courthouse steps for two pretty awesome commercial buildings along Ogden's Historic 25th st. I don't know how this is really applicable to the thread, but since I've been posting my RE exploits for the length of this entire thread I figured I might as well.

I didn't sleep much at all for roughly 10 days leading up to the auction. It was by pure chance that I found out about the auction and pure luck that we'd sold a very large property a few days earlier. The lack of sleep was one part due to preparation (my first auction) and one part due to nervous energy. I thought for sure we would be quickly outbid, but I learned so much along the way I was OK even if all I came away with was knowledge of the process.

In the end we got 20,000+ sq ft of commercial space on the best street in town for less than 1/6th of its previous asking price. I'm pretty blown away. I still have to pinch myself every now and then. The plan is to restore the facade of one building and flip it for roughly twice what we paid for both. Then we'll retain the other and lease a portion and create a business to occupy a portion.

I was bidding against a total of 5 others at the steps. Probably 30 people came to watch. There were also 6 officers posted. I came in a T-shirt, shorts and Vans. I don't think anybody even thought I was there to bid let alone walk with them. You can see both buildings in the photo below. The red brick corner building and the tan hotel just in from it. I have a feeling this is going to be launch pad into bigger and better things (much like the first flips, back when I could get residential financing). I feel like I've been slamming my head against a rock for a couple of years trying to solve residential financing. I'd tapped out conventional residential financing long ago. What took me so long to go commercial is beyond me. Luckily a friend helped me clear away that blind spot.

[4matic]

That's awesome Meat. Your dealings are one of the coolest things on this site.

[LeeLau]

well done! I participated but did not win a Repo and indeed its a nervewracking experience. Good job on getting a good deal

[liv2ski]

In the end we got 20,000+ sq ft of commercial space on the best street in town for less than 1/6th of its previous asking price. I'm pretty blown away.

FNKA Meat. Job well done

[montanaskier]

funny story about auctions: My sister was coming out of a bad marriage and decided to auction her house which my dad had recently completely remodeled. My dad was at the auction with the idea of bidding first to get things going and then maybe another bid to help drive the price up some. 300 people showed up for the auction. My dad opened the bidding.........and nobody else bid. My dad won the auction! DOH

[skiballs]

[QUOTE=meatdrink9;3331566]thought for sure we would be quickly outbid, but I learned so much along the way I was OK even if all I came away with was knowledge of the process.

County and state codes , sewer & water ' look's like you,ve become a player in town .

Next move pollyass office , for you .

" Senetor Meat had this to say , that cliff ....................

[highrustler]

I got pretty lucky this last week. On Tuesday we won an auction on the courthouse steps for two pretty awesome commercial buildings along Ogden's Historic 25th st. I don't know how this is really applicable to the thread, but since I've been posting my RE exploits for the length of this entire thread I figured I might as well.

I didn't sleep much at all for roughly 10 days leading up to the auction. It was by pure chance that I found out about the auction and pure luck that we'd sold a very large property a few days earlier. The lack of sleep was one part due to preparation (my first auction) and one part due to nervous energy. I thought for sure we would be quickly outbid, but I learned so much along the way I was OK even if all I came away with was knowledge of the process.

In the end we got 20,000+ sq ft of commercial space on the best street in town for less than 1/6th of its previous asking price. I'm pretty blown away. I still have to pinch myself every now and then. The plan is to restore the facade of one building and flip it for roughly twice what we paid for both. Then we'll retain the other and lease a portion and create a business to occupy a portion.

I was bidding against a total of 5 others at the steps. Probably 30 people came to watch. There were also 6 officers posted. I came in a T-shirt, shorts and Vans. I don't think anybody even thought I was there to bid let alone walk with them. You can see both buildings in the photo below. The red brick corner building and the tan hotel just in from it. I have a feeling this is going to be launch pad into bigger and better things (much like the first flips, back when I could get residential financing). I feel like I've been slamming my head against a rock for a couple of years trying to solve residential financing. I'd tapped out conventional residential financing long ago. What took me so long to go commercial is beyond me. Luckily a friend helped me clear away that blind spot.

You best buy a Powerball ticket while lady luck is on your side. Unreal meat!

[liv2ski]

Buying is cheaper than renting in most U.S. cities
cnnmoney

Les Christie, On Tuesday August 16, 2011, 6:07 am EDT

Home prices have taken such a beating and demand for rental units has increased so much that it's now cheaper to buy a two-bedroom home than to rent one in most major U.S. cities.

According to real estate web site Trulia, buying was cheaper than renting in 74% of the country's 50 largest cities in July. In just 12% of the cities, including New York, Seattle and San Francisco, renting was cheaper. In the remaining 14% of cities, renting was less expensive but close to the cost of buying.

In addition to a continuing decline in home prices, rock-bottom interest rates have added a lot of weight to the buy side of the scale. The overnight average rate for a 30-year fixed was just 4.19% on Monday, according to Bankrate.com. A 15-year fixed averaged just 3.43%.

Add in the tax perks of home ownership and for those who can afford it (and who can actually qualify for a loan), it certainly is a buyer's market.

"It's a personal decision, of course. But if you have a steady job and you are planning to stay for seven years or more and have enough cash to put 20% down and enough left over for seven or eight months of expenses, you're better off buying in most places," said Daisy Kong, a spokeswoman for Trulia.

Top buyer's markets

Las Vegas offered the most compelling buy-side math, Trulia's survey found.

Prices there have plunged more than 59% from their August 2006 peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

The median price of a two-bedroom, two-bath condo or townhouse is about $60,000, according to Trulia, a ratio of only six times the median annual rent of a similar rental apartment, which is $9,700.

Monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced Vegas condo would come to only $256 on a 30-year, 5% interest loan. Even factoring in property taxes and common charges of roughly $300 a month, the monthly amount is still much lower than the $810 in monthly rent they would pay on a similar place.

Detroit, according to Trulia, is another metro area where buying is better. The median price for a condo or townhouse is about seven times annual rent. Home prices in Mesa, Ariz. and Fresno, Calif. also clock in at seven times rent.

Arlington, Texas, Sacramento, Calif., Phoenix and Jacksonville, Fla. all had buy-rent ratios of eight, Trulia said.

Top renter's markets

Even though rents average $2,980 a month in New York, sorry Benny (the highest of any of the 50 markets), it's still the best city for renters, according to Trulia's survey.

Paying for the same kind of two-bedroom Manhattan apartment would cost 36 times as much, nearly $1.3 million.

One surprising place where renting is cheaper is Ft. Worth, Texas; buying exceeds renting costs by 32 times. Part of the reason is there are relatively few condos in the city and they tend to be upscale and costly. That, combined with low rents of about $9,500 a year, make renting cheaper.

Big money towns

Omaha, Neb., where buying is 27 times annual rents, Seattle and San Francisco, which both clock in with purchase prices that are 24 times rents, and Kansas City, at 22 times rents, are other places where renting makes financial sense.

Should you rent or buy?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Buying...&asset=&ccode=

Obviously good news for those who live in areas that have been crushed value wise, yet still have high proportional rents. If your young, doing well at work and want to stay where you live, with these low rates, some areas have compelling reasons to buy. Shit you can move and likely rent it for enough to cover the PITI. Just food for thought.

[liv2ski]

So much for optimism

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of people who bought previously occupied homes plunged in July. The third decline in four months suggests the depressed housing market won't help the U.S. economy recover this year.

Home sales fell 3.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.67 million homes, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That's far below the 6 million that economists say must be sold to sustain a healthy housing market.

And this year's pace is lagging behind last year's total sales. The 4.91 million last year were the weakest sales figures in 13 years.

Falling home prices have kept many people from selling their houses and taking new jobs in growing areas. They have also made people feel less wealthy and that has reduced the consumer spending that drives about 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

Bigger down payments, tougher lending rules, high debt and a shortage of desirable starter homes have kept many would-be buyers away. Even some with good credit and enough money for a down payment are holding off because they are worried home prices will keep falling.

Since the housing boom went bust in 2006, sales have fallen in four of the past five years. Declining home prices and super-low mortgage rates haven't been enough to boost sales this year.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 4.15 percent this week -- the lowest level on records dating back to 1971.

Wealthy buyers are still purchasing homes prices at more than $1 million in the affluent Northeast and growing Midwest. And investors are scooping up dirt-cheap homes in the battered South and West for less than $100,000. Investors are targeting deeply discounted homes in hard-hit areas, such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa, Fla.

Foreclosures and short sales -- when a lender agrees to sell for less than what is owed on a mortgage -- make up an increasingly large portion of home sales. A wave of foreclosures is being held up, either by backlogged courts or lenders awaiting state and federal probes into bad foreclosure practices.

Even homes that are under contract are falling apart before the sale is closed. The Realtors' group has noted that an increasing number of deals have been canceled because appraisals came in below a negotiated price, scuttling home loans in the process.

Re-sold homes are a bargain compared with new homes. The median price of a new home is more than 30 percent higher than the median price for a previously occupied home. That's twice the normal markup.

Most economists say home prices will keep falling, by at least 5 percent, through the rest of the year. Many forecasts don't anticipate a rebound in prices until at least 2013.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-s...&asset=&ccode=

[Brock Landers]

Low rates!

Anyone know where I can get an IO loan with nothing down? Im good for it

[retirwntm]

brock,

have you tried 2008? try an awesome company called countrywide. tell angelo i sent you.

[sneekyjesus]

Meat, how about turning that into a cheap hostel so all the ski bums have a nice place to crash?

[beaterdit]

FKNA nice work J!

I follow your dealings with much interest and hope to be a postion half as goo das yours someday, maybe even IN Ogden. Sorry I haven't been able to make any of your events this summer, been workin a lot.

[meatdrink9]

Thanks guys, there were an awful lot of planets aligned to pull that one off and I can't take credit for much of it. Just in the right place at the right time with the right background.

Skiballs, no politics for me. I'd rather ski. And my views are too out there for the mainstream.

Sneekyjesus, I already have that set-up to some degree for maggots I've known for a few years.

beaterdit, no worries man. I'm sort of obligated to throw those parties being part of the First Friday Art Stroll. Let me know if you're ever up this way I'd be happy to show you around.

We actually got a call from the mayor last week and had a meeting with regard to the buildings. That was pretty crazy. I can't go into all the details, but the city is definitely stoked the past owner is gone and they're stepping up to the plate in ways I hadn't even thought of to help with the buildings. Pretty cool. I've got 3-4 big hurdles in front of me, but I'm hoping to open the first bar with a roof deck in Ogden before too long.

[Benny Profane]

This is something. Maybe the Reno people could chime in about his choices. Cheap, cheap, cheap. I did a quick search on Zillow, and a practically brand new home can be had (smallish) in the low 200s, and that's just retail. Odds are, if you shopped for a foreclosure or a short sale, you'd get a 30-40% discount. And Squaw and Alpine just merged. Soon, soon.....


http://www.businessinsider.com/new-y...ce=patrick.net

[iceman]

A while back, a couple that I knew from school got married. They're both native New Yorkers, born and raised in the city. Tony (the husband) took a job in Nashville and they moved down there. She was on the phone to her father gushing about what you could get for a house for short money in that area. Her father, a crusty old New York Irish guy, said "Yeah, but when you get up in the morning and open the front door, where the hell are you? Nashville, for god's sake!"

[Phineas]

sweet link IceMan! http://www.100thww2.org/combat.html

[Benny Profane]

A while back, a couple that I knew from school got married. They're both native New Yorkers, born and raised in the city. Tony (the husband) took a job in Nashville and they moved down there. She was on the phone to her father gushing about what you could get for a house for short money in that area. Her father, a crusty old New York Irish guy, said "Yeah, but when you get up in the morning and open the front door, where the hell are you? Nashville, for god's sake!"

Yeah, that's the rub. My girlfriend has an even more blunt reaction to the idea of Reno. And she's generally polite.

That crusty old Irish guy probably bought his house in the sixties, and paid it off so long ago he can't remember. He ain't paying my rent.

[liv2ski]

Benny, I have been following the Truckee area market for the last year and have seen a few things I liked in the low $400k and some places I loved for $600k-$700k. That said, many of these homes are 40%-50% off their 2006 highs. Do I still thing it is going down in 2nd home areas, yes I do. If Reno is as close as you can get to your dream, I hope it happens for you sooner than later.

Edit: BTW, I am only looking at CA as my wife refuses to leave it forever. If it was a girlfriend, pffffttt, I would have moved to Utah so fast her head would still be spinning trying to find me. Ask Meatdrink, there are some nice homes in Ogden for less than $100k and the skiing is off the hook In the summer, come down to San Diego, rent a room or a place and have a great time til the snow starts flying again.

[BFD]

Tye 1on got me following the Driggs, Victor market. Things are cheap. In 1986 I bought in the Palmer,AK. area for $25 a sq. ft. 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch. There are a shitload of these in this part of Idaho and Wyoming. haven't quite hit the $25 bar yet. I don't know if they will. I am pretty sure I am going to make an offer on a condo in the $50 sq ft range maybe lower. Just trying to find time to get down there. Hate to open the door and realize I'm in Nashville. What I learned in AK in 1986 was banks don't like to own empty houses in the winter.

[4matic]

Bought a house for the girlfriend and her parents. Her money>my credit. Some risk. Investment loan at 4.375% with no points. Sale price $279k. I'm thinking about another investment property for myself. Rents are strong in my area. We paid a little more for this one because it's on a quiet cul-de-sac with good neighbors.

[iceman]

Trying to get my wife's head around the concept of buying more real estate, I'd like to dial back our market involvement a bit for a while. She's not listening.